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NCAA Football Week 5 - Analysis, Predictions and Odds

NCAA Football Week 5 - MAC's Analysis, Predictions and Odds
2021 College Football National Championship Odds + Pick
Clemson +200 Alabama +400 Georgia +2000 LSU +10000 Notre Dame +4000 Florida +1200 Oklahoma +2800 Texas +4000 Auburn +6600 Texas A&M +5000 (MAC's Power Pick) Miami (FL) +8000 Oklahoma State +10000
MAC's NCAAF Red Alert Action - 10/03 - No. 13 Texas A&M (1-0) at No. 2 Alabama (1-0)
When: Saturday, Oct. 3, 2020 at 3:30 PM ET Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL TV: CBS Spread: Alabama -17 Money Lines: Texas A&M +605 / Alabama -855 Total: 51.5
Texas A&M Team Leaders - Touchdowns: Ainias Smith 1 Rushing: Isaiah Spiller 117 Passing: Kellen Mond 189 Receiving: Caleb Chapman 40 Sacks: Micheal Clemons 1.5 Interceptions: Leon O'Neal Jr. 1
Alabama Team Leaders - Touchdowns: Najee Harris 3 Rushing Najee: Harris 98 Passing: Mac Jones 249 Receiving: Jaylen Waddle 134 Sacks: Labryan Ray 1.0 Interceptions: Thomas Fletcher 0
Quick Trends: Aggies are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Aggies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Aggies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games. Aggies are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games on grass. Crimson Tide are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 conference games. Crimson Tide are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Texas A&M busted up Vanderbilt 17-12 last weekend as quarterback Kellen Mond aired it out for the small 189 yards and got himself a touchdown. A&M running back Isaiah Spiller grabbed himself the small 117 rushing yards in the unwatchable low scoring game.
Alabama smacked up Missouri 28-19 Bama quarterback Mac Jones passed for 249 yards and put 2 in the end zone, while running back Najee Harris put in his 98 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns. This week both teams meet up for a good ol boys SEC game in Tuscaloosa.
The Aggies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games, but on the flipside 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Alabama has gone 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October, but just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 conference games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record.
The Tide can go get it done but reports coming in from our affiliates are ambivalent to give all those points away on the road at best, our consensus is going with Texas A&M to cover the chalk mainly because of the edge at quarterback.
MAC's Game Prediction: Alabama 31 Texas A&M 27 Play: Texas A&M +17
10/03 - No. 18 Oklahoma (1-1) at Iowa State (1-1)
When: Saturday, Oct. 3, 2020 at 7:30 PM ET Where: MidAmerican Energy Field at Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, IA TV: ABC Spread: Oklahoma -7.5 Money Lines: Iowa State +210 / Oklahoma -260 Total: 62.5
Quick Trends: Cyclones are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Cyclones are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Cyclones are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog. Sooners are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Sooners are 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Sooners are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Sooners Team Leaders: Touchdowns Seth McGowan 2 Rushing Seth McGowan 134 Passing Spencer Rattler 677 Receiving Marvin Mims 111 Sacks DaShaun White 2.5 Interceptions Delarrin Turner-Yell 1
Cyclones Team Leaders: Touchdowns Breece Hall 4 Rushing Breece Hall 257 Passing Brock Purdy 356 Receiving Xavier Hutchinson 69 Sacks JaQuan Bailey 3.5 Interceptions Mike Rose 1
Oklahoma ran through Missouri State 48-0 in their opener, then hit a wall on Saturday with a depressing 38-35 loss against K-State as a insanely obnoxious 28-point favorite. Quarterback Spencer Rattler some how passed for 387 yards with four touchdowns even with 3 costly interceptions.
Iowa State laid down against Louisiana Lafayette in their opener, and bumbled a cover against a suspect TCU team, final 37-34 as 3.5-point road favorite they should have had no problem with a soft line like that. Quarterback Brock Purdy got off 211 yards 1 touchdown, running back Breece Hall got 154 yards and 38 attempts and 3 trips to the end zone.
The Sooners are paying the books at 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall has Vegas building skyscrapers with bettors money, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games, I mean these guys are a bunch of bums when it comes to getting the money. Now if you've been putting your action on Iowa State as a underdog you've made some cash, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home dog, 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up loss, I mean these guys are a golden egg if you play the line right.
MAC is setting the standard and putting the business on the table, sharps and early money aren't making a dent in the line because oddsmakers made a tight one this week. MAC's looking at Spencer Rattle as the x factor, if he steps up this could very well be a easy win + cover for the Sooners, Iowa State is getting the 7.5 and MAC smells something fishy about the hook, play the over set at 62.5 up from 61.5 and don't be scared to give the points because Rattler will look like a stud this week against a mediocre Cyclone D. watch "Brock Purdy Lips" gets manhandled by DaShaun White.
Iowa State Injury Report - T. Milton WR - Ques Sat - Milton was unavailable for the previous game due to a lower-body injury and it is unknown if he will line up versus Oklahoma on Saturday. R. Hudson OL - Ques Sat - Undisclosed T. Downing OL - Ques Sat - Downing missed the last game with an ankle injury and his status for Saturday's contest against Oklahoma remains up in the air.
MAC's Game Prediction: Oklahoma 45 Iowa State 24 Play: Over 62.5 Play: Oklahoma -7.5
No. 7 Auburn (1-0) at No. 4 Georgia (1-0)
Auburn made bacon out of the boys down in Kentucky 29-13 last weekend to cash in as a 6.5-point home favorite, big Bo Nix passed for 233 yards with 3 touchdowns, no interceptions, and looking like a god damn stud averaging 6.8 rushing yards a game, MAC would let his daughter and mother date a guy like this, and they got wide receiver Seth Williams coming in catching six passes for 112 yards 2 TDs.
Georgia looked like decent, getting through Arkansas 37-10 last weekend was impressive but not really, QB Stetson Bennett threw for 211 yards with 2 touchdowns and surprisingly no picks. Georgia scored 22 third quarter points to take control after going into the half down 7-5, now that could be good football but MAC is saying fluke and calling shenanigan's.
When: Saturday, Oct. 3, 2020 at 7:30 PM ET Where: Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA TV: ESPN Spread: Georgia -6.5 Money Lines: Auburn +200 / Georgia -250 Total: 45
Auburn Team Leaders - Touchdowns D.J. Williams 1 Rushing Bo Nix 34 Passing Bo Nix 233 Receiving Seth Williams 112 Sacks Daquan Newkirk 1.0 Interceptions Roger McCreary 1
Georgia Team Leaders - Touchdowns Zamir White 1 (MAC's #BumAlert Prospect) Rushing Zamir White 71 Passing Stetson Bennett 211 Receiving Kearis Jackson 62 Sacks Nolan Smith 1.5 Interceptions Richard Lecounte 2
Auburn gets the money early in the season and has gone 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall, 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 October games, but be cautious because Bulldogs are money makers too, 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games against a team with a winning road record.
The Tigers just can't get through Georgia and have sucked against the spread going 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Georgia and 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Now MAC would normally stay away from a game like this but it's hard to bet against big Bo Nixon and that up tempo offense. Georgia -6.5 is a suckers bet, take those points and ride Bo's back like the rest of the Tigers!
MAC's Game Prediction: Georgia 17 Auburn 27 Play: Auburn +6.5 Play: Under 45.5 (Get That Hook)
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College Football

Looking to bet up to 5 oz generic per game, unless otherwise stated. I only bet with established bugs. If odds are different than what's listed, let me know in the comment and we'll agree to the new odds.
First Half Bets
Michigan State vs Michigan -14, I want Michigan State +14 u/cofosir
Iowa State vs Kansas +16.5, I want Kansas +16.5
Mississippi State vs Alabama -20, I want Mississippi State +20 for 8 ozs
Indiana vs Rutgers O/U 27, I want the over
Central Florida vs Houston O/U 42.5, I want the under
Lsu vs Auburn, O/U 33.5, I want the under
Full Game:
Michigan State vs Michigan -24.5, I want Michigan State +24.5 for 3 ozs u/cofosir
Oklahoma vs Texas Tech +14, I want Texas Tech +14 for 3 ozs
Appalachian State vs Louisiana-Monroe +31, I want Louisiana-Monroe +31
Money line:
Michigan State +1250 vs Michigan, My 2 ozs on Michigan State vs your 25 ozs on Michigan
Indiana vs Rutgers +320, My 3 ozs on Rutgers vs your 9.6 ozs on Indiana
Ohio State vs Penn State +350, My 3 ozs on Penn State vs your 10.5 ozs on Ohio State u/campb029
Iowa State vs Kansas +1600, My 2 ozs on Kansas vs your 32 ozs on Iowa State
Missouri +375 vs Florida, My 4 ozs on Missouri vs your 15 ozs on Florida
Rules: Games must go a complete four quarters for full game/money line bets. Any game postponed more than 48 hours is canceled, unless both betters agree to the move. Overtime points count for O/U bets. If you have any other concerns, let me know before locking in.
submitted by Addictedtocoins to silverbugbets [link] [comments]

Film review: why does Vegas like Jamie Newman's Heisman chances?

If you look at Vegas’ 2020 Heisman odds, the two names at the top of the list need no explanation: Justin Fields (7/2) and Trevor Lawrence (4/1). The third name, however, likely requires a pause from more casual college football fans: Jamie Newman (10/1).
Transferring after a strong 2019 showing at Wake Forest, quarterback Jamie Newman has clear hopes of emulating the success of Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, Justin Fields, and other recent transfer QBs. So what was it about his 2019 performance, and how that fits into Georgia's new offensive schemes, give Vegas oddsmakers enough confidence in Newman to give him the third best odds of winning college football’s most prestigious individual award?
Newman caught my eye last year when I would randomly flip through Saturday noon games, and it was clear to my casual viewership that he was operating at a different level from everyone on his team (except for possibly Sage Surratt). Now that Newman is the presumed starter of a team that fully expects to compete for a Playoff berth, I’ve conducted a deeper dive into Newman, evaluating his strengths, weaknesses, and his projected fit in what Todd Monken’s offense may look like.
Specifically, I watched his performances against Utah State, UNC, Boston College, Louisville, Clemson, NC State, and Michigan State: certainly not every 2019 snap, but more than enough to render an informed judgement. Additionally, I’m not projecting any impacts from COVID-19 in this post (i.e. impacts of shortened spring ball to learn the new offense, shortened season, etc.).
After watching his performance in those six games, what was my conclusion?
TLDR: Newman is a strong armed passer who is a perfect fit for Todd Monken’s Air Raid offensive philosophy, and he’ll likely put up prolific passing numbers. If you’re optimistic in how Monken will utilize Newman’s athleticism, and equally optimistic that Newman can adapt to playing against more talented defenses week-over-week, Newman’s preseason Heisman odds are justified, and he will put himself in Heisman contention early and has an outside shot at following in the footsteps of Mayfield, Murray, and Burrow as transfer QBs turned Heisman winners.

Strengths:

Athleticism

While Georgia has enjoyed a relatively strong run of quarterbacks over the last decade and a half, the Bulldogs have not had a truly mobile quarterback as their full time starter since...DJ Shockley? Fortunately, Newman will change that.
Athletically, Newman profiles as a Cam Newton-lite prospect, demonstrating speed and elusiveness required to generate long gains, while possessing the strength to fight for tough yardage. Wake Forest fully utilized Newman’s legs, giving him the ball more than 10 times in over 75% of his starts last season. In three games, he carried it over 20 times. Many of these were short-yardage situation runs, so Newman’s yardage / YPC stat line won’t impress, but clips like the below demonstrate what Georgia can expect:
As shown, Newman has the speed to rip off long, explosive gains, but will also power through defenders. There is some risk with this second strength, as Newman suffered a shoulder injury directly because of dropping his shoulder at the goal line against Louisville.
For this reason, Georgia would be wise not to use Newman as heavily as Wake Forest given their other offensive talents, and Monken historically has not used QBs in the running game (more on that later). With that being said, Newman’s athleticism is too strong an attribute to ignore, and if Monken and the Bulldogs are smart, they’ll fully utilize designed QB runs and option plays a core component of their 2020 offense.

Vertical passing threat

Newman’s physical strengths don’t end with his legs, as he possesses a similarly impressive arm. Not only can Newman make every throw and drive the ball downfield, he can do so accurately, with his downfield passing ability being the highlight of the Wake Forest offense. To provide a few examples:
When you watch the above clips, you should be able to notice Newman’s ability to hit receivers in stride and/or place the ball in positions advantageous to the receiver, even at depths of twenty plus yards. Such throws were infrequent in Georgia’s offense in 2019, and while I’d attribute that more to former offensive coordinator James Coley than I would Jake Fromm, Newman should be a marked improvement in this category and projects as the best vertical passer the Bulldogs have had since Stafford. I’ll discuss more below, but Monken’s Air Raid background pairs perfectly with Newman’s arm talent, and I fully anticipate more highlight throws like the above in Athens this season.

Keeps the chains moving

Newman’s isn’t just your stereotypical talented, athletic QB prospect: he’s a fully developed passer. Specifically, Newman already processes at a high level and possesses the short-yardage and intermediate accuracy required to keep the chains moving on crucial downs.
First, Newman was equally accurate in short-yardage and intermediate areas as he was when attempting deep passes. As Newman transitions to facing tighter coverage on a weekly basis than he did in the ACC, this skill should translate and enable him to keep the ball-moving without being overly reliant on his legs or the vertical passing game. A couple of examples:
Second, while I’ll highlight how this can be a negative at times, Newman demonstrated an almost Stoic presence on the field, with no noticeable drop off in pressure situations.
On this first clip against Louisville, Newman is facing third and long with his team trailing early. The defense only rushes three, so Newman uses the provided time to scan through his reads before finding a receiver downfield and throwing a dagger to pick up the first down and moving the chains.
On this second clip against Michigan State, Newman faces pressure up the middle, stands in the pocket and takes a hit from two different players as he releases the ball, finding his tight end wide open downfield for a touchdown. As I’ll show below, Newman too often stood in the pocket when facing pressure, but the silver lining is when doing so, Newman kept his eyes downfield and could generate plays if defenses generated pressure at the expense of leaving holes in coverage.

Weaknesses:

Despite athleticism, statue-esque in the pocket

While many athletic college quarterbacks are often knocked for being too quick to leave the pocket, Newman has the opposite problem: under pressure, he’s Stoic, at times to a fault. If Georgia fans were hoping that their new athletic quarterback would reverse their trend of statue-esque signal callers, they’ll likely be disappointed.
For comparison, see the below clips of current college quarterbacks using their legs to escape pressure, extend the play, and make a significant downfield passing play:
While Newman is more athletic than any of the quarterbacks shown above, when you watch Newman’s film, you’ll be hard pressed to find anything comparable. The above plays are highlights for their respective quarterbacks, yet they’re within the realm of what should be expected from an athletic, talented quarterback like Newman. Despite his athleticism, once he drops back, Newman rarely ever uses his legs to effectively extend plays or make those “something-out-of-nothing” plays we’ve seen from great college QBs over the past decade.
In particular, Newman displayed an odd habit of developing cement feet when facing pressure from the interior. When pressured from the edge, he occasionally scrambled, but when the pressure came up the middle via blitzing linebackers or defensive lineman driving his blocker backwards, he almost always refused to move, either throwing the ball away or simply accepting an avoidable hit. A few examples:
Again, compare how Newman reacted to pressure (not moving, occasionally throwing the ball away) to how other top-level college quarterbacks responded (rolling to their left or right, keeping their eyes downfield, completing the pass).
I’m not exactly sure why Newman has this problem. He’s obviously highly athletic, so that’s not the limiting factor. It may be general poor pocket awareness, but given that the issue is particularly noticeable when the pressure is coming right up the middle, in full view, it almost seems that Newman is intentionally choosing to stand tall and take the hit. Further complicating the issue is that in the bowl game against Michigan State, Newman finally did begin to use his feet to extend plays in a few situations, implying that he’s not locked into these Stoic, statue-esque dropbacks. This is pure speculation on my part, but I almost wonder if Newman was coached to stay in the pocket to the point of detriment, and with a new coaching staff, this can be corrected.
Either way, what does Newman’s statue-esque dropbacks mean for Georgia offensively? The Bulldogs will be replacing multiple starters on the offensive line, and will face off against multiple defenses filled with four and five star pass rushers. It’s inevitable that Newman will be pressured and need to extend plays, but it’s unclear whether he’ll actually do so, or if he’ll continue to refuse to leave the pocket and take avoidable, drive-killing hits and sacks.

Fuck it, I’m going deep

Similar to how Newman’s Stoic pocket presence is both a strength (when he gets the ball away for a completion despite pressure) and a weakness (when he could extend a play but chooses not to), Newman’s frequent downfield lobs will be a strength (when his receiver beats his man) and a weakness (when there’s another defender in the area, or the corner is able to get his head around and make a play on the ball).
Newman will be accompanied by more offensive talent than he had in Winston-Salem, but he'll equally be facing off against better defenders and defensive coordinators on a weekly basis in the SEC. Newman is a risk-taker who trusts his receivers to make plays on the ball, and by competing against more talented defenses, those risks are magnified.
Newman’s tape versus Clemson best exemplifies some of the issues he’ll encounter facing off against more talented secondaries. In this first clip, Newman fakes the screen and clearly locks onto a receiver running deep. Unfortunately for Newman, a Clemson defender is playing underneath and makes an easy interception.
In this second clip, Newman throws his trademark one-on-one deep lob. Unfortunately again, Newman is targeting an NFL-caliber cornerback in AJ Terrell. Unlike many of the cornerbacks he faced, Terrell has the awareness to get his head around and makes a play on a slightly underthrown ball. Facing off against the likes of Alabama’s Patrick Surtain II, Florida’s Marco Wilson, South Carolina’s Jaycee Horn, and possibly LSU’s Derek Stingley Jr., Newman will have to adapt to corners playing more like AJ Terrell did in the clip above than some of the other corners featured in his other highlights above.
Given Monken’s offensive philosophy and Newman’s passing habits, Bulldog fans should expect a few frustrating, Brett Favre-esque “fuck it, I’m going deep” interceptions, particularly early on as Newman learns the skill level of the defensive backs he’s targeting. Whether this tendency will be just an early season speed bump or a debilitating factor will be seen.

Projected Fit

The immediate good news is that Newman’s strong arm and ability to place the ball downfield is a perfect fit for Monken’s Air Raid background. While I don’t necessarily believe we’ll be seeing Georgia going full Air Raid given how their offensive roster is structured and Smart’s conservative nature, Monken previously summarized his offensive philosophy, and it’s a perfect fit for Newman’s strengths, specifically his ability to drive the ball downfield with accuracy:
“I’ve always thought, we don’t need more 5-yard plays. Who needs more 5-yard plays? How can we be explosive? That’s what the game is about, man. Big plays. I like big plays. So how do we not figure out ways to get explosive plays? That’s fun. That’s fun to me in football.”
In 2019, Newman amassed 2868 passing yards and 26 passing touchdowns (missing one start vs Florida State). For comparison, see the chart below showing starting QBs under Monken over the last five seasons. Simply put, quarterbacks rack up yardage under Monken, and for Newman, a passing stat line similar to Mullens last year with Monken is a realistic outcome.

Year Team QB(s) Passing yards Passing TDs
2015 Southern Miss Nick Mullens 4476 38
2016 Tampa Bay (NFL) Jameis Winston 4090 28
2017 Tampa Bay (NFL) Jameis Winston / Ryan Fitzpatrick 4607 26
2018 Tampa Bay (NFL) 5358 36
2019 Cleveland (NFL) Baker Mayfield 3827 22
What’s unclear is how Monken intends to use Newton’s athleticism. Historically, Monken has not used quarterback runs as any significant element of his offense. Only J.W. Walsh, who Monken coached as Oklahoma State's offensive coordinator in 2012, had any meaningful rushing contribution from the QB position under Monken, accumulating 290 yards and 7 touchdowns that year. The next best rushing performance by a QB under Monken was Jameis Winston’s 281 yards and one touchdown in 2018. Overall, neither stat line compare to what we've seen from athletic quarterbacks at the collegiate level, and would be disappointing numbers for an athlete of Newman's pedigree.
The silver lining is that Monken is at least saying the right things since arriving in Athens, stating that he’s more focused on adapting to his players rather than dogmatic application of a specific style. Newman’s athleticism supports his usage in designed QB runs and read option packages. While Monken does not have a history of using designed QB runs in his offense, if he really intends to adapt to his players, that will require such runs becoming an offensive staple.

Summary

Overall, Georgia should be extremely excited in Newman’s arrival. He is the most physically talented starter they have had since Matthew Stafford, with the added strength of being highly athletic. For Bulldog fans who still rue Justin Fields’ transfer, Newman is an equally talented and similarly built quarterback.
Specifically, Newman’s strong arm and ability to place the ball wherever needed means Georgia should be able to maintain the offensive efficiency enjoyed with Jake Fromm, while adding a true vertical passing element to their passing game. Given Monken’s Air Raid background, I fully expect Newman to rack up passing yardage and put up prolific numbers over the course of the season. Newman’s legs will add another new and dynamic tool to the Bulldog offense: exactly how Monken will use this tool is unclear, as historically QB runs have not been a feature of his offense.
At the same time Newman displayed a frustrating tendency to never leave the pocket on designed passing plays, and he’ll take more hits than necessary, which could result in closer games or even potentially game-altering sacks. Newman also places a lot of trust in his deep ball placement and the ability of his receivers to win their matchup: against more talented SEC defensive backs, some of those plays may switch from receptions to incompletions or interceptions.
Newman projects as an All-SEC caliber quarterback, and if he can avoid unnecessary sacks and interceptions, he should fully be capable of leading the Bulldogs to Playoff contention. Does he have what it takes to become a true Heisman contender?
Monken’s Air Raid offense is designed and has a history of putting up significant yardage and scoring points: given Nick Mullens’ success under Monken at Southern Miss, if Newman can simply match that statistical output, that should be sufficient to put him in contention: eclipsing 4000 yards, as Mullens’ did his junior year, is mark only four SEC quarterbacks have ever crossed.
Additionally, Newman will be playing for a clear top ten (likely top five) team that will demand national media attention for the duration of the season. The Bulldogs’ have games scheduled against Alabama, Auburn, Florida, all of which will likely be at least Top 25 matchups, if not Top 10 matchups, and any of those games may end up as the marquee matchup of their weekend. Should Georgia beat out Florida (and less likely, Tennessee) for the SEC East title, Newman will be provided another significant platform via the SEC Championship Game to demonstrate his worthiness.
All in all, even in the best case scenario for Newman, the odds are stacked against him winning the Heisman. Even so, he has a clear case to quickly find himself in contention: he’s a physically gifted quarterback who has already demonstrated his ability to operate at a high level; he’ll be operating in an offense designed to rack up yardage and scoring opportunities; he’ll be playing for an elite team that will demand national attention throughout the season and will have multiple high-visibility matchups to build his case in front of national audiences. While Lawrence and Fields will rightfully dominate preseason discussions, Vegas currently has Newman with the third-best odds (10/1) to win the award, and when you consider the above, that feels right.
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u/letmeassumeurgender's 1rd with trades and a 1st pick twist

I have one big twist in my mock. Just kind of a for fun, quarantine fueled, project a blend of weird twists but mostly what I would do. Also, my first mock so I'd love to hear where I'm way off.
Edit: missed the bills trading the vikings their 1st. Need a vikes fan to tell me who they would want there. Edit 2: adjusted CIN-CAR trade to remove cin 2nd Also important note this mocks motivation is WHAT IF the Bengals don’t see Burrow as their FQB.
(CAR sends C. McCafferey + Pick 7 + 2021 1st to CIN for Pick 1)
  1. Carolina Panthers – Joe Burreaux QB LSU
Panthers jump up to grab their OC’s man as they look to continue what was fairytale level of performance at LSU. In the process all they have to do is give up a RB (albeit a MVP caliber one) before his next contract. A tough pill to swallow for a team losing its two faces (Cam) this offseason, but imo the right move. They lose a first next year but gain the first pick of the second round this year. The new regime starts out bold.
The Bengals fans leave equally disappointed, but add an exciting piece that the fanbase needs and honestly deserves. Of course the real motivation here is not acquiring Mixon a running mate. The Bengals had entirely too long to overthink Burrow and fear the single year of success. Questioning everything from talent around him to arm strength and even age, they opt for the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes the guy they’ve really been drooling over since last year. They pick up a mid-range 1st next year as tank insurance.
  1. Washington Redskin Potatoes – Tua Tagovailoa QB Alabama
Yeah, Chase Young is cool, but… take it from the OSU alum who ordered a Pumpkin Spice Latte before turning around and seeing the man in the campus Starbucks line behind you was Chase Young. Yeah they called my name out and screamed Venti Pumpkin Spice Latte for Cole, to which I put my head down in shame shuffled pass the behemoth of a man to grab my drink and go. Oh, I’m also a Browns fan. I remember when we only won one game and earned the right to Myles “The Assailant” Garrett. We grabbed a DE who is pretty freaking awesome (No, you can’t have him) and proceeded to win 0 games. Then Baker and all of sudden people spoke the dreaded p word. The QB position matters infinitely more. I remember screaming at Buffalo Wild Wing’s DON’T TAKE WATSON TAKE GARRETT to the screen. Yeah, they should’ve taken Watson.
Anyways, Tua. He can play, he’s shown that. Maybe they can shake a 2nd out of the Pats for Haskins?
  1. Detroit Lions – Chase Young DE tOSU
Matt Patricia really struggles to make this pick. Chase Young has everything… almost. He just lacks that pedigree that the Lions are looking for. Sure OSU is an okay school and has produced a few okay DE’s, but Chase Young has never played for the Patriots, regardless they suck it up and take him. He truly is the best player available and fits the need well. Since the draft will be silent because of Covid-19 you won’t hear any Lions fans cheering when the redskins draft Tua, but there will be some rocking living rooms in Detroit as the TTUN fans take Chase Young to the dark side.
(LAC send Pick 6 + Pick 37 to NYG for Pick 4)
  1. Los Angeles Chargers – Justin Herbert QB Oregon
Apparently the Chargers like Herbert. The current plan in my estimation is Tyrod for 2.5 weeks and then Herbert leads them to a TNF second half comeback vs. the Jets. Sounds oddly familiar for some reason. Not much explaining to do here. They have to jump Miami to ensure they get their guy. The Chargers need a QB much more than they need Isiah Simmons despite how freaking awesome that D would be. ;)
Giants take the slight overpay and move back what amounts to one pick since they know exactly who the Chargers are taking.
(ARI sends Pick 8 + 2021 2nd to MIA for Pick 5)
  1. Arizona Cardinals – Jedrick Wills OT Alabama
Arizona knows they need to give Kyler a bit more time to throw to that one guy they tricked BoB into trading away. They jump over the Giants to get the best lineman in this draft. Not only is Wills the best lineman in this class, he is also very young. The only somewhat negative you can say about the kid is that he is a RT (even though he could probably learn LT). That will be just fine for AZ.
Miami is reeling at this point. They take future assets as it looks like the plan is being pushed back a year. Unfortunately after FA and Flores being the worst coach (for a tank) I’ve ever seen. I’m not sure this team is bad enough to compete for Trevor or Justin.
  1. New York Giants – Andrew Thomas OT Georgia
I hate this pick. As a Browns fan I despise this pick. As much as I’d love to see Gettleman go BPA and take Okudah or Simmons, he knows what he has in Daniel Jones. He also knows his job depends on Daniel considering that was HIS GUY. As a result this move is all about setting Daniel up for success with some quality protection. I really, really hope he fools himself into thinking Becton is the choice, but he won’t. This is the right move.
  1. Cincinnati Bengals – Tristan Wirfs OT Iowa
The Bengals need O-line help. They are doing things in reverse order from the Giants. The goal here is ensure the line can protect their guy immediately and avoid dropping a prized pony into a bad spot for the first time in their career. I’m looking at you Clemson and OSU lineman. We’ve seen what bad lines can do to young QB’s who have always had good ones *cough* Baker *cough* The Bengals avoid letting those bad habits develop for their Star next year. For bonus, it gives the team an insane rushing attack with a good line, McCafferey, and Mixon.
(NYJ send Pick 11 and a 2021 2nd to MIA for pick 8)
  1. New York Jets – Mekhi Becton OT Louisville
After seeing three tackles go already, the Jets get desperate to jump the Browns and get some much needed line help for Darnold. They overpay slightly, but they know it’s the only shot to get a tackle as Becton is the only blue chipper left. An absolute beast of potential. Hope it works out for the Jets. I think Jets fans should be cautiously optimistic here.
The Dolphins will eventually pick a player I promise, but at this point the GM has walked backwards into a surplus of assets. The Dolphins are smart enough to realize they can get a free second and still get one of Okudah, Simmons, Jeudy or Lamb.
  1. London Jaguars – Jeffrey Okudah CB tOSU
And with the quickest selection in NFL draft history the Jags take their heir to Ramsey.
Can’t get any easier than this. With the defensive exodus the Jags need to bring in some more players on that side of the ball. Okudah is BPA which I think the Jags will stick to fairly strictly. If not they could grab a Jeudy/Lamb and try to build around some mania.
  1. Cleveland Browns – Isaiah Simmons LB Clemson
This is generally the pick for those few freaks at browns who think the Browns should do something other than get a tackle. Now that makes sense. The Browns need S/LB help more than anything besides OT of course. Here comes a beast of a player who falls into their lap. Rejoice Browns fans! Right? No, I said this about the Peppers pick the SS/LB hybrid this high is a huge waste of an asset. Granted Simmons is a much better player than the spicy boy was. I guess the Browns can hope for a Derwin James here, and I hope that I get a raise tomorrow for doing such a good job staying at home. Personally I wanted Okudah a lot more even think the Browns have two great/good young CBs. I just see a ceiling of Ramsey+Bouye+Chris Harris Jr. out of Okudah+Williams+Ward. Sour grapes because 9 is the absolute floor for Okudah. Anyways back to this Browns’ nightmare draft.
  1. Miami Dolphins – Jerry Jeudy WR Alabama
The Dolphins picked a player! They get their guy out of Bama. Oh wait, they get their other guy out of Bama. Jeudy will serve to be a fantastic partner for Parker who decided he wanted to not be bad recently. Again this team is about to add some real weapons/depth and get its next QB off to a running start. (I know it’s not Tua but Jeudy and 2 2nds next year is pretty cool)
  1. Las Vegas Raiders – CeeDee Lamb WR Oklahoma
Are Raiders fans sick of seeing this pick? Or do they just get a little more excited each time they realize this is DEFINITELY going to happen. The Raiders can’t roll out their team with no WR1 (or really even WR2) again. Thanks AB. Gruden will love this dude. He is a beast of a weapon and should make Carr look like a player who belongs starting in the NFL again. Need I say more? Get excited Raiders fans.
  1. San Francisco 49ers – Henry Ruggs III WR Alabama
This team is obviously not far off at all. It kinda makes me mad that they are picking here after the newfound disgust I have for them after that embarrassment of a game vs. the Browns. Did you know you can re-watch that game for free right now? YOU CAN. I think I’d sooner buy that produce that was definitely touched by at least 100 people in the grocery store before me. Anyways they have a nice little luxury pick here. What team doesn’t want an explosive weapon to open up their offense to another degree? Think of all the speed on this team and think of how tough it’d be to stop the run and protect the middle from Kittle with this freaking little bugger on the outside zooming past everyone? Gross. Don’t think Tyreek and Chiefs here, think Brown and the Ravens. I think that’s a bit closer, regardless great pick.
  1. Tampa Bay Super Bowl Championeers – Joshua Jones OT Houston
Tom Brady is old. Tom Brady is not going to avoid pressure all that well. Jones is an accomplished blocker especially in pass sets. Let’s be honest, we know they want to throw the ball this year. They won’t do anything dumb like draft a RB here. They can just sign Gordon or if the sun decides to shine on Cleveland sign Hunt away from us for a second. Brady will need the time to throw to his mouth-watering duo of WRs and Joshua will help them get that. Also side note, Bucs what’re you doing?! sign back Perriman!
(DAL sends Pick 17 and 2021 3rd to DEN for pick 15)
  1. Dallas Cowboys – CJ Henderson CB Florida
Cowboys hop Atlanta for who they believe is the best DB available. CB is more valuable than safety. Also I don’t think they will go Chaisson. I think the draft community thinks a bit too much of him. Now back to Henderson. I’ve seen a lot of people who really don’t want to see him go to their team. Not sure why. Love the kid, great man coverage abilities. I view him similar to a Greedy Williams with less red flags.
  1. Atlanta Falcons – Kristian Fulton CB LSU
Such an all-around player. The Falcons do get hopped for a CB but I’m sure they can live with an extremely consistent player. He just doesn’t scream all-pro potential but it’s the middle of the first you’re looking for starters who can reach a pro bowl or two and this kid is that. Falcons need to get better on the back end if they want to compete in their division, which I can’t wait to watch.
  1. Denver Broncos – Jalen Reagor WR TCU
I’d wager a guess the Broncos wanted Ruggs fairly badly. I still think they go with WR and Reagor is a solid player. It is interesting to think how we might view the two prospects if we could see Ruggs in TCU’s situation and Reagor in Alabama’s system. I think we’d all be a bit higher on Reagor. This pick still scares me with all the unknown. The Broncos are undaunted and roll the dice on a talented player.
  1. Miami Dolphins – Xavier McKinney S Alabama
Remember when the Dolphins traded Minkah away? Their pass defense remembers. Miami gets a second versatile defender to add to an interesting secondary. Xavier is a safety, not exactly a value position but I’d be surprised to see them add more to the D-line this early in the draft after that FA class. The O-line pool is looking a bit dry, and I don’t think theyre bold enough to double dip on WR here. McKinney will do whatever Flores tasks him to do and he will do it well. I love the player just not the positional value.
  1. Las Vegas Raiders – Derrick Brown DI Auburn
I’m sure Gruden is loving the way the draft is falling for him this year. Maybe they will surprise us with their picks like last year. But in this scenario they don’t do anything weird. They grab the best player available stopping his slide. How did he end up all the way down here? Well every year it seems like there is always that one player right? I have it being Derrick Brown. Great player excellent at what he does well, but how high is too high to pick a run stuffing D lineman? Raiders need someone to help stop the bleeding on D and I think a player like Brown does just that. Huge win here for the Raiders.
  1. Jacksonville Jaguars – Javon Kinlaw DI South Carolina
Oh wow this idiot knows DTs exist after all. Yes, yes, Kinlaw comes off the board here. A player who should be exciting to watch. A great penetrator and PFF darling. I think that he fits exactly the kind of player that Jacksonville has sought after in the past. He should be very exciting to watch on that retooling D-line. Leaving with Kinlaw and Okudah should really reinvigorate that shell of a great defense.
  1. Philadelphia Eagles – Grant Delpit S LSU
I can’t believe they let Jenkins walk. That is just madness to me. They need to plug that hole or Philly risks a second secondary situation. I would’ve like to go receiver here but I just don’t think they will. I think a tackle is within reason here too should they see potential in one of the guys left. Back to Delpit. A great center fielder who is falling victim to early peak to his hype. It seems to be the trend to crap on him, and I really don’t see why. Sure not a great tackler, but the value he brings is in instincts and coverage. The kid I think will end up providing some value similar to Malik Hooker.
  1. Buffalo Bills – K’Lavon Chaisson EDGE LSU
Tools guy. Tons of burst/athleticism. Some games he played better than others but that tends to be the story of the EDGE position. The Bills D gets a bit scarier and I think an interesting combo with some of the athletic monsters on that team. I don’t think there is much do here on offense I just don’t really like any running backs this high but I think a star back would be good for them. I like the fit here though. Buffalo adds some speed.
  1. New England Patriots – Zach Baun LB Wisconsin
I’m not really sure I love Baun, but for some reason, this just feels correct. He feels like a Patirot or a Steeler. The versatility is great and I think he has a large amount of potential. I can see Bill saying this is my guy. We know the magic he can work with linebackers. Not a sexy pick but helping retool the D and keep it close-ish to the level it was last year.
  1. New Orleans Saints – Laviska Shenault WR Colorado
Versatile weapon. I also don’t really love him but some people really do. Maybe they are more creative than I am. So is Sean Payton. I would rather go CB here with Gladney, but I think the Saints are a bit too desperate for some help for cantguardmike. Sorry fantasy owners Shenault is here to diversify that offense.
  1. Minnesota Vikings – Denzel Mims WR Baylor
One receiver out another receiver in. I really like the fit here too. Great foot speed despite the limited route tree at Baylor. He is also a great contested catch player which happens to be similar to what just left that offense. I think they have obvious needs at corner here, however I think they need to keep the weapons multiple or that O is gonna come to a screeching halt if too much focus comes down on Cook.
  1. Miami Dolphins – Patrick Queen LB LSU
A player I’m a bit too high on I think. I really love the kid but there are so many concerns I have too. Huge boom or bust player but I think this is exactly the type of Defense he needs to get to. I also think he is the player that’s going to make this D special. It will take more pieces still but his impact will be felt. The speed he presents will be crazy. The kid will be everywhere, well everywhere he thinks he should be. Still a bit or a lot raw, just have to bear with him.
(KC sends Pick 32 and a 2020 3rd for SEA Pick 27)
  1. Kansas City Chiefs – Kenneth Murray LB Oklahoma
The Chiefs do the AFCN a HUGE favor and leap the Ravens for Kenneth. The Chiefs don’t really have too many needs but that D needs to continue to improve. Murray will help with athleticism. A player who is so explosive and seems like what the Chiefs are doing on offense. I like the addition of him to their current unit and think he should breathe life into that D as such a different level of energy player.
The Seahawks and trading down. Just had to do it. They have some obscure player they want and we all know we won’t be taken in the next few picks.
  1. Baltimore Ravens – A.J. Epenesa
Quite honestly I think he would be a bust anywhere else, but I think he will be regarded the same way Judon is soon. Just a technician who seems like a poor man’s Joey Bosa. The scheme there is what really won for Judon according to PFF. All that being said this man is in line to receive the keys to the kingdom in the sense like Judon he is gonna go off in terms of production even if his talent doesn’t match. Now I think a player like Chaisson would be disgustingly good in this role Epenesa will do the job too. I’m just happy they didn’t get Chaisson, Queen, or Murray.
  1. Tennessee Titans – Marlon Davidson DL Auburn
Just gets it done on the line. Hard to say where he will play but with some vets leaving this line inside and out I think he slots in to both spots with a defensive head coach who is minded to maximize his potential. This dude is a dude. An absolute man. And I think that kind of think will appeal to Vrabel quite a bit. He is a people mover even if not a real pass rusher, Landry can fill that role.
  1. Green Bay Packers – Justin Jefferson WR LSU
I think Green Bay gets their guy. Rodgers just needs some more weapons and I think they’re getting a huge steal. Talk about a great fit for a player moving from Burreaux magic to Rodgers magic. He has a nack for just getting open in and out of phase. Draft this kid in fantasy if he goes here.
  1. San Francisco 49ers – A.J. Terrell CB Clemson
A longer corner. A fluid athlete. A succession plan and copy-cat for Richard Sherman. If the 9ers can get Sherman to rub off on this kid I think they’re getting great value. This team is in position and shows shown a tendency to build on strengths. Looking at you Bosa. I think they will look to the future with this pick.
  1. Seattle Seahawks – John Molchon G Boise State
Oh Yeah? Like you freaking know who the hell the Seahawks are gonna pick.
I’m completely kidding about this pick though. I would probably take Yetur Gross-Matos here and try and get some actual rush from that line. Bank on his development and go for BPA/ highest potential available. That feels a bit too obvious for the Seahawks doesn’t it though? So yeah the center from SMU or something.
submitted by letmeassumeurgender to NFL_Draft [link] [comments]

Weekly SEC Discussion Thread

Hello everyone, welcome to Week 6! The SEC schedule.....kinda sucks this week!
SEC Standings
East
Team SEC Overall
Florida 2-0 5-0
Georgia 1-0 4-0
Missouri 1-0 3-1
South Carolina 1-2 2-3
Tennessee 0-1 1-3
Vanderbilt 0-2 1-3
Kentucky 0-3 2-3
West:
Team SEC Overall
Alabama 2-0 5-0
Auburn 5-0 5-0
LSU 1-0 4-0
Miss State 1-1 3-2
Texas A&M 1-1 2-2
Ole Miss 1-1 2-3
Arkansas 0-2 2-2
In The Polls:
Team AP CP /CFB
Alabama 1 1 1
Arkansas NR NR NR
Auburn 7 7 7
Florida 10 8 10
Georgia 3 3 4
Kentucky NR NR NR
LSU 4 5 5
Mississippi NR NR NR
Mississippi State RV RV RV
Missouri RV n/a* RV
South Carolina NR NR RV
Tennessee NR NR NR
Texas A&M 25 21 RV
Vanderbilt NR NR NR
* Missouri is ineligible for the Coaches' Poll due to NCAA sanctions.
WEEK FIVE REVIEW
Has a new contender emerged? Auburn's 56-23 absolute beatdown of Mississippi State this week firmly enters the Tigers into the conversation for the SEC title - and they're in the centerpiece of week 6 too (see below). Elsewhere in conference action, Alabama flirted with trouble against Ole Miss before Tua and DeVonta Smith both set school records in a 59-31 blowout. Texas A&M had the scare of the season against an Arkansas team coming off a loss to San Jose State but survived 31-27. South Carolina thoroughly dominated Kentucky 24-7, putting both teams at 2-3. South Carolina hopes they've righted their ship, while UK has very pressing concerns on offense. Florida shutout a top-10 Towson team, and Vandy got their first win of the season against Northern illinois.
Conference games:
Home Away Score
Arkansas Texas A&M A&M 31-27
Alabama Ole Miss BAMA 59-31
Auburn Miss State AUB 56-23
South Carolina Kentucky SC 24-7
Out of Conference:
Team Opponent Odds Time TV
Vanderbilt Northern Illinois VAN 24-18
Florida Towson 38-0
2-0 OOC this week, 30-9 on the year.
WEEK SIX SCHEDULE
A bit of a lowkey week in the SEC. Alabama, South Carolina, Miss State, A&M, Arkansas, and Kentucky are all on bye for the first week of October. The highlight of the schedule is Auburn-Florida, a top-10 matchup that should help determine who is the biggest challenger to the top trio of Bama, Georgia, and LSU right now. Elsewhere in conference play: Georgia visits Tennessee and Vandy visits Ole Miss. Georgia fans are organizing a campaign to "checker Neyland" red & black, so we'll see how Vol Nation responds to such a challenge. The Commdores are looking for their first conference win, and Ole Miss is likely fighting for bowl eligibility vs. Vandy. Out of conference, two Tiger teams play G5 teams known to be plucky vs P5 competition. LSU hosts Utah State hoping to end their one game losing streak vs. Aggies, and Troy visits Missouri hoping for their first SEC win since upsetting LSU in 2017.
SEC matchups:
Away | Home | Odds | Time | TV Auburn| Florida||3:30 PM|CBS Georgia| Tennessee||7:00 PM|ESPN Vanderbilt| Ole Miss||7:30 PM|SECN
OOC:
Team | Opponent | Odds | Time | TV Missouri| Troy||4:00 PM|SECN LSU| Utah State||12:00 PM|SECN
HOT & COLD:
Again this section is for notable takes from past threads, either good or bad!
From week 2:
MisterHavercamp: God, I sure hope this Hilinski kid can sling it
Early returns are....yes!
LOUDNOIS3S: Remember when we were picked to finish behind Tennessee, South Carolina, AND Missouri? I member.
I would hold the laughter for just a second, 0-3 in SEC play Kentucky.
From week 4:
midnite_train: Am I the only one that feels like Florida and SC are far better teams now with their backup QBs?
This is yet to be determined, but seems to be pretty prescient!
From week 5:
Kanin_usagi: Gonna play a close game against Mississippi State and confuse everybody here we go
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOPE.
vanala: Every game we play against an above average defense will be close until Nix gets better. Just the way it is.
Spoiler: He got better. 16/21, 335 yd, 2 TD. Game was not close.
Redcup476: BAMA CANT HANDLE PLUMLEE
Jokes or not, Bama is inevitable.
Barack1922: Mississippi State surprised me last week, they reloaded pretty well. I thought our game would have been a lot closer. I could see them potentially upsetting Auburn. Shrader is really poised; scary for a freshman.
They did not upset Auburn. Shrader was....fine, but was still ahem a freshman.
AUfromthaBOOT: I’m thinking that after last year’s game, we may get no-holds-barred, no-fucks-given Gus. He may try to hatefuck MSST like he does to Arkansas.
The margin was at one-point 49-9. I do not think Gus truly gave any fucks.
solariangod: I have resigned myself to losing for the 6th time in a row to Kentucky, and I don't think it will even be close.
Well you're half-right, it wasn't close.
GUESSING GAMES
Last week:
Q. Which team will have the most penalty yardage in Week 5? The penalty yards stats might help out.
A: A perfect tie! Ole Miss and Vandy both committed 9 penalties for 97 yards.
The winner is grlink115 who guessed Ole Miss. Special shout to jcurlee98 for the specific prediction that was off by 82 yards! (prediction: Arkansas for 130 yards, reality: 48)
Q. What will the combined points scored by the Tiger teams be? Potential bonus points if you post a second answer that includes Towson.
A. I was an idiot an included this question in a week when LSU and Missouri were on bye....but here we go. Auburn scored 56 points, and Towson scored a fat 0.
The winner is reauxga on both counts in terms of pure magnitude but also for calling out my idiocy in forgetting Mizzou and LSU last week.
pieisgood186 did tie for closest for the SEC tigers question, AND correctly guessed Towson would score zero points so they'll be getting bonus points as well.
Q. There are 10 total spreads and oveunders listed above. Assuming that a "win" consists of a favorite covering or an over hitting, guess the total record of the odds above. Example: SC beating Kentucky 34-31 would count as 2-0, as the listed favorite and over both hit.
A: Vegas shows its true wisdom by going a perfect 5-5!
Game|Odds|Score|Result Ark v. A&M|A&M -23 o/u 57|A&M 31-27|1-1 Bama v. OM|Bama -35.5 o/u 61.5|BAMA 59-31|1-1 Aub v. MSST|Aub -11 o/u 47.5|AUB 56-23|2-0 SC v. UK|SC -2.5 o 50|SC 24-7|1-1 Vandy v. NIU|VAN -6.5 o/u -54.5|VAN 24-18|0-2 Total|||5-5
No one got a perfect 5-5 tie. Thus, the split winners will be OrangeEarPlugz, reauxga, and Grlinko115.
OrangeEarPlugz was bold and predicted specific events as follows:
  • A&M over Arkansas NO COVER TRUE
  • Alabama over Ole Miss NO COVER AdFALSE
  • Auburn over Miss St COVER TRUE
  • South Carolina over Kentucky COVER TRUE
  • Northern Illinois over Vandy OUTRIGHT WIN FALSE
  • Florida over Towson TRUE
For their 4-2 record, and 3-2 record in non-bullshit picks, OrangeEarPlugz will get bonus points in my final pool.
Additionally, though they got none of the guessing games right, jcurlee98 predicted the following:
  • Arkanas covers TRUE
  • The under hits in AUB/MSST FALSE*
  • Vandy-NIU under hits TRUE
jcurlee98 will get bonus points for this
This week:
  1. In the marquee matchup of Auburn v. Florida, guess the following: 1) Lee Corso's pick 2) which team gains the most yards, 3) the winner.
  2. Let x = 104, the number of points Tennessee has scored so far this season. Let's add onto x whatever Tennessee scores vs. UGA this week. Now let's double x (i.e. if they're shutout, x = 208). Consider x as a yardage oveunder - do the Vols outgain that number vs. Georgia? Bonus points - guess x within 10 yards.
  3. OUT OF CONFERENCE SPECIAL! The following 2019 starting QBs used to play in the SEC:
  • Jacob Eason, Washington, plays @ Stanford
  • Justin Fields, Ohio State, plays Michigan State
  • Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma, plays @ Kansas
Guess the total (pass + rush) TDs accounted for by these QBs in week 6. Bonus points if you can name another former SEC QB that scores a non-zero amount of points for a non-SEC team.
submitted by brobroma to CFB [link] [comments]

Eliminating Contenders To Find A Winner For The 2019 NCAA March Madness Tournament

Eliminating Contenders To Find A Winner For The 2019 NCAA March Madness Tournament
The NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament is upon us once again and as always I will be breaking down 5 ways you can eliminate some top seeds from consideration. In picking potential final 4 teams and champions I find it much easier to eliminate teams from consideration to narrow down the selections. The criteria we will use to do this are as follows
  1. Preseason AP Rankings vs Current Rankings
  2. 3 Point Shooting
  3. Points Per Game
  4. Coaches Success
  5. Scoring Margin
1. Pre Season AP Rankings can predict tournament success
The following comes from a Nate Silver article in the NY Times before the 2011 tournament.
Since the tournament field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, there have been 41 cases in which a school that was unranked to start the season entered the tournament ranked in the A.P. top 10 (excluding a couple of cases where the team was ineligible for tournament play). These schools, as you might expect, were seeded highly: eight were No. 1 seeds and another 17 were seeded No. 2. Absolutely none of these teams have made the Final Four, however: they are 0-for-41. Instead, they have been the victims of some notorious upsets, like the No. 2-seeded South Carolina Gamecocks losing — by 13 points! — to the No. 15 seed Coppin State in the opening round of the 1997 tournament, and the No. 3 seed Wisconsin Badgers being one of Davidson’s victims in 2008. Three of the No. 1 seeds that fit this description — Michigan in 1985, St. John’s in 1986, and Cincinnati in 2002 — lost in the Round of 32.
Since this article, I have kept track of all qualifying teams.
2011 Notre Dame (2) lost in 2nd round to Florida 2012 Florida State (3) lost in 2nd round to Cincinnati 2013 Georgetown (2) lost in 1st round to Florida GC 2013 Miami (2) lost in 3rd round to Marquette 2014 Villanova (1) lost in 2nd round to Uconn 2014 Iowa St (3) lost in 3rd round to Uconn 2015 Maryland(4) lost in 3rd round to Kentucky 2015 N. Iowa (5) lost in 3rd round to Louisville 2016. Xavier (2) lost in 2nd round to Wisconsin 2016. Oregon (1) lost in Elite 8 to Oklahoma 2016. West Virginia (3) lost in 1st round to Stephen F. Austin 2016. Miami (3) lost in 3rd round to Villanova 2017. Baylor (3) lost in the 3rd round to South Carolina 2018. Virginia (1) lost to 16th seed UMBC in its first game 2018. Michigan (3) lost in the championship game
The record is now 1-55 for these teams to reach the Final 4. Last season Michigan became the first team to buck this trend. They did so by miraculously getting out of the rd of 32 game against Houston. Houston had a chance to go up 4 with a few seconds left but missed 2 FT's and Michigan answered with a 30 ft 3 point shot at the buzzer to win by 1. A painful game for me as I had Houston in a rather large Calcutta style pool.
Here are the preseason rankings for 2018-19
Current Teams in the top 10 not ranked in the preseason
3W Texas Tech
2. 3 Point Shooting
The 3 pt shot has become extremely important in both the NBA and college basketball.
Since 2007 no team who shoots under 30% from behind the arc has won a game in the tournament.
No teams qualify this season
Since 2007 only 5 teams shooting under 33% from 3 have made the elite 8. If you are not going to shoot the 3 well then you need to defend it well. In 2012 both Louisville and Ohio State made it to the final 4 with sub 33% 3 point shooting but both defended the 3 as good or better than they shot it. Louisville gave up 30.3% from 3 and Ohio State 32.5%. 2015 Kentucky was sub 33% but they defended it well at 32.5%. 2016 North Carolina broke this trend a bit with a poor 3pt shooting team that gave up 36% from 3.
Teams to be leery of 1E Duke - 30.2% 8E VCU - 30.7% 13E St. Louis - 30.8% 16E UNC Central - 31.1% 16W Prarie View - 31.5% 10E Minnesota - 32.1% 3E LSU - 32.3%
What is interesting here is how many teams in the East bracket are on this list including the number 1 overall seed Duke. When we look further into the numbers Duke is the 9th best team in the country at defending the 3 at 29.3%. Potential 2nd rd matchup VCU also defends the 3 really well. They give up 27.6% from behind the arc which is 3rd best in the country.
  1. Points Per Game
Playing defense is great but you will need to keep pace with great offenses come tournament time.
80 Teams have scored 73 PPG or less coming into the tournament and had a 1-4 seed. 11 made the final 4 with no champions.
Three seasons ago there was a change in the rules. The shot clock went from 35 to 30 seconds. This has caused more possessions and as such higher scoring. The average ppg per team since 2010 are as follows
2010-11 : 68.28 2011-12 : 67.25 2012-13 : 66.72 2013-14 : 70.10 2014-15 : 66.76 2015-16 : 72.29 2016-17 : 72.57 2017-18 : 72.98 2018-19 : 71.77
Scoring has increased by about 6.6%. If we add 6.6% of 73 to 73 we get an average ppg of 77.8. This is now the number needed to be exceeded in order to be a contender. To be conservative we will round down to 77.5 PPG. In 2015-16 Villanova was at 77.2 ppg entering the tournament and won it all. We want to be careful if teams are really close as this stat has obviously changed over time.
Here are the 1-5 Seeds and their PPG
https://preview.redd.it/zzeu66yoc6n21.png?width=215&format=png&auto=webp&s=9c06a2726cd9efbb90a48ac31bc1b6922478b207
The teams coming up short are 1S Virginia 2MW Kentucky 2W Michigan 3W Texas Tech 3S Purdue 3MW Houston 4E Virginia Tech 4W Florida St 4MW Kansas 4S Kansas St
4. Coaches Success Coaches are very important to the success of a team come tournament time. The great coaches tend to outperform their expectations.
This is taken from Pete at Bracket Science
Using tourney appearances and Elite Eight trips, I’ve come up with the following taxonomy of coaching types in the tourney:
Rookies – making their first trip to the tourney Novices – 2-5 tourney trips with no Elite Eight runs Prodigies – 2-5 tourney trips with at least one Elite Eight run Snake-bit – more than five trips with no Elite Eight runs Flashes – more than five trips with one Elite Eight run Destined – 6-10 trips with more than one Elite Eight run Veterans – more than 10 trips with 2-4 Elite Eight runs Legends – more than 10 trips with more than four Elite Eight runs
I’m focusing this analysis on one through six seeds, the seeds most likely to advance in the dance. A standard PASE analysis on the eight classes of coaches turned up these results:

https://preview.redd.it/98oewpmuc6n21.png?width=447&format=png&auto=webp&s=446d790fb9c30932bf3a8df1f301e4483dbda12c
As the chart shows the “snakebit” coaches are ones you will want to stay away from picking to make a deep run. Last season Cincinnati and Purdue fit this category and fell short of their seed expectations as 2 seeds.
This year’s teams with Snake Bit coaches with a 1-6 seed are:
6E Maryland 3S Purdue
  1. Scoring Margin
Using the PASE (Performance above seed expectations) stat from the now-defunct Bracket Science the number one determinant of being able to outperform your seed expectation is scoring margin.
129 teams have been a 1-4 seed and come into the tournament with a 15+ scoring margin. 51 have made the final 4 (39.5%) and 18 have won it all (14%) including Villanova last season (Virginia was at 14.2 and lost in their first game)

https://preview.redd.it/07dgzk6xc6n21.png?width=211&format=png&auto=webp&s=67af0c138488b159d7348756dff80f2d2ac26761
Of the 157 teams to get a 1-4 seed and have a scoring margin under 10 just 2 have won a title and 11 have gone to the final 4.
Last season 1W Xavier Out in Rd of 32 2W UNC Out in Rd of 32 3S Tennessee Out in Rd of 32 4S Arizona Out in Rd of 64
Teams under the 10ppg margin this season 3S Purdue 3E LSU 4W Florida St 4MW Kansas 4S Kansas St
Summary
31 Champions since 1985 have been a 1-4 seed with just 3 seeded higher. So for a potential champion, we should eliminate all teams seeded above 4.
From the above, we can eliminate the following top 4 seeds from championship contention;
Team (corresponding number from above that eliminated them from consideration)
1 Seeds 1E Duke (2) 1S Virginia (3)
2 Seeds 2MW Kentucky (3) 2W Michigan (3)
3 Seeds 3W Texas Tech (1,3) 3S Purdue (3,4,5) 3MW Houston (3) 3E LSU (2,5)
4 Seeds 4E Virginia Tech (3) 4W Florida St (3,5) 4MW Kansas (3,5) 4S Kansas St (3,5)
If we go by these numbers we have eliminated 12 of the top 16 teams as potential champions. I did mention in the 3 point section that while Duke does qualify as a potential upset victim because of poor 3 pt shooting they do hold opponents to a 3 pt% lower than what they shoot. We have seen in the past that this formula can work and since Duke is the favorite to win it all they could very well win it all. However, if you are participating in a bracket pool with a large number of entrants you may want to look to a team other than Duke.
The teams we have left are 1W Gonzaga 1MW UNC 2E Michigan St 2S Tennessee
Let's have a look at where the country is picking on ESPN
Almost 40% of brackets have Duke as a champion. If you have 100 entrants in your pool and you pick Duke to win it all you are going to be -EV on that bracket. The reason is Duke has about a 19% chance to win the championship according to 538. The Vegas odds show about a 29% chance of Duke winning it all. That number is juiced a bit as well. Regardless of what you look at, there is no way Duke wins this tournament 4 out of 10 times as the public is picking. Because of this, you want to be short Duke and find value elsewhere. Of course, Duke may win and you will lose all of your brackets but even if you pick Duke and they win the odds are good that you will not win your bracket anyway. If you insist on picking Duke (perhaps you are an alum) then you need to differentiate yourself elsewhere in the pool. Pick some early upsets and perhaps look for a long shot or 2 to make the final 4 and championship game.
With 1 team from each bracket remaining, I will probably be putting in a bracket with a final 4 that looks exactly like the above (I play a few different brackets to be diverse and increase my chances of winning). It is a bit chalky but without Duke, it will be different than most brackets in most pools.
In this bracket, I will eliminate Gonzaga based on the 83rd best Strength of schedule. They typically have a weak SOS coming out of a mid-major conference and this season is no different.
The way my bracket pool works is you get the seed multiplied by the rounds value. So a 1 seed gets half the points a 2 seed gets for each win. With that said I will go with Michigan St. and Tennessee in the final game with Michigan St winning it all. I think this gives me enough differential from other Michigan St winners. In a 100 person pool, I expect there to be 5-8 Michigan St champions picked. ESPN has it at 4.7% but knowing my pool there will be a few more than that. The percentage is still low enough that if they do win it all my chances of cashing are high (top 5 cash). I will be adding a few more brackets with some other champions. I am going to do more analysis in a future article on possible Cinderella picks. That will help you if you take mostly favorites in the final 4.
As always good luck and let me know who you are picking!
submitted by statsational to CollegeBasketball [link] [comments]

College championship/bowl games

Looking to bet up to 5 oz generic per game. I only bet with established bugs.
First Half Bets
Baylor vs. Oklahoma -5.5, I want Baylor +5.5
Hawaii vs. Boise State -7.5, I want Hawaii +7.5 u/jgriddler 2oz ❌
Georgia vs. Lsu -4, I want Lsu -4 u/aproachablelion 5oz ✅
Virginia vs. Clemson -17, I want Virginia +17
Monmouth vs. James Madison -17.5, I want Monmouth +17.5
Full Game
Wisconsin vs. Ohio State -16.5, I want Wisconsin +16 u/silentsnipe21 3oz u/jgriddler 2oz ✅
Virginia vs. Clemson -28.5, I want Virginia +28.5
Baylor vs. Oklahoma O/U 65, I want the over
Georgia vs. Lsu O/U 57, I want the under u/Williambott 6oz ✅
Money line
Virginia vs. Clemson My 3ozs vs. your 48ozs u/williambott
Nicholls State vs. North Dakota State My 3ozs vs. your 60ozs u/williambott
submitted by Addictedtocoins to silverbugbets [link] [comments]

Ten years ago today, Jim Harbaugh led the 41-point underdog Stanford Cardinal into the Los Angeles Coliseum and defeated the #1 USC Trojans in the largest upset in FBS history

What if I told you David slew Goliath with a 4th and goal corner fade? 🎶

Introduction

On October 6th, 2007, the Stanford Cardinal entered its fifth game of the season against the USC Trojans with a 1-3 record. Few people gave the Cardinal any chance against the #1 team in the country (#1 in Coaches Poll, #2 in AP Poll). They were coming off a dismal 1-11 season. In their 3 games against (ranked) Pac-10 teams so far that season they had been outscored 141-51. They had a first-year head coach. And as if the odds weren't already stack against them enough, the Sunday before the game their starting QB, TC Ostrander, suffered a seizure and would be unavailable to play; so sophomore QB Tavita Pritchard would make his first collegiate start...on the road...in the Los Angeles Coliseum...against the #1 USC Trojans.
Vegas pegged Stanford as a 41-point underdog. But every dog has its day. And that day – October 6th, 2007 – belonged to the Stanford Cardinal.

Timeline of Events Preceding the Game

2001 September 29th - Stanford defeats USC 21-16 in the LA Coliseum. This is USC's last home loss before losing to Stanford in 2007. It is also Stanford's last win against USC until 2007.
2004 January 1st - USC defeats Michigan 28-14 in the 2004 Rose Bowl, winning the 2003 AP national title (split national title with LSU).
2005 January 4th - USC defeats Oklahoma 55-19 in the 2005 Orange Bowl, winning the 2004 national title.
2006 January 4th - USC loses 41-38 to Texas in the 2006 Rose Bowl (and national title game), finishes season #2 in the country.
2006 September 16th - Stanford opens new Stanford Stadium with 37-9 loss to Navy. Stanford doesn't win any games in the new stadium in its inaugural season.
2006 December 4th - Stanford fires Head Coach Walt Harris following 1-11 season.
2006 December 19th - Stanford hires Jim Harbaugh to be its head football coach.
2007 April 2nd - Jim Harbaugh publicly questions how long Carroll will remain at USC, saying "It’s been widely publicized that he has interviewed for other jobs, and that is what I’ve heard...I definitely said that. But we bow to no man. We bow to no program here at Stanford University." Carroll refutes Harbaugh's claims, and thus begins the Carroll-Harbaugh rivalry.
2007 September 24th - The father of Stanford WR Mark Bradford dies of a heart attack. Bradford heads home to Los Angeles to be with his family.
2007 September 30th - Stanford starting QB TC Ostrander suffers seizure. Tavita Pritchard becomes starter for game against USC.
2007 October 6th - Stanford defeats USC 24-23 in the LA Coliseum, snapping USC's 35-game home winning streak.

The Key Characters

Looking back on this game, you'll recognize a lot of familiar faces. Here are just a few of the key characters from that game:
USC
  • Pete Carroll - USC's Head Football Coach. Entering the 2007 season (his seventh as HC), Carroll had led the Trojans to five Pac-10 titles, two national titles (2003 AP, 2004 AP/Coaches/BCS), and a national title game appearance (2005). Carroll would leave USC after the 2009 season and become the head coach of the Seattle Seahawks, eventually leading them to two Super Bowl appearances and a Super Bowl title. Carroll is now in his 8th season as head coach of the Seattle Seahawks.
  • Steve Sarkisian - USC's Offensive Coordinator and Quarterbacks Coach. This was Sarkisian's sixth season with USC (and Pete Carroll). Sarkisian would later become the head coach of the Washington Huskies in 2009 and then return to USC as head coach in 2014. He was fired from USC midway through the 2015 season. He took over offensive coordinator duties for Alabama in the 2017 National Championship Game (which they lost to Clemson) after serving as an offensive analyst throughout the season. He is currently the Offensive Coordinator for Atlanta Falcons.
  • Todd McNair - USC's Runningbacks Coach. This was McNair's fourth season with USC. The NCAA would later target McNair as part of its probe into the Reggie Bush scandal. McNair has since sued the NCAA and the case is ongoing.
  • John David Booty - Starting QB. Booty broke his finger sometime during the game (second quarter?) but remained in the game. He threw four interceptions including a pick six, one that set up Stanford's game-winning drive, and one that sealed Stanford's victory.
  • Mark Sanchez - Backup QB. He was sitting on the sidelines while Booty was throwing interceptions with a broken finger. Sanchez would start the next three games while Booty was out with a broken finger. The following season, Sanchez led the Trojans to their sixth straight Pac-12 title and a Rose Bowl win against Penn State. Sanchez would be drafted 5th overall by the New York Jets in the 2009 NFL Draft. The "Sanchize" led the Jets to two AFC Championship Games. Since his 5-year stint with the Jets he has become a NFL journeyman, playing for the Eagles, Broncos, Cowboys, and Bears.
  • USC's NFL Linebacking Corps - USC's linebacking corps in this game featured future 1st/2nd round draft picks Clay Matthews, Rey Maualuga, Keith Rivers, and Brian Cushing.
Stanford
  • Jim Harbaugh - Head Football Coach. Harbaugh completely changed the culture surrounding Stanford football and resurrected the program from the ashes of a 1-11 season. This game would be the marquee win of the Harbaugh era, leading to a huge improvement in winning recruiting battles...and, more importantly, football games. After the 2010 season (in which Stanford finished 12-1 and won the Orange Bowl), Harbaugh left to become the head coach of the San Francisco 49ers. Today, Harbaugh is the head coach of the Michigan Wolverines (because Jed York is an idiot).
  • David Shaw - Offense Coordinator. Shaw would later succeed Harbaugh as head coach when he left after the 2010 season to become the head coach of the San Francisco 49ers.
  • TC Ostrander - Starting QB. On Sunday, September 30th, 2007, Ostrander suffered a seizure while out to lunch in Palo Alto with his family and WR Evan Moore's family. Due to the seizure, Ostrander would not play in the game against USC.
  • Tavita Pritchard - Backup QB. After Ostrander's seizure, Pritchard took over the reigns at QB. He made his first collegiate start against USC...not a bad first start. Today, he is the Kevin M. Hogan Quarterbacks Coach at Stanford (yes...we endowed the title of our Quarterbacks Coach).
  • Richard Sherman - WR. Sherman was a WR at Stanford his first three seasons (2006-2008) before transitioning to cornerback before the 2009 season. Sherman converted a 4th and 20 on the game-winning drive with a catch that went for ~20.2 yards and set Stanford up with a 1st and goal with a little over a minute left in the game. Sherman would later be drafted by Pete Carroll and the Seahawks in the 5th round of the 2010 NFL Draft. Sherman would eventually become one of the top CBs in the NFL and (at one point) was the highest paid CB.
  • Mark Bradford - WR. Bradford did not practice with the football team for much of the week as he was in Los Angeles with his family following the death of his father. In a "this is so unbelievable I would reject this movie script" moment, Bradford caught the last-minute, game-winning touchdown in his hometown to defeat the #1 team in the country. Bradford dedicated the game to his late father, Mark Sr.

The Game

The first half saw USC put up only 9 points, while Stanford's offense put up none. But it was Stanford's defense that really kept them in the game (they recorded 5 turnovers). A goal-line stop at the end of the first half on 4th and goal from the 1 was the big momentum turn. Three minutes into the second half Austin Yancey intercepted one of Booty's passes and returned it for a TD, cutting USC's lead to 2. USC and Stanford then traded TD drives at the end of the 3rd quartebeginning of the fourth quarter to bring the score to 16-14. With 11 minutes left, a 46-yard TD pass from Booty to Ronald Johnson put USC up 23-14.
With 5:43 left in the game, Stanford kicker Derek Belch cut USC's lead to 6. With three minutes left, Booty overthrew his receiver and the ball landed in the waiting hands of Wopamo Osaisai. Tavita Pritchard then marched Stanford down the field for the game-winning TD pass to Mark Bradford. Another Booty interception thrown to Bo McNally sealed the victory for the Cardinal.
Box Score - ESPN
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Stanford 0 0 7 17
USC 3 6 7 7
Scoring - ESPN
Q1
6:25 David Buehler kicks 35-yard FG. USC 3, Stanford 0.
Q2
7:15 Chauncey Washington rushes 1 yard for a TD. David Buehler's PAT is blocked by Stanford. USC 9, Stanford 0.
Q3
11:58 Austin Yancy intercepts John David Booty's pass and returns it 31 yards for a TD. Derek Belch converts PAT. USC 9, Stanford 7.
2:54 John David Booty completes 63-yard pass to Fred Davis for a TD. David Buehler converts PAT. USC 16, Stanford 7.
Q4
14:54 Anthony Kimble rushes 1 yard for a TD. Derek Belch converts PAT. USC 16, Stanford 14.
11:04 John David Booty completes 46-yard pass to Ronald Johnson for a TD. David Buehler converts PAT. USC 23, Stanford 14.
5:43 Derek Belch kicks 26-yard FG. USC 23, Stanford 17.
0:49 Tavita Pritchard completes 10-yard pass to Mark Bradford for a TD. Derek Belch converts PAT. Stanford 24, USC 23.
Team Stats - ESPN
Stanford USC
First Downs 16 19
Total Yards 235 459
Passing Yards 171 393
Rushing Yards 86 95
Penalties 7-65 8-80
Turnovers 1 5
Key Plays
  • USC's Blocked PAT - The 1-point difference in the final score was due to a PAT that Stanford blocked midway through the second quarter that kept the USC lead to only 9-0.
  • Stanford's Goal Line Stand (start at 39:29 mark of video) - With only a couple of minutes remaining in the first half, USC had a first and goal at Stanford 9-yard line, leading 9-0. USC ran the ball on second, third, and fourth downs but was unable to punch it in. The biggest moment came when Stanford stopped USC on a 4th and goal from the 1-yard line with 11 seconds left in the first half.
  • Austin Yancy's Pick Six (start at 39:41 mark of video) - Three minutes into the second half, John David Booty threw the first of his four interceptions to Austin Yancy, who returned the ball 31 yards for the TD.
  • John David Booty's Third Interception (start at 40:20 mark of video) - With three minutes left in the game, John David Booty throws his third interception of the game to Wopamo Osaisai, who returns it to the USC 45-yard line, setting up Stanford's game-winning TD drive.
  • Richard Sherman's 4th and 20 Conversion (start at 7:57 mark of video) - With 1:39 left on the clock, on 4th and 20 from the USC 29-yard line, Tavita Pritchard throws a pass directly over the middle to Richard Sherman, who completes an amazing 20-yard catch that makes it just inches across the line to gain.
  • Mark Bradford's 4th and Goal Game-Winning TD Catch (start at 18:35 mark of video) - With 0:49 left on the clock, on 4th and goal from the USC 10-yard line, Tavita Pritchard lobs a fade to the left corner of the end zone (the exact same play that was run on third down to Evan Moore). Mark Bradford pulls it in, toe taps, and scores the game-winning TD. The excited Versus announcer is so surprised he screams "Touchdown USC!"
The Game-Winning Drive (first 22 minutes of video)
Booty throws an interception that Stanford returns to the USC 45. Tavita Pritchard then marches Stanford down the field (enduring a handful of penalties and incomplete passes). Richard Sherman and Mark Bradford make two of the most icon catches in Stanford Football history. Plus, lots of peak Harbaugh.
I strongly recommend you watch the video of the final drive (it's the first 22 minutes).

The Aftermath

Immediate Aftermath
How unexpected was this result? Well, it was so surprising that a number of Stanford students held an impromptu bonfire in the Main Quad, right in front of Memorial Church. Here is the cover of the Stanford Daily the Monday after the game. Stanford Athletics also made this t-shirt.
This was another in a series of unexpected results during the wild 2007 college football season. College football fans around the country rejoiced when they heard the news of yet another shocking upset. Per Wikipedia:
The final score was announced at the Rose Bowl, where USC's two arch-rivals, UCLA and Notre Dame, were playing each other. Irish and Bruins fans cheered in unison and celebrated together briefly. At the same time, at Tiger Stadium, the #1 LSU Tigers were playing the #9 Florida Gators and the fans in the stadium celebrated when the USC score was announced there, too. The Tigers would later come from behind to beat the Gators 28–24, making them #1 in both polls with USC dropping from #1 in the coaches poll due to the loss.
USC finished the season with a Pac-10 title (shared with Arizona State) and won the 2008 Rose Bowl against an overmatched Illinois team, but this loss ultimately knocked USC out of the national title game. This shocking upset paved the way for LSU to get into the 2008 National Championship Game and beat Ohio State 38-24, becoming the only 2-loss national champion of the BCS/CFP era.
Long-term Aftermath
If there is one game to point to and say this is when the Stanford Football Renaissance began, this is THAT game. The incredible upset validated Harbaugh’s boastful claim that ”We bow to no man. We bow to no program here at Stanford University.” If not for this victory, Harbaugh may not have been able to recruit the players (e.g. Andrew Luck, David DeCastro, Coby Fleener, Zach Ertz) that would become the foundation of the unprecedented success of the last decade of Stanford football. Needless to say, we hold this game very dear to our hearts.
Here is a comparison of Stanford Football in the decade before October 6th, 2007 and the decade since:
Stat Decade Before Decade Since
Record 43-69 (0.384) 95-37 (0.720)
Record against USC 3-7 (0.300) 8-4 (0.666)
Record against Rivals (USC, Cal, ND) 10-19 (0.345) 22-10 (0.688)
Conference Record 30-52 (0.366) 65-25 (0.722)
10+ Win Seasons 0 6
Conference Titles 1 3
Bowls 2 (0 wins) 8 (5 wins)
Major (BCS/NY6) Bowls 1 (0 wins) 5 (3 wins)
Rose Bowls 1 (0 wins) 3 (2 wins)
Heisman Finalists 0 4 (4 runners-up :/)
This game also revived the USC-Stanford rivalry (which dates back to 1905), which had become very...lopsided in recent years. Since 2007, USC-Stanford has become must-watch television, producing instant classics like 2010 (Stanford defeats USC on a walk-off FG), 2011 (Stanford defeats USC in 3OT), 2012 (Stanford defeats #2 USC 21-14), 2013 (USC defeats Stanford on last-minute FG). Stanford has always hated USC, but in the last decade Stanford has (finally) given USC a reason to hate Stanford, posting an 8-4 record against the Trojans.
Last Decade of USC-Stanford Games
Year Result Video Detail
2007 Stanford 24-23 Final Drive + Post-Game + Highlights The Upset
2008 USC 45-23 The Revenge of the Upset - Up 43-17 with 0:03 left on the clock, Carroll calls a timeout to ice Stanford's kicker. Harbaugh pulls the kicking unit and Alex Loukas throws an 18-yard TD pass to Austin Gunder to end the game; Stanford covers the spread
2009 Stanford 55-21 Full Game "What's Your Deal?" - Harbaugh goes for the 2 point conversion when up 48-21, prompting Carroll to ask "What's Your Deal?"
2010 Stanford 37-35 Full Game Stanford kicks a walk-off FG for the win, also Andrew Luck banished Shareece Wright to the Phantom Zone
2011 Stanford 56-48 (3OT) Full Game Stanford outlasts USC in 3 overtimes
2012 Stanford 21-14 Highlights "Finished Business" - Stanford upsets #2 USC, ending the "Unfinished Business" hype train
2013 USC 20-17 Full Game USC ends Stanford's 4-game winning streak, rushes the field
2014 USC 13-10 Highlights USC outlasts Stanford in an ugly, ugly game
2015 Stanford 41-31 Highlights Stanford upsets #6 USC on the road, 2 weeks after ugly Northwestern loss
2015 (Pac-12 CG) Stanford 41-22 Highlights The Stanford McCaffreys McCaffrey all over the USC non-McCaffreys, win Pac-12
2016 Stanford 27-10 Full Game The Stanford McCaffreys McCaffrey again
2017 USC 42-24 30-minute "Full" Game The Darnold gets his W against the Cardinal

A New Record

For almost ten years, Stanford overcoming a 41-point spread stood as the largest upset in college football history. However, in week 1 of this season, the FCS Howard Bison (led by Cam Newton's younger brother, Caylin) defeated the UNLV rebels 43-40, overcoming a 45-point spread and taking over the record for the largest upset (by point spread) in college football history.
Now, Stanford's 2007 upset of USC stands as the largest upset between two FBS teams.

Resources

submitted by LEGEN--wait_for_it to CFB [link] [comments]

What if Universities Gambled their Endowment on Football? The Endowment Stakes Week 13 & Conference Championship Preview

The 2018 /CFB Endowment Stakes - Week 13

Note: This post is best enjoyed on a desktop with old Reddit: click here

Concept (Please Read): Each week, all FBS teams will gamble 50% of their remaining endowment against the money line odds. Teams do not bet against each other, but rather the /CFB Sports Book

Heavy favorites will be mildly rewarded for their wins, but upsets will propel universities up the rankings, bringing economic prosperity and opportunities to their students - that is until they lose the following week and wipe out half of their remaining endowment.
How money line betting works:
If a team has negative odds, they are the favorite - Ex: Utah -220, must wager $220 to profit $100
If a team has positive odds, they are the underdog - Ex: LSU +350, must wager $100 to profit $350

Track the standings and each week's matchups in the Google Sheet

Week 13 Endowment Rankings

All amounts are in $ Billions
Rank School Endowment Growth Week 13 Profit Potential Profit
1 - Notre Dame Notre Dame 55.69 371.94% 5.57 No Action
2 - Northwestern Northwestern 26.11 149.61% 1.24 56.14
3 - Texas Texas 16.02 53.61% 1.07 20.19
4 +5 Ohio State Ohio State 8.24 93.85% 3.85 .74
5 +1 Kentucky Kentucky 5.32 315.28% .25 No Action
6 +4 Stanford Stanford 4.74 -80.88% .72 Pending Odds
7 -3 Michigan Michigan 4.74 -56.52% -4.74 No Action
8 +5 Cincinnati Cincinnati 3.08 164.36% .18 No Action
9 -4 Duke Duke 3.01 -55.98% -3.01 No Action
10 +4 California California 2.86 -33.38% .29 Pending Odds
11 -4 Virginia Virginia 2.35 -72.78% -2.35 No Action
12 -4 Pittsburgh Pittsburgh 2.23 -43.55% -2.23 32.05
13 -2 Washington State Washington State 1.88 92.98% -1.88 No Action
14 -2 LSU LSU 1.75 106.72% -1.75 No Action
15 +3 Oklahoma Oklahoma 1.63 -1.41% .41 .29
16 - Florida Florida 1.47 -8.77% .20 No Action
17 +8 Syracuse Syracuse 1.43 13.76% .70 No Action
18 -1 Buffalo Buffalo 1.33 102.36% .09 .38
19 +7 Washington Washington 1.13 -66.41% .42 .28
20 - Georgia Georgia 1.11 -3.47% .07 2.31
21 - Penn State Penn State 1.02 -74.57% .08 No Action
22 +17 Minnesota Minnesota 1.00 -71.35% .64 No Action
23 -1 Clemson Clemson .92 48.23% .01 0.01
24 -9 SMU SMU .86 -43.21% -.86 No Action
25 -1 Alabama Alabama .83 20.86% .01 .09
Next Five In: Hawai'i Hawai'i ($764M), Texas A&M Texas A&M ($762M), Purdue Purdue ($647M), Utah Utah ($636M), BYU BYU ($578M)

For all 130 Teams Ranked, please see Google Sheet

Through Week 13, the /CFB Sports Book up $50.82B

Another very modest week, a small $2B profit for Las Vegas, just enough to offset last week

Week 13 Results

Apple Cup - Washington State #11 Washington State fell at the hands of rival Washington Washington in the snow on Friday at the Apple Cup, but the Cougars remain in the top 15 despite a $1.88B loss. The Huskies enter the top 25 again with a $420M win
Paul Bunyan's Axe - Minnesota Minnesota had the biggest climb this week, jumping 17 spots to #22 defeating Wisconsin Wisconsin. The Golden Gophers end their 14-year losing streak and take home $640M, to round their endowment to an even billion.
The Game - The Game was a little one-sided this year, with Ohio State Ohio State routing rival Michigan Michigan to take home $3.85B and enter the top 5 for the first time. Michigan drops out of the top 5, losing nearly $5B.
Texas A&M Texas A&M took 7 overtimes, but defeated rival LSU #12 LSU for the first time since 1995 to win $186M, while the Tigers slipped 2 spots but remain in the top 15.
Oklahoma #18 Oklahoma handles West Virginia West Virginia in a classic Big 12 affair to win $410M before their rematch with Texas.
Notre Dame #1 Notre Dame ended their regular season with a perfect record with a defeat of USC USC. Almost certainly playoff bound, the Fighting Irish are going to have to wait over a month for their next action

Week 14 Big Bets

MAC MAC Championship Game

Northern Illinois #88 Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Buffalo #18 Buffalo Bulls

The Bull's season is impressive, more than doubling their starting endowment in key upsets to earn more than $674M before clinching a spot in the MAC Championship Game. Their opponent: Northern Illinois a team that has lost 67% of their endowment but have everything to play for this Friday with a chance to wipe out their losses in an upset.
Current Line: Buffalo -175
With a Win: Buffalo: $1.33B Northern Illinois: $24.62M

Pac-12 Pac-12 Championship Game

Utah #29 Utah Utes vs. Washington #19 Washington Huskies

The Utes had a slow start to the season, dropping two of their first four including a loss to Washington, but Utah has been red hot since then, winning seven of their last eight. Utah's early season losses made it difficult to have positive cash flow, but they are down just 41% with a chance to enter the black this week. Similarly, the Washington Huskies season started off with a dud against Auburn in Atlanta. Since then, the Huskies have ebbed and flowed their way to a Pac-12 Championship and despite losing over 66% of their endowment, have a chance to win some big cash in the Championship and a bowl game.
Current Line: Washington -200
With a Win: Utah: $540M Washington: $282M

ACC ACC Championship Game

Clemson #23 Clemson Tigers vs. Pittsburgh #12 Pittsburgh Panthers

Despite Pitt being ranked higher in our simulation, these two teams have had opposite seasons. Clemson has calmly worked their way through their schedule to enter Championship week at 12-0, while Pittsburgh has been predictably unpredictable including dropping their season finale. However, things have happened before when unranked Pitt takes on #2 Clemson, so don't count chaos out just yet.
Current Line: Clemson -4625
With a Win: Clemson: $9.95M Pittsburgh: $32.05B

Big 12 Big 12 Championship Game

Texas #3 Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma #15 Oklahoma Sooners

Are they back? We will have to see! In a rematch of the Red River Showdown, a thrilling affair where the Longhorns won 48-45, Oklahoma seeks revenge and a possible date with the playoffs. After another early season disappointment against Maryland, Texas has been strong, taking home over $5.5B to grow their endowment 50%. The Sooners' only loss wiped out their earnings for the season, but they will enter the black once again if they can defeat their rival.
Current Line: Oklahoma -300
With a Win: Texas: $20.03B Oklahoma: $271.13M

Big Ten Big Ten Championship Game

Northwestern #2 Northwestern Wildcats vs. Ohio State #4 Ohio State Buckeyes

Speaking of roller coasters, have you heard of the Wildcats? Despite early season losses, Northwestern has been one of the overall best investments this season, taking home over $15B of profit, more than doubling their original endowment. And then we have the Buckeyes, who except for some pesky Boilermakers and scary Terrapins have had a perfect season and have nearly doubled their endowment capping the regular season off with a $3.85B win over rival Michigan. They may have a CFP spot on the line as well, should they defeat Northwestern.
Current Line: Ohio State -555
With a Win: Northwestern: $56.14B Ohio State: $742.72M

SEC SEC Championship Game

Georgia #20 Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama #25 Alabama Crimson Tide

This game was set up to be as fair as possible, but the journey to the top would be most difficult to schools like these. Both Georgia and Alabama started the season with smaller endowments and were heavily favored in almost every game, meaning that a 12-0 Alabama has only grown their endowment by 20.86%. As far as investments go, a 20% return in a little over three months is nothing to scoff at. Maybe some ETF's in the future will feature the Crimson Tide. Georgia would love to play upset and secure a spot in the CFP.
Current Line: Alabama -485
With a Win: Georgia: $2.31B Alabama: $85.10M

American AAC Championship Game

Memphis #102 Memphis Tigers vs. UCF #38 UCF Knights

Central Florida had many of the same issues as the Alabama's and Clemson's of the world, heavily favored in all games. However, the Knights also started out with a small endowment of just $156M. Another undefeated thus far has more than doubled their endowment, bringing the total to $359M. A win here and a trip to an NY6 may be enough for the Knights to crack the top 25, perhaps they even sacrificed their prize QB to make the odds even more favorable for growth. And then we have Memphis, the lowest ranked team to make a championship game. Memphis has shed 95% of their endowment, and hope to do some repair work in the championship game.
Current Line: UCF -215
With a Win: Memphis: $8.22M UCF: $83.39M

Mountain West Mountain West Championship Game

Fresno State #62 Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Boise State #59 Boise State Broncos

Now we head west for a battle of 10-2 teams. Boise State's season has been pretty much a wash, despite winning 10 games. The Broncos are down 9% on the season but with two games left, they have a chance to be in the black. The Bulldogs have fared a little worse, down 42% on the season. As underdogs for the Championship, they may be on their way to repairing previous damage.
Current Line: Boise State -140
With a Win: Fresno State: $51.17M Boise State: $32.16M

Sun Belt Sun Belt Championship Game

Louisiana #85 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns vs. Appalachian State #78 Appalachian State Mountaineers

In a year of multiple Bulldogs, Tigers, and Huskies in the championship games, the Sun Belt's inaugural championship game will be played between two of the more unique names in college football. After nearly knocking off Penn State to start the season, the Mountaineers host this game as favorites, hoping to wipe out some of the 60% of damage to their original $95M endowment. The Ragin' Cajuns have more to gain - they can earn back much of their 85% decrease in endowment this season.
Current Line: Appalachian State -905
With a Win: Louisiana: $86.62M Appalachian State: $2.09M

Conference USA Conference USA Championship Game

UAB #35 UAB Blazers vs. #84 Middle Tennessee Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

In a rematch of a game that took place just a few days ago, UAB will seek revenge against the Blue Raiders. UAB has been one of the better performing G5 teams throughout the season. Despite losing last week, they are one of the few teams that have still made a profit on the season. Should they exact revenge, they'll take some more profit with them. MTSU is just one loss away from breaking even on the season. If they want to recoup their losses, a win will be necessary on Saturday.
Current Line: Middle Tennessee -140
With a Win: UAB: $262.77M MTSU: $10.51M
Additionally, the following teams are playing in makeup games:
Stanford/California , Norfolk State/Liberty, Drake/Iowa State, Marshall/Virginia Tech, ECU/NC State, Akron/South Carolina

Season Performance Stats

Best Investments

Rank School Growth Current Endowment Starting Endowment
1 Notre Dame Notre Dame 371.94% $55.69B $11.80B
2 Kentucky Kentucky 315.28% $5.32B $1.28B
3 Cincinnati Cincinnati 164.36% $3.08B $1.17B
4 Hawai'i Hawai'i 158.28% $764M $296M
5 Northwestern Northwestern 149.61% $26.11B $10.46B

Worst Investments

Rank School Growth Current Endowment Starting Endowment
130 Rutgers Rutgers -99.95% $623K $1.20B
T-127 Connecticut UConn -99.94% $234K $422M
T-127 San José State San José State -99.94% $92K $143M
T-127 Central Michigan Central Michigan -99.94% $81K $130M
126 UTEP UTEP -99.72% $152K $217M

Notes:

I will be posting these storylines and information weekly at approximately 10 am on Tuesdays.
If you have any suggestions or if I made any mistakes, please let me know! Once again, I have all 130 FBS teams with every single game throughout the season on a Google Sheet. Best of luck to whoever you are rooting for, I hope your donors came prepared to put their money where their mouths are!

Past Editions:

Week 12 Week 11 Week 10 Week 9 Week 8 Week 7 Week 6 Week 5 Week 4 Week 3 Week 2 Week 1 Week 0 Pre-Season

Before you comment on how eager you are to take your opponent's money, please remember that you are gambling against the house, not against each other

Track the standings and each week's matchups in the Google Sheet

submitted by dasani3x to CFB [link] [comments]

College football lines released for the week. Clemson is a touchdown favorite at Virginia Tech

Full list of lines here: http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/?s=3014
Any lines stick out to anyone?
Top 25 lines. No. 1 Alabama (-28) vs. Ole Miss No. 2 Clemson (-7) at No. 12 Virginia Tech No. 4 Penn State (-17.5) vs. Indiana No. 5 USC (-4.5) at No. 16 Washington State No. 6 Washington (-26.5) at Oregon State No. 7 Georgia (-7.5) at Tennessee No. 10 Wisconsin (-10) vs. Northwestern No. 11 Ohio State (-28.5) at Rutgers No. 13 Auburn (-10) vs. No. 24 Mississippi State No. 14 Miami (FL) (-6) at Duke No. 15 Oklahoma State (-13.5) at Texas Tech No. 18 South Florida (-26) at East Carolina No. 19 San Diego State (-13.5) vs. Northern Illinois No. 21 Florida (-10.5) vs. Vanderbilt No. 22 Notre Dame (-20) vs. Miami (OH) No. 25 LSU (-21) vs. Troy
submitted by BearsNecessity to CFB [link] [comments]

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submitted by TheMACSPicks to NBABets [link] [comments]

List of all the early week 1 betting lines.

So I decided instead of comparing AP#1s and movies/TV shows I should make a post that could actually have a function. Since I'm a fan of making money off of CFB I figured I there were others that enjoyed the same. So I went and compiled all the early week 1 lines from the major sportsbooks. And since these are still not the final lines I will update the table and repost it the day before games start. List of Bovada lines. List of remaining sportsbook's lines
A few lines against the spread (Bovada lines) that jump out at me currently: Florida +4, Maryland +17, Utep +44, WMU +26, Georgia Southern -35, Troy +12.5, A&M +3 (super iffy ab this one tho).
Quick side note: It is a travesty that I couldn’t use Sparky as the flair for Arizona State. Win that alternate flair ASU fans.
Teams Bovada Westgate Superbook MGM Mirage William Hill CG Tech. Stations BetOnline
Oregon State @ Colorado State CSU -3.5 CSU -3.5 CSU -3.5 CSU -3.5 CSU -3.5 CSU -3.5 CSU -3.5
Hawai'i @ UMass UH -1.0 UH -1.5 Umass -1.0 UH -1.0 UH -1.0 UH -1.0 UH -1.0
USF @ San José State USF -20 USF -20 USF -19 USF -20 USF -21 USF -20 USF-20
Rice @ Stanford SU-31.5 SU -31.5 SU -31.5 SU -31.5 SU -32 SU -32 SU -31.5
Ohio State @ Indiana OSU -20.5 OSU -21 OSU -21 OSU -21 OSU -20.5 OSU -21 OSU -21.5
Buffalo @ Minnesota UM -26.5 UM -26.5 UM -26.5 UM -27 UM -27 UM -27 UM -26.5
ULM @ Memphis Memphis -27 Memphis -27.5 Memphis -27 Memphis –27 Memphis -27 Memphis -27 Memphis -27
New Mexico State @ Arizona State ASU -25 ASU-25.5 ASU -25 ASU -25.5 ASU -25.5 ASU -25.5 ASU -25
Charlotte @ Eastern Michigan EMU -12.5 EMU -12 EMU -12.5 EMU -12.5 EMU -12.5 EMU -12.5 EMU -12
Washington @ Rutgers UW -30.5 UW -30.5 UW -31 UW -30.5 UW -30.5 UW -30.5 UW -30.5
Navy @ FAU Navy -14 Navy -13.5 Navy -14.5 Navy -14 Navy -13.5 Navy -13.5 Navy -13.5
Boston College @ Northern Illinois BC -3.0 BC -2.5 BC -2.0 BC -3.0 BC -3.0 BC -3.0 BC -2.5
Utah State @ Wisconsin UW –29 UW -29 UW -29 UW -29 UW -29 UW -29 UW -29
Bowling Green @ Michigan State MSU -19.5 MSU -20 MSU -20 MSU -20 MSU -20 MSU -20 MSU -20
Arkansas State @ Nebraska UN -16.5 UN -16 UN -16.5 UN -16.5 UN -16.5 UN -16.5 UN -17
Wyoming @ Iowa Iowa -13 Iowa -13 Iowa -13.5 Iowa -13.5 Iowa -13 Iowa -13 Iowa -13
Louisville @ Purdue UL -26.5 UL -26 UL -26.5 UL -26.5 UL -26 UL -26.5 UL -26.5
Akron @ Penn State PSU -33 PSU-33 PSU -33 PSU -33 PSU -33 PSU -33 PSU -33
Kent State @ Clemson CU -38.5 CU -38 CU -38 CU -39 CU -39 CU -39 CU -38.5
Ball State @ Illinois UI -8.5 UI -7.5 UI -8.5 UI -8.5 UI -9 UI -9 UI -9
Miami (OH) @ Marshall Marshall -1.0 PK Marshall -1.0 PK PK PK PK
Nevada @ Northwestern NW -24.5 NW -25 NW -23.5 NW -24.5 NW -24 NW -24.5 NW -24
South Carolina @ NC State NCS -5.0 NCS -5.5 NCS -4.5 NCS -5.5 NCS -5.0 NCS -5.0 NCS -5.0
Michigan vs Florida UM -4.0 UM -4.0 UM -4.5 UM -4.0 UM -4.0 UM -4.5 UM -4.0
Maryland @ Texas UT -17 UT -16.5 UT -16.5 UT -17 UT -17 UT -17 UT -17.5
UTEP @ Oklahoma OU -44 OU –44 OU -45 OU -44 OU -44.5 OU -44 OU -44.5
Temple @ Notre Dame ND -15 ND -15.5 ND -15 ND -15 ND -15 ND -15 ND -15
Western Michigan @ USC USC -26 USC -27 USC -25.5 USC -26 USC -26 USC -26 USC -26
California @ North Carolina UNC -12.5 UNC -13 UNC -12.5 UNC -13 UNC -13 UNC -13 UNC -12.5
Georgia Southern @ Auburn AU -35 AU -35 AU -35 AU -35 AU -35 AU -35 AU -35
Troy @ Boise State BSU -12.5 BSU -12.5 BSU -12.5 BSU -12.5 BSU -12.5 BSU -12.5 BSU -12.5
Kentucky @ Southern Miss UK -10 UK -10 UK -10 UK -10 UK -10 UK -10 UK -10
Appalachian State @ Georgia UGA -14 UGA -14.5 UGA -13.5 UGA -14.5 UGA -14.5 UGA -14.5 UGA -14
Tulsa @ Oklahoma State OSU -17 OSU -17 OSU -16.5 OSU -17 OSU -16 OSU -17.5 OSU -16.5
Houston @ UTSA UH -13.5 UH -13 UH -14 UH -13.5 UH -13.5 UH -13.5 UH -13.5
South Alabama @ Ole Miss Locked Miss -25 Miss -25.5 Miss -24.5 Miss -24.5 Miss -25 Miss -25.5
Alabama vs Florida State Bama -7.0 Bama -7.0 Bama -7.5 Bama -7.5 Bama -7.0 Bama -7.0 Bama -7.0
Vanderbilt @ Middle Tennessee Vandy -5.5 Vandy -4.5 Vandy -5.5 Vandy -6.0 Vandy -6.0 Vandy -6.0 Vandy -6.5
BYU vs LSU LSU -13 LSU -13.5 LSU -12.5 LSU -13.5 LSU -13 LSU -13.5 LSU -13.5
West Virginia vs Virginia Tech VT -4.5 VT -4.5 VT -4.5 VT -4.5 VT -4.0 VT -4.5 VT -4.5
Texas A&M @ UCLA UCLA -3.5 UCLA 3.5 UCLA 3.0 UCLA -3.5 UCLA -3.5 UCLA -3 UCLA -3
Georgia Tech vs Tennessee UT -3.5 UT -3.5 UT -3.0 UT -3.5 UT -3.5 UT -3.5 UT -3.5
FIU @ UCF N/A UCF -17.5 UCF -17 UCF -17.5 UCF -17.5 UCF -17.5 UCF -17
Colorado State vs Colorado N/A Colorado -7.0 Colorado -7.0 Colorado -7.0 Colorado -7.0 Colorado -7.0 Colorado -7.0
UMass @ Coastal Carolina N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
submitted by rhuguenel to CFB [link] [comments]

Week 1 - Value over Spread: How Overrated is your team?

Wins and losses aren't great qualifiers in team value in college football. FSU's loss to Bama is not worth less than Louisville's narrow victory over Purdue. In fact, it's quite the opposite. Against the spread, FSU preformed 10 points worse than the Vegas Odds expected, yet Louisville, even with the victory, preformed 18.5 points worse than they were valued at prior to the game.
This weekly list will show how each team preforms against the spread, over time showing how teams are oveunderrated over time with their total scores compared to the spread, and their record against the spread. Without further ado, here is our week one results (save for Tennessee/Georgia Tech which will be updated at games completion) Sorry FCS schools (especially Liberty and Howard), this is FBS only.
.
Rank Team Today's Score vs Spread Total Score Vs Spreas Record Vs Spread
1 Army 39.5 39.5 1-0
2 Texas Tech 34 34 1-0
3 Fresno St 31.5 31.5 1-0
4 Maryland 28.5 28.5 1-0
5 Air Force 27.5 27.5 1-0
6 Miss State 27.5 27.5 1-0
7 North Texas 27.5 27.5 1-0
8 Central FL 26.5 26.5 1-0
9 Stanford DNP 25.5 1-0
10 Ohio 23 23 1-0
11 Penn State 22.5 22.5 1-0
12 Wisconsin 22 22 1-0
13 N Mex State 20.5 20.5 1-0
14 LA Monroe 19.5 19.5 1-0
15 Vanderbilt 19.5 19.5 1-0
16 Purdue 18.5 18.5 1-0
17 California 17.5 17.5 1-0
18 Colorado St -11 17 1-1
19 Duke 17 17 1-0
20 Oregon 16.5 16.5 1-0
21 Oklahoma St 15.5 15.5 1-0
22 Clemson 15 15 1-0
23 Navy 15 15 1-0
24 S Carolina 14.5 14.5 1-0
25 S Methodist 14 14 1-0
26 San Jose St 13.5 14 2-0
27 Nevada 13 13 1-0
28 Notre Dame 13 13 1-0
29 Buffalo 12.5 12.5 1-0
30 Arizona 12 12 1-0
31 Coastal Car 12 12 1-0
32 LSU 12 12 1-0
33 Michigan 12 12 1-0
34 Rutgers 12 12 1-0
35 Kansas St 11.5 11.5 1-0
36 Tulane 11.5 11.5 1-0
37 Colorado 11 11 1-0
38 TX-San Ant 11 11 1-0
39 Alabama 10 10 1-0
40 W Michigan 10 10 1-0
41 Georgia 9 9 1-0
42 Iowa 8.5 8.5 1-0
43 Marshall 8.5 8.5 1-0
44 Iowa State 8 8 1-0
45 Ohio State 8 8 1-0
46 Arkansas St 7.5 7.5 1-0
47 Michigan St 7.5 7.5 1-0
48 Hawaii 0 6 1-0-1
49 Oklahoma 6 6 1-0
50 Texas A&M 6 6 1-0
51 UAB 3.5 3.5 1-0
52 E Michigan 3 3 1-0
53 Ball State 2.5 2.5 1-0
54 S Mississippi 2.5 2.5 1-0
55 Virginia Tech 2 2 1-0
56 Wake Forest 2 2 1-0
57 S Alabama 1.5 1.5 1-0
58 Boise State 0.5 0.5 1-0
59 GA Southern 0.5 0.5 1-0
60 N Illinois 0.5 0.5 1-0
61 Utah 0.5 0.5 1-0
62 Idaho 0 0 0-0-1
63 Auburn -0.5 -0.5 0-1
64 Boston Col -0.5 -0.5 0-1
65 Troy -0.5 -0.5 0-1
66 TX Christian -1 -1 0-1
67 Mississippi -1.5 -1.5 0-1
68 W Virginia -2 -2 0-1
69 Illinois -2.5 -2.5 0-1
70 Kentucky -2.5 -2.5 0-1
71 Charlotte -3 -3 0-1
72 Syracuse -4 -4 0-1
73 Arkansas -5 -5 0-1
74 Pittsburgh -6 -6 0-1
75 TX El Paso -6 -6 0-1
76 UCLA -6 -6 0-1
77 Missouri -7 -7 0-1
78 Bowling Grn -7.5 -7.5 0-1
79 Kansas -7.5 -7.5 0-1
80 Nebraska -7.5 -7.5 0-1
81 Texas State -7.5 -7.5 0-1
82 Indiana -8 -8 0-1
83 Miami (OH) -8.5 -8.5 0-1
84 Wyoming -8.5 -8.5 0-1
85 App State -9 -9 0-1
86 Old Dominion -9.5 -9.5 0-1
87 Virginia -9.5 -9.5 0-1
88 Florida St -10 -10 0-1
89 New Mexico -10 -10 0-1
90 USC -10 -10 0-1
91 Wash State -10 -10 0-1
92 Houston -11 -11 0-1
93 Toledo -11 -11 0-1
94 LA Lafayette -11.5 -11.5 0-1
95 LA Tech -11.5 -11.5 0-1
96 Florida -12 -12 0-1
97 Washington -12 -12 0-1
98 Minnesota -12.5 -12.5 0-1
99 Northwestern -13 -13 0-1
100 Temple -13 -13 0-1
101 San Diego St -14 -14 0-1
102 NC State -14.5 -14.5 0-1
103 Connecticut -15 -15 0-1
104 Fla Atlantic -15 -15 0-1
105 Kent State -15 -15 0-1
106 Tulsa -15.5 -15.5 0-1
107 N Carolina -17.5 -17.5 0-1
108 U Mass -12 -18 0-2
109 Louisville -18.5 -18.5 0-1
110 E Carolina -19 -19 0-1
111 Memphis -19.5 -19.5 0-1
112 Middle Tenn -19.5 -19.5 0-1
113 Arizona St -20.5 -20.5 0-1
114 S Florida -21 -21.5 0-2
115 Miami (FL) -22 -22 0-1
116 Utah State -22 -22 0-1
117 Akron -22.5 -22.5 0-1
118 Rice DNP -25.5 0-1
119 Georgia State -23 -23 0-1
120 W Kentucky -23.5 -23.5 0-1
121 Florida Intl -26.5 -26.5 0-1
122 Texas -28.5 -28.5 0-1
123 Cincinnati -31 -31 0-1
124 Central Mich -31.5 -31.5 0-1
125 BYU -12 -33 0-2
126 Baylor -36.5 -36.5 0-1
127 UNLV -48 -48 0-1
128 Oregon St -23.5 -51.5 0-2
.
Edit: Updated with week 0 scores
submitted by You_coward to CFB [link] [comments]

vegas odds oklahoma vs lsu video

The 2019 Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl featuring the Oklahoma Sooners and the LSU Tigers is December 28th. Check out our picks, odds, betting preview and more. Oklahoma Sooners vs LSU Tigers Odds - Saturday December 28 2019 Odds Shark Oklahoma vs. LSU. Spread: LSU -13.5 Point total: 75.5 Moneyline: LSU -500, Oklahoma +380. LSU is a 13.5-point favorite according to Sports Insider. The line opened at -11 and has continued to ... Peach Bowl Odds: Oklahoma vs. LSU. Odds: LSU -13 Over/Under: 76 Date: Saturday, Dec. 28, 2019 Time: 4 p.m. ET TV channel: ESPN Location: Atlanta Odds as of Sunday ... LSU (13-0) has exceeded everyone’s expectations this season– even Vegas’; the Tigers are 8-3-2 against the spread (ATS) this season, including 2-0 at neutral sites this year. Oklahoma (12-1) scrapped its way down the stretch, finishing 5-8 ATS this season (including twice against Baylor in the final four games). Peach Bowl Prediction: LSU Tops Oklahoma. The Tigers are hot in Vegas as LSU is 8-3-2 against the spread this season. LSU crushed the one touchdown spread against Georgia in the SEC Championship ... See live scores, odds, player props and analysis for the Oklahoma Sooners vs LSU Tigers College Football game on December 28, 2019 College Football Playoff odds: LSU vs. Oklahoma. LSU Tigers -13.5 vs. Oklahoma Sooners, O/U 76; The oddsmakers nailed the total in this game as there has been no line movement either way. Live betting odds for Oklahoma Sooners vs LSU Tigers - Saturday, December 28, 2019 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Saturday, December 28, 2019. Up to date offshore betting odds of over 30+ sportsbooks ... Previous odds at some Vegas books actually had Ohio State as the favorite, but that was before the matchups were set. College Football Playoff Odds No. 1 LSU vs. No. 4 Oklahoma (+9.5) The Tigers are 13.5-point favorites, while the over-under for total points scored is a sky-high 76.5, up a half-point from the opener, in the latest Oklahoma vs. LSU odds.

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