South Korean president's office: No signs Kim Jong Un in

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north korea president health now

north korea president health now - win

My final thoughts on POTUS 45, Donald Trump

Donald Trump has just taken off from Joint Base Andrews for his final ride on Air Force One. The Trump Era has come to a close. I think now is a good time to reflect on his Presidency, and offer some of my thoughts on POTUS 45.
Donald Trump was the first President in my lifetime who I was genuinely shocked to see elected. The media, the polls, all the "experts" got 2016 so completely wrong that it changed my views on who is worth listening to forever. Donald Trump is the one true "outsider" to ever win the Presidency. He was the only President to never serve in the military or hold another government office before being elected. This proved that ANYONE can win the Presidency, for better or for worse. I have never had such a polarized opinion of a President in my lifetime. On the one hand, Donald Trump exposed the mainstream media and laid bare their hypocrisy and their inappropriately close relationship with the Washington D.C. establishment. I think this will be one of President Trump's most positive legacies, many people realized that you shouldn't trust what you see on tv, or what you read in the news. On the other hand, through his own constant, provable falsehoods he also taught people that perhaps you shouldn't trust what the President says either! A healthy amount of skepticism about our leaders is also a positive, in my view.
Part of the reason that my opinions on the Trump Presidency are so polarized is because of the many contradictions of the Trump Presidency. Donald Trump kept us out of the TPP, and in doing so he safeguarded American internet freedom. Donald Trump also appointed Ajit Pai, the man who killed Net Neutrality, to the FCC. The death of Net Neutrality undoubtedly opened the door for censorship and gave corporations more power over the internet. Another example, Donald Trump promoted job growth and championed returning jobs and industry to America, yet outsourcing actually increased over the course of his Presidency. Donald Trump signed the First Step Act and signed an Executive Order on Police Reform. He also pardoned non violent drug offenders. Trump was also quick to condemn George Floyd's death and to order a Federal Investigation into it. However, at the same time, he railed about the need for "Law and Order" and vowed to "get tough on crime". He ranted about "dominating" protesters. On the flipside, Trump called out the obvious hatred that a small but dedicated section of the far left has for our country. He opposed the removal of Confederate statues because he feared that next they would come for George Washington and Thomas Jefferson, among others. At the time, I viewed this as paranoia, but Trump was right. Not only did this group of extremists topple statues of George Washington and Thomas Jefferson, they went further, attacking Abraham Lincoln, Ulysses S. Grant, slavery abolitionists, and other Civil Rights icons.
His rhetoric often did not match his actions. Trump repeatedly vowed to end the wars and bring our troops home, only to be talked out of it by his own Generals. Trump focused on creating a strong economy, while enacting xenophobic immigration policies and attacking immigrants who are the people that keep our country's economy going.
Trump's foreign policy, again, a contradiction. Trump became the first sitting US President to meet with the Leader of North Korea, and was certainly the first US President in my lifetime to make a serious effort to deescalate tensions on the Korean peninsula. This is definitely a positive. On the other hand, Trump threw the Iran deal out the window and escalated tensions with Iran. Trump also called out our allies around the world, but particularly in NATO, for not fulfilling their treaty obligations to us. It is thanks to him that now many countries in NATO are raising their defense spending to at least attempt to fulfill their treaty obligations. Trump's foreign policy with regard to Russia and China was all over the place. One minute he's trying for détente, praising Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, the next he's piling on more sanctions, withdrawing from nuclear arms treaties, and hitting China in particular with massive, largely ineffective tariffs. Trump condemned the Chinese genocide of Muslims taking place in Xinjiang, but banned Muslims from many countries from even entering the United States. The Trump Administration also finally brought about peace between many Arab countries and Israel, with the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco all finally signing a formal peace treaty with Israel and agreeing to diplomatic recognition. In addition, Trump was able to finally bring about peace between Kosovo and Serbia, something that I personally thought was impossible, but is undoubtedly a positive achievement. Overall, Trump's foreign policy legacy is probably the most mixed and inconsistent of any Presidency in my lifetime. There's a lot that went very, very well, and a lot that went very, very wrong.
Now, finally let's talk about the big one, the Coronavirus Pandemic. I thought that Trump's handling of the pandemic in the very beginning was largely good. He blocked travel from China very early, told the American people what was going on, and began holding daily press briefings where he, and the other members of the Coronavirus Task Force, would update the American people on everything that was happening with the pandemic. It appeared as though Trump was finally leading our country, and was at least attempting to take things seriously. Trump even passed a Coronavirus Stimulus Bill that included 1200 dollar checks to every American, the first direct payment from the government that I have received in my lifetime, and proof that UBI is possible. However, it didn't take long for the cracks to start appearing. Trump started saying ridiculous, irresponsible things, calling the pandemic a "democrat hoax", questioning the efficacy of masks long after public health experts were saying that masks were a necessity. Trump stopped attending the daily Coronavirus Task Force briefings, and eventually stopped the briefings altogether. Trump capitulated to the virus and abdicated leadership.
Things only got worse from there, he mocked people for taking the pandemic seriously, held massive rallies full of crowds of people, many of whom got sick and died afterwards, and encouraged people in his own government to ignore the pandemic. This all culminated in Trump himself coming down with the virus. Thanks to the incredible doctors of Walter Reed Hospital and the many experimental and revolutionary treatments (many of which are not available to everyday Americans) Trump managed to plow through the virus like it was nothing (for now). We still do not know the long term effects of this virus, and it is possible that his health will take a turn for the worse in the coming years. His cavalier attitude towards the coronavirus was an unnecessary risk for himself and for our entire country, especially considering that he was the most powerful man on the planet, with more resources available to him to combat this virus than anyone else. Trump's failure on this front has resulted in 400,000 American deaths. Had he merely continued taking the virus as seriously as he did in the beginning, continued the daily press briefings, I think that number would be half what it is now.
And now, the final act of Trump's Presidency, the 2020 election. I don't even know what to say about this. Trump's behavior since the 2020 election has been nothing short of disgusting, reprehensible, and completely irresponsible. To casually accuse the other side of "rigging" the election, to present false evidence, to lie over and over again, to obfuscate, and to make Americans think that they are living in a Banana Republic where their votes do not matter is an affront to our values, our way of life, and our Constitution. It makes the MSM and Democrat led "Russiagate" hysteria of the last four years look reputable by comparison. (I purposely left Russiagate out of my diatribe up to this point, but I will summarize it briefly here. Russiagate has proven what lengths the D.C. establishment, the MSM, and the Democratic Party will go to in order to try and destroy someone who they think threatens their power.) Trump's behavior over the last few months has been sickening to see, and it makes Trump the very definition of a sore loser. He has caused incalculable damage to our democratic institutions, the Republican Party, and the Conservative movement in this country, and this part of his legacy will take years, if not decades, to repair.
The storming of the Capitol Building on the 6th was the logical outcome of 3 months of careless language, refusing to concede, claiming the election was rigged, presenting baseless claims as fact, and knowingly obscuring the truth for personal benefit. However, having said that, I do not believe that Trump is directly responsible for what happened inside the Capitol on January 6th. Trump has repeatedly condemned violence. Is he responsible for lying to his supporters and purposefully increasing their anger and paranoia? Yes. However, Trump's supporters are still adults who are ultimately responsible for their own actions, as evidenced by the many Trump supporting peaceful protesters who remained outside the Capitol, booing, jeering, and calling the police on those few who broke in and participated in the failed insurrection.
To conclude, for the few of you who reached the bottom of this post, I have, at times, strongly agreed with President Trump's actions, and there have been times when I've even considered voting for him. However, in the end, the negatives of Trump's Presidency far outweigh the positives, he was ultimately held back by his own character flaws, inexperience, authoritarian personality, and tragically, his mental illness. For this reason I can say conclusively that Donald Trump has been the worst President of the United States in my lifetime, although I do not believe he is the worst US President of all time, that position is reserved for Trump's idol, Andrew Jackson.

submitted by GamingGalore64 to centrist [link] [comments]

BCRX the Embarrassment of Riches

The aim of this article is to sum up all the relevant DueDiligence of the company in one single article. After discussing the value of each drug in the pipeline and giving them the fair value they deserve, we come to the conclusion that BCRX should currently be valued at $184.77. If you are looking for some extensive and detailed DD on the company, i think this is the article you look for, and I highly suggest you keep reading it. In case you find the given information useful, i encourage you to support the article in order to reach more people and rise awareness of how undervalued BCRX is.
If you want to dig deeper, check out u/bio9999 and the community BCRX, some of the informartion related with Galidesivir directly come from bio9999's posts.

About Biocryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Biocryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. BCRX, is a commercial-stage drug developer headquartered in Durham, North Carolina, that focuses on developing oral therapeutics for rare diseases.
https://preview.redd.it/h14qnmmii1g61.png?width=352&format=png&auto=webp&s=3be0a507d364bdbeeb4c4a9a2e781890858902f6

Unique staff team

The company was founded in 1996 and is currently led by Jon P. Stonehouse CEO, a renowned pharmaceutical executive with over 20 years of thought leadership. Stonehouse previously served as the Senior Vice President of Corporate Development at Merck. Among his numerous accomplishments, Stonehouse was responsible for the game-changing acquisition of Serono S.A in 2007, the largest biotechnology company in Europe at the time.
What makes Jon Stonehouse a unique CEO is the dedication he has towards patients through his commitment to working faster in order to bring life-saving rare disease therapeutics to patient populations around the world. His passion is further substantiated by the note he had pasted on his monitor during the 2021 JPM Healthcare Conference
https://preview.redd.it/9f8th8iji1g61.png?width=712&format=png&auto=webp&s=eb8376b619942b56af61eec34bde9262ecdcc19c

Institutional ownership

Apart from having a stellar management team, what prospective retail investors should also pay close attention to is BioCryst’s rockstar institutional investor syndicate, which includes both generalist industry stalwarts such as State Street/BlackRock and sector-specialist biotech funds like Baker Brothers/Sarissa Capital. Making institutions reach to own 78.77% of the company.
https://preview.redd.it/wf23vakki1g61.png?width=1305&format=png&auto=webp&s=2fc25facdf792148c474d72a1e923318456e326c

What should catch investors attention is Alex Denner, head of Sarissa Capital Management recently increasing his stake in the company, managing to own 5% of it. He is one of the most well known biotech investors in the industry. He is the largest inside shareholder of Biogen pharma, ticker BIIB, and notorious for not only finding incredibly deep value in preclinical companies, but for being an "active" vs passive role in their success.
After taking large positions in his value finds, he becomes an advocate for high level decisions from management that unlock shareholder value. He speaks up against possible bad M&A deals and has been known to bring two companies together to facilitate other deals.

Pipeline.

○ Orladeyo ™ (berotralstat) oral pill
Orladeyo is the first Oral approved treatment used to prevent swelling attacks in people with hereditary angioedema (HAE), disease which is estimated to affect 1 in 50,000 people.
Berotralstat is currently approved in two countries, on December the 3rd it got approved by the FDA in USA, and on January the 22nd in Japan. The company expects approval of Orladeyo in Europe to happen early Q2.
Before oral Orladeyo was approved for HAE, patients would only have treatments that required usage of needles. This dramatically reduced the quality of their life, making some of them quit using the treatment. That's the main reason why Orladeyo is a game changer.
After the approval, surveys on patients were done, showing a large number of new patients that were not treated before due to needles, now willing to be treated taking oral form Orladeyo pills.
https://preview.redd.it/iuh6qnrli1g61.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5228ca462d8e56709a8b5ddde1a5c0c6c10b4d71

As it's shown in the page 13th of the January 2021 Corporate Presentation (page 13), in their recently undergone survey, 59% of the patients expressed high willingness to use Orladeyo, and that number rised to 71% with Physician recommendation.
https://preview.redd.it/m7fffvomi1g61.png?width=1274&format=png&auto=webp&s=1facd08901d25f90de1a74b7e966d9503a748859

Additional surveys were undergone on patients using treatments from the competence "Cynrize, Haegarda, Takhzyro" and the results were the following ones (page 14).
https://preview.redd.it/utqjd8lni1g61.png?width=1274&format=png&auto=webp&s=bb6c59ce6f26fce2301d9bf2b0a47fc1fc4164e0

Number of Patients

USA
In the USA there are 10,000 patients, 7500 diagnosed and treated, 1700 diagnosed but not treated, 600 treated but not diagnosed.
Physicians expect to prescribe Orladeyo for over 41% of HAE patients. Conservatively thinking, taking 7,500 patients out of the total 10,000 pool in the USA, with over 41% of patients prescription ( page 16 ) we would conservatively aim for 3,075 patients.
Japan
On November the 5th Biocryst undergone an agreement with Torii Pharmaceuticals.
A local Japanese company that will be in charge of getting new patients to be treated with Orladeyo in Japan and commerzialing it.
After Orladeyo received the approval in Japan, Goichi Matsuda, president of Torii said the following words "Until now, HAE patients in Japan had no therapies approved to prevent attacks, so the approval of Orladeyo marks a significant advance in HAE treatment", "We are pleased to have the opportunity to bring the first oral treatment option to Japanese HAE patients and are actively preparing for the commercialization".
Japan has 2,500 HAE patients, and Biocryst conservatively expects to at least reach 500 patients this year.
Europe
It's estimated to be around 12,000 HAE patients in Europe. Following the physician prescription of over 41% of patients to prescribe (page 16) for Orladeyo. We get a total of 4,920 patients in Europe

Pricings/Revenue
Each patient will have to pay 485K/year to access the drug in USA. In Japan and Europe the pricing system changes since pricing and jurisdictions work in a different way there. Making it 200K/year.
With this yearly prices and the amount of patients defined before, we get the following results.
3,075 x 485K = 1,491,375,000$
500 x 200K = 100,000,000$
4,920 x 200K = 984,000,000$
Summing it all up we get 2,575,375,000$. From that number we have to subtract 74,625,000$ making it a total of 2,500,750,000$. The sustraction happens as a result of the undergone Royalty agreements with Torii Pharmaceuticals and Royalty Pharma.
In the following link, you will have access to a google sheet, where yearly revenues generated by Orladeyo is estimated. A wide range of multipliers regarding the total patient pool that Orladeyo could capture is added, ranging from ( 10%, 20%, 41% and 75%).Revenues have been estimated with the actual price of Orladeyo in 2021 485K/year, it also has an estimation looking forward to 2025, on how the price of the drug will rise due to inflation. Finally there is a chart that gives an idea of what the the market cap could reach to be using revenue multipliers.
Orladeyo value
Having in mind the discussed numbers before, Orladeyo alone will be generating 2,500,750,000$ a year, using the average mid-cap Biotech company multiplier x7. We get a total of 17,505,250,000$, meaning an increase of 99.40$ in the stock price.
https://preview.redd.it/rk2jrdpoi1g61.png?width=1403&format=png&auto=webp&s=02ebca8ee2255345dbf8cf4f02f092746398f66b
Orladeyo value: 99.40$ SP

○ Peramivir ™ (Rapivab)
Peramivir (Rapivab) is an antiviral drug for the treatment of influenza. Peramivir is a neuraminidase inhibitor, acting as a transition-state analogue inhibitor of influenza neuraminidase and thereby preventing new viruses from emerging from infected cells. It is approved for intravenous administration.
On 19 December 2014, the FDA approved Peramivir to treat influenza infection in adults. Peramivir has also been approved in Japan and South Korea and is available in Japan as Rapiacta and in South Korea as Peramiflu.
The U.S. government (department of Health and Human Services) gave BioCryst Pharmaceuticals more than $77 million to finish the Phase III clinical development of peramivir. In 2009 the department of Health and Human Services had already given about $180 million to the program.
In 2013 the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA/HHS) released new funding under the current $234.8 million contract to enable completion of a New Drug Application filing for intravenous (IV) peramivir.
Rapivab is a bio-defense drug that is often stockpiled by the government. Last time being September the 26th, with a purchase of $14 million.
Peramivir value
With all the explanations given above and having in mind Peramivir is a government bio-defense drug the value of Rapivab can not be less than $750,000,000 conservatively speaking.
https://preview.redd.it/g3xkfbjpi1g61.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=677f4881c4c1ec1b223a393356d826ef994cd59d

Peramivir value: $4.258 SP

○ Galidesivir - BCX4430
The NIAID and BARDA have been funding the development and testing of Galidesivir for over 15 years as they recognize its importance in preparation for all future pandemics. Recently, the 31st of August, 2020 NIAID Awarded $44 Million Contract to Advance Development of Galidesivir.
Besides COVID-19, the world suffers from 200 million infections per year from filoviruses (Ebola, Marburg), flaviviruses (Hepatitis C, West Nile, Dengue, Jap Encephalitis, Yellow Fever, TBEV, OHFV, and Zika), arenaviruses, bunyaviruses, orthomyxoviruses, picornaviruses and paramyxoviruses (think RSV). Galidesivir is the first antiviral that has ever shown such potential, and to top it off, it is now known from the Phase I trial and now the Brazil part 1 trial to clearly be safe and show dose-sensitive effects in people. And based on multiple animal studies, it works equally effectively as a pill that is stable for years at room temperature. Not only that, but this antiviral, unlike any of the others, has excellent penetration of the blood brain barrier as was seen in the macaque Zika virus study.
Efficacy
Phase I safety trials in humans had shown that it was safe and well tolerated .NIAID on April 9th 2020 its expansion of the Brazilian yellow fever trial to include three cohorts of 8 severely affected COVID-19 patients, each being given a different IV dose regimen . Unfortunately, but obvious in hindsight, this trial was from the beginning underpowered to determine a clinical benefit. The patients were followed for eight weeks after their treatments. The company on December 22nd announced that all three doses were perfectly safe for the patients. In addition, they found that patients had a dose-sensitive reduction in virus levels in their lungs. They went on to say that an animal model, which will likely be published shortly, showed that Galidesivir significantly reduced COVID-19-associated lung damage. Despite all this and even though the trial was not even powered to detect a clinical difference in the patients, the NIAID, after finding an insignificant difference in outcomes between the small numbers of drug-treated and placebo-treated patients, inexplicably decided to discontinue clinical trials of it for COVID-19, to the great confused dismay of investors and perhaps even taken advantage of by short hedge funds who brought the stock down in late December. Bear in mind that during this trial, one of the most lethal strains of COVID-19 we know of was affecting the Brazilian trial sites, later known now as the P.1 or Manaus strain, and could have easily negatively affected the clinical outcomes of this small trial too given that the trial was focused on very sick patients more likely to carry this bad strain.
Galidesivir value
First of all, we must have in mind that Galidesivir is a Government funded bio-defense drug, that aims to treat a wide range of viruses as explained before. Its global stockpiling for future pandemics is also an absolute certainty given its long-term stability. With all the explanations being given, conservatively talking Galidesivir can not be worth less than $2.5B, this is 14.20$.
https://preview.redd.it/la3l2rcqi1g61.png?width=1014&format=png&auto=webp&s=e7ad9c62790d7480afff31cfc35c4731ec86e078

Galidesivir value: 14.20$ SP

○ FOP - BCX9250
FOP is an ultra-rare, severely disabling condition characterized by the irregular formation of bone outside the normal skeleton, also known as heterotopic ossification (HO). HO can occur in muscles, tendons and soft tissue. Patients with FOP become bound by this irregular ossification over time, with restricted movement and fused joints, resulting in deformities and premature mortality. There are currently no approved treatments for FOP.
There are an estimated 3,500 to 9,000 patients worldwide, with 900 diagnosed so far. Currently there aren’t any approved treatments.
Market size for this treatment is estimated to reach 500M-900M in 2025, growing to 3B in 2028 as more patients are diagnosed. With a price ranging from $900K-$1M/year.
Last December the 21st Biocryst announced positive Phase 1 results
“BCX9250 was safe and well tolerated at all doses studied, with linear and dose-proportional exposure supporting once-daily dosing.”.
“In preclinical studies, BCX9250 demonstrated potency for the target kinase, selectivity, safety and strong suppression of HO in animal models.”
BCX9250 Value
BCX9250 study will most likely take 4 years to finish, this is, until 2025. By then the potential market we will be aimming for, will be $750,000,000 aprox.
Drugs that are in Phase 1 studies are said to have a 10% chance of making it to the market. Following that, BCX9250 as of now shuld be valued at $75,000,000 = 0.426$
https://preview.redd.it/xv4s7d8ri1g61.png?width=1256&format=png&auto=webp&s=63c2574e418ec445ceb92946478057c04b034d17

BCX9250 value: 0.426$ SP

○ Oral Factor D inhibitor - BCX9930
BCX9930 is a novel, oral, potent and selective small molecule inhibitor of Factor D currently in Phase 1 clinical development for the treatment of complement-mediated diseases.
The 3rd of August 2020, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted Fast Track designation for oral Factor D inhibitor, BCX9930.
Staff excitement
Staff team from Biocryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc seem to be really positive and excited about the incoming future of BCX9930. Such excitement has been seen in the last conference calls where staff members such as the CEO Jon P.Stonehouse, or the Vice President, William P.Sheridan would say the following words.
“Embarrassment of riches”. “We agree with Alexion that creating a potent specific and great oral Factor D inhibitor is a great challenge, and we are happy we have one” , “My only concern is i have no concerns”, “Pipeline in a molecule”, “My aim is to make c5 inhibitors obsolete”, “This is Big”.
Efficacy level
The key for efficacy with this kind of treatment is improving the number of Hb Hemoglobin levels. BCX9930 showed 3.8g/dL improvement ( page 31 ). The competence, Novartis showed 2.87g/dL improvement and Alexion 2.4-2.6g/dL.
https://preview.redd.it/5ow4oubsi1g61.png?width=1263&format=png&auto=webp&s=ef9f8339a593661c4741108fd09128ccfe0316e2

On December the 6th, 2020 BCX9930 data was released showing high potency and specificity for alternative pathway complement.
“BCX9930 monotherapy has the potential to inhibit both intravascular and extravascular hemolysis”,
“In the study, BCX9930 was highly specific for the alternative pathway and, after oral dosing of BCX9930 in primates, alternative pathway activity was completely suppressed.”
“These data demonstrate that BCX9930 is a highly potent and specific orally bioavailable Factor D inhibitor with potential for treatment of patients with PNH and other alternative pathway mediated diseases,” said Dr. William Sheridan”
Alternative Pathway
What makes BCX9930 be a game changer, is the wide spectrum of Alternative Pathway Dysregulation disease it can treat. It can treat up to 8 diseases (page 26) as of now, that is why insiders call it “Pipeline in a molecule”. The diseases it treats are the following ones.
https://preview.redd.it/hir48l0ti1g61.png?width=1273&format=png&auto=webp&s=36a8ee0c49df7d8d5fc1ca9a2c928f756430a6ef

PNH (Paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria)
aHUS (Atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome)
ANCA vasculitis (antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated vasculitis)
Lupus Nephritis
IgAN vasculitis
C3G (Glomerulonephritis)
PMN (Primary membranous nephropathy)
IgAN (IgA nephropathy)
Potential market size by 2025
Assuming BCX9930 will be approved by 2025, and it will be able to treat those diseases, we reach the following conclusion. The potential market size BCX9930 will be aiming for by 2025 scores up to 44.53B/year. Being that number obtained summing up the following ones.

“"PNH Treatment Market Size Worth $5.8 Billion by 2025"
“"The global systemic lupus erythematosus market size is expected to reach USD 3.08 billion by 2025"
“"aHUS, having in mind the disease prevalence (2 and 5.5)/MM, and the disease being treated with Soliris - 500,000$/ year. The worldwide market size should range between ( $7.5B and $20.5B)" We take 7.5B as conservative.
“"Vasculitis treatment market size forecast to reach $743.2M by 2025"
“"IgAN, having in mind the 1/3,707 incidence rate, and the yearly cost of the drug $12,456 we are aiming for a market size of $4,660,088,544"
“"Having in mind C3G can be treated with Soliris and it costs $500,000 a year. Summing up all those 45,700 patients the market size we aim for is 22.85B"

All this data can be more detailedly found in the following google sheet mentioned before.
Alexion buy out
On December the 12th, 2020 Alexion announced that AstraZeneca was going to buy them for 39B. More than 90% of their revenue comes from their “Factor D” C5 inhibitor, being that the main reason why AstraZeneca wanted that buy out to happen.
You might think, why does this matter?. Well, remember we have a Factor D which has shown to be more effective than Alexion’s, and is able to treat more diseases than they do aswell. This buy out reflects how undervalued BCX9930 is.
Apart from the buy out, i think it's essential to mention that Alexion bought Achillion's factor D when it was in ph 2 for $930MM.
In 2019 Alexion's SOLIRIS® (eculizumab) net product sales were $3,946.4 million. Soliris is currently approved to treat PNH adn aHUS. Have in mind BCX9930 is able to treat 6 diseases more, aimming for a wider market size, and also having greater efficacy/safety.
Using a biotech mid-cap x7 revenue multiplier 3,964B = 27,748B. meanning a SP value of $157.56 for BCRX. I want to make clear again that BCX9930 is said to be best in-class treatment and it's able to treat more diseases, this numbers could go much higher.
Phase II study
Despite the company not PR'ing the start of the phase II study of BCX9930, the official page of clinacal trials, show that the start of phase II study was December the 18th, 2020. This is extremely bullish since it reasures our thoughts that Ph I data readout will be good and enough to keep the study going.
https://preview.redd.it/9nbz3y6ui1g61.png?width=1509&format=png&auto=webp&s=77833ece74cc7adfb5797de905b3db239b6ae214
BCX9930 valuation
Having in mind BCX9930 is a potential best-in-class treatment, Alexion got bought out for 39B mainly for their “Factor D” c5 inhibitor and the yearly market size it aims for in 2025 rounds 44.53B. BCX9930 valuation can not be less than a 30% of Alexion’s buy out price, this is 11.7B meaning 66.44$. I want to make clear that once the drug is approved and generating revenue, the average x7 revenue can be used, making it much more valuable than it’s now. Do not forget data readout is due Q1.
https://preview.redd.it/gw1389xui1g61.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3a0071d67a1f1513b05c9a0055bc355d20643085

BCX9930 value: 66.44$ SP

Strong BO Buy Out candidate

As we have explained in the Institutional section before, all good bio-tech investors do know who Alexander J.Denner founder of Sarissa Capital is. After recently increasing his stake in BCRX, along with BlackRock, he now owns a 5.01% of Biocryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Denner, has increased his position in BCRX by an stunning 789% in the last 3 quarters, showing strong conviction in the company.
Since Denner opened his position in Alexion, it took him 5 months to close the buy out deal, as shown in the picture below
https://preview.redd.it/bh8cf54xi1g61.png?width=1300&format=png&auto=webp&s=a0f29d8baac51da14e88f333bd8271e43618ef81

After this exhaustive analysis on the company, we can easily acknowledge that BCRX is more than an strong BO candidate. A buy out coming from BIIB, company where Denner forms part of the BOD board of directors, would make total sense in the following 2 years once BCX9930 Factor D phase II data is unveiled.

Alexion's performance with Soliris

As we have explained before, Alexion pharmaceuticals has a Factor D "c5" inhibitor called Soliris.
This company could be the perfect example to have an idea of what we could expect from Biocryst's performance. From 2007 to 2014 Alexion's stock price grew a 1777%. Being valued at 10.5$ in 2007 and 186.6$ in 2014.
Revenue generated by Alexion gradually grew up as their Factor D was approved to treat additional diseases, and the market size they captured got wider.

Year	Soliris revenue	Stock price	Market cap	Events
2007	66.4 MM	18.6	2.8 B	Soliris approval for PNH
2008	259	18.06	2.95	Split 2:1
2009	368.8	24.5	4.2
2010	541	40.2	7.45
2011	783	74.4	13.10	Split 2:1 Soliris approved for aHUS
2012	1134	97.6	19.5
2013	1551	131.7	26.05
2014	2234	186.6	37.10

https://preview.redd.it/l5ezigxxi1g61.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e34d93d9f2d36d109b6207dfb100ff781d7bde7c

Biocryst Pharmaceuticals stock managing to do the SP move Alexion did, is more than doable with the unique pipeline it has. Having in mind Alexion made 66.4 MM revenue the first year while BCRX at least expects to generate 500 MM with Orladeyo, apart from it, additional revenue generated by Rapivab/Galidesivir stockpillings. Incoming Earning Reports are meant to be potential catalysts for the company, gradually becoming more meaningful as the market size they capture with Orladeyo becomes wider.

De-risked company

Last December the 7th, 2020 BCRX announced they made a Royalty agreement with Royalty Pharma and Athyrium Capital Management. With this agreement BCRX was funded with $325,000,000 in order to support Orladeyo launch. Setting the company in an attractive position of not needing to do any more money risings "offerings".
Jon Stonehouse CEO, also confirmed that the company will not need to do offerings anymore. The fact that the company is already generating revenue with Orladeyo is another strong evidence that confirms money risings will not be needed anymore.

Conclusion

After this exhaustive analysis, we come to the conclusion that BCRX sitting at $10.30 with a market cap of 1.82B is severely undervalued, and if we sum up the true value of the pipeline, it should be valued at 184.74$, representing a 1793% upside return. This stock price number will keep growing as we keep getting data updates from the on-going studies, making it an excellent long-term hold and buy out candidate.
Once the given information on the company is aknowledged, realizing how heavily the company has been manipulated by institutions, constantly making short pressure bigger in order to move the stock into ridiculous price levels, to be able to accumulate more shares at premium prices. Should not be of anyone's surprise, as this is a true "Embarrasment of Riches", like insiders call it, and they aim to load as much as thay can, at the very best premium prices.
Total value: 184.77$ SP

submitted by PitBullTrades to WallStreetbetsELITE [link] [comments]

China's Soft Power and ADR's

I've seen a few posts about ADRs recently talking about how all chinese stocks (NIO BABA TENCENT) are based in the Cayman Islands and no one's really buying stock in these chinese companies and that China has no need to uphold these agreements - As a disclaimer, before I go on, I was to say I do own stock in NIO and BABA as well as AMZN, AAPL and a few other small AI companies.
While many of you may be technically correct about ADRs, it fundamentally ignores the foreign policy climate of almost all countries and more specifically ignores the way China's foreign policy is being conducted right now - I'm not an expert and you should of course do your own DD but what I've noticed from all these posts is that they are all ignoring the idea of Soft Power.
Lets define what soft and hard power are: I've taken these definitions from wikipedia, because they're concise and as always wikipedia is well referenced (damn teachers!)
Soft power: In politics (and particularly in international politics), soft power is the ability to attract and co-opt, rather than coerce (contrast hard power). In other words, soft power involves shaping the preferences of others through appeal and attraction - Foreign Aid is an excellent example of the use of Soft Power
Hard Power: Hard power is the use of military and economic means to influence the behavior or interests of other political bodies. This form of political power is often aggressive (coercion), and is most immediately effective when imposed by one political body upon another of lesser military and/or economic power
Why is this important?:
While China is on its way to becoming a global superpower its not there yet, there are more economically reliable countries (US) and countries with more functional military might (Russia and US) - I say functional here because military might isn't just man power and number of soldiers.
China uses hard power when it comes to domestic policy, through the use of censorship, coercion of officials, imprisonment of dissidents and so on and so forth. (https://www.amnesty.org/en/countries/asia-and-the-pacific/china/report-china/)
However, they've also learnt from the collapse of the USSR which collapsed in part due their international and economic isolation among other factors (https://www.britannica.com/story/why-did-the-soviet-union-collapse) - Now China doesn't want that to happen and to ensure it doesn't, it's followed an interesting hybridisation of communism and capitalism where private companies are closely linked to the government but are allowed to compete and have private ownership. However this has meant that chinese companies and by extension China as a country has to be attractive to outside investors and that's where soft power comes in.
Throughout the pandemic and even before China has been trying to expand its soft power further in the hope of eventually leveraging itself into the world's leading super power. Case and point is the Free trade agreement it signed with 14 other asia-pacific countries creating an even larger free market than the eu (16% vs 22%) (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/nov/15/china-and-14-asia-pacific-countries-agree-historic-free-trade-deal). While this gives it more economic power, it also gives china great headlines!
This isn't the only way China is trying to garner a better image of itself and therefore more soft power - For a long time, China has been and is commonly viewed as one of the largest polluters in the world (https://ge.usembassy.gov/chinas-air-pollution-harms-its-citizens-and-the-world/#:~:text=The%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China,health%20and%20the%20world's%20economy.), pollution that has been killing around a million of its citizens a year - so to not only improve their citizens lives (though how much of the main motivation that is I'm very skeptical) but to also capture the ongoing trend of renewable energy becoming the dominant energy market in the next decade or two, China has been pouring money into clean energy initiatives, so they not only capture a significant slice of an upcoming dominant market but they are also able to position themselves as the clean energy capital of the world.
Let's be clear though, the current pandemic has affected their soft power and reduced it massively which leads onto the crux of my argument.
How Soft power relates to ADRs and Stocks?
For China to successfully follow through with their plans (leveraging soft power into economic might - the tried and tested american way to an extent - except america had WW2 and the Marshall plan to reach this point sidenote: I know that's massively reductive and there's a lot of other factors involved in america becoming a superpower including a shit load of hard power i.e. nuclear bombs and military might) they require investment not just from domestic sources but foreign sources otherwise they gain no soft power. So how does this relate the ADRs:
If China and Chinese companies were to renege on their agreements with these shell companies, it would lead to major banks, hedge funds and entire countries to disinvest from the chinese economy - a counterpoint I can imagine in the comments may be that it's technically not a reneging because the these chinese companies and chinese law doesn't state that you can own shares but the optics of it certainly are. Every major newspaper would be covering it, people who have invested would be using their soft power (their vote) to push for harder line on china and so would banks who would be disinvesting by their droves from chinese ADRs. I know I wouldn't be buying anything from China again because the risk is too high and that would be the most dangerous thing for the chinese government. They are trying and have until now succeeded in creating an image of a stable thriving economy
Disinvestment may sound sensationalist and to an extent I would agree it may be but the most recent example is BABA stock - The disappearance of Jack Ma not only lead to a massive drop in BABA stock but countless headlines about how dangerous it is to invest in Chinese companies - and while I'm sure Jack Ma when he returns will have to change to adapt to his potentially curbed reality, the chinese government will have also realised that they'll need to adapt to ensure that they don't lose the soft power they've spent over 40 years cultivating ( look up Deng Xiaoping's China reform and opening-up policy).
And to address comments that I'm sure will say China can be self sufficient without any foreign investments - I'm sure they can but that path has until now lead to ruin for other countries, the primary example being the USSR and a less prominent example being North Korea. The chinese government is ruthless, efficient and they're certainly not stupid.
Of course if anyone thinks I'm wrong, please let me know - I also understand that the BABA example is more nuanced than how far I've gone into it because of Jack Ma's Ant group going onto central bank turf but the logic behind the point stands.
TLDR: China would lose their soft power, banks and people would disinvest in China if they didn't honor their ADR agreements and would set China onto the path of future economic ruin and upheaval - I could be wrong though
Edit: Hong Kong is an interesting counterpoint to my argument, but I would say that to a certain extent, Banks knew HK would be bought under the CCP and still think they can make money there - also Hong Kong massively damaged Chinese Soft power and if there had been a better president I think the effect would have been huge but there wasn't and the markets are over it - if ADRs aren't honoured, then Banks and hedge funds would lose money and I think that that's their bottom line and a red line for them - I could be wrong though

submitted by Kingmaker251 to investing [link] [comments]

Lost in the Sauce: Russia hacks U.S. government, congratulates Biden; Trump silent.

Welcome to Lost in the Sauce, keeping you caught up on political and legal news that often gets buried in distractions and theater… or a global health crisis.
Housekeeping:

HOW TO SUPPORT: I know we are all facing unprecedented financial hardships right now. If you are in the position to support my work, I have a patreon, venmo, and a paypal set up. No pressure though, I will keep posting these pieces publicly no matter what - paywalls suck.
NOTIFICATIONS: You can signup to receive notifications when these posts are done.

Russia

Russian government hackers breached numerous U.S. agencies, including the Treasury, Commerce, and Homeland Security Departments, in a campaign that began as early as Spring 2020. CISA and the FBI are investigating, but officials say it is “too soon to tell how damaging the attacks were and how much material was lost.”

The global campaign, investigators now believe, involved the hackers inserting their code into periodic updates of software used to manage networks by a company called SolarWinds. Its products are widely used in corporate and federal networks, and the malware was carefully minimized to avoid detection.

Though the initial intrusion occurred earlier this year, Trump has decimated the cybersecurity arm of the federal government and failed to nominate confirmable leaders of Homeland Security. Last month, Trump fired the Director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, Christopher Krebs, for refusing to undermine the election. Around the same time, Assistant Director for Cybersecurity at DHS Bryan Ware and Deputy Director of CISA Matt Travis were also forced out.

DHS does not have a Senate-confirmed Secretary, Deputy Secretary, General Counsel, or Undersecretary for Management.
Additionally, there is no White House cybersecurity coordinator, no State Dept. cybersecurity coordinator, the National Security Agency Director is leaving on a romantic vacation in Europe, and the NSA general counsel is former Devin Nunes staffer Michael Ellis.

Finally, note that Russia has been behind hacks that knocked major U.S. hospitals offline during the pandemic and targeted vaccine makers across the world. In the lead up to the election last month, Russian hackers focused their attacks on American hospitals, often demanding a ransom to restore their systems. According to Microsoft, Russia and North Korea targeted "seven prominent companies directly involved in researching vaccines and treatments for COVID-19" around the world.
Russia’s FSB toxins team poisoned the opposition activist Alexei Navalny in August, after secretly following him on multiple previous trips. The squad shadowed him to more than 30 destinations on overlapping flights in an operation that began in 2017.

items recovered from Room 239 at the Xander Hotel were taken to Germany on the same medevac plane as Navalny. At least two subsequently tested positive for traces of Novichok, including a water bottle from the hotel room.

Appointees and nominees

The Senate voted on Wednesday to confirm three members to the Federal Election Commission, fully staffing the agency for the first time in nearly four years. It is also the first time the commission has had a voting quorum - enough to conduct business - since July, when it had four members for just 29 days.
The new commissioners are Shana Broussard (D), current FEC attorney and the first Black commissioner; Sean Cooksey (R), general counsel for GOP Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri; and Allen Dickerson (R), legal director of the Institute for Free Speech, which opposes campaign finance restrictions.

They join Ellen Weintraub (D) and Steven Walther (I), both appointed by George W. Bush, and James Trainor III (R), appointed by Trump. The FEC is designed to contain three Democrats and three Republicans. No party is permitted to have more than three members.

Carl Tobias, a professor at the University of Richmond School of Law: "These are last-minute kind of pushes by the outgoing administration and the Republican Senate majority," he said, meant to ensure that "the commission [will] not be very effective heading into Biden's presidency… It does seem like there is likely to be gridlock and the commission is not likely to do very much that's substantive."

Michael Pack removed the acting director of Voice of America on Tuesday, installing a controversial ally in his place. Pack, CEO of parent organization U.S. Agency for Global Media, replaced VOA director Elez Biberaj with George W. Bush-era director Robert Reilly. The move immediately garnered criticism as Reilly has an extensive history of homophobic and anti-Islamic writing.

NPR: Reilly's 2014 book, "Making Gay Okay: How Rationalizing Homosexual Behavior Is Changing Everything," argues strongly against gay marriage. In public remarks, he said at least a murderer or a consumer of pornography ultimately regrets what he or she does, but asked, "What if you organize your life around something that is wrong?"
NYT: President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. is likely to replace Mr. Pack once he assumes office, agency officials said. But Mr. Reilly may be harder to remove if language in the National Defense Authorization Act, a defense spending bill passed by the House, is signed into law that requires the U.S. Agency for Global Media’s chief executive to gain approval from an advisory board before replacing the head of a media network under their purview.

An investigation by the Veterans Affairs inspector general found that Secretary Robert Wilkie worked to discredit a congressional aide who said she was sexually assaulted in a VA hospital. According to the IG, Wilkie “obtained potentially damaging information about the veteran’s past,” leading his staff to pressure VA police to scrutinize her and try to discredit her in the media. The report (PDF) states Wilkie received this information from Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX), a former Navy SEAL, who served in the same unit as the female veteran, Andrea Goldstein. Crenshaw refused to cooperate with the investigation.
Further reading on appointees:

State Department acting Inspector General Matthew Klimow found that the majority of trips by Susan Pompeo over a two-year period had taken place without written approval from the State Department, despite the fact that her trips were considered official travel and paid for by US taxpayers.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has spent at least $43,000 in taxpayer funds to host a series of intimate dinners called the “Madison Dinners.” The guest lists for about two dozen of the dinners, held between 2018 and 2020, included American business leaders and conservative political officials.
On his way out of office, Trump rewards some supporters and like-minded allies with the perks and prestige that come with serving on federal advisory boards and commissions. He has appointed Kellyanne Conway to the board of visitors of the U.S. Air Force Academy; Elaine Chao, Lynn Friess (the wife of Republican megadonor Foster Friess, and Pamella DeVos (Education Secretary Betsy DeVos’ sister-in-law) as members of the board of trustees of the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts; Matt Schlapp, chairman of the American Conservative Union and husband of former White House Communications Director Mercedes Schlapp, to the Library of Congress Trust Fund Board.
Retired Army Col. Douglas Macgregor - a senior adviser at the Pentagon with a history of disparaging refugees and immigrants, spreading conspiracies, and other controversial rhetoric - was nominated by Trump for a spot on West Point's advisory board.
The Pentagon appointed China-hawk Michael Pillsbury to serve as the Chair of the Defense Policy Board, after purging members. In October, the Financial Times revealed that Pillsbury helped funnel dirt on Hunter Biden from China to the Trump administration.
The Office of Special Counsel issued a report finding that White House trade adviser Peter Navarro repeatedly violated the Hatch Act by using his official authority for campaign purposes.

Congress

The Senate approved the $740 billion bill National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) with a veto-proof majority, sending it to the president’s desk on Friday. Trump has threatened to veto the bill because it doesn't include a repeal of Section 230, but there are other rebukes of Trump’s policies including provisions to limit how much money Trump can move around for his border wall and another that would require the military to rename bases that were named after figures from the Confederacy.
Crucially, the NDAA also contains provisions that require anonymous shell companies to disclose their true owners, an aspect that may make it harder for Trump and his associates to move or hide money without scrutiny. The law requires anyone registering a new company to disclose the name, address, and date of birth of the real owners, and an identification number for each owner, such as a driver’s license or passport number. The law also applies to corporations and LLCs that already exist.
Sen. Ron Johnson, Chairman of the Senate Homeland Security Committee, has scheduled a hearing on Wednesday to examine alleged election “irregularities.” The meeting, two days after electors cast their votes, will feature former independent counsel Ken Starr and attorneys in key battleground states. Johnson says the hearings will help him decide whether to join House Republicans to challenge the electoral results on the floor in January.

"The election's not over," Johnson said when asked if he would run again, referring to the November election that Biden won. Asked when he would make a decision, Johnson said: "Once the election is over."

At a hearing on the pandemic last week, Sen. Ron Johnson invited a vaccine skeptic, a critic of masks, and two doctors who have promoted hydroxychloroquine to treat the coronavirus. Democrats boycotted the hearing and numerous Republicans opted not to ask questions; only Sens. Johnson, Rand Paul, and Josh Hawley took part.

“The panelists have been selected for their political, not their medical views. And for that reason the composition of the panel creates a false and terribly harmful impression of the scientific and medical consensus,” said ranking Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, in his opening statement before leaving the hearing.

As an example of the unfounded claims presented at the hearing, Dr. Jane Orient said “Maybe instead of putting masks on everybody, we should be putting lids on the toilet or pouring Clorox into it before you flush it.” Dr. Ramin Oskoui told the committee that wearing masks, social distancing, and quarantining do not work.
Further reading on Congress:

Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) and Mark Kelly (D-AZ) voted with Republicans against two resolutions aiming to block the Trump White House's sale of $23 billion worth of F-35s, Reaper drones, and missiles to the United Arab Emirates.
On her way out of Congress, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) joined Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) to introduce an anti-transgender bill. According to the two representatives, the bill - called the “Protect Women’s Sports Act” - seeks to clarify that Title IX protections for female athletes are based on “biological sex as determined at birth by a physician.”
Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) blocked legislation to establish a National Museum of the American Latino and American Women's History Museum as part of the Smithsonian Institution. Lee asserted the bill, which had bipartisan support, would “further divide an already divided nation with an array of segregated, separate-but-equal museums for hyphenated identity groups” (clip).
Self-dealing and stock trades: “While Kelly Loeffler Opposed New COVID Aid, Her Husband’s Firm Sought to Profit Off the Pandemic,” “How Kelly Loeffler’s Firm Facilitated an Enron-Like Scandal,” “Sen. David Perdue Sold His Home to a Finance Industry Official Whose Organization Was Lobbying the Senate,” “Perdue diverted military money to Trump's wall — while profiting from his own Pentagon bill.”

Miscellaneous

The FBI has subpoenaed Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton after his senior staff reported him for alleged corruption, bribery, and abuse of office. All seven whistleblowers have since been fired by Paxton. Four sued Paxton last month in Travis County District Court, claiming they were fired in retaliation, threatened, intimidated and falsely smeared by Paxton.

Some believe that Paxton filed his failed election lawsuit as a way to gain Trump’s favor and obtain a pardon before he leaves office. Remember, Paxton was already under indictment on felony securities fraud charges before the most recent subpoena.

Former CISA Director Christopher Krebs sued the Trump campaign and one of its lawyers, Joseph diGenova, for defamation. “He should be drawn and quartered, taken out at dawn and shot,” diGenova said of Krebs.
A three-judge panel of the 11th Circuit (two Trump appointees and an Obama appointee) denied the appeal of whistleblower Reality Winner, ruling she will remain in federal prison despite having pre-existing medical conditions and contracting Covid-19.
Other court cases: “Supreme Court Says Muslim Men Can Sue FBI Agents In No-Fly List Case,” NPR. “A Michigan judge rules companies don't have to serve gay customers. The attorney general says she'll appeal,” CNN. “Abortion medication restrictions remain blocked during pandemic, judge rules,” WaPo.
Two whistle-blowers have accused contractors building Trump’s border wall of smuggling armed Mexican security teams into the United States to guard construction sites. The complaint also states that the company submitted fraudulent invoices to the federal government, including for diesel fuel and overstating their costs.
U.S. border officials have expelled at least 66 unaccompanied migrant children without a court hearing or asylum interview since a federal judge ordered them to stop the practice.
Federal regulators and West Virginia agencies are rewriting environmental rules again to pave the way for construction of a major natural gas pipeline across Appalachia, even after an appeals court blocked the pipeline for the second time.
The Trump administration finalized a rule that could make it more difficult to enact public health protections, by changing the way the Environmental Protection Agency calculates the costs and benefits of new limits on air pollution.
World: “Trump administration helped GOP donors get Syria oil deal” and “The Israel-Morocco peace deal Donald Trump has brokered is risky: His recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara could lead to war.”

submitted by rusticgorilla to Keep_Track [link] [comments]

r/CoronavirusDownunder random daily discussion thread - 30 January, 2021

🇦🇺 National COVID-19 update as of 29/01

https://preview.redd.it/vo249z0if9e61.png?width=1172&format=png&auto=webp&s=27a7646aa3e1ab0a5ca5ffc1f864b5953b47a4aa

🌎 Other news

Feel free to talk about the COVID-19 situation in any country within this post and/or anything else you like as long as it is within the rules.

TYPE	SUBMISSION
💉 - Vaccines/World	J&J COVID-19 vaccine is 72% effective in the U.S., and 66% overall in large trial
	AstraZeneca publishes COVID-19 vaccine contract amid row with EU
Good news	4-year-old goes home after 8 months in hospital from COVID
🌏 Asia	🇯🇵 - Japan vaccine chief says nationalism of COVID-19 shots could disrupt global supplies
	🇮🇳 - India's vaccination platform readied to handle 10 million shots daily: official
	🇱🇧 - Coronavirus: Crowds torch government building as lockdown unrest continues
	🇹🇭 - Thailand on track to distribute locally made COVID-19 vaccines in June
	🇹🇼 - Taiwan to ban eating, drinking on trains to curb COVID-19
	🇻🇳 - Vietnam to begin mass COVID-19 testing after new outbreak - health official
	🇰🇷🇰🇵 - South Korea keen on providing vaccine aid to North Korea
	🇵🇭 - Philippines Extends Partial Coronavirus Curbs in Manila
	🇰🇵 - One year of COVID-19: When will North Korea reopen its borders?
	🇱🇰 - Three Army personnel vaccinated as Sri Lanka kicks off COVID-19 inoculation drive
	🇰🇷 - South Korea delays easing social distancing amid signs of another COVID-19 wave
🌍 Europe	🇮🇪 - Irish PM expresses concerns to EU chief over Northern Ireland protocol move
	🇪🇺 - EU restricts vaccine supply to Northern Ireland, UK considering response
	🇪🇺 - EU approves AstraZeneca COVID vaccine despite concern over older people
	🇳🇱 - Personal data stolen from Dutch COVID-19 track-and-trace programme
	🇵🇹 - Portugal’s third Covid wave ‘driven by UK variant’
	🇭🇺 - Hungary approves Chinese COVID vaccine
	🇪🇸 - Spain detects its first case of South African Covid-19 variant
	🇫🇷 - France expects 25 percent cut to Moderna vaccine delivery in February
	🇷🇴 - Romania COVID-19 hospital fire leaves four dead
	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 - Scotland to publish vaccine supply data amid EU row with AstraZeneca
	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 - Vaccine trial results 'exciting' and hopes of return for some pupils in Wales
	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 - Healthy young people receiving Covid vaccine in parts of England
	🇵🇹 - Portugal extends lockdown, restricts travel amid record Covid-19 surge
🌎 Americas	🇺🇸 - At Oklahoma COVID ward, staff fight to prevent lonely deaths
	🇨🇦 - Health Canada to decide on AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine in ‘coming days’
	🇨🇦 - Canadian couple who jumped Covid vaccine queue could face prison time
	🇺🇸 - Biden's COVID-19 response team resumes regular briefings with grim forecast
	🇨🇦 - Pfizer vaccine label changes could force Canada into global syringe race
	🇺🇸 - Column: How a South L.A. doctor is beating the system and distributing vaccines equitably
	🇧🇴 - Bolivian Doctors Demand Lockdown as COVID Surge Threatens Health Service 'Collapse'
	🇧🇷 - Patients in Brazil were simultaneously infected with TWO coronavirus variants – study
	🇨🇦 - Trudeau to impose new international travel restrictions as COVID-19 variants spread
	🇦🇷 - Argentina's COVID vaccination program relies on Russia's Sputnik V
	🇲🇽 - Mexico’s Covid-19 Death Toll Grows to World’s Third Highest
	🇨🇦 - How countries including Canada are trying to squeeze more COVID-19 vaccine from Pfizer-BioNTech vials
	🇧🇷 - Surging in remote and poor areas, Brazil's COVID-19 death toll is 2nd highest in the world
	🇺🇸 - Health experts warn of UK variant of COVID-19 in South Florida
Africa	🇰🇪 - Kenya aims to vaccinate 16 million people against COVID-19 by June 2022
	🇿🇼 - Wake-up call for elite as COVID-19 floods Zimbabwe's hospitals, killing rich and poor
	New coronavirus variants a fueling a ‘second wave’ in Africa, WHO warns
	🇹🇿 - Tanzania's Leader Denies COVID. Now Countrymen Push Back.
	Africa ramps up vaccine procurement tactics

Some numbers around the world 🌏️

🇰🇷 - SOUTH KOREA:

+469 (total cases: 77,395).
+13 (total deaths: 1,399).

🇹🇭 - THAILAND:

+802 (total cases: 17,023).
+0 (total deaths: 76).

🇦🇹 - AUSTRIA:

+1,500 (total cases: 411,730).
+51 (total deaths: 7,658).

🇸🇰 - SLOVAKIA:

+2,581 (total cases: 246,008).
+84 (total deaths: 4,495).

🇯🇵 - JAPAN:

+3,909 (total cases: 379,516).
+91 (total deaths: 5,452).

🇨🇦 - CANADA (as of 28/01):

+4,876 (total cases: 766,103).
+131 (total deaths: 19,664).

🇮🇱 - ISRAEL:

+5,096 (total cases: 633,991).
+31 (total deaths: 4,700).
Positivity rate: 9.3% (+0.1).
+38 (total hospitalisations: 1,774).
+29 (total ICU admissions: 424).
Vaccinated:
- 1st dose: 3M (+34K)
- 2nd dose: 1.7M (+53K)
Population vaccinated:
- 1st dose: 32.1% (+0.3)
- 2nd dose: 18.1% (+0.5)

🇲🇾 - MALAYSIA:

+5,725 (total cases: 203,933).
+16 (total deaths: 733).

🇵🇱 - POLAND:

+6,144 (total cases: 1,502,810).
+336 (total deaths: 36,780).

🇨🇿 - CZECHIA:

+7,937 (total cases: 972,642).
+54 (total deaths: 16,072).

🇵🇹 - PORTUGAL:

+13,200 (total cases: 698,583).
+278 (total deaths: 11,886).

🇮🇩 - INDONESIA:

+13,802 (total cases: 1,051,795).
+187 (total deaths: 29,518).

🇲🇽 - MEXICO:

+18,670 (total cases: 1,825,519).
+1,506 (total deaths: 155,145).

🇫🇷 - FRANCE:

+22,858 (total cases: 3,153,487).
+510 (total deaths: 75,620).

🇬🇧 - UK:

+29,079 (total cases: 3,772,813).
+0/TBA (total deaths: 103,126).

🇪🇸 - SPAIN:

+38,118 (total cases: 2,830,478).
+513 (total deaths: 58,319).

🇺🇸 - USA (as of 28/01):

+155,333 (total cases: 26,338,607).
+4,011 (total deaths: 443,769).
Positivity rate: 7.4% (-1.9).
-3,141 (total hospitalisations: 104,303).
-384 (total ICU admissions: 20,113).
Vaccinated:
- 1st dose: 22.8M (+1.1M)
- 2nd dose: 4.5M (+520K)

Our daily update is published. Our daily update is published. States reported 2.1M tests, 155k cases, 104,303 people currently hospitalized with COVID-19, and 4,011 deaths.

Hospitalizations fell by over 3,000 today. There were big drops across all the major outbreak states.

Hospitalizations are falling because cases are falling in every region. The West is back to pre-Thanksgiving levels. The Midwest is confirming fewer cases than at any time since mid-October.

Deaths remain very high nationally, driven by record numbers of deaths reported in the South and West.
https://preview.redd.it/et9gd2wptbe61.jpg?width=2448&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=97791026a381cce989b0cc4d54494aa26b512ac0
https://preview.redd.it/09r5h6fttbe61.jpg?width=2738&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2185ff8773fb8b7a8faf4f030d8f3d1a07e31742
https://preview.redd.it/uj9y3fyutbe61.jpg?width=2756&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=21643acbf0d7a0852c1ed8ba9c07e36959d84cd7

submitted by Stoaticor to CoronavirusDownunder [link] [comments]

A retard's take on China, ADRs(NIO BABA) and Soft Power

TLDR: China would lose their soft power, banks and people would disinvest in China if they didn't honor their ADVIE agreements and would set China onto the path of future economic ruin and upheaval like the USSR - I could be wrong though but read on for my analysis with references (mostly!)

I've seen a few posts about ADRs/VIEs recently talking about how all chinese stocks (NIO BABA TENCENT) are based in the Cayman Islands and no one's really buying stock in these chinese companies and that China has no need to uphold these agreements - As a disclaimer, before I go on, I was to say I do own stock in NIO and BABA as well as AMZN, AAPL and a few other small AI companies.
While many of you may be technically correct about ADRs/VIEs, it fundamentally ignores the foreign policy climate of almost all countries and more specifically ignores the way China's foreign policy is being conducted right now - I'm not an expert and you should of course do your own DD but what I've noticed from all these posts is that they are all ignoring the idea of Soft Power.
Lets define what soft and hard power are: I've taken these definitions from wikipedia, because they're concise and as always wikipedia is well referenced (damn teachers!)
Soft power: In politics (and particularly in international politics), soft power is the ability to attract and co-opt, rather than coerce (contrast hard power). In other words, soft power involves shaping the preferences of others through appeal and attraction - Foreign Aid is an excellent example of the use of Soft Power
Hard Power: Hard power is the use of military and economic means to influence the behavior or interests of other political bodies. This form of political power is often aggressive (coercion), and is most immediately effective when imposed by one political body upon another of lesser military and/or economic power
Why is this important?:
While China is on its way to becoming a global superpower its not there yet, there are more economically reliable countries (US) and countries with more functional military might (Russia and US) - I say functional here because military might isn't just man power and number of soldiers.
China uses hard power when it comes to domestic policy, through the use of censorship, coercion of officials, imprisonment of dissidents and so on and so forth. (https://www.amnesty.org/en/countries/asia-and-the-pacific/china/report-china/)
However, they've also learnt from the collapse of the USSR which collapsed in part due their international and economic isolation among other factors (https://www.britannica.com/story/why-did-the-soviet-union-collapse) - Now China doesn't want that to happen and to ensure it doesn't, it's followed an interesting hybridisation of communism and capitalism where private companies are closely linked to the government but are allowed to compete and have private ownership. However this has meant that chinese companies and by extension China as a country has to be attractive to outside investors and that's where soft power comes in.
Throughout the pandemic and even before China has been trying to expand its soft power further in the hope of eventually leveraging itself into the world's leading super power. Case and point is the Free trade agreement it signed with 14 other asia-pacific countries creating an even larger free market than the eu (16% vs 22%) (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/nov/15/china-and-14-asia-pacific-countries-agree-historic-free-trade-deal). While this gives it more economic power, it also gives china great headlines!
This isn't the only way China is trying to garner a better image of itself and therefore more soft power - For a long time, China has been and is commonly viewed as one of the largest polluters in the world (https://ge.usembassy.gov/chinas-air-pollution-harms-its-citizens-and-the-world/#:~:text=The%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China,health%20and%20the%20world's%20economy.), pollution that has been killing around a million of its citizens a year - so to not only improve their citizens lives (though how much of the main motivation that is I'm very skeptical) but to also capture the ongoing trend of renewable energy becoming the dominant energy market in the next decade or two, China has been pouring money into clean energy initiatives, so they not only capture a significant slice of an upcoming dominant market but they are also able to position themselves as the clean energy capital of the world.
Let's be clear though, the current pandemic has affected their soft power and reduced it massively which leads onto the crux of my argument.
How Soft power relates to ADRs/VIEs and Stocks?
For China to successfully follow through with their plans (leveraging soft power into economic might - the tried and tested american way to an extent - except america had WW2 and the Marshall plan to reach this point sidenote: I know that's massively reductive and there's a lot of other factors involved in america becoming a superpower including a shit load of hard power i.e. nuclear bombs and military might) they require investment not just from domestic sources but foreign sources otherwise they gain no soft power. So how does this relate the ADRs/VIEs:
If China and Chinese companies were to renege on their agreements with these shell companies, it would lead to major banks, hedge funds and entire countries to disinvest from the chinese economy - a counterpoint I can imagine in the comments may be that it's technically not a reneging because the these chinese companies and chinese law doesn't state that you can own shares but the optics of it certainly are. Every major newspaper would be covering it, people who have invested would be using their soft power (their vote) to push for harder line on china and so would banks who would be disinvesting by their droves from chinese ADRs/VIEs. I know I wouldn't be buying anything from China again because the risk is too high and that would be the most dangerous thing for the chinese government. They are trying and have until now succeeded in creating an image of a stable thriving economy
Disinvestment may sound sensationalist and to an extent I would agree it may be but the most recent example is BABA stock - The disappearance of Jack Ma not only lead to a massive drop in BABA stock but countless headlines about how dangerous it is to invest in Chinese companies - and while I'm sure Jack Ma when he returns will have to change to adapt to his potentially curbed reality, the chinese government will have also realised that they'll need to adapt to ensure that they don't lose the soft power they've spent over 40 years cultivating ( look up Deng Xiaoping's China reform and opening-up policy).
And to address comments that I'm sure will say China can be self sufficient without any foreign investments - I'm sure they can but that path has until now lead to ruin for other countries, the primary example being the USSR and a less prominent example being North Korea. The chinese government is ruthless, efficient and they're certainly not stupid.
Of course if anyone thinks I'm wrong, please let me know - I also understand that the BABA example is more nuanced than how far I've gone into it because of Jack Ma's Ant group going onto central bank turf but the logic behind the point stands.
Hong Kong is an interesting counterpoint to my argument, but I would say that to a certain extent, Banks knew HK would be bought under the CCP and still think they can make money there - also Hong Kong massively damaged Chinese Soft power and if there had been a better president I think the effect would have been huge but there wasn't and the markets are over it - if ADRs aren't honoured, then Banks and hedge funds would lose money and I think that that's their bottom line and a red line for them - I could be wrong though
Edit: The other response I've seen is that under chinese law VIEs are illegal and China can just declare them as such and we'd all be shit out of luck - and while yes it could do that, that would be one of the greatest acts of self harm conducted by a nation in history, there's around 2 trillion in Chinese VIEs (FT 2019 article - can't find the link rn), for China to declare them invalid would essentially be China putting itself into complete total international isolation and this idea also ignores the fact that China is also heavily invested in the US, owning around 1.1 trillion in US debt and the Yuan is tied to the dollar - all in all would be mutually assured destruction that China would most likely not recover from

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NL-ELECTS the House Speaker, 117th Congress, Pelosi v. McCarthy

1st Congress: Madison wins with 57.95 percent of the vote.
2nd Congress: Trumbull Jr. wins with 61.76 percent of the vote
This one has been released way earlier because the House elected its Speaker today, and so should we.
Now,
Nancy Patricia Pelosi
Pelosi is a Democrat who represents California's 12th Congressional district, which spans most of the City and County of San Francisco, in the House.
Pelosi has previously served as the House Speaker from 2007 to 2011 and from 2019 to 2021.
Her political positions:

Pelosi was a founding member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus.
The American Civil Liberties Union’s Congressional Scorecard has given Pelosi a lifetime rating of 92% for her voting record on civil liberties.
In 2001, she voted in favor of the USA Patriot Act, but voted against reauthorization of certain provisions in 2005.
She voted against a Constitutional amendment banning flag-burning.
Pelosi voted against the Secure Fence Act of 2006.
Pelosi has long supported LGBT rights. In 1996, she voted against the Defense of Marriage Act. In 2004 and 2006, she voted against the proposed Federal Marriage Amendment, which would've amended the US Constitution to define marriage federally as being between one man and one woman.
The LGBT advocacy group Human Rights Campaign gave Pelosi a 100% rating in 2006 for her voting record in the 107th through 109th congresses (2001–2006), indicating that she voted favorably on legislation supported by the organization on every occasion.
Pelosi supports the Equality Act, a bill that would expand the federal Civil Rights Act of 1964 to ban discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity.
Pelosi also opposes Trump's transgender military ban.
Pelosi supports reform in marijuana laws, she also supports use of medical marijuana.
Pelosi supports the Bush/Obama NSA surveillance program PRISM.
Pelosi voted against the 1995 Balanced Budget Proposed Constitutional Amendment
She also spearheaded the Fair Minimum Wage Act of 2007 as part of the 100-Hour Plan. The Act raises the minimum wage in the United States and the territories of the Northern Marianas Islands and American Samoa.
Pelosi opposed the welfare reform proposed by President Bush as well as reforms proposed and passed under President Clinton. She also opposed the tax reform signed by President Trump in December 2017.
In 1999, Pelosi voted against displaying the Ten Commandments in public buildings, including schools. Pelosi voted for the No Child Left Behind Act, which instituted testing to track students' progress and authorized an increase in overall education spending.
Pelosi has supported the development of new technologies to reduce U.S. dependence upon foreign oil and remediate the adverse environmental effects of burning fossil fuels.
Pelosi has blocked efforts to revive offshore oil drilling in protected areas.
Pelosi was instrumental in passing the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010.
She does not endorse Senator Bernie Sanders' bill for single-payer healthcare.
Pelosi voted against the Partial-Birth Abortion Ban Act of 2003 and earlier attempts at similar bans.
She has voted in favor of lifting the ban on privately funded abortions at overseas U.S. military facilities.
Pelosi stands in favor of increased background checks for potential gun owners, as well as the banning of assault weapons.
Pelosi opposes reinstating the military draft.

Pelosi's foreign policy

In 2008, after a meeting with the Dalai Lama and officials in the Tibetan government-in-exile, Pelosi criticized the People's Republic of China for its handling of the unrest in Tibet; addressing a crowd of thousands of Tibetans in Dharamsala, India, Pelosi called on "freedom-loving people" worldwide to denounce China for its human rights abuses in Tibet.
Pelosi criticized the imprisonment of Hong Kong democracy activists in August 2017.
Before the Trump administration took concrete measures against China in late March 2018, Pelosi and other Democratic leaders pressed Trump to focus more on China and impose real punishments, such as fulfill his own campaign commitments to label China a currency manipulator and stop China from pressuring U.S. tech companies into giving up intellectual property rights.
In September 2019, Pelosi met with Hong Kong pro-democracy activist Joshua Wong on Capitol Hill.
Pelosi publicly scolded Colombian president Álvaro Uribe during Uribe's May 2007 state visit to America.
Pelosi supports normalization of relations with Cuba.
Pelosi opposed U.S. intervention in the 1991 Gulf War.
In 2016, Pelosi opposed two bills that if enacted would block Iran's access to the dollar and impose sanctions for its ballistic missile program.
She supports the Iran nuclear deal.
In 2002, Pelosi opposed the Iraq Resolution authorizing President George W. Bush to use military force against Iraq.
Pelosi's voting record shows consistent support for Israel.
Pelosi supported Israel in the 2014 Israel–Gaza conflict.
Nancy Pelosi is one of the few members of Congress to have traveled to North Korea. She has expressed concern about the danger of nuclear proliferation from the North Korean regime, and the ongoing problems of hunger and oppression imposed by that country's leadership.
Pelosi has generally taken a hard stance against Putin and Russia.
Pelosi supports the Syria Accountability Act and Iran Freedom and Support Act.
Pelosi supported the NATO-led military intervention in Libya in 2011. She also favored arming Syria's rebel fighters.
In mid-October 2007, after the House Foreign Affairs Committee passed a resolution to label the 1915 killing of Armenians by Ottoman Turks as genocide, Pelosi pledged to bring the measure to a vote. (The resolution was actually passed during her second term as Speaker in 2019.)

Kevin Owen McCarthy
Kevin McCarthy is a Republican who represents California's 23rd Congressional district which includes parts of the southern San Joaquin Valley, the Tehachapi Mountains and southern Sierra Nevada, and the northwestern Mojave Desert. It comprises most of Kern County and portions of Los Angeles and Tulare counties. Cities in the district include Porterville, Ridgecrest, most of Bakersfield, and part of Lancaster.
He previously served as House Majority Whip from January 3, 2011 to August 1, 2014 and House Majority Leader from August 1, 2014 to January 3, 2019.
His political positions:

McCarthy is a supporter of the Hyde Amendment, and in 2011 co-sponsored a bill, the "No Taxpayer Funding for Abortion Act" (NTFAA), to make the Hyde Amendment permanent.
McCarthy received a 100% rating from the National Right to Life Committee, and a 0% rating from NARAL Pro-Choice America.
On September 17, 2020, McCarthy voted against House Resolution 908 to condemn racism against Asian-Americans related to the COVID-19 pandemic.
McCarthy was an early supporter of Trump in the 2016 Republican presidential primaries.
In October 2019, McCarthy said "there's nothing that the president did wrong" in regards to President Trump requesting that the Ukrainian President start an investigation into 2020 Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden.
McCarthy has been frequently at odds with environmental groups; the League of Conservation Voters has given him a lifetime score of 3%.
McCarthy does not accept the scientific consensus on climate change, that is to say, he's a climate change denier.
In 2011, McCarthy was the primary author of the "Wilderness and Roadless Area Release Act" (H.R. 1581), legislation that would strip 60 million acres of public lands of protected status.
McCarthy received campaign donations from Saudi Arabia's lobbyists.
McCarthy voiced support for Hong Kong protesters.
McCarthy supported killing Soleimani.
McCarthy said he supported Israel's planned annexation of the West Bank.
As House majority leader, McCarthy led efforts to repeal the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA or Obamacare).
McCarthy opposed the Matthew Shepard and James Byrd Jr. Hate Crimes Prevention Act of 2009, which added perceived gender, sexual orientation, gender identity, and disabilities as protected classes under existing federal hate crimes law. He has voted against the Local Law Enforcement Hate Crimes Prevention Act of 2007.
Throughout 2018, McCarthy opposed efforts to codify the legal status of DREAMers after Trump suspended Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) which provided temporary stay for undocumented immigrants brought to the United States as minors.
McCarthy supports the ICE and co-authored a resolution in support of it in 2018.
McCarthy was a supporter of the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA), which barred federal recognition of same-sex marriage and banned same-sex couples from receiving federal spousal benefits.
McCarthy has a "D-" rating from National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws regarding his voting record on cannabis-related matters.
In August 2018, McCarthy co-signed a letter spearheaded by John Garamendi, Jared Huffman and Mike Thompson, calling for Trump to "send more federal aid to fight" the wildfires across the state of California.
McCarthy introduced the FORWARD Act in 2018, which "would provide $95 million in research funding for valley fever and other fungal diseases". The bill provides $5 million for a "blockchain pilot program", facilitating sharing data between doctors and scientists researching such diseases. It would also fund $8 million in matching grant money to be awarded every year for five years to local groups applying for research grants, as well as $10 million each year for five years to CARB-X, a U.S. Department of Health and Human Services public-private partnership.
On October 23, 2018, McCarthy tweeted that George Soros, Tom Steyer and Mike Bloomberg, were trying to “buy” the upcoming midterm election.
McCarthy claims that social media platforms, such as Twitter, are actively censoring conservative politicians and their supporters.

VOTE HERE!

Photo of Pelosi marching for LGBTQ+ rights in 1987, during the Reagan Administration
NO PROTEST VOTES!

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Lost in the Sauce: Barr's DOJ shut down investigations of Trump and admin officials

Welcome to Lost in the Sauce, keeping you caught up on political and legal news that often gets buried in distractions and theater… or a global health crisis.
Housekeeping:

HOW TO SUPPORT: I know we are all facing unprecedented financial hardships right now. If you are in the position to support my work, I have a patreon, venmo, and a paypal set up. No pressure though, I will keep posting these pieces publicly no matter what - paywalls suck.
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Post-election

On Saturday, Trump announced on Twitter that he has put his personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani in charge of his campaign's long-shot post-election legal challenges. Other people on the team include Joseph diGenova, Victoria Toensing, Sidney Powell, and Jenna Ellis.

Giuliani worked with a Russian agent to smear Biden. diGenova and Toensing tried to get the Justice Department to drop charges against corrupt Ukraine oligarch Dmytro Firtash. Powell represents Michael Flynn and champions "deep state" conspiracies. Ellis said gay marriage leads to pedophilia.

NYT: Mr. Trump turned to Mr. Giuliani earlier on Friday in reaction to the latest setback he faced in court, this one relating to votes in Maricopa County, Arizona… A half-dozen other Trump advisers have described Mr. Giuliani’s efforts as counterproductive and said that he was giving the president unwarranted optimism about what could happen… In an Oval Office meeting with aides on Thursday, Mr. Trump put Mr. Giuliani on speakerphone so the others could hear him. He angrily accused the aides of not telling the president the truth

Giuliani’s conspiracy-riddled rant at Four Seasons Total Landscaping was so disastrous that it “scared off many of the lawyers” recruited to argue election-related lawsuits. Politico: “Campaign officials described the episode as disastrous...there are widespread concerns within Trumpworld and GOP circles that Giuliani’s antics are thwarting the president’s legal machinery from within.”
Two major law firms have withdrawn from Trump campaign cases as his legal challenges crumble. Arizona’s largest law firm Snell & Wilmer dumped the RNC and Trump campaign effort to challenge votes in Maricopa County. Porter Wright Morris & Arthur is abandoning Trump’s attempt to block Pennsylvania's popular vote for Joe Biden.

In one day (Friday), nine cases meant to attack President-elect Joe Biden's win in key states were denied or dropped - seven in Pennsylvania, one in Arizona, and one in Michigan.

The new federal chief information security officer, Camilo Sandoval, has already taken leave from his day job to participate in a pro-Trump effort to hunt for evidence of voter fraud in the battleground states. The group, Voter Integrity Fund, is a newly formed Virginia-based group that is analyzing ballot data and cold-calling voters. Sandoval was officially appointed on Nov. 4, 2020, but lists his starting date at October on his personal LinkedIn page.

WaPo: Sandoval is part of a hastily convened team led by Matthew Braynard, a data specialist who worked on Trump’s 2016 campaign. Another participant is Thomas Baptiste, an adviser to the deputy secretary of the Interior Department who also took a leave to work on the project. Braynard said in an interview that several other government officials on leave are also assisting the effort, but he declined to identify them.

Media’s role:

Facebook Cut Traffic To Leading Liberal Pages Just Before The Election: Liberal page administrators who spoke with BuzzFeed News said that their reach declined by as much as 70%, and still hasn’t recovered.
Facebook Live Spread Election Conspiracies And Russian State-Controlled Content Despite Employee Fears: The social network’s live video tool has recommended videos featuring misinformation and the hyperpartisan views of Trump allies leading up to and following election day in the US.
In the week after the election, Trump’s postings dominated Facebook, accounting for the 10 most engaged status updates in the United States, and 22 of the top 25. “I WON THIS ELECTION, BY A LOT!” was his top post.
YouTube Is Doing Very Little to Stop Election Misinformation From Spreading
Social media app Parler receives financial backing from conservative hedge-fund investor Robert Mercer and his daughter Rebekah, The Wall Street Journal reported. Parler turned into a kind of de facto home for conservatives’ protests against the election— including the persistent “Stop the Steal” campaign— after the race was called for former Vice President Joe Biden. Several high-profile conservative social media personalities encouraged people to abandon Twitter and Facebook because of their moderation policies, and instead follow them on Parler.

Transition

Emily Murphy, the head of the General Services Administration, still hasn’t signed the official letter that would allow the incoming Biden team to formally begin the transition. House Democrats are assessing options to force the GSA’s hand, which could include summoning Murphy to the Hill to testify or suing her. “Obviously, Congress could file suit against the GSA administrator for failing to do her duty. We could seek to get a court to, in fact, issue an order

Her ascertainment is the legally necessary precursor to the government’s assistance to the Biden-Harris Presidential Transition Team. It releases $6.3 million dollars to the team, which is funded by public and private money; a loan of expanded federal office space and equipment; access to government agencies that will begin sharing information and records about ongoing activities, plans and vulnerabilities; national security briefings for the president; and other support.

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence recently confirmed that it is not providing national security briefings to the president-elect. The Defense Department has also reportedly indicated that it will not meet with the Biden-Harris transition team until Murphy formally affirms the apparent winner.

One of the officials fired in Trump’s latest purge was helping prepare for the transition to the new administration. USAID Deputy Administrator Bonnie Glick was removed abruptly to make way for a Trump loyalist after she had been supportive of transition planning, including the preparation of a 440-page manual for the next administration.
The GSA’s refusal to enact the transition has locked Biden’s team out of crucial Covid-19 pandemic data and government agency contacts. The president-elect’s Covid-19 task force has been trying to work around the federal government by connecting with governors and the health community.

The head of Operation Warp Speed, Moncef Slaoui, called on the White House to allow contact with the Biden team, saying “It is a matter of life and death for thousands of people.”

White House’s Office of Management and Budget is considering 145 new regulations and other policy changes they could enact before Biden’s inauguration - rules that will be challenging to undo once they are finalized. Critics and supporters of the administration say they expect a final burst of regulations to be finalized in the weeks before Jan. 20.

The rules under development include policies that the incoming Biden administration would probably oppose, such as new caps on the length of foreign student visas; restrictions on the Environmental Protection Agency’s use of scientific research; limits on the EPA’s consideration of the benefits of regulating air pollutants; and a change that would make it easier for companies to treat workers as independent contractors, rather than employees with more robust wage protections.

Last week, both Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said they’re preparing for a second Trump term. “There will be a smooth transition to a second Trump administration,” Pompeo said during a news conference Tuesday afternoon (clip). Pompeo then doubled down on Fox News (clip). “We are moving forward here at the White House under the assumption there will be a second Trump term,” Navarro said on Fox Business Friday (clip).

DOJ interference

Attorney General William Barr stopped career prosecutors in DOJ’s Public Integrity Section from investigating whether President Trump broke any laws related to his conduct with Ukraine last year. The section was initially given the green light to pursue “a potentially explosive inquiry” into Trump, but after the Senate acquitted the president during impeachment proceedings, Barr sent the case to the U.S. attorney’s office in Brooklyn.
Prosecutors in DOJ’s Public Integrity Section were also prevented from bringing charges against former interior secretary Ryan Zinke by political appointees atop the Justice Department. Deputy Attorney General Jeffrey Rosen told prosecutors that they needed to gather more evidence and refine the case against Zinke for lying to Interior investigators.

The investigation into Zinke stemmed from his decision to block two Native American tribes—the Mashantucket Pequot and Mohegan—from opening a casino in Connecticut. Zinke’s office had been lobbied heavily by MGM Resorts International, which had been planning to open its own casino very close to where the tribes intended to break ground.

Sixteen assistant U.S. attorneys specially assigned to monitor malfeasance in the 2020 election urged Barr on Friday to rescind his memo allowing election-fraud investigations before results are certified. "It was developed and announced without consulting non-partisan career professionals in the field and at the Department. Finally, the timing of the Memorandum's release thrusts career prosecutors into partisan politics," the prosecutors wrote.
An internal Justice Department investigation found that federal prosecutors who oversaw a controversial non-prosecution deal with Jeffrey Epstein in 2008 exercised “poor judgment” but did not break the law. “They just say he used poor judgment, and that's their way of basically letting everyone off the hook while offering some sort of an olive branch to the victims that we acknowledge weren't treated perfectly,” said Brad Edwards, who sued the DOJ in 2008 on behalf of Epstein accusers.

Immigration news

Eastern District of New York Judge Nicholas Garaufis (Clinton-appointee) ruled that Chad Wolf was not legally serving as acting Homeland Security secretary when he signed rules limiting DACA program applications and renewals. Therefore, in a win for Dreamers and immigration activists, Garaufis said the changes were invalid.

The judge described an illegitimate shuffling of leadership chairs at the Department of Homeland Security, the agency responsible for immigration enforcement, for the predicament of Wolf's leadership and that of his predecessor, Kevin McAleenan.
"Based on the plain text of the operative order of succession," Garaufis wrote in the Saturday ruling, "neither Mr. McAleenan nor, in turn, Mr. Wolf, possessed statutory authority to serve as Acting Secretary. Therefore the Wolf Memorandum was not an exercise of legal authority."

There's a renewed push to get Chad Wolf confirmed as Homeland Security secretary -- a position in which he's been serving in an acting capacity for a yearr -- before Inauguration Day. In the past week, Homeland Security officials spoke to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's office about bringing the nomination to a floor vote in the coming weeks.

Within the last six months, as the coronavirus pandemic gripped the US, the Trump administration filed 75 lawsuits to seize private land along the US-Mexico border for the border wall." People right now are having to choose between their health and their homes," said Ricky Garza, a staff attorney at the Texas Civil Rights Project, a legal advocacy group.
After a series of price increases, Trump’s border project will cost taxpayers $20 million per mile of border fence. A review of federal spending data shows more than 200 contract modifications, at times awarded within just weeks or months after the original contracts, have increased the cost of the border wall project by billions of dollars since late 2017.
DHS has expelled unaccompanied immigrant children from the US border more than 13,000 times since March, using the coronavirus as an excuse to deny children their right to asylum. Previously, unaccompanied children were sent to government-run shelters as they attempted to pursue their asylum cases.
Migrant children from Central America are being expelled to Mexico, where they have no family connections. The expulsions not only put children in danger - the policy violates a diplomatic agreement with Mexico that only Mexican children and others who had adult supervision could be pushed back into Mexico after attempting to cross the border.
The House Judiciary Committee released a report on the Trump administration’s policy of separating families at the border, revealing that the federal agency that cares for migrant children was not told about the policy. The chaos contributed to the inability to later reunite parents and children.
The Trump administration is trying to deport several women who allege they were mistreated by a Georgia gynecologist at an immigration detention center. Hours after one detained woman spoke to federal investigators about forced hysterectomies at a Georgia detention center, she said ICE told her that it had lifted a hold on her deportation and she faced “imminent” removal. Six former patients who complained about Dr. Mahendra Amin had already been deported.
Northern District of Illinois Judge Gary Feinerman (Obama-appointee) blocked a key Trump administration policy that allowed officials to deny green cards to immigrants who might need public assistance Advocates who had feared that the policy would harm tens of thousands of poor people, particularly those affected by widespread job loss because of the coronavirus pandemic.

Miscellaneous

Microsoft said it has detected attempts by state-backed Russian and North Korean hackers to steal valuable data from leading pharmaceutical companies and vaccine researchers. “Among the targets, the majority are vaccine makers that have COVID-19 vaccines in various stages of clinical trials.”
Two census takers told The AP that their supervisors pressured them to enter false information into a computer system about homes they had not visited so they could close cases during the waning days of the once-a-decade national headcount.
The Supreme Court on Tuesday signaled it’s unlikely to tear down Obamacare over a Republican-backed lawsuit challenging the landmark health care law. Chief Justice John Roberts and Trump appointee Justice Brett Kavanaugh strongly questioned whether the elimination of the mandate penalty made the rest of the law invalid. Kavanaugh appeared to signal on several occasions that he favored leaving the rest of the law intact if the mandate is struck.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) was sued last week by four whistleblowers claiming that he abused his office to benefit himself, a woman with whom he was said to have had an affair, and the wealthy donor who employs her before retaliating against the members of his staff who reported him to the FBI.
The Trump administration is rushing plans to auction drilling rights in the U.S. Arctic National Wildlife Refuge before the inauguration of Biden, who has vowed to block oil exploration in the rugged Alaska wilderness. Biden’s efforts could be complicated if the Trump administration sells drilling rights first. Formally issued oil and gas leases on federal land are government contracts that can’t be easily yanked.

submitted by rusticgorilla to Keep_Track [link] [comments]

CMV: US Cyber Operations are more Beneficial than Detrimental

TLDR: China harmed us, Russia harmed us, now it's payback time to stop the hackers and improve our military. Also we say US democracy/standards is number one priority and should continue.
Contention 1: Crime & Terror
In the status quo, White House officials calculate that Chinese hacking has cost the United States more than 57 billion dollars annually, and they expect this number to grow if nothing is done.
Moreover, according to the NSA: “These networks often undergo a full array of tactics and techniques used by Chinese state-sponsored cyber actors to exploit computer networks of interest that hold sensitive intellectual property, economic, political, and military information,”
At one point, China hacked Equifax, stealing the personal information of over half of all Americans.
Even if CON’s source is correct that severe harm won’t be caused, there is still harm being caused and China is pushing for it to be acceptable internationally. This means that in the long run, smaller harms will compound & amount to larger impacts. The idea that, given no retaliation from the US, the Chinese would stop their barrage of cyberattacks on their own is foolish. The entire appeal to cyberattacks is that they are so cheap to create and use that it doesn’t matter how good a nation’s cyberdefenses are: one breach yields a net profit. Before CON counters that the US’ trade partnership with China prevents Chinese hacking, there are a few reasons why China will continue to attack unless you affirm:

China will continue to target the US as long as they can get away with it with no repercussions. As long as it is more profitable than not, China will do it, and China HAS been doing it. CON will say this is proof of failure of the new 2018 cyber strategy, but the US hasn’t actually been following through on its 2018 cyber strategy as of yet. If you affirm, they will actually make use of the strategy as they will now be “using offensive cyber operations.” Additionally, coercion takes time. We have to wait for true results to show, as geopolitical strategies are designed to play out over the course of decades.

Criminal groups have become more digitized than ever before. According to the UN in 2019, “almost all organized criminal groups will use some type of networked technology to organize themselves and their crimes, some are also using those technologies to commit cybercrimes.”
As criminal groups become more digitized and streamlined, they become harder for law enforcement to counter without technological developments of their own. Even worse, as the ASP cites:
“The 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment by the U.S. Intelligence Community highlights the concern that “financially motivated cyber criminals” may target the U.S. within the next few years. They warn that this could “disrupt U.S. critical infrastructure in the health care, financial, government, and emergency service sectors.” Officials are also concerned that terrorists may hack into databases and obtain personal information that could be used to inspire and enable physical attacks.
The threat of cyberterrorism has grown ever more pressing in the past few years. As of 2018, 81% of Americans viewed cyberterrorism as a critical threat—an increase from 73% in 2016. There is bipartisan consensus regarding the danger, as Democrats and Republicans express similar concern. Cyberterrorism is considered the second most critical threat to our country, just behind the development of nuclear weapons by North Korea.
Moreover, American military servicemembers assess cyberterrorism to be the greatest danger to U.S. national security. 89% of service members believe that it is a significant or very significant concern, but the majority thinks the U.S. lacks preparedness for a cyberattack. About a third disapprove of existing policies on combatting cyberterrorism, with many believing the guidelines do not go far enough.”
Thankfully, the FBI, CIA and other agencies like the NSA can use offensive cyber operations like hacking and wiretapping to exploit the digital networking of these organizations, gather intel, and eventually take them down, both domestically and abroad through cooperation with other countries.
As Foreign Affairs writes in 2018, “In countries where technology companies are willing to cooperate with the U.S. government (or with requests from their own government), a phone call to the right cloud provider or Internet service provider (ISP) could result in getting bad actors kicked off the Internet. This is not a permanent solution, but it will force adversaries to rebuild, which often prompts unforced errors, making them more vulnerable to U.S. surveillance and disruption.
...In situations where the defense of the nation is on the line, U.S. hackers could pursue a campaign of erasing computers at scale, disabling accounts and credentials used by hackers to attack, and cutting off access to services so it is harder to compromise innocent systems to conduct their attacks. Such a campaign would aim to make every aspect of hacking much harder: because hackers often reuse computers, accounts, and infrastructure, targeting these would sabotage their capabilities or render them otherwise useless.”
This is important, because by negating you are throwing away our most valuable assets to combat these organizations and you are leaving our government constantly scrambling, always one step behind the organizations which we used to have a lead on. International criminal syndicates would be thrilled at the decision. But further, it would open our nation up to attack from the cyberterrorists of the future, with potentially deadly impacts.
Jeremy Straub writes in 2019 for Live Science, “As someone who studies cybersecurity and information warfare, I'm concerned that a cyberattack with widespread impact, an intrusion in one area that spreads to others or a combination of lots of smaller attacks, could cause significant damage, including mass injury and death rivaling the death toll of a nuclear weapon.
Unlike a nuclear weapon, which would vaporize people within 100 feet and kill almost everyone within a half-mile, the death toll from most cyberattacks would be slower. People might die from a lack of food, power or gas for heat or from car crashes resulting from a corrupted traffic light system. This could happen over a wide area, resulting in mass injury and even deaths.”
Contention 2: Enforcing Cyber Norms
Shifting our view to the world stage, offensive cyber operations can be a useful tool in enforcing international cyber norms in the long run. Currently, there is an enforcement void that needs to be filled… Countries are pushing back on existing cyber norms unprovoked without consequence, particularly China & Russia, and the US is paying for it.
The Atlantic furthers in 2019, “(it’s) clear that cyber norms have been very much contested by China, Russia, and their autocratic buddies...Not only that, but Team Autocrat seems to be winning through a devious strategy of populating international organizations like the UN with their own countrymen to push their own views of global norms. In case you missed it, China is now the second-largest contributor to the United Nations budget. The result is that “[China] is successfully lobbying for its nationals to obtain senior posts in the UN Secretariat and associated organizations, and it is using its influence to press the UN and member states to acquiesce in China’s preferences on issues”
This manifests in a very destructive way. Foreign Affairs writes in 2018, “During the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign, Russian hackers broke into the Democratic National Committee’s e-mail servers and made more general efforts to influence the election’s outcome...In February, U.S. intelligence and law enforcement officials warned that the Russian government would again try to use cyber-operations to interfere with midterm elections in November. That same month, the White House publicly blamed Russia for “the most destructive and costly cyberattack in history,” the 2017 NotPetya malware campaign, which crippled the government of Ukraine before spreading to multinational corporations...causing billions in damage....They also note that “Chinese hacking groups have stolen U.S. intellectual property from industrial manufacturers and military contractors.”
Ultimately, with the UN out of the picture, and China and Russia freely violating cyber norms, NATO and the US needs to take a firm stance in enforcing cyber norms by making China and Russia bleed. If we don’t, there is ultimately nothing stopping China & Russia from freely wreaking havoc.
Thankfully, the US is trying to step up their game in response. In October 2018, the US responded to these threats with a new strategy. According to Fifth Domain, it “is best described as DoD working on foreign networks to prevent attacks before they happen. The way Cyber Command meets those goals is through persistent engagement, which means challenging adversary activities wherever they operate.”
But this doesn’t mean the US will be hacking willy-nilly. In fact, the new “defend-forward” strategy is largely self-defensive… it’s about gathering intel to take out threats before they take you out first. Fifth Domain furthers: “The idea is that you gain access, then camp and wait for when intelligence sources tell you that something nefarious might come out of a given network.” If that intelligence is credible enough, you strike, sending a clear message and disabling your opponent. RECALL from my constructive that, among other things, the US can have these bad actors simply kicked off the internet, or have their accounts & computers forcibly wiped. By doing this, we raise the cost of attacking to an extent to where opposing factions become less trigger-happy.
What’s more is that many of these operations can be reversed, creating clear leveraging power over enemy parties. Fifth Domain furthers: “The concept of reversible cyberattacks is similar to ransomware, when a criminal can hold data hostage for money. An example of a reversible offensive cyberattack would be encrypting an enemy’s data to force a change in behavior and then decrypting that information once there has been an agreement… another example is copying data, and then deleting it from an owner’s system to hold the information ransom. Reversible cyberattacks are similar to economic sanctions, but more potent. “Sanctions are inherently public, which leads to additional reputational costs for the aggressor if it backs down post-action. The value of (cyber operations) is that these activities could potentially take place in a covert manner, making it easier for a leader to save face,”
It’s not at all a reach to suppose that this method of coercion could shape the behavior of aggressive parties. It’s no wonder that the Washington Post argues the following: “statistical analyses of international cyber-incidents reach mostly similar conclusions, as does research on battlefield operations in Ukraine. The emerging consensus among researchers is that cyberattacks aren’t unusually escalatory. If anything, the opposite is true.”
This will be especially effective as even when US deterrence won’t work, deterrence by the entire 29 members of NATO will. According to Cyberscoop in 2018, the new cyber strategy “says the U.S. will initiate a “Cyber Deterrence Initiative” to build a group of “like-minded states” to “ensure adversaries understand the consequences of their malicious cyber behavior.” This could happen through NATO. James Lewis notes that NATO could trigger an Article 5 response and hit back collectively, or the US could respond on its own, doing damage and deterring China & Russia from openly defying international norms in the future.
Contention 3: Military Necessity
Offensive cyber operations are absolutely necessary for the US to be militarily competitive with other nations. The negative would make us defenseless.
As James Lewis, Senior Vice President and Director for the Strategic Technologies Program writes: “An early scene in the 1962 film Lawrence of Arabia shows German planes swooping back and forth to bomb the rebel camp and Prince Feisal, who’s heroically mounted on a white charger, chasing the planes with his sword in hand. Horses against aeroplanes aptly describes the circumstance for any nation that wants to defend itself if it lacks military cyber capabilities. You can’t reasonably expect to have a modern, effective military if you can’t carry out cyber operations. This isn’t a like-for-like match of cyber versus cyber—an astute opponent will use cyber techniques to paralyse command and control, interfere with the operation of weapons, and generally attempt to fatally expand the confusion that accompanies any armed conflict… Eventually, all modern militaries will have offensive cyber capabilities, just as they have acquired jets, helicopters, missiles and, increasingly, UAVs. Nobody likes warfare, but declining to modernise, sticking to the cyber equivalent of horses and swords against airplanes, is a gift to opponents who will be quick to seize upon a careless attitude towards national defence.”
Indeed, Strategic Studies Quarterly affirms their utility:(CFCC = counterforce cyber capabilities) “Several scholars note that “unlike weapons of mass destruction, cyber weapons are an integral part of the commander’s arsenal in conducting force-on-force and asymmetric warfare and will be used in concert with kinetic weapons to soften up the adversary’s defenses.” Indeed, there is little question that CFCCs can be deployed in conjunction with other military capabilities—in fact, that is what makes them attractive to use. Like small amounts of investments can create much larger changes in total output of an economy through a multiplier effect, so can the use of a relatively simple CFCC greatly alter the outcome of a conflict.”
In a CON world, we would be at a significant tactical disadvantage. This is bad for several reasons.
For one, it would increase the amount of casualties military operations inflict, as
a.) Our soldiers would be more vulnerable to attack & b.) We would have to rely on more gruesome, kinetic means.
Secondly, it would allow terrorist organizations to evade military action and attack their targets more efficiently, yielding economic destruction and death in their wake.
Third, with having such a military decline, the US won't be taken seriously as a world power when it comes to diplomacy. This is bad, as you can RECALL that "Team Autocrat" is trying to expand their influence. With Chinese hegemony comes even more violation of international norms on cyberspace accompanied with increased violations of human rights.
Lastly, it also comes at a cost of increased nuclear proliferation. Believe it or not, cyber operations are one of our best tools to prevent autocratic countries from acquiring nuclear arms. According to the Journal of Conflict & Security Law: “States could conduct cyber attacks to directly damage or disrupt the facilities where nuclear weapons are being manufactured or, if the State in question has already acquired nuclear weapons, to attack other infrastructures in order to persuade it to disarm.”
For example, Stuxnet set back Iran 2 years in their nuclear program according to The Atlantic. “It will take two years for Iran to get back on track,” Langer said in a telephone interview from his office in Hamburg, Germany. “This was nearly as effective as a military strike, but even better since there are no fatalities and no full-blown war. From a military perspective, this was a huge success.”

submitted by 9spaceking to changemyview [link] [comments]

r/CoronavirusDownunder random daily discussion thread - 05 January, 2021

VIC second presser @ 1:30pm according to the Guardian

Victoria will hold another press conference on its coronavirus
You should be able to find a stream using one of these sources: | The Age | ABC Melbourne | 9news live | ABC News - YouTube

NSW press conference: most likely at 11am AEDT

You should be able to find a stream using one of these sources: | The Age | NSW Health Facebook | 9news live | ABC News - YouTube

🌎 Other news

Feel free to talk about the COVID-19 situation in any country within this post and/or anything else you like as long as it is within the rules.

BNO: NEW: UK raising COVID alert level to 5, the highest level, meaning healthcare services are at risk of being overwhelmed - BBC
BNO: NEW: UK raising COVID alert level to 5, the highest level, meaning healthcare services are at risk of being overwhelmed - BBC

TYPE	SUBMISSION	DOMAIN
Asia	🇰🇵 - North Korea requests Covid vaccine after months of claiming to have never had a case	independent.co.uk
	🇲🇾 - Coronavirus: Malaysia in talks with Singapore on compassionate travel	straitstimes.com
	🇨🇳 - China's Hebei reports 4 new locally-transmitted COVID-19 cases	ecns.com
	🇰🇷 - South Korea's Population Falls for First Time, Likely Worsened by Covid-19	wsj.com
	🇸🇬 - Singapore Covid contact-tracing data made accessible to police force	independent.co.uk
	🇵🇭 - Philippine president lauds guards' courage in using unauthorised COVID-19 vaccine: Spokesman	channelnewsasia.com
	🇹🇼 - Staff member at Taiwan embassy in Eswatini contracts COVID-19	focustaiwan.tw
	🇮🇳 - Crowds flock to Taj Mahal as restrictions lifted despite rising Covid cases	independent.co.uk
	🇨🇳 - Outpacing Trump’s Operation Warp Speed, China to give coronavirus vaccine to 50 million in a month	washingtonpost.com
	🇭🇰 - Hong Kong extends face-to-face school closures until mid-February due to COVID-19 spread	channelnewsasia.com
	🇯🇵 - Suga warns Tokyo faces state of emergency as Covid cases soar	ft.com
	🇮🇩 - Why Indonesia is vaccinating its working population first, not elderly	channelnewsasia.com
	🇱🇧 - Lebanon orders three-week lockdown to fight COVID-19 spread	channelnewsasia.com
Europe	🇬🇧 - UK to move to highest coronavirus alert level as full lockdowns loom	theguardian.com
	🇬🇧 - The UK's new coronavirus variant is overwhelming hospitals as data suggests it may kill many more than the previous version	news.yahoo.com
	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 - What Scotland’s new Covid-19 lockdown restrictions mean / Scotland will go back into national coronavirus lockdown, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announces	theguardian.com / news.yahoo.com
	🇬🇧 - Covid deaths in UK could exceed 100k before end of month, data shows	theguardian.com
	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 - Scottish MP Margaret Ferrier arrested over alleged Covid rule breach	theguardian.com
	🇬🇧 - UK breaks its own daily COVID record as 58,784 new cases announced by Public Health England	euronews.com
	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 - England's changing coronavirus lockdown strategy: a timeline	theguardian.com
	🇪🇸 - Spanish doctors disappointed by slow rollout of COVID-19 vaccinations	reuters.com
	🇬🇷 - Greece detects four cases of fast-spreading Covid variant among arrivals from UK over Christmas	independent.co.uk
	🇳🇱 - Netherlands brings forward start of COVID-19 vaccination campaign	channelnewsasia.com
	🇫🇷 - French government heavily criticised over slow COVID-19 vaccination rollout	euronews.com
	🇮🇪 - Ireland to cancel most non-urgent procedures as COVID cases soar	torontosun.com
	🇨🇿 - Czechs wave empty beer mugs in COVID-19 lockdown protest	euronews.com
	🇩🇰 - Denmark sees surging COVID-19 infection rate in nursing homes	ecns.cn
Americas	🇺🇸 - White House Operation Warp Speed chief says that coronavirus variant 'should be under control' with vaccinations	news.yahoo.com
	🇺🇸 - U.S. air travel hits pandemic high over New Year's holiday amid surging Covid outbreak	cnbc.com
	🇧🇷 - Brazil health regulator eyes import of AstraZeneca vaccine from India	reuters.com
	🇺🇸 - Texas reports new record high for COVID-19 hospitalizations	washingtontimes.com
	🇨🇦 - Over 600K Canadians have now been infected with COVID-19	globalnews.ca
	🇨🇦 - ‘Confusion’: Airlines slam new coronavirus test rules for travellers returning to Canada	globalnews.ca
	🇺🇸 - San Jose hospital worker dies from COVID-19 outbreak possibly tied to inflatable costume	latimes.com
	🇺🇸 - 10,000 white flags honor the lives of Georgians lost to COVID-19	cbs46.com
	🇺🇸 - New York has ordered healthcare providers to use all COVID-19 vaccines within 7 days of receipt or face fines up to $100,000	BNO Newsroom
	🇺🇸 - L.A. hospitals race to discharge patients to make room for COVID victims but can't keep up	latimes.com
	🇲🇽 - Mexico Covid spokesperson faces backlash for going on beach vacation	independent.co.uk
Rest of the world	🇿🇦 - uMgungundlovu now KwaZulu-Natal’s Covid-19 death capital	news24.com
	🇿🇦 - Pfizer Has Offered South Africa Discounted Covid-19 Vaccines	bloomberg.com
	🇿🇦 - Covid variant in South Africa is 'more of a problem' than UK's, official says	cnbc.com
	🇰🇪 - Kenya reopens schools after nine months	bbc.co.uk

Some numbers around the world 🌏️

🇸🇨 - SEYCHELLES

+25 (total cases: 322).
+1 (total deaths: 1).

🇭🇰 - HONG KONG:

+53 (total cases: 9,018).
+1 (total deaths: 151).

🇹🇭 - THAILAND:

+745 (total cases: 8,439).
+1 (total deaths: 65).

🇰🇷 - SOUTH KOREA:

+1,020 (total cases: 64,264).
+19 (total deaths: 981).

🇲🇾 - MALAYSIA:

+1,741 (total cases: 120,818).
+7 (total deaths: 501).

🇨🇱 - CHILE:

+2,450 (total cases: 620,641).
+0 (total deaths: 16,767).

🇯🇵 - JAPAN:

+2,893 (total cases: 243,847).
+51 (total deaths: 3,599).

🇮🇪 - IRELAND:

+6,110 (total cases: 107,997) - Biggest one day increase on record.
+6 (total deaths: 2,265).
Positivity rate: 25.3% (+3.4).
+91 (total hospitalisations: 776).
+8 (total ICU admissions: 70).

🇮🇩 - INDONESIA:

+6,753 (total cases: 772,103).
+177 (total deaths: 22,911).

🇨🇭 - SWITZERLAND:

+9,665 (total cases: 461,961).
+84 (total deaths: 7,831).

🇮🇹 - ITALY:

+10,800 (total cases: 2,166,244).
+348 (total deaths: 75,680).

🇬🇧 - UK:

+58,784 (total cases: 2,713,563) - Biggest one day increase on record.
+407 (total deaths: 75,431).
+1,400 (total hospitalisations: 28,387).
+164 (total ICU admissions: 2,400).

🇺🇸 - USA (as of 03/01):

+204,805 (total cases: 21,113,528).
+1,431 (total deaths: 360,078 ).
Positivity rate: 14.4% (+1).
+1,905 (total hospitalisations: 125,544).
+79 (total ICU admissions: 23,231).
Vaccinated: 4.3M (+44,171)

Our daily update is published. States reported 1.4 million tests, 205k cases, 125,544 people hospitalized, and 1,431 COVID-19 deaths. Holiday data reporting effects are almost certainly still in play.

https://preview.redd.it/x7yga97f7d961.png?width=2464&format=png&auto=webp&s=7eeb859e08d0469c368e959af75e3946372747d5

submitted by Stoaticor to CoronavirusDownunder [link] [comments]

ADRs and China

I've seen a few posts about ADRs recently talking about how all chinese stocks are based in the Cayman Islands and no one's really buying stock in these chinese companies and that China has no need to uphold these agreements - As a disclaimer, before I go on, I was to say I do own stock in NIO and BABA as well as AMZN, AAPL and a few other small AI companies.
While many of you may be technically correct about ADRs, it fundamentally ignores the foreign policy climate of almost all countries and more specifically ignores the way China's foreign policy is being conducted right now - I'm not an expert and you should of course do your own DD but what I've noticed from all these posts is that they are all ignoring the idea of Soft Power.
Lets define what soft and hard power are: I've taken these definitions from wikipedia, because they're concise and as always wikipedia is well referenced (damn teachers!)
Soft power: In politics (and particularly in international politics), soft power is the ability to attract and co-opt, rather than coerce (contrast hard power). In other words, soft power involves shaping the preferences of others through appeal and attraction - Foreign Aid is an excellent example of the use of Soft Power
Hard Power: Hard power is the use of military and economic means to influence the behavior or interests of other political bodies. This form of political power is often aggressive (coercion), and is most immediately effective when imposed by one political body upon another of lesser military and/or economic power
Why is this important?:
While China is on its way to becoming a global superpower its not there yet, there are more economically reliable countries (US) and countries with more functional military might (Russia and US) - I say functional here because military might isn't just man power and number of soldiers.
China uses hard power when it comes to domestic policy, through the use of censorship, coercion of officials, imprisonment of dissidents and so on and so forth. (https://www.amnesty.org/en/countries/asia-and-the-pacific/china/report-china/)
However, they've also learnt from the collapse of the USSR which collapsed in part due their international and economic isolation among other factors (https://www.britannica.com/story/why-did-the-soviet-union-collapse) - Now China doesn't want that to happen and to ensure it doesn't, it's followed an interesting hybridisation of communism and capitalism where private companies are closely linked to the government but are allowed to compete and have private ownership. However this has meant that chinese companies and by extension China as a country has to be attractive to outside investors and that's where soft power comes in.
Throughout the pandemic and even before China has been trying to expand its soft power further in the hope of eventually leveraging itself into the world's leading super power. Case and point is the Free trade agreement it signed with 14 other asia-pacific countries creating an even larger free market than the eu (16% vs 22%) (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/nov/15/china-and-14-asia-pacific-countries-agree-historic-free-trade-deal). While this gives it more economic power, it also gives china great headlines!
This isn't the only way China is trying to garner a better image of itself and therefore more soft power - For a long time, China has been and is commonly viewed as one of the largest polluters in the world (https://ge.usembassy.gov/chinas-air-pollution-harms-its-citizens-and-the-world/#:~:text=The%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China,health%20and%20the%20world's%20economy.), pollution that has been killing around a million of its citizens a year - so to not only improve their citizens lives (though how much of the main motivation that is I'm very skeptical) but to also capture the ongoing trend of renewable energy becoming the dominant energy market in the next decade or two, China has been pouring money into clean energy initiatives, so they not only capture a significant slice of an upcoming dominant market but they are also able to position themselves as the clean energy capital of the world.
Let's be clear though, the current pandemic has affected their soft power and reduced it massively which leads onto the crux of my argument.
How Soft power relates to ADRs and Stocks?
For China to successfully follow through with their plans (leveraging soft power into economic might - the tried and tested american way to an extent - except america had WW2 and the Marshall plan to reach this point sidenote: I know that's massively reductive and there's a lot of other factors involved in america becoming a superpower including a shit load of hard power i.e. nuclear bombs and military might) they require investment not just from domestic sources but foreign sources otherwise they gain no soft power. So how does this relate the ADRs:
If China and Chinese companies were to renege on their agreements with these shell companies, it would lead to major banks, hedge funds and entire countries to disinvest from the chinese economy - a counterpoint I can imagine in the comments may be that it's technically not a reneging because the these chinese companies and chinese law doesn't state that you can own shares but the optics of it certainly are. Every major newspaper would be covering it, people who have invested would be using their soft power (their vote) to push for harder line on china and so would banks who would be disinvesting by their droves from chinese ADRs. I know I wouldn't be buying anything from China again because the risk is too high and that would be the most dangerous thing for the chinese government. They are trying and have until now succeeded in creating an image of a stable thriving economy
Disinvestment may sound sensationalist and to an extent I would agree it may be but the most recent example is BABA stock - The disappearance of Jack Ma not only lead to a massive drop in BABA stock but countless headlines about how dangerous it is to invest in Chinese companies - and while I'm sure Jack Ma when he returns will have to change to adapt to his potentially curbed reality, the chinese government will have also realised that they'll need to adapt to ensure that they don't lose the soft power they've spent over 40 years cultivating ( look up Deng Xiaoping's China reform and opening-up policy).
And to address comments that I'm sure will say China can be self sufficient without any foreign investments - I'm sure they can but that path has until now lead to ruin for other countries, the primary example being the USSR and a less prominent example being North Korea. The chinese government is ruthless, efficient and they're certainly not stupid.
Of course if anyone thinks I'm wrong, please let me know - I also understand that the BABA example is more nuanced than how far I've gone into it because of Jack Ma's Ant group going onto central bank turf but the logic behind the point stands.
TLDR: China would lose their soft power, banks and people would disinvest in China if they didn't honor their ADR agreements and would set China onto the path of future economic ruin and upheaval - I could be wrong though
Edit: Hong Kong is an interesting counterpoint to my argument, but I would say that to a certain extent, Banks knew HK would be bought under the CCP and still think they can make money there - also Hong Kong massively damaged Chinese Soft power and if there had been a better president I think the effect would have been huge but there wasn't and the markets are over it - if ADRs aren't honoured, then Banks and hedge funds would lose money and I think that that's their bottom line and a red line for them - I could be wrong though

submitted by Kingmaker251 to stocks [link] [comments]

north korea president health now video

Where Is Kim Jong-un? How Experts Track North Korea’s ... NORTH KOREA NOW - YouTube Reports: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's health in ... Conflicting Reports on North Korean Leader Kim's Health ... North Korean Leader Kim Jong Executes Ex-Girlfriend - YouTube What happened to North Korea's Kim Jong-un? - YouTube North Korean leader Kim Jong-un reportedly unwell after ...

At least for now, there have been no unusual movements reported on the peninsula — a good sign, perhaps, for both domestic stability in North Korea and international stability. But that issue North Korea proposes a step-by-step solution, calling for the United States to conclude a “non-aggression treaty,” normalize bilateral diplomatic relations, refrain from hindering North Korea’s “economic cooperation” with other countries, complete the reactors promised under the Agreed Framework, resume suspended fuel oil shipments, and increase food aid. Pyongyang states that, in Assassins director explains how crime scene footage finally emerged and led to his film. By Rebecca Seales and Hideharu Tamura BBC News, in Tokyo How North Korea kidnapped unsuspecting Japanese Kim Jong Il's absence from a parade celebrating North Korea's 60th anniversary in 2008 was followed by rumblings that he was in poor health. It was later revealed he had a stroke, after which his As reports swirl around Kim Jong Un being in dire health, South Korea's presidential Blue House said Tuesday that there have been no unusual indications about the North Korean leader's condition. A woman who fled years of starvation, torture and imminent death in North Korea is now running to be a councillor in the U.K. Jihyun Park, 52, was chosen as the Conservative Party candidate for Holyrood ward in Bury, Greater Manchester, according to BBC News. Park first escaped North Korea in 1998 after a famine killed her father and uncle. South Korea continued to pour water on mounting speculation about the health of North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un, telling CNN he is "alive and well." The truth is, few people outside of Kim's inner circle know for sure - his daily routine and health are some of North Korea's most closely guarded secrets. In that environment, rumors and Seoul, South Korea – North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was last pictured centre stage at a key political meeting on April 11, but has been out of the country’s state media ever since.Now, after The military plans announced during one of the biggest political events in North Korea in the last five years may sound threatening - and it is indeed a threat. But it's also a challenge. The timing of this message is key as it comes as US President-elect Joe Biden prepares to take office. Mr Kim, who has also now been promoted to Secretary General (the highest rank of the ruling Worker's

north korea president health now top

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Where Is Kim Jong-un? How Experts Track North Korea’s ...

There are conflicting reports that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is unwell after recently undergoing heart surgery. Subscribe: https://bit.ly/2noaGhv Get m... Apr.21 -- The U.S. is seeking details about Kim Jong Un’s health after receiving information that the North Korean leader was in critical condition after und... There are new questions surrounding the health of North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un's health after his reported absence from "Army Day" celebrations on Saturd... Welcome to NORTH KOREA NOW, an official North Korea-focused English YouTube channel of Korea's leading news service provider Yonhap News Agency.Interested in... Speculations have spread on North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s health and whereabouts, since April 15, when he failed to attend celebrations on the country's ... None has paid a higher price than the leading North Korean singer Hyon Song Wol..According to a report yesterday the star, a former girlfriend of the north k... Rumors are swirling about Kim Jong-un’s location and health. These North Korea experts showed us how they collect information about his secretive regime.Read... North Korea President Kim Jong Un Latest News Kim Jong Un Health News Kim Alive Spot NewsSpot News Channel reaches audience with the most interesting Politic...

north korea president health now