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The Daily Run-Down, Jan 8th Edition

Hey again, I have decided to name this piece the Daily Run-Down, extremely busy slate last night, so lets get into it:
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Quick Hitters
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Rookie Report
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Stud of the Night: Caris Durant (43 points, 5 boards, 6 assists, 15/23 shooting, 35 minutes)
Dud of the Night: Russell Westbrook (12 points, 4 boards, 8 assists,4/16 shooting, 33 minutes, 7 TOs)
Rook of the Night: Lamelo Ball (12 points, 10 boards, 9 assists, 4/11 shooting, 25 minutes)
Quote of the Night: "We can't guard a parked car" - Bradley Beal on the Wizards defense
Bonus Quote: "Long arms. He has Kawhi-type hands that I noticed out on the floor so I knew I couldn't play with the ball much. You could tell he's laser sharp on just trying to get better...Chicago has a good one" - Lebron James on rookie Patrick Williams
Link to Twitter: https://twitter.com/FantsyPowrHouse
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Santa Cruz Warriors: An overview of the 2021 Orlando Bubble Squad

Santa Cruz is set to tip-off their 2021 season today against the Ignite Team. Thirteen players will be suiting up for the Sea Dubs including two-way player Nico Mannion and assignees, Jordan Poole and Alen Smailagić. While those three might be well known by Warriors fans who've watched them play with Golden State, hopefully this post can shed some light on the other 10 players who make up the main squad. The G-League doesn't generally get a lot of attention or recognition from NBA fans, but if guys like Damion Lee, Juan Toscano-Anderson, and Mychal Mulder have shown anything, it's that there is talent lurking down there and it's a great place for young players to develop.
Notes on the G-League Season:

Jeremy Lin

Point Guard, 32 years old, 6′3, 200lbs
Lin is of course a very familiar face for Warriors fans. The Bay Area native, as an undrafted rookie, appeared in 29 games for Golden State during the 2010–11 season and would go on to become a tenured veteran in the NBA. However, a ruptured patellar tendon suffered at the beginning of the 2017–18 season would sideline Lin for that remainder of that campaign and the effects would carry over into the following season in which Lin struggled on the court with the Atlanta Hawks and Toronto Raptors, temporarily putting a hold on his NBA career.
Following a solid showing in the CBA last year putting up 22.4ppg, 5.6rpg, 5.6apg on .493/.335/.822, a now-healthy Lin is looking to make his way back to the NBA and hopes this path with Santa Cruz will be his opportunity to do so.
Playstyle
Lin is well known as a scoring guard who operates out of the PNR with a quick first step and playmaking ability. He will be looking to show that he still possesses those skills at the NBA-level following concerns he had lost his quickness due to injury.
He is a career 34.2% three-point shooter and has never shot over 37.2% in a season, including last year in the CBA where he 33.5% from the outside on 173 attempts, so he should not be expected to start draining them, but he won't be asked to do so either with elite marksmen such as Hannahs, Taylor, and Wesson on the roster.
Lin has left much to be desired on the defensive end throughout his NBA career, but was recently a finalist for Defensive Player of the Year in the CBA so it will be interesting to see how much he has improved and what he can offer on that end.
Expectations
Lin is expected to start for Santa Cruz at point guard and is most likely hoping to only have to play a few games before getting signed by an NBA team looking for a veteran point guard, a team like the Magic, who have been riddled with injuries at that position, for example. For those who watched Santa Cruz last season, Lin will take on the role that was Jeremy Pargo's as the veteran who runs the offense and is the default scoring option.

Dusty Hannahs

Shooting Guard, 27 years old, 6′3, 210lbs
Hannahs is an undrafted guard out of Arkansas. He's spent the last three seasons in the G-League with the Memphis Hustle averaging 14.5ppg, 2.0rpg, 1.7apg on .460/.435/.917 and was named to the All-G League Third Team last season. He's also been in-and-out of the Memphis Grizzlies on a couple of 10-Days throughout the past 2 years. Santa Cruz traded for his rights ahead of the 2021 G-League draft.
Playstyle
Hannahs is a lights out shooter. Through three seasons in the G-League he shot 43.5% from deep on 648 attempts. He's capable of both spotting up for catch-and-shoot threes and pulling up from off-the-dribble. He has a decent handle which allows him to create separation, and his shooting threat and speed gives him an edge when driving to the basket. He has steadily improved as a finisher over the years, but will still throw up some wild shots driving into traffic. He also isn't much of a playmaker. When he drives he doesn't look to pass and has too much tunnel vision.
Hannahs is a bit undersized for a wing at 6'3 which makes him limited defensively where he leaves much to be desired. He's not very good as an on-ball or off-ball defender. He will occasionally ball watch and lose track of his assignment and often reacts a bit too slowly to how the play develops. He also isn't much of a rebounder and doesn't do a great job of positioning or boxing out. He also isn't very good at fighting over screens or offering much as a help defender, which is more of an issue of lack of effort and focus. He will have to improve on this side of the ball if he hopes to make it at an NBA level.
Expectations
Hannahs would've started in the backcourt with Lin, but with Mannion and Poole assigned, he will be relegated to a bench role, playing at times as a 2 or 3. As one of the more tenured players on the roster, his G-League experience will be valuable for the team and he should see a lot of minutes provided he can offer more off-the-ball and defensively than he has shown so far. Hannahs has already established himself as an elite G-Leaguer and has flirted with the NBA, so if he can put together another solid season and make improvements in the areas he needs to, there's a good chance he can find himself on a two-way deal in the near future.

Ryan Taylor

Small Foward, 26 years old, 6'6, 190lbs
Taylor is a 4-year college player who went undrafted in 2019. He was selected with the 24th pick in the 2019 G-League draft by the Lakeland Magic, but was cut in training camp. He joined Santa Cruz as a mid-season acquisition from the available player pool and would go on to appear in 22 games where he averaged 9.2ppg, 2.0rpg, 0.6apg on .456/.430/1.000 coming off the bench. He was put on the radar of Warriors fans when he was invited to participate in the Dubble and shot the lights out during their televised scrimmage, putting up 18 points with 6 threes.
Playstyle
Taylor is a knockdown shooter who usually hangs around the corner and moves around off-the-ball a decent amount. He doesn't handle the ball or create a lot for himself, but has a pull-up midrange jumper off a down screen he likes to go to and a floater alternative as well. Outside of that, he hasn't driven a lot or showed off his finishing, but he is deceptively athletic and can throw it down. He's not really a playmaker, but he's a smart player who will make the right passes and not play out of his comfort zone.
He's not any sort of lockdown defender, but he does enough defensively where he can bother players on-ball and stick with them, fighting through screens and using his athleticism and lateral speed. He does a good job of forcing players into tough shots and not giving them anything easy. He's also a smart team defender, who knows when to rotate and help. Overall he projects as a 3&D wing who doesn't do more than he's capable of and plays within the flow of the game. He would fit in well at Golden State.
Expectations
Taylor most likely would've started, but with the assignment of Jordan Poole and based on scrimmage tape, it seems he will be coming off the bench instead, playing a big role as the backup small forward. At 26 years of age, having just started his pro career, Taylor is looking for a late-bloomer career arc similar to that of Damion Lee. Having impressed last season in limited time, this season will be a better opportunity for Taylor to move into a bigger role and establish himself as a starting quality G-League player with the hopes of receiving a training camp invite from Golden State next season and being a candidate for a two-way spot. As a 3&D archetype, he's arguably the most interesting prospect on this roster for Warriors fans to watch out for as a potential future Golden State player.

Axel Toupane

Power Foward, 28 years old, 6'7, 196lbs
Toupane is a French wing who went undrafted in 2014 and has become a well-traveled journeyman. He played 2 seasons in the G-League with Raptors 905 where he averaged 15.4ppg, 4.8rpg, 3.6apg, 1.1spg on .446/.329/.798. He's also played 29 games in the NBA on a couple of 10 Day and ROS deals with the Nuggets, Bucks, and Pelicans, and spent the last three seasons playing overseas in Lithuania, Greece, Spain, and France. Most recently he appeared with the Warriors in pre-season, where he saw a handful of minutes.
Playstyle
On offense, Toupane likes to spot up in the corner or move from wing to wing in hopes of receiving the ball off a drive-and-kick for an open 3. He didn't shoot the 3-ball well during his time in the G-League, but overseas his percentages looked better from year-to-year and he is capable of knocking them down at a low volume. He doesn't have the ball in his hand often, but seems to have a pretty good handle and likes to take defenders off-the-dribble and either beat them to the rim or pull up for a jumper. He especially loves to slash in transition and due to his speed, length, and athleticism can blow by defenders with ease and finish in traffic with an array of acrobatic moves. He doesn't necessarily seem like a playmaker, but can make some good read for a wing and likes throwing lobs.
Defensively he's a pretty good on-ball defender who can bother opposing ballhandlers with his length and lateral quickness. His size makes him versatile and capable of matching up fairly well with 1-4s. Oubre is a good comparison in that regard. He also seems to have a decent read of passing lanes and can use his length to get a hand on the ball and burst out for a transition dunk.
Expectations
Toupane is expected to start at power forward. Although he's played as a 2/3 for most of his career, Santa Cruz likes to play small and Toupane is the 3rd tallest player on the roster after Mawugbe and Wesson. Golden State even played him at the 4 during pre-season which makes him the obvious choice to start there, coupled with his experience. As the second oldest player after Lin, Toupane will have a very important and big role in this squad both on and off the floor.

Kaleb Wesson

Center, 21 years old, 6'10, 253lbs
Wesson is an undrafted big out of Ohio State where he averaged 12.9ppg, 7rpg, 1.6apg on .495/.385/.729 over 3 seasons. He was well regarded by draft experts and many thought he could get picked in the second round or at least grab a two-way contract. However, he would join the Warriors for training camp where he didn't get much playing time and wasn't able to impress.
Playstyle
Wesson biggest attraction is his stretch 5 ability. He's a good outside shooter who shot 42.5% from deep in his final year on 106 attempts and did well in all the combine shooting drills. He finished first in one of the drills making 80% of his attempts. He gets most of his threes out of pick-and-pops around the top of the key and wings and that's most likely where he'll be money from moving forward. Wesson doesn't create a lot of offense for himself, but he does have a post hook and post fadeaway he likes to go to with moderate success. Otherwise, his finishing is a bit poor. For someone with his size and strength, he goes pretty weak to the rim and gets rejected far too often. He also doesn't have leaping ability to go up for lobs and rim-run, a bit Looney-like in that regard. He does however have great court vision and will make some eye-catching reads especially out of the post and elbow, and off the short roll. He seems like he has the potential to become a really good playmaker for a big.
Defensively he's limited due to his size and athleticism. He is slow and doesn't have good verticality. He struggles when switched out to guards due to his lack of lateral speed and gets beaten pretty easily. He's not much of a rim protector or shot blocker, but makes up for his deficiencies with relatively high defensive BBIQ and active hands. He has a good feel for when to reach in for a block or steal. He's also a good rebounder who boxes out and positions well, and uses his size and strength to neutralize opponents and pin them under the basket out of position.
The best comparison for him might be like Boris Diaw. Although I haven't watch Boris in a while, but I remember him as a stocky big man who was a good passer and could knock down a 3-ball. That's kind of the mold he's looking to fulfill in the NBA.
Expectations
Wesson will start at center while Smailagić is out and then become his primary backup. He'll be looking to at the least establish himself as a starting-level G-Leaguer and potentially play well enough to have a shot at earning a two-way for next season. Stretch bigs are a premium and if he can show that his shot translates to the next level, he should definitely get some NBA teams interested. Outside of Taylor, he's arguably the most interesting non-assignee for Warriors fans to watch. He's the youngest player on this roster, but also one of the ones with the most potential to become an NBA level player, and his passing, outside shooting, and defensive BBIQ would make him a great fit for Golden State and an answer to the Mo Speights/David West type big they're looking for.

Isaiah Reese

Point Guard, 24 years old, 6'5, 185lbs
Reese is a 3-year college player who after going undrafted in 2019 joined the Houston Rockets for Summer League. He was selected with the 6th pick in the 2019 G-League draft by the Austin Spurs and was traded to Santa Cruz on draft night for Kavion Pippen. Reese played 42 games coming off the bench and averaged 7.0ppg, 2.7rpg, 2.7apg on .408/.343/.667 his rookie season.
Playstyle
Reese doesn't necessarily seem to excel at any one specific skill but he seems to have an all-around skill set that if developed properly could turn him into a useful player. He's big for a point guard at 6'5 and can bother opposing point guards with his size defensively. He relatively does a good job on the defensive end, although he has a tendency to gamble a little too much and go for steals he shouldn't. He will occasionally lose track of his assignments and forget to box out, but if he can improve his awareness and focus, he projects to be a decent defender, at least at a G-League level.
Offensively, as I said above, he has an all-around game. He's shown some playmaking chops, capable of making good reads, but he also turns the ball over a fair amount and needs to learn to pick his spots better. He can shoot the 3-ball, but he's only really around a 35% outside shooter and shouldn't be taking them unless he's open in the corner. He can finish inside and has shown some finesse with his layups, but he doesn't go in strong and struggles to get to the line, only attempting 6 free throws in 810 minutes last season. I would compare him to his teammate from last season, Andrew Harrison, as a sort of big point guard who can kind of do a bit of everything, just none of it at an elite level yet.
Expectations
Last season was a primarily developmental one for Reese, as he got his feet wet at the pro-level. The Santa Cruz staff seemed to take a liking to him and would spend, what seemed like extra time, working specifically with him. He seems like someone they believe is a long term prospect. This season he should have a bigger role on the team as one of the guard options off the bench and should see plenty of game time. It will be a good opportunity to establish himself as a G-League level player and maybe play himself into a starting role next season with this team.

Zach Norvell Jr.

Shooting Guard, 23 years old, 6'5, 206lbs
Norvell played two seasons at Gonzaga before signing a two-way deal with the Los Angeles Lakers after going undrafted in 2019. He would see limited time with the Lakers and would be waived in December of that year to make room for Devontae Cacok. Apart from a single 10-Day contract, where he endeared himself to some Warriors fans, Norvell spent the bulk of the season playing in the G-League with South Bay and then Santa Cruz. He finished his rookie season averaging 14.7ppg, 4.6rpg, 2.9apg on .395/.387/.814.
Playstyle
Norvell is an athletic, scoring wing who can shoot fairly well. In the G-League he shot 39% from deep and shot 37% in college. Although his shot selection could be a little better, he's more than capable of knocking down catch-and-shoot threes in the corner, as well as, pulling up off-the-dribble. He has a good handle on him and although he is not necessarily a playmaker, he has shown that he can make some good reads and can excel as a secondary ballhandler and creator on the floor. Although his jumper is his calling card, he can also finish inside with his athleticism and finesse, but again his shot selection could be a little better there too as he'll take the ball into trouble a little too often.
Norvell seems like a decent defender. He's not any sort of liability, but he also isn't going to lock down anyone. He does a good job of fighting over screens and sticking with his man, but will still lose track of his assignments from time-to-time, and could do more when challenging shots to make them tougher. He has active hands at least and can come up with a couple of steals. For a guard, he's also pretty good about making sure to box out when the shot goes up.
Expectations
The Warriors acquired Norvell last season for Santa Cruz after they were impressed with him while he was on his 10-Day and felt he was an intriguing, young prospect worth bringing in and developing. Norvell will be one of the go-to players off the bench and have a fairly big role. Among the young players, he is one of the more intriguing ones to watch out for and could potentially find his way back on a two-way in the near future.

Elijah Pemberton

Shooting Guard, 23 years old, 6'5, 195lbs
Pemberton is an undrafted wing who finished his career at Hostra last season with 15.4ppg, 4.7rpg, 2.1apg on .448/.387/.788 over his 4 years. He was a last-minute sign-and-waive for the Warriors after they were unable to receive Lin's FIBA Letter of Clearance in time, and most likely wouldn't have made the roster otherwise.
Playstyle
Based on watching some of his film, Pemberton projects to be a long-term project. He's a big athletic guard/wing with a handle and decent shooting touch, especially on pull-up 3s (career 39%), but his game leaves a lot more to be desired outside of that. He does not seem comfortable at all finishing inside and consistently will drive into traffic and throw up a hopeless wild shot. Showing both poor decision making and poor technique. Although he only averaged 2.1 assists per game during his college career, based on a film he seems to have the potential to do better in that area. He doesn't necessarily seem to have natural court vision, but can make some good reads from time to time, and if he can hone in on that skill, he could become useful as a secondary creator on the floor.
Defensively due to his size and athleticism he has the potential to become a decent defender which could give him hope to make in the league one day as a 3&D wing, but for now, he has a lot to work on.
Expectations
Pemberton will most likely start the season as a deep reserve and not see much time on the court given that Santa Cruz is loaded with guards and small wings. At this point for him, the best thing is to just get consistent work in during practice and soak up as much information as he can. Depending on how well he progresses and if he shows potential he could return to next year's team and challenge for a more fixed role in the rotation.

Dwayne Sutton

Power Forward, 23 years old, 6'5, 220lbs
Sutton is an undrafted 4-year player out of Louisville who joined the Warriors for training camp this past December and is most memorable to fans for his monster dunk against the Kings during pre-season.
Playstyle
Sutton is a tweener. An undersized power forward who doesn't necessarily excel at any one thing or fit any set position, but is a gritty, versatile, and fierce competitor in the mold of a PJ Tucker or Draymond Green. Although small, he is athletic and long and is a good defender capable of guarding multiple positions and coming up with big plays.
On offense, he seems a little more limited. He shot the 3-ball at 34.3% during his college career at limited volume (338 attempts) and probably doesn't project to be a shooter or if so, his ceiling would seem like Tucker's as a corner specialist. He only averaged 1.3 assists per game over his career, but could potentially grow more as a playmaker. That number seemed a bit limited due to his low usage rate and based on some of the reads he made he seems like a capable and willing passer. He doesn't seem very comfortable creating off the dribble and doesn't seem to have any sort of reliable mid-range, both of which are areas he will need to work on to be able to make it at the next level.
Expectations
Of the three Exhibit 10's, Sutton seems the least ready to contribute right away so he probably won't have a large role but given how undersized the Warriors are, he should see a good amount of playing time primarily as Toupane's backup at the 4. It will be a good opportunity for him to show if he can stick in the G-League and add enough to his game to be a useable rotation piece moving forward.

Selom Mawugbe

Center, 22 years old, 6'10, 230lbs
Mawugbe is an undrafted standout from Divison II, Azusa Pacific, where he averaged 16.9ppg, 10.5rpg, 2apg, 3.1bpg, 1.1spg on 71.8% FG in his senior season. Mawugbe was the 21st pick in the G-League draft and the final addition to the Santa Cruz squad.
If you do a search for "Selom Mawugbe" on YouTube, outside of an interview and a workout clip, you will find one single highlight of a PNR lob finish. Nothing else. So in order to get some semblance of Selom's game, I watched a few of his Azusa Pacific games I could find.
Playstyle
Maguwbe seems to fit the archetype of a traditional center. On offense, he roams from block to block looking to post up or come out and set a screen for a teammate. When he does receive the ball, he's a willing passer and will make some good reads finding shooters out of the post. Due to his size and strength, he can outpower most players and finish inside, but he doesn't seem very comfortable creating his own offense and rarely does so. He also doesn't seem to have any sort of reliable jumper or at least is unwilling to let it fly (I think I saw him attempt maybe one jump shot through the film I watched).
He seems to be a more defensive-oriented player and does a good job of protecting the paint and keeping drivers at bay with his shot-blocking. He averaged around 3 blocks per game throughout his final 3 seasons at college and was routinely among the top shot blockers in D2. He communicates often with his teammates, which is important as Azusa seemed to run a primarily zone defense with Mawugbe anchored in the paint. He has enough athleticism and lateral speed to switch out to perimeter players and bother them, but he didn't do so often and is not a strong suit. He's also a good rebounder and looks to box out immediately as soon as the ball is up in the air.
Expectations
Mawugbe will most likely follow suit with Pemberton as another young player looking at a mostly developmental season. He will probably have more opportunities to play, however, as Santa Cruz is thin in the frontcourt and Smailagić isn't expected to play right away so he will need to backup Wesson. This season will be a good opportunity for Mawugbe to show if his game can translate to the next level, where he will no longer be able to dominate purely off of size and athleticism. His goal should be to establish himself as a G-League level player and challenge for a more fixed role in the rotation next season.

Projected Depth Chart

Pos. Starter Backup Third String
PG Lin Reese
SG Mannion Hannahs Pemberton
SF Poole Taylor Norvell
PF Toupane Sutton
C Smailagić Wesson Mawugbe
Based off of scrimmage clips it seems the Warriors are planning on rolling out a Lin-Mannion-Poole-Toupane-Wesson line-up to start the season, with presumably Wesson filling in for Smalagić temporarily. Lin and Mannion will most likely get the lion share of minutes at the 1 with Reese also getting some spot minutes and sometimes two of them will be on the court together. Poole, Hannahs, Taylor, and Norvell will be the wings playing 2/3 with Pemberton getting a sprinkle of minutes here and there. Toupane and Sutton will shore up the 4 spot and Smiley, Wesson, and Mawugbe will eat up the center minutes, although it will be interesting to see if they play any big line-ups with 2 of them on the floor (I also saw a line-up with Toupane at the 5 which was interesting).
This team seems to bode a lot of playmaking (Mannion, Poole, Lin, Wesson) and outside shooting (Hannahs, Taylor, Wesson, Norvell, Pemberton) so they should be fairly potent offensively. The defensive side of the ball will be more interesting to watch to see how well they can tighten up.
TLDR:
Lin - Veteran looking to return to the NBA, probably will not end up playing for Golden State
Taylor, Hannahs - Knockdown shooters, two-way contract candidates, ones-to-watch
Toupane - Veteran, athletic, defensive wing, could be a two-way contract candidate
Wesson - Knockdown shooter who can pass, young player with a lot of potential, maybe a future two-way candidate, one-to-watch
Norvell - Scoring, athletic wing, young player with a lot of potential, maybe a future two-way candidate, one-to-watch
Reese, Sutton, Pemberton, Mawugbe - G-League level projects
I was hoping to go a bit more in-depth with this and include some short video compilations, but was kind of pressed for time and wanted to post this before today's game. Hopefully, this will still give at least a general idea of what to expect from this roster. If there are any questions I can try to answer let me know.
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[OC] The Overly-Long and Probably-Wrong list of the Top Draft Prospects

As a basketball fan, it's always fun to speculate on the NBA Draft prospects. That said, I'd stress the speculate part of that statement. As an outsider with no real access to these players, it's hard to be arrogant and steadfast in our opinions. We're working with about 10% as much information as actual NBA teams. If you feel confident in your analysis based on some highlight tapes of James Wiseman dunking on South Carolina State or LaMelo Ball jacking up shots in the Australian League, god bless you. And if you want to read my amateur analysis, god bless you too. But before you do, remember to check your sodium levels and take these picks with a grain of salt.
BEST PROSPECTS in the 2019-20 NBA DRAFT
(1) SG Anthony Edwards, Georgia
Based on pure stats, Anthony Edwards would be one of the least impressive # 1 picks of all time. We're talking about a player who just averaged 19-5-3 on bad shooting splits (40-29-77) on a bad Georgia team. In fact, the Bulldogs didn't even crack .500 (finishing 16-16). All things considered, this isn't the resume of a top overall pick. It's like a kid with a 2.9 GPA applying to Harvard Law.
Still, the "eye test" helps Edwards' case in the same way it helped proud Harvard alum Elle Woods. Edwards has a powerful frame (strong and long with a 6'9" wingspan) and a scorer's mentality. He's going to be a handful for NBA wings to contend with, especially when he's going downhill. And while he hasn't shown to be a knockdown shooter, his form looks better than the results suggest. I'd project that he can become an average (35-36%) three-point shooter in time.
It may be unfair to label Edwards with the "best case scenario" comparison -- Dwyane Wade, for example -- but it may be just as unfair to liken him to "worst case scenario" comps like Dion Waiters as well. One of the reasons that Waiters is such an inefficient scorer in the NBA is that he's allergic to the free-throw line; he averages 3.1 FTA per 36 minutes. Edwards didn't live at the FT line, but he did get there 5.3 times per game. With more encouragement from an analytical front office or coaching staff, Edwards has the potential to get to the line 7-8 times a game and raise his ceiling in terms of efficiency.
The key for Edwards' career is going to be his work ethic and basketball character. As a prospect, he reminds me of Donovan Mitchell; in fact, he's ahead of where Mitchell was at the same age. That said, Mitchell is a natural leader who made a concerted effort to improve his body and his overall game. If Edwards can do the same, he has true All-Star potential. If he walks into the building thinking he's already a superstar, then he may never become one.
best fits
Anthony Edwards has some bust potential, but he also has true star potential. Given that, it'd be great to see him go to a team that's willing to feature him. Chances are he won't last this long, but he'd be a great fit for Charlotte (#3). The Hornets desperately need a signature star, and Edwards has the chance to be a 20 PPG scorer within a year or two.
worst fits
If Edwards falls in the draft, he may end up clashing with the talent on the teams in the 4-5 range. Chicago (#4) already has a scoring guard in Zach LaVine. Meanwhile, Cleveland (#5) has already doubled up on scoring guards with Collin Sexton and Darius Garland. Adding a third would be a potential headache, both offensively and defensively.
(2) C James Wiseman, Memphis
A true center? Gross! What is this, 1970?
Traditional big men tend to get treated that way these days. In some ways, they've become the "running backs" of the NBA. They once ruled the draft, but now they have to scrape and claw to climb into the top 5.
Still, let's no go overboard here. Even if centers aren't as valuable as they used to be, there's still some value here. Some of the best centers in the game (Nikola Jokic, Rudy Gobert, Joel Embiid, etc) have helped make their teams staples in the playoffs. Wiseman can potentially impact a team in the same way, especially on the defensive end. He can get beat on switches now and then, but he's about as agile as you can expect out of a kid who's 7'1" with a 7'6" wingspan. Offensively, he has an improving face-up game in addition to being a devastating lob threat.
Another reason that I'm comfortable with Wiseman in the top 3 is because he appears to be a smart kid with the will to improve his game. He intends to keep stretching out his range towards three point territory. Even if he can be a passable three-point shooter (in the 33% range), that should help make him a consistent 18-12 player and a fringe All-Star. And if not, then he'll still be a viable starting center.
best fits
We mentioned Charlotte (#3) as a great fit for Anthony Edwards, and I'd say the same for Wiseman here. His game complements the more dynamic P.J. Washington well; between the two of them, they'd have the 4-5 spot locked up for years. While Wiseman's best chance to be a star may come in Charlotte, we don't know if he truly has that type of aggressive upside. The more likely scenario is him being a pretty good starting center with an emphasis on defense. In that case, he makes some sense in Golden State (#2) and Atlanta (#6).
worst fits
Apparently James Wiseman doesn't want to go to Minnesota (#1), which makes sense given the presence of Karl-Anthony Towns. If he slips, Chicago (#4) may also be an odd fit. Wiseman is a better prospect than Wendell Carter Jr., but they're not terribly dissimilar. The new Bulls administration didn't select Carter, but it still feels too early to give up on a recent # 7 pick.
(3) PF/C Onyeka Okongwu, USC (HIGHER than most expert rankings)
Another big man? I may be showing my age here.
Still, I'm going to stick to my guns and suggest Onyeka Okongwu is a top 3 prospect in the class for some of the same reasons we ranked James Wiseman so highly. In fact, Okongwu is arguably an even better defensive prospect than Wiseman. While he doesn't have the same size (6'9" with a 7'1" wingspan), he's more switchable. He projects as a prowling, shot-blocking panther, not dissimilar to Bam Adebayo on Miami. Offensively, he flashes some solid skill here and there, although it's unlikely he'd get to Adebayo's level as a playmaker.
Another aspect that should help Okongwu is his selflessness. In high school, he played for Chino Hills alongside stars Lonzo and LaMelo Ball. While there, he blended in and did the dirty work for the LaVar Traveling Circus. It's likely that Okongwu will play a similar role in the NBA, complementing a star perimeter player.
While Okongwu may not have All-Star upside, I don't see much downside here. I'd be surprised if he's not a long-time starter at the center position (with the potential to play some PF if his shooting range improves.)
best fits
The most natural fits for Onyeka Okongwu mirror the best fits for James Wiseman. There’s a chance he may slip further than Wiseman too. Washington (#9) should be salivating if that’s the case.
worst fits
As a low-usage player, there aren't a lot of terrible fits for Okongwu on the board. However, Detroit (#7) already has Blake Griffin on a long-term deal and may re-sign Christian Wood as well. Given that, there wouldn't be much room for Okongwu barring a Griffin trade.
(4) PG LaMelo Ball, U.S./Australia. (LOWER than most expect rankings)
Every draft pick is an inherent gamble, but there's a difference between gambling in blackjack and gambling in Roulette. To me, LaMelo Ball is more of the latter.
No doubt, there's a chance that you may get lucky and "win big" with LaMelo Ball. He has great height for the position at 6'6"/6'7", and he makes some exceptional passes that illustrate a rare court vision. ESPN's Draft Express team ranks him as the # 1 prospect overall, and I take that seriously. Those guys were way ahead of the curve on calling Luka Doncic a transcendent talent at a time when most others were still skeptical.
At the same time, I'd say there is a sizable downside here as well. In fact, I'd estimate that there's a greater than 50/50 chance that Ball is a "bust" based on his current draft status.
LaMelo Ball put up good raw numbers this past season in the NBL -- 17.0 points, 7.6 rebounds, 6.8 assists -- but he was in a situation specifically designed for him to put up good numbers. The efficiency tells a different story, as his shooting splits (38-25-72) look worrisome. Yes, height helps on defense, but it doesn't matter much if you're not locked in on that end. And yes, highlight-reel passes and super-deep threes are fun to watch, but they're not a path to consistency on offense. As Ball makes the jump to the NBA, he may smack hard into a wall and crash into the water like was on Wipeout. There's a chance he'll be among the worst players (from an advanced stats perspective) as a rookie.
So what? We expect most rookies to struggle, right? That's true, but I'd be nervous about how LaMelo Ball and his camp would respond to those initial struggles. Again, I've never met the kid and have no real basis for this, but media interviews make him seem a little immature. That's totally understandable for a 19 year old, but it's not ideal for a 19 year old who's about to get handed the keys to an NBA franchise. If he struggles out of the gates, will he start to lose confidence? Will LaVar Ball start to make waves? Will the media gleefully tear him to shreds? No clue. And if I'm picking in the top 3, I'd prefer to have more confidence than question marks.
best fits
If we treat LaMelo Ball as a developmental project, then I'd prefer he land with a team like Chicago (#4). New coach Billy Donovan is a former PG himself, and spent decades working with young kids at the college level. If they slow play Ball's development, we may see the best of him down the road. Detroit (#7) also makes sense. Coach Dwane Casey has a pretty good reputation in player development himself, and he has a solid bridge PG in Derrick Rose to help buy Ball some time.
worst fits
Cleveland (#5) is an obviously wonky fit based on the current roster. I'd also assert that Charlotte (#3) is a poor fit as well. While the team desperately needs a signature star, they don't have the type of supporting cast that would be conducive to him right now. And if he struggles as a rookie, then coach James Borrego and the whole front office may be cleaned out. If that happens, a new administration would be inheriting a franchise player that they didn't pick in the first place.
(5) SF/PF Deni Avdija, Israel
The NBA tends to be reactionary when it comes to the draft, which can be particularly impactful for international prospects. Their stock tends to swing up and down more violently than a ride at Action Park. There was a ton of skepticism about Euros when Dirk Nowitzki came along. When he hit, the NBA got so excited they drafted Darko Milicic at # 2. Eventually that excitement wore off as the busts started to pile up again. But when Latvian Kristaps Porzingis looked like the real deal, it helped reverse that narrative and helped Dragan Bender go # 4 the following year.
In terms of that up-and-down timing, Deni Avdija stands to benefit. He's coming into the NBA on the heels of an incredible sophomore campaign from Luka Doncic. No one thinks that Avdija can be a superstar like Doncic, but teams aren't as wary of international wings (specifically white wings) these days. Avdija should go somewhere in the top 10 if not the top 5.
In my mind, that's justified. He's 6'9", which should allow him to play either the SF or PF positions. He hasn't shown to be an excellent shooter yet, but he should eventually be solid there. He's better suited as a playmaker and passer, and he can also use his size and skill to convert on slashes around the rim. I've seen some comparisons to Lamar Odom before, although that may be optimistic. More likely, he'll be a 4th or 5th starter. His experience as a pro should help toward that end, as he's used to working hard and fitting in on a team of vets.
best fits
If you project Deni Avdija to just "fit in" and be a solid starter, then he'd make sense on a team like Golden State (#2). He could effectively play the role of Harrison Barnes or old Andre Iguodala for them. If the intention is to make him more of a featured player, then the Knicks (#8) would be interesting. In that market, he has real star potential.
worst fits
I don't love the fit for Avdija in Charlotte (#3), where he may duplicate some of P.J. Washington's talents. Atlanta (#6) and Phoenix (#10) have also invested in young SF-PFs recently, so Avdija may find himself scraping for time there.
(6) SG/SF Devin Vassell, Florida State (HIGHER than most expert rankings)
Every single NBA team needs 3+D wings. They thirst for them like a dying man in the desert. And then, when a legitimate 3+D wing comes along, they often ignore them in favor of splashier players at other positions.
Part of the issue is that low-usage 3+D wings aren't going to put up monster stats. That's certainly true of Devin Vassell, who averaged a modest 12.7 points this past year. Still, you have to go deeper than the pure numbers alone and consider the context. Florida State had a stacked and balanced team. In fact, Vassell's 12.7 PPG was the highest on the roster (and came in only 28.8 minutes.) There's more in the tank here than we've seen so far. He can hit the three (42% and 42% from deep in his two years), and he shows a good feel for the game (2:1 assist/turnover ratio.)
Vassell shows even more potential on the defensive end. He's currently listed at 6'7" with a 6'10" wingspan, but he looks even longer than that to my eye. He's tenacious and disruptive (1.4 steals, 1.0 blocks) without being out of control. Presumably, he should be a good defender at either the SG or SF spot.
In a sense, Vassell's the prototype for a 3+D wing. To be fair, I don't anticipate him being a great shooter at the next level. His FT% was iffy, and he's apparently been tweaking his shot during the draft process. Still, if he can be a viable shooting threat in the way that Josh Richardson is (an inconsistent shooter who averages around 36%), then he should be a solid starter for an NBA team. That may not sound like something worthy of a top 5 pick, but the high "floor" helps him in this case. He also appears to have a strong character and work ethic, making him feel like an even safer bet.
best fits
Devin Vassell's skill set would fit on virtually any NBA roster -- but his perceived lack of upside may keep him from going as high as my personal ranking. If he does, then Cleveland (#5) would be a nice fit given their lack of big wings and their lack of defense. Defensive-challenged Washington (#9) would also make sense; Vassell tends to be listed as a SG but he should have enough size to play the SF for them.
worst fits
You can never have too many 3+D wings, but it may be a duplication to put Devin Vassell on the same team with Mikal Bridges in Phoenix (#10).
(7) PG Tyrese Haliburton, Iowa State
One of the reasons I'd have to be specific about a fit with a player like LaMelo Ball is that he needs the ball in his hands to maximize his potential. That's true for most lead guards.
Given that, it's a nice change of pace to see a prospect like Tyrese Haliburton come along. He's listed as a PG and he can perform those duties. This past season, he averaged 15.2 points and 6.5 assists per game. But he ALSO can operate as an off-the-ball player. As a freshman, he did exactly that, effectively working as a wing player and a glue guy on offense. His three-point shot looks wonky, but he converted 43% as a freshman and 42% as a sophomore. If that translates, he can be an effective spacer as well.
Haliburton's versatility also extends to the defensive end. He's 6'5" with an incredible 7'0" wingspan, allowing him to guard either PG or SGs. Like Devin Vassell, he also puts those tools to good use. Either one is an incredible athlete, but they're disruptive and locked in on that end. I'd expect Haliburton to be one of the better guard defenders in the NBA.
All in all, you may ask: why isn't this guy ranked HIGHER? The skill set would justify that. At the end of the day I don't see elite upside here (maybe George Hill?) because he may have some trouble getting his shot off in a halfcourt offense. Still, he's one of the safer prospects overall and a kid that you'd feel good betting on.
best fits
The New York Knicks (#8) may bring in a big-name guard like Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook, but if they stick with the rebuild then Tyrese Haliburton makes loads of sense. He can share playmaking duties with R.J. Barrett, and he can help Tom Thibodeau establish a defensive culture. He'd also make sense for Detroit (#7) and even Atlanta (#6). While the Hawks have Trae Young locked in at PG, Haliburton can play enough SG to justify 30+ overall minutes.
worst fits
Obviously any team that doesn't have room for a PG OR SG would be a problem here. Cleveland (#5) and Washington (#9) are the clearest examples of that. While Haliburton could theoretically guard some SFs, it's not the best use of his talent.
(8) PG Killian Hayes, France
If NBA centers are like NFL running backs, then point guards / lead playmakers may be like quarterbacks. There's positive and negatives to that comparison. Obviously, a good lead guard can immediately boost your team. At the same time, you don't really need more than one. And if you're not "the guy," then your impact is going to be limited.
Given that, there's a high bar to being a starting PG in the NBA. You have to be really, really friggin' good. According to many experts, Killian Hayes is exactly that. Physically he's what you want in the position, with a 6'5" frame. He averaged 16.8 points and 7.8 assists per 36 playing in Germany this year for a team that had a few former pros like Zoran Dragic. The Ringer has him # 1 overall.
Personally, I haven't completely bought into that hype yet. I can't claim to have season tickets to Ratiopharm Ulm, but when I watch highlights I don't really see ELITE traits here. He's not incredibly explosive, he's not a great shooter, he's over-reliant on his left hand. I have no doubt that he has the upside to be a good starter, but I don't think we've seen enough (or at least, I haven't) to make me confident in that projection.
best fits
Chicago (#4) and Detroit (#7) appear to be the most obvious fits for a potential star guard like Killian Hayes. And while the Knicks may have been underwhelmed by a French PG before, he would make sense for them at #8 as well.
worst fits
Teams with lead guards locked in -- Golden State (#2), Cleveland (#5), for example -- would be obviously problematic fits for Hayes. While he has the size to play some shooting guard defensively, he has a ways to go before he's a sharpshooting spacer.
(9) SG/SF Aaron Nesmith, Vanderbilt (HIGHER than most expert rankings)
Back when I was single, I dated a girl who presumably viewed me as a "developmental prospect." She'd always tell me how cool I'd look if I got some new jeans. How hot I'd be if I lost some weight. After a while, reality set in. It ain't happening, honey. What you see is what you get. The whole transformation idea may have worked with Chris Pratt, but it's not going to work with schlubby ol' Zandrick Ellison.
Sometimes it feels like NBA teams view prospects in the same delusional way. Josh Jackson can be a superstar -- if he develops his shot! Isaac Okoro can be a great pick -- if he becomes a great shooter! IF IF IF. We tend to forget that it's not that easy for a leopard to change his spots or for a player to suddenly develop a shooting stroke. It may have worked with Kawhi Leonard, but it's not working with most players.
Given that, we should value players who already have developed that skill. Aaron Nesmith is one of the best shooters in the draft -- right here, right now. He shot 52% from three and 83% from the line this past season. There's a sample size issue there (he only played 14 games prior to injury), but his shooting form looks fluid and suggests that he should be a legitimate 38-40% shooter from deep. While Nesmith isn't a great athlete or defender, his 7'0" wingspan should help him hang at either the SG or SF spots. All in all, we're talking about a player who should be a starter, or at the very least a high-level rotational player.
best fits
Aaron Nesmith isn't going to put a team on his back, but he can help carry the load offensively given his shooting ability. That should make him a good fit for a team like New Orleans (#13) as they look to replace J.J. Redick down the road. He'd also be an excellent fit with Orlando (#16) as they eye more shooters/scorers.
worst fits
It's hard to find a bad fit for a good shooting wing, but there are a few teams that may not have starting positions available. Phoenix (#10) already has Devin Booker and a few solid young SFs. Sacramento (#12) already has Buddy Hield and Bogdan Bogdanovic (presuming they retain them.)
(10) PG/SG R.J. Hampton, U.S/N.Z. (HIGHER than most expert rankings)
After that rant about delusions of grandeur with development prospects, let me try and talk you into a raw developmental prospect.
Like LaMelo Ball, R.J. Hampton went to play in the NBL during his gap year after high school. They were both top 10 prospects going in, but their stocks diverged from there. LaMelo Ball put up big numbers and locked himself into top 3 status. Hampton didn't showcase much (8.8 points per game on 41-30-68 shooting splits) and may drop out of the lottery altogether. But again, I'd caution us to consider context here. LaMelo Ball went to a bad team where he could jack up shots. Hampton played on a contending team that didn't spoon-feed him minutes.
Given that limited sample, I'm falling back on the "eye test" here. No doubt, Hampton's shot is a problem. He's a poor shooter now, and it may be 2-3 years before he straightens it out. At the same time, his size and explosion jumps out at you, particularly when he's attacking the basket. He also appears to be a mature and charismatic young man. That combo -- physical talent + basketball character -- tends to be a winning formula. There's some chance Hampton turns out to be a genuine star as a scoring lead guard. There's also a sizable chance he busts. Still, it's the type of gamble that teams in the late lottery should be considering.
best fits
In a PG-rich class, it'd be bold for Detroit (#8) to reach on R.J. Hampton. Still, he would fit there, as the team could groom him behind Derrick Rose for another year or two until he's ready to take over for major minutes. Any team that can afford him the luxury of patience would be a nice landing spot, even if it means going later in the draft to places like Boston (#14, #26) or Utah (#23.)
worst fits
I'd be less bullish on R.J. Hampton in situations where he may have to play early and take his lumps. The N.Y. Knicks (#8) have struggled to develop point guards Frank Ntilkina and Dennis Smith already, and a new coaching staff doesn't make those concerns go away. Hampton would also have lower upside on teams that already have scoring guards locked in, like Sacramento (#12) or Portland (#16).
(11) PF Obi Toppin, Dayton (LOWER than most expert rankings)
When Obi Toppin sees the list of names ahead of him, he should be stewing with rage. He's arguably the most productive player on the entire board. This past season at Dayton, he averaged 20.0 points on 63% shooting from the field. He's a good athlete and dunker, and he even hit 39% of his threes. At 6'9", he's a natural PF but he could theoretically play some SF or C too if need be. What else does a guy need to do to go in the top 5??
But while Toppin checks all the boxes on paper, I'm a little more skeptical. In fact, he reminds me a lot of Arizona PF Derrick Williams, who went # 2 in the 2011 draft. Many pundits thought Williams was the best player in the class, fresh on the heels of an awesome sophomore season that saw him average 19.5 points per game on 60% shooting and 57% (!) from three. The trouble is: Williams benefited from a small sample size from 3 that year (74 total). And while he was athletic in the dunking sense, he didn't have the hip movement to guard 3s or 4s effectively.
We see some of the same traits play out here with Toppin. He dominated this past season as a (22 year old) sophomore. Still, I'm doubtful that his three-point shooting is as good as the numbers suggest. I'm doubtful that his run-and-dunk athleticism translates to the defensive end, where he often looks stiff when changing direction. I can see a scenario where Toppin is a scoring big in the mold of a John Collins, but it's more likely to me that he'll be a scorer off the bench instead.
best fits
While I'm cool on Obi Toppin myself, I fully admit that I could be wrong and he may just end up being Rookie of the Year. That may happen if he plays on a team like Washington (#9) where his guards will be able to take a lot of pressure off and give him good opportunities to score. Cleveland (#5) would also make some sense if they trade Kevin Love.
worst fits
If Toppin's defense is going to be bad, then he'd be a poor fit with Atlanta (#6). I also don't see much of a fit with Sacramento (#12) given the presence of Marvin Bagley III. In the long run, both may end up being smallball 5s.
(12) SF Isaac Okoro, Auburn (LOWER than most expert rankings)
We've all had this experience before. You'll go see a movie that you hear everyone rave about and you come away... underwhelmed. It's fine. It's OK. But you just don't get all the fuss about it.
Right out of that Silver Linings Playbook comes Isaac Okoro. His stats don't jump off the page: 12.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, 0.9 steals, 0.9 blocks. He's allegedly a great defensive player, but his dimensions (6'6" with a 6'8" wingspan) don't suggest "stopper." Worse yet, he's a poor shooter from distance (29% from three, 67% from the line.) The last time I got this sense of "meh-ness" was Jarrett Culver last year. I didn't understand how he went in the top 5, and I'm not going to understand how Okoro goes in the top 10 this year.
To be clear, I don't think Okoro (or Culver) is a BAD prospect, just that they're both overrated by the community. Okoro is definitely a strong kid who is active around the rim. He's a live body. He could theoretically improve his shooting and become a starter. Still, "potential starter" is not something that I want in a top 10 pick.
best fits
While I don't love Isaac Okoro myself, I can see some good fits on the board. Washington (#9) could use some thicker wings who can play solid defense. Portland (#16) is incredibly desperate for capable wings themselves.
worst fits
With Okoro, I don't necessarily think the worst fits are a matter of skill set as much as expectation. If he goes as high as Chicago (#4) or Cleveland (#5), I suspect he'll disappoint in terms of the returns and garner some resentment from the fan base.
(13) SG/SF Josh Green, Arizona
As oddly overrated as Isaac Okoro is (in my mind), Josh Green is oddly underrated. Okoro tends to go about 10 spots higher in mock drafts, but they seem nearly identical in terms of a head-to-head comparison. In fact, I had to go back and forth about which I'd rank higher. They're both good athletes for their position and should be backend starters at the next level. Okoro is thicker and better around the rim, while Green is further along as a shooter. Overall I leaned to Okoro because he had the size to match up with bigger SFs and has a little more of a bullying scorer gene in him, but it was a close race.
In fact, you can argue that Josh Green's selflessness will actually benefit him in the NBA. He's a "team guy," with an underrated passing ability and basketball IQ. The stats don't jump off the pages in that regard (2.6 assists, 1.6 turnovers), but he was also playing with a good college PG in Nico Mannion. As he moves to the NBA, he's unlikely to have the ball much either, but he projects to be an all-around glue guy who can help on both ends.
best fits
As with Isaac Okoro, Portland (#16) could be a nice landing spot for a solid wing player. And while New Orleans (#13) has a lot of athleticism already, it never hurts to have another viable wing. They tended to play small at the SG-SF spot, which hurt their defense overall. Playing Green could help them when they slide Brandon Ingram over to the 4 and Zion Williamson at the 5.
worst fits
I don't see many "bad" fits for Josh Green on the board, but you'd prefer that he went to a team that intended to make him a part of the future. Minnesota (#17) may not be able to do that if they already have Jarrett Culver and Josh Okogie. Brooklyn (#19) may not be looking for long-term projects since they're in a "win now" mode.
(14) PG Tyrell Terry, Stanford
Tyrell Terry is rocketing up draft boards on account of his stellar shooting ability (41% from 3, 89% from the line) and his better-than-expected measurement of 6'3". It's only natural that pundits would start comparing him to stud shooters like Steph Curry.
That said, not every stud shooter is Steph Curry. Some are Seth Curry. Some are Quinn Cook. There's a slight chance Terry breaks out as a good starter, but there's a better than average chance he peaks as a rotational player instead. Still, he should be an asset to a team as a spacer, particularly if they run their offense through a playmaking forward (like a LeBron James).
And in case you're wondering, no he is NOT related to Jason Terry, although some of their skill sets do overlap as scoring guards with deep range.
best fits
If we presume that Tyrell Terry can be a Seth (not Steph) type player, then adding him to Dallas (#18) makes sense. He can develop behind Seth for a year or two as he gains weight, and then help complement Luka Doncic as a spacer after that. Similarly, he makes sense for Philadelphia (#21) as well. We'd still lock Ben Simmons into the starting PG role, but Terry could play alongside him in lineups or be used as a sparkplug off the bench.
worst fits
Teams that may be eyeing Tyrell Terry as a surefire starter will have to be careful. For example, Phoenix (#10) needs an heir apparent for Ricky Rubio, but a Terry + Devin Booker combo may be problematic on the defensive end. Some other teams -- Brooklyn (#19) and Denver (#22) -- already have sharpshooter guards, so they don't have as strong of a need for this type of player.
(15) PF Aleksej Pokusevski, Serbia
We mentioned that LaMelo Ball may be the biggest boom/bust prospect in the class, likening him to gambling on Roulette. Enter Aleksej Pokusevski. "Gambling" may not even be doing it justice. This is like risking your family fortune on a bag of magic beans.
But hey, that worked for Jack, and it could work for an NBA team as well. I have a friend who works in coaching who raved about Pokusevski and considers him a top 10 prospect overall. After all, this is a legit 7'0" player with true perimeter skills. Playing for Olympiacos' development team, he averaged 16.7 points, 12.2 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 2.0 steals, and 2.8 blocks per 36 minutes. He hasn't even turned 19 years old yet, giving him an enormous amount of upside.
Still, he scares the hell out of me. He's listed at 7'0" and 200 pounds, with narrow shoulders that make you doubt how much weight he'll be able to carry in the long term. His body type doesn't remind you of any current NBA forwards; it reminds you of two kids wearing a trenchcoat.
All in all, Pokusevski seems like a great prospect to invest in, presuming you don't have to withdraw from the bank until 2023 or 2024. To that end, teams should only consider them if they feel confident in their long-term job security.
best fits
If the goal is to send Aleksej Pokusevski to a good, stable organization, then you can't do much better than San Antonio (#11). Even if Gregg Popovich retires from coaching, R.C. Buford should be around to help the next coach (Becky Hammon? Will Hardy? R.C.'s son Chase?). And if the goal is to find a good stable GM, Sam Presti and Oklahoma City (#25) would be a great home as they prepare for a long-term rebuild.
worst fits
Orlando (#15) always values length, but they have limited space left in the frontcourt and limited leg room left on that poor charter plane.
I wasn't kidding when I said this post was "overly" long. The rest of the top 20 got cut off because of a length limit. I'll try to include them in the comment section.
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Offseason Blueprint: the Los Angeles Lakers may win the title tonight, but their ambition won't end there

The NBA season is nearly over: be it 1, 2, or 3 more games left. With the offseason looming around the corner, we've been looking ahead with our OFFSEASON BLUEPRINT series. In each entry, we preview some big decisions and make some recommendations for plans of attack along the way.
Like the NBA, we've officially come to the end of the road and to our final team, the Los Angeles Lakers.
step one: know it will never be All Quiet on the Western Front
The Los Angeles Lakers have plenty of fans, but also plenty of people who enjoy watching them struggle (some even run their own sports websites.) It feels like they've been a punching bag for almost a decade now. Even when the team landed a coup and signed LeBron James, there were plenty of skeptics and haters picking at the roster and fanning the flames of front office tension. Even when the team followed that up with a trade for Anthony Davis, there were STILL doubters and haters camped at the gates.
At the end of the day, LeBron James and company only had one way to shut them up: win.
Now, no one can criticize them anymore. Whatever they did to get here -- it worked. LeBron James deserves a huge amount of credit for this presumptive title (no offense, Miami) but there's plenty to go around. Anthony Davis reminded the world that he's a friggin' beast. Frank Vogel did a great job getting the defense to play on a string, especially on the perimeter. The maligned bench with Rajon Rondo, Markieff Morris, and Kyle Kuzma even stepped up in a major way on the road to the Finals.
While the team may be drenched with champagne by the time you read this, they still won't be satisfied. LeBron James went back to Cleveland to win a title. He didn't go to L.A. and recruit Anthony Davis to win a title. He wants to win multiple titles. He may get his 4th ring after this year, which means he'll only be 2 away from catching Michael Jordan. If he can do that, then there won't be any doubt about his GOAT status. And honestly, it's possible. James still looks like a top 5 player (if not 1 overall), and Anthony Davis is in the heart of his prime. With a decent supporting cast around them, they're going to be in title contention for the next two or three years.
However, the Lakers can't get complacent. They deserved this title, but they didn't exactly beat Murderers' Row to get here. In fact, their playoff opponents had the weakest seed value and weakest W-L percentage of any title team since 2000. Next season may be tougher sledding. The L.A. Clippers could be a real threat with better coaching and better rotations. The Milwaukee Bucks could be a real threat with better health. Health permitting, the Brooklyn Nets have the star power and the depth to be a force themselves. It's going to be a dogfight next season. The Lakers still may be the top dogs in that fight, but they're going to have to scrape and claw to get that bone again.
step two: convince your free agents that It's a Wonderful Life
LeBron James is a champion for player empowerment, but that concept is going to put his L.A. Lakers in a precarious position this offseason. Some decisions with be out of their hands. The team has an inordinate amount of player options for next season, with 5 separate players having the right to opt "in" or "out" of their contracts. Let's take a look at each of those one individually.
The most important, of course, will be Anthony Davis. He has the choice whether to opt in to his $28.7M salary. It's weird to say, but $28.7M is a bargain. Davis is a 27-year-old superstar. He deserves the new max and then some. From the Lakers' perspective, the only question will be timing the extension in the best interest of Davis and the team as a whole. If they wait until next offseason to give him a full max, they may have some more wiggle room in salary to bring in extra free agents (in Offseason 2021, not Offseason 2020.) Perhaps they can convince AD to wait until then to accrue more years. At the same time, uncertainty isn't their friend. If the Lakers disappoint next season and LeBron James hits a wall (unlikely, but theoretically possible) then perhaps Davis doesn't want to stay tethered to this older roster for the long haul. Perhaps his relationship with James -- great now -- bleeds into resentment over time. Who the heck knows. Superstar pairings don't always end with "happily ever after." Even that remote concern would make me push for a max extension for AD ASAP.
The second most important player option will be Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. When the Lakers first signed them, it raised some eyebrows and potential tampering conspiracy theories. These days, his $8.5M player option looks like a good value. KCP shot well this year and played hard on defense. Effectively, he looked like the player that Danny Green was supposed to be. Your hope here is that the Lakers have built enough goodwill with KCP and his representatives to make this a friendly negotiation. Whether that means he opts in, or whether that means he signs a long-term deal, it's a relationship that needs to continue.
step three: but convince others to ride off like Shane
Conversely, there are a few player options that the team may try to talk players out of taking. Avery Bradley missed the bubble for personal reasons, but the Lakers' backcourt did just fine without him. At this stage in their careers, Alex Caruso is probably better at the 3+D guard role. Still, it's going to be up to Bradley whether to return or not. He can opt in to his $5.0M player option. The value is OK in the broadest sense, but perhaps the Lakers are rooting for him to test the market elsewhere. The Lakers should take a hard line here and not offer him extra years; if Bradley leaves to chase a long-term deal, so be it. If he opts in, he may be used as a potential trade chip.
Meanwhile, JaVale McGee has a $4.2M player option himself. McGee started 68/68 games in the regular season, but he didn't always look like their best option in the playoffs. As he ages (now 32), he'll continue to struggle with certain matchups. I don't think McGee can match that $4M anywhere else, so trying to convince him to opt out may be a losing proposition. Again, if McGee opts in, then the Lakers need to consider utilizing his salary as a potential trade piece.
Some of those decisions -- whether they want to keep Avery Bradley and JaVale McGee -- may hinge on some other free agents on the team. Backup PG Rajon Rondo has his own player option of $2.7M. All season long, I'd been talking about Rondo as a potential liability for the team. Instead, he justified some of that "Playoff Rondo" talk. Between Rondo and Caruso, you'd prefer Caruso getting extended minutes. Between Rondo and Bradley, it's more of a debate. Rondo deserves more than $2.7M, so I expect him to opt out. Presumably, he appreciates the role and limelight here in L.A. and wouldn't play hardball. If he's amenable to a short-term, reasonable deal, then you'd want to keep him in house. If his playoff hype spirals into outsized offers (anything over $6M or so) then you should thank him for his service and wish him well.
The Lakers should treat backup C Dwight Howard (an unrestricted free agent) in a similar way. Now 34, he's become a role player. Moreover, his role -- as the more traditional center -- is no longer a valuable one either. Still, he's pretty good at that role -- arguably better than JaVale McGee. The team shouldn't over-invest in this one-two punch though. If Howard wants to re-sign for a bargain basement deal, great. If he expects a mid-sized contract or an extra year, then he may be on the move again. For both Rondo and Howard, I'd stand firm on 1 year deals. However, the team can potentially add in "team option" years on top of that. The purpose would be less to entice them into staying and more to make them potential trade chips (in terms of salary matching) later on down the road.
The Lakers will have more free agents to discuss. Markieff Morris is an interesting one; he looked like a shell of himself after some injuries, but he showed signs of life in the postseason. If that's legit, then he could potentially be a good rotational player for the team (when they go "small" with AD at the 5.) The verdict from team doctors will be crucial to determining his value. Alternatively, vets like J.R. Smith and Dion Waiters don't appear to have any value at all. Fortunately, they don't have player options either.
step four: solve the mystery of The Third Man
All season long, we heard that the Lakers would need a third star to emerge if they were going to win the title. Kyle Kuzma never got there, but it didn't matter. Perhaps we've just defaulted into a more familiar era of the NBA. Shaq and Kobe won without another "star." Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen won without another "star" (Dennis Rodman was more of an ultra role player.) With Kevin Durant removed from Golden State, perhaps the bar has been lowered back to reasonable heights for NBA title teams.
Still, the Lakers need to figure out who Kyle Kuzma is, and what his role should be. He averaged 16-6 as a rookie, but showed some signs of a "good stats / bad team" kind of player. That fear hasn't gone away. Since then, Kuzma's shot 30% and 32% from three over the following two years, and played poor defense overall. ESPN real plus/minus metric graded him as a -0.4 and -0.7 defensive impact, while box plus/minus had him at -1.2 and -1.0. That same BPM metric graded him below replacement level overall (-0.2 VORP).
Kuzma has played OK in these playoffs, but he hasn't had a major role. In fact, his minutes per game is down to 23.2 in the postseason so far, with 0 starts drawn. It's clear that Frank Vogel and the team don't believe he's the 3rd best player on the team. He may not even be the 4th or 5th best player.
You may ask: who cares? Kuzma isn't a world beater, but the Lakers beat the world anyway. Still, it's an important question hanging over their heads. Kuzma is under contract for one more year, and then will enter restricted free agency (at a time when they will be a lot of cap space out there.) Based on name value, he's going to get a decent contract.
If the Lakers don't believe he's worth decent money, it may be time to trade him now. (Realistically, the time to trade him was last offseason, but what can ya do.) Kuzma's $3.5M salary is easy to move, and the team can attach other contracts like McGee, Bradley, and Quinn Cook ($3M) to match a deal anywhere from the $3M-$15M range if need be.
What can the Lakers get for Kuzma on the open market? It's hard to tell. He's a polarizing name, so it may depend on whether their trade partner reads reddit or not. I'd call up Detroit and ask about Luke Kennard. If Houston's blowing it up, I'd ask about Robert Covington. If Minnesota's locked into Anthony Edwards at # 1, maybe they'd be open to trading Malik Beasley in a sign and trade. If you want to play dirty, you can tell Portland that Gary Trent Jr. (newest client of Klutch) is going to sign with the Lakers next season no matter what, so they may as well recoup something for him now. Fair? Ethical? Ehh. But hey, it's proven to be effective before.
step five: encourage others to hunt for the Treasure of the Sierra Madre
The Lakers don't have much cap space this offseason, but that's not a major problem. They're not going to have to list job openings on monster.com -- available players are going to flock to them. The most obvious reason to join the Lakers would be to chase rings. However, it goes deeper than that. There's not a lot of teams with cap space this offseason, but there are plenty with space next season.
If you're a free agent who's not getting a lot of attention, there's one great way to get attention: play with LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers. You can inflate your stock for next offseason, when hopefully you cash in.
If I ran the Lakers, my first call would be to a veteran like Darren Collison. Collison took the season off to pursue his faith, but reportedly he may return next year. If so, he'd be a dream fit for this Lakers' rotation. Collison can run the point when LeBron James rests, but he can also serve as a complementary spacer. The former UCLA standout has become a very reliable shooter -- hitting over 40% from deep in his last four seasons. He's undersized and sometimes outmatched on D, but the team has Alex Caruso ready to match up with bigger guards. Collison's skill set would merit $10+ million in a good market, but perhaps NBA teams are going to want to see him "prove it" after his extended absence. If that's the case, the Lakers can thank their lucky stars and Jehovah for delivering him into their laps.
Other veterans who may be drawn to the Lakers like a moth to the flame would include: the underrated E'Twaun Moore (NO) and likable vet Courtney Lee (DAL). Moe Harkless (NYK) could probably get more elsewhere, but he may decide to bet on himself and inflate his price for next season.
Since Anthony Davis still prefers playing PF, depth at center will be more important for the Lakers than other teams. As mentioned, JaVale McGee will probably be back (barring a trade) and Dwight Howard may be as well. If not, the team could try to recruit a player who wants to boost their stock. Nerlens Noel (OKC) could benefit from the spotlight like that; better yet, his agent happens to be some dude named Rich Paul.
Overall, the Lakers need to keep pushing and trying to improve, be it through free agency, through trades, or through the draft (where they have the # 28 pick.) This team may have been good enough to win the title, but as mentioned, one title isn't going to satisfy this star, this team, and this fan base. Hollywood's all about excess, and the goal will be to overindulge over the next few years.
other offseason blueprints
ATL, BKN, BOS, CHA, CHI, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, HOU, IND, GS, LAC, MEM, MIA, MIL, MIN, NO, NYK, OKC, ORL, PHI, PHX, POR, SA, SAC, TOR, UTA, WAS
submitted by ZandrickEllison to nba [link] [comments]

Should the Nuggets Take a Chance on Bruno Caboclo?

Since Jerami Grant left Denver for Detroit, the Nuggets have lost a significant amount of rim protection. Teams are taking advantage of Denver’s lack of size and length, and getting easy shots close to the basket. Jokic offers practically everything you could want out of a centre, but he struggles to block shots at hoop. Jerami Grant was the rare player who is capable of protecting the rim and guarding out on the perimeter. Caboclo has shown glimpses of being this type of player too. With Grant gone, I believe that Bruno Caboclo is worth taking a gamble on for the Nuggets. Especially with Denver’s track record of developing prospects.
I wrote a blog post about why I believe that Bruno Caboclo is worth taking a chance on. I’ve pasted the link below. I have also pasted all of the post that relates to the Nuggets below. Please let me know what you think, I feel that everyone has forgotten Caboclo despite him finally starting to develop into the player he is meant to be.
https://prospectpreviews.com/bruno-caboclo-teams/
NBA Teams that should give Bruno Caboclo a Chance
NBA fans will remember Bruno Caboclo from his now infamous draft night description; “Two years from being two years away”. This description proved to be relatively accurate, as Caboclo arrived in the NBA very raw. However at 6 foot 9 with a near 7 foot 7 wingspan, Caboclo clearly had the physical tools to be an NBA player. Over the last 6 and a half years, Caboclo has put in the work and gradually improved each year. He now looks to be an NBA ready role player, but he currently does not have an NBA team.
Caboclo’s Stats
After largely playing in the NBA G-League for the first 4 years of his career, Caboclo got his first opportunity to play some real NBA minutes on the Memphis Grizzlies. During the 2018-19 season Caboclo averaged 8.3 points, 1.3 assists, 4.6 rebounds and 1.0 blocks in 23.5 minutes per game. He achieved this with a 42.7% field goal, 36.9% 3pt and 84% free throw percentage. These numbers are good for a young role-playing stretch 4.
During Caboclo’s 14 games for the Houston Rockets from 2020 through to early 2021, he averaged 3.2 points, 2.1 rebounds, 0.5 blocks and 0.4 steals. While these numbers are low, Caboclo was only given 6.3 minutes per game, making these stats much more impressive. His 48.6% field goal and 87.5% free throw were the highest of his career. However his 3 point percentage dropped to 15%. While this drop off in three point percentage is frustrating, his increase in free throw shooting is a good sign that he is improving his shot mechanics. If Caboclo’s Houston stats are adjusted to per 36 minutes, he averaged 18.3 points, 12 rebounds, 2.9 blocks and 2.3 steals. While these numbers don’t mean that Caboclo is a star (or ever will be), they show that even in limited minutes he is still improving and deserves a chance to prove himself on another NBA team.
What Caboclo brings to an NBA team
Caboclo’s largest strength has always been his impressive wingspan. At 6’9 with a 7’7 wingspan, Caboclo has the measurements to play center. What he lacks in strength, he makes up for with speed and length. Caboclo has been a very inconsistent defender at the NBA level. While Caboclo has great length and good foot speed for a 4, his defensive decision making isn’t always great. This can be seen with Caboclo biting on pump fakes and getting beaten with eurosteps. However Caboclo is good at contesting and blocking shots. This makes him a good power forward and small-ball center.
Caboclo’s shot blocking and length in my opinion could lead to him being a rim-protecting 4 to compliment a weak defensive center. This would be a similar role to the one that Jerami Grant played for Nikola Jokic. Grant is the rare player who can defend on the perimeter and protect the rim. NBA teams in this modern era of basketball can only really afford to play one big who can’t defend on the perimeter at a time. This is due to the frequency in which pick and rolls are used by teams to target these players who cannot defend guards. As was seen in the 2020 playoffs when the Portland Trail Blazers played Hassan Whiteside and Jusuf Nurkic at the same time. LeBron James destroyed the Blazers in the pick and roll. If the defenders went over the screen, LeBron would beat the players to the rim easily, and if they went under, James would have an open 3. Caboclo’s speed and length on the perimeter would help negate this problem. Bruno Caboclo is a solid perimeter defender and good rim-protector. With more coaching and playing time, he could grow into the role of being a rim-protecting 4.
NBA Fits
Caboclo would be a good fit for a center who struggles to protect the rim. Centers such as Nikola Jokic, Karl-Anthony Towns (even though he has protected the rim well so far this season), Nikola Vucevic and LaMarcus Aldridge.
Denver Nuggets
In the 2019-20 NBA season the Nuggets were the 11th best defensive team in the NBA. As of the 17th January, Denver has posted the 20th best defense in the NBA. A large part of this drop off is their lack of rim protection. Jokic offers practically everything you could ask for in a center when it comes to offense and rebounding, but he lacks perimeter defense and rim protection. Jerami Grant compensated for Jokic’s lack of these two skills. While Caboclo’s defense is far more inconsistent than Grant’s, Caboclo has only continued to improve each season, even if his improvements are gradual. The Denver Nuggets are very good at developing raw players, I expect that Jerami Grant would continue this trend. With Michael Porter Jr and Bol Bol’s development there will be less minutes available at power forward, however Caboclo is not at Grant’s level (yet) and will not require nearly as many minutes (at least not right away).
submitted by Swanktub to denvernuggets [link] [comments]

Offseason Blueprint: if the Boston Celtics turn their Big Hero 6 into the Magnificent Seven, they may be in the Finals themselves next year

The NBA Finals are underway, but there are now 28 teams sitting at home with nothing to do but twiddle their thumbs, watch LeBron, and wait for next season to start.
For their sake, we wanted to look ahead with the next edition of the OFFSEASON BLUEPRINT series. In each, we'll preview some big decisions and make some recommendations for plans of attack along the way. Today, we're looking at the Boston Celtics.
step one: don't flush money down the toilet
This is a difficult entry to write, because the Boston Celtics are a good team without any major problems hanging over their head. They were top 5 in W-L record, top 5 in point differential. They finished 4th in offense, 4th in defense. They advanced to the Conference Finals, knocking off a tough Toronto team along the way. If they rolled it back next season, they should be considered a top 5 team once again.
If you can nitpick, you can find reasons to quibble with some of their big splash free agency signings. Gordon Hayward got a huge contract and didn't sustain his All-Star level (for reasons out of his control.) Last offseason, the team gave out another huge contract to Kemba Walker ($32M + $34M + $36M + $38M player option), and they may be regretting that now. Walker never looked at 100% health and he got picked on some defensively in the playoffs. The idea of paying him that kind of money for three more seasons may be a little scary.
Of course, there's no use crying over spilled milk. Gordon Hayward will likely "opt in" to his $34M player option. Is that an overpay? Sure. Still, Hayward is still a solid starter with a balanced skill set. With another year removed from that injury, he may take another step up.
As for Walker, the hope is that he'll do the same with an offseason to recover and another year in the system. It can't be easy to go from the star of a franchise to the 2nd or 3rd option. In fact, most of Walker's offensive decline can be chalked up to a reduced role. His PPG dropped from 25.6 to 20.4, but that comes after his minutes dropped by 3.8 and his field goal attempts dropped by 4.4 per game. In terms of his efficiency, there wasn't a big difference. He actually scored a higher true shooting percentage (up from 56% to 58%). His offensive box plus/minus stayed near the same at + 4.9, which ranked as the highest on Boston's team.
Walker didn't look great in the bubble, but I'm going to chalk that up to some lingering injuries. He's still only 30 years old, so he hasn't gotten materially worse in a year. Will he get much worse by age 32? At 33? That's possible. But again, the Celtics have already committed to that. They can try to float trade packages for Walker to get off that contract, but I don't see teams beating down their door for it. If a team like the Knicks wants Walker, they may not offer anything back in return (aside from their willingness to take the contract.) Given Boston's situation as a team on the verge of the Finals, it doesn't make a lot of sense to take a step back like that just for cap relief.
step two: promote a temp to a full time desk
The Boston Celtics have a very strong "top six." You have the two rising stars in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. You have the two veterans in Kemba Walker and Gordon Hayward. You have the super role players in Marcus Smart and Daniel Theis. After that, it's more of a grab bag. No other player on the team averaged more than 20 minutes a night in the regular season, and no other player averaged more than 18 minutes a night in the postseason.
A team can make a deep run in the playoffs by going six strong, but it makes the margin of error narrower. When one of those players gets hurt -- like Gordon Hayward did this postseason -- it strains your depth. Beyond that, having an extra member of the full-time cast allows your players to take nights off and manage their minutes in anticipation of that deep playoff run. Hayward and Walker are both 30 now, so it's going to be important to keep them fresh.
Effectively, we want to take this "top six" and make it a "top seven." (Hence the post title.)
The top candidate for a promotion would be rookie PF Grant Williams. To me, Williams has more offensive potential than fellow forward Semi Ojeleye. After three good years at Tennessee, Williams dropped to # 22 in the draft based on the perception that he was more of a "college player" who couldn't keep up with NBA athletes. That didn't look to be the case so far for Williams (or for Cam Johnson in Phoenix, by the by.) Williams is a high-IQ player who can potentially play several different positions. He needs to keep increasing his range (25% from three), but he's been working toward that over his career. If he can take a leap next year, that'd be a major boon for the Celtics.
Fellow rookies Romeo Langford and Carsen Edwards may be slightly behind on the development curve, but it'd be great if they could get on the track toward the rotation eventually. Langford projects as a quality scorer who could potentially replace Gordon Hayward in the lineup in 1-2 years. Meanwhile, Edwards was a major shot maker in college who still has a lot of work to do. It may be too optimistic to think he could be a starter one day, but perhaps he could take the reserve role from Brad Wanamaker (a free agent.) If not, Tremont Waters (another rookie) may try to vie for that spot himself. It's not exactly Game of Thrones, but it's Game of Bench Seats. If nothing are ready for 15 or so minutes, then the team may need to re-sign Wanamaker or another filler vet.
In an ideal world, the Celtics would have faith that Robert Williams would be ready for an elevated role himself. They may lean more toward smallball bigs, but it's nice to have the option of a more traditional big at center as well. Enes Kanter has a player option for $5M that he may take -- he may not. He may try to finagle a longer-term deal somewhere. But if the team trusts the Time Lord, they can negotiate from a position of strength on that front.
No matter what happens, the Celtics will likely need their "7th man" to come from within. They have $120M committed on the cap for next season, so they're going to need to rely on internal improvements.
step three: bundle like the Big Short
If you thought the Boston Celtics had a lot of prospects in their "farm system" already, just wait. In this upcoming draft, they'll have pick # 14. And pick # 26. And pick # 30. And pick # 47.
Danny Ainge has always valued the draft and having a lot of picks, but we don't need this many. After all, we're trying to win the NBA title, not the G-League title.
The most obvious tactic would be bundling up these assets and trying to upgrade somehow. Like in The Big Short, perhaps a bunch of low-end assets can equal something of value. Still, the Celtics and their fans need to be reasonable here. They've tried bundling up lower draft picks in order to move for a while now, and always seem surprised when teams reject it (thinking of the potential Justise Winslow trade-up, primarily.) The truth is, these mid-to-late R1 picks aren't as valuable as many people seem to think. If the team packages all four of those picks together (14, 26, 30, 47) in order to move up, they may only land around pick # 9 or so. This isn't the NFL; NBA teams tend to value quality over quantity in the draft.
For a team that's already pretty strong and balanced, there may be a tendency to keep all their picks and just swing for a home run or two. The trouble is: there's only so much room on the roster. Consolidating (or pushing some of those picks back to future drafts) may be necessary.
If the Celtics can't move up and stay at # 14, they should have the option of getting another solid prospect. Some that may be intriguing to me personally would be Arizona SG/SF Josh Green ("Green"? karmic!), Villanova SF Saddiq Bey, or Maryland PF Jalen Smith. All three are quality prospects that project as rotational players in a year or two. A bigger home run swing may be Aleksej Pokusevski, the skilled 7'0" stretch big from Serbia. Pokusevski's narrow frame would make me nervous to bet on him if I was a GM on the ropes who needed to hit on my pick, but the Celtics have more freedom than that. They can take some chances if they want. Other upside plays would include PG/SG R.J. Hampton (U.S./New Zealand) and SF Jaden McDaniels (Washington).
With the # 26 pick, the Celtics could also get a decent prospect as well. You can never go wrong with a traditional 3+D prospect like SF Robert Woodard (Mississippi State). I also wouldn't rule out taking a traditional big like Vernon Carey (Duke). No one wants traditional scoring bigs anymore, but that's the reason that a player like that (who averaged 18-9 as a freshman) would slip down to # 24. In another era, the kid may be a top 10 pick. At the very least, he could replace the Enes Kanter role as a scoring sub.
step four: keep on truckin'
Hmm. Usually these offseason blueprints have 4 or 5 steps, but I'm running out of ideas here. As mentioned, things are running pretty smoothly for this franchise. I don't think Danny Ainge needs much help from reddit right now.
Still, I'll throw in some minor little notes that don't even merit a full section.
WHAT CAN BROWN DO FOR YOU? The Celtics have a lot of shot makers, but sometimes their offense can stall and fall into iso or hero ball. They need to keep pushing forward with ball movement and set plays if need be. One stat I noticed: Jaylen Brown is an exceptional shooter from the corner. He's at 43% from his career, and that swelled to 48% this season. Running action to get him more of those shots would be helpful.
REUNITE GERMANY. The team has a $5M option on center Daniel Theis that they'll definitely pick up. After that, Theis will be an unrestricted free agent. If I ran the team, I'd start talking to Theis about an extension. There may be a perception that the team can play any smallball center and save some money at the position, but I'd disagree. Theis is an underrated player that fits the modern NBA well. There may be a matchup here and there where he struggles, but overall he's a good starter and may need to be paid like one. He's still a little "under the radar," so perhaps they can get a team-friendly deal if they extend him now.
KEEP YOUR COACHING DEPTH STRONG. Celtics assistant coach Jay Larranaga is one of the better lieutenants in the game. He had been floated for some head coaching jobs in the past, but seems to have been lost in the shadows with all the major movement on the sidelines this year. Hopefully, for Boston's sake, Larranaga doesn't feel discouraged by that and doesn't start looking for head coaching opportunities elsewhere. His father is a good college coach, and he may decide to go that NCAA route eventually himself. The team should keep him well compensated so he doesn't feel the need to do that.
Overall, we're talking minor tweaks for this next season. The Celtics' chances of winning a title will hinge on how much they can improve -- both from their young stars and from their young bench.
other offseason blueprints
ATL, BKN, CHA, CHI, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, HOU, IND, GS, LAC, LAL, MEM, MIA, MIL, MIN, NO, NYK, OKC, ORL, PHI, PHX, POR, SA, SAC, TOR, UTA, WAS
submitted by ZandrickEllison to nba [link] [comments]

99 cent store free agents: Small Forwards

The NBA offseason is always filled with exciting storylines like star free agents and blockbuster trades.
But rather than dwell on the obvious, this series intends to do the opposite: focus on the lower-profile free agents who may have some value to teams. No NBA player is actually "99 Cents," of course, but these are all players who may be bargains based on their perceived market. Most of the players mentioned will probably go in the $3-5M range in terms of salary. Some exceptions will be marked as "featured items" that may go in the higher $5-10M range. If a player is listed as a "clearance rack," then they may be on the fringes of NBA rosters and take minimum deals.
This "99 Cent Store" series has been open for business for the last two offseasons. In the past, we've highlighted names like Fred VanVleet (pre breakout), Davis Bertans, and Christian Wood. Not all of the items turn out to be gems (is Nerlens Noel still not a DPOY candidate yet?), but the returns have been largely positive so far. Let's see if we can keep that momentum going this season.
—-
99 cent store
Josh Jackson, Memphis Grizzlies, UFA, 23 years old
Like most of us on this sub, I have moments when I watch the NBA, watch the roster moves, watch the draft, and think: I could do that. Obviously I couldn't be an actual player, but perhaps I could build a winning team behind the scenes. I've had a long and successful career in fantasy sports, so naturally a GM job would be the logical next step. Daryl Morey out, Zandrick Ellison in.
The 2017 NBA Draft was one of those moments for me. Prior to the draft, I wrote a few posts on here, explaining why consensus top prospect Markelle Fultz shouldn't be the # 1 pick. Clearly, I am a genius operating on a higher plane than the Bryan Colangelos of the world. Unfortunately, the alternative prospect that I advocated for wasn't Jayson Tatum. Or De'Aaron Fox. Or even Lonzo Ball. Instead, I thought the # 1 prospect in the class was... Josh Jackson. Whoops. Jackson became an even bigger bust than Fultz (for his original team), causing the Phoenix Suns to dump him and wash their hands clean. Turns out: I have no clue what I'm talking about after all.
But while I may have given up on my hidden genius, I'm still not ready to give up on Josh Jackson as a player. After all, no one expected Jackson to be a finished product. Back at Kansas, his shot looked funky and in need of an overhaul. Still, he had athleticism, defensive tenacity, and flashed some ball skills and passing ability as well. All in all, I thought he may develop into a player in the mold of a Jimmy Butler.
Unfortunately, his NBA career stumbled out of the gates. If you're going to be the next Jimmy Butler, you need to work at it. Butler may be a polarizing figure, but he's undoubtedly a hard worker. He has the grit, determination, and chip on his shoulder to get better and better. In contrast, Josh Jackson had some issues off the court that made you doubt his dedication. His shooting hadn't improved much either. Even now, he hit on only 31.9% of his threes (29.8% career.)
Still, if you're a stubborn Jackson optimist like I am, then you can see some flashes of progress here. After being humbled by a trip to the G-League and a trade to Memphis, Jackson has started to be effective again. This past season for the Grizzlies, he averaged 18.7 PPG, 6.2 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.7 steals, and 0.9 blocks per 36 minutes. He's never going to be Kawhi Leonard as a shooter, but there are ways he can be effective offensively. He converted 78.0% of his field goals inside (0-3 feet), showing how improved strength and bulk may aid his game. He also shot 34.8% on corner threes -- still below-average, but better than before.
So where do we go from here? What can Josh Jackson become? It's still a mystery. If he doesn't get his act and his shooting arc together, he may fall out of the league. However, if he continue to work on his craft without any problems behind the scenes, he can become a good prospect again. After all, this is a kid who's still 23 (younger than rookie teammate Brandon Clarke.) Maybe it's too optimistic to think he can be the next Jimmy Butler, but maybe he can be a solid starter in the mold of a Will Barton. There's some natural risk here, but enough upside to make the investment and gamble in the right circumstance (and for the right price.)
possible fits
MEM. Jackson staying in Memphis is the most likely scenario. While the Grizzlies nearly made the playoffs, they're still a young team. Ja Morant is 20. Jaren Jackson in 20. Jackson can fit into their timeline. The only question here is whether they already have a similar (and better) player in house in Justise Winslow.
CLE. The Memphis Grizzlies are a good young team. The Cavs are a bad young team. They need to add some more talent, especially at the wing. In theory, Jackson would be a nice complement to their undersized bomber guards like Darius Garland and Collin Sexton.
CHA. The Hornets need to find a star, somehow, some way. It's a long shot that Josh Jackson becomes that star, but it's worth a shot. He's comparable to current forward Miles Bridges in terms of his worth/upside.
clearance rack
Marial Shayok, Philadelphia 76ers, 25 years old
NBA general managers have a lot in common with Chris D'Elia: they like 'em young! They tend to dismiss college veterans as "over-aged" and salivate over teenagers instead. And to be fair, there's some logic there. A 22 or 23-year-old rookie likely doesn't have as much upside as a 19 or 20 year old. At the same time, not every NBA players needs to ooze with Giannis Antetokounmpo upside. Sometimes, you set the bar lower; you're just looking for a serviceable role player.
To my eye, Philadelphia's Marial Shayok is trending in that direction. He spent 5 years at college (gross!) -- playing 3 years at Virginia before transferring to Iowa State. That last season at ISU, Shayok looked solid -- averaging 18.7 points per game with great shooting splits (50-39-88). The 6'6" wing also sports a 7'0" wingspan, which naturally makes you consider him as a potential 3+D prospect.
Still, the "age" issue prevented Shayok from going high -- landing at pick # 54 last season and earning only a two-way deal. Down in the G-League, he's played well. This past season, he averaged 27-7-5 per 36 minutes and put up good shooting splits again (46-36-89). He's a good offensive player who can help get you buckets now and then. To be fair, there are some legitimate negatives here. He's a below-average athlete by NBA standards, a problem that leaves him a step slower than you'd like on D. Still, as long as he can become passable on that end, then he can become playable. As he develops, he may work his way into a rotation somewhere.
Given their depth issues, the Sixers should keep Shayok around and hope he can contribute. However, there's no guarantee that they'll give him a full contract. The team will be in "win now" mode, and Doc Rivers hasn't always been patient with young players in the past. If they decide to cast Shayok aside and fill out the roster with old vets instead, their loss may be another team's gain.
Hollis Thompson, unsigned, 28 years old
If Marial Shayok can develop into a decent 3+D player, then he's going to be a rich man. The NBA craves those plug and play wings, especially if they have decent size for the position. In Washington, SF Otto Porter Jr. parlayed a 13.4 PPG season into a full max (4 years, $107M). In Portland, Allen Crabbe started 8/81 games, averaged 10.3 points per game, and promptly got paid 4 years, $75M.
Given that rabid thirst for 3+D players, it's strange when one slips through the cracks.
Hollis Thompson may be scratching his head over that as well. In fact, he was teammates with Otto Porter Jr. back at Georgetown. At the time, they were both lanky 6'8" small forwards who projected as potential 3+D players. Thompson was actually further along as a shooter at the time, hitting 44% of his threes in college, and then coming out of the gates with 40% and 40% in his first two seasons in the NBA.
Unfortunately for Thompson, timing wasn't on his side. He had his worst season in 2016-17, right at the end of his initial contract. Ever since then, he's struggled to latch onto NBA rosters. He's had several stints in the G-League, and played in Greece and Germany.
I'm not suggesting that Thompson is a diamond in the rough who is actually as good as Porter. He may not be as good as Crabbe (who is also a cheap free agent now.) Thompson is limited offensively, and his lack of strength hurts him on defense. Still, a player with Thompson's skill set should be on an NBA roster somewhere, even if it's as an 11th or 12th man. From what I understand, Thompson is also a good worker and a good teammate, making him an even better addition to the locker room.
previous entries
PG, SG
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Offseason Blueprint: the Miami Heat have their hands full right now, so we'll take a look ahead to their offseason for them

The Miami Heat are locked in a tough battle with the L.A. Lakers right now, and they need every ounce of focus to pull out of this 3-1 hole. They can’t even think about the offseason right now.
But we can. In order to lighten their load, we wanted to look ahead with the penultimate edition of the OFFSEASON BLUEPRINT series. In each entry, we preview some big decisions and make some recommendations for plans of attack along the way.
step one: don't tinker with the formula
After Jimmy Butler signed with the Miami Heat, fans and pundits expected them to be pretty good. Their oveunder in Vegas extended as high as 43.5 wins. Most predicted that they would return to the playoffs after missing out in 3 of the previous 5 seasons. Some even thought they could be competitive in a R1 series. Turns out, the Miami Heat were much better than we all expected, as they roared past Milwaukee and Boston on their way to the NBA Finals.
Much has been made about how Jimmy Butler is a great fit for the Miami culture. He's tough and rugged. He's well conditioned. He's a "dog." All that is true. However, what's underplayed is how great of a fit Jimmy Butler is for Miami's particular roster.
Butler isn't a very good shooter from deep (down to 24% from three this year), but he excels offensively when he's able to attack the basket. If you surround him with shooters, he becomes a handful. He can draw contact and get to the line -- where he shot 83% on 9.1 free throw attempts per game. He can also utilize his passing ability; this year he averaged 6.0 assists per game.
This roster fits like a glove around Butler's skill set. The team has shooters all over the court, from Duncan Robinson to Tyler Herro to even their stretch big reserves like Kelly Olynyk and Meyers Leonard. When your two best players (Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo) aren't great shooters, that spacing becomes so crucial. The Miami Heat realized that, adding the talent that fit them, and subtracting the talent that did not (like the higher-usage Justise Winslow.)
Going forward, the Miami Heat need to keep that formula in mind. They're going to continue to try and improve, but they don't need to reinvent the wheel here. Adding another player who's going to take the ball out of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo's hands may be a mistake, especially if that player isn't a great shooter themselves.
step two: bring (some of) the band back together
Everything clicked for the Miami Heat in the bubble, but free agency will test that newfound chemistry. They have several notable free agents, including Goran Dragic and Jae Crowder. Role players like Derrick Jones Jr., Meyers Leonard, and Solomon Hill will also be free agents. In theory, Kelly Olynyk could be as well, but I'd expect him to pick up his $13.6M player option.
Goran Dragic represents a difficult decision. At age 34, he's still a very good player. He can slash and attack, but he can also be effective from deep (37% this year, 36% career.) He thrived as a Sixth Man this year in the regular season, and showed he can still be a viable starter in the playoffs. While he's not a great defender, his 6'3" size helps him hang on that end.
From Miami's perspective, they need to figure out how "replaceable" Dragic would be. With Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo handling the ball so often (combined, those two averaged 11.1 assists), the team doesn't need a traditional playmaking PG. Could they get away with starting scorers like Tyler Herro or Kendrick Nunn? Probably. That depth at guard puts Miami in a position of strength when negotiating Dragic's contract. If he wants to return next year on a short-term deal (1 year, $12M?) then it's doable. If he demands a larger role or a longer deal, then maybe you roll the dice with your younger players instead.
The team has less leverage when it comes to Jae Crowder. Crowder had been struggling over the last few seasons as a SF, but he thrived when switched over to a stretch PF here in Miami. Not only did that help him on defense, but it helped him find some more shooting space on offense as well. He hit 44.5% of his threes in the regular season for Miami. He also matches up well with some of the bigger forwards in the league on the defensive end. Again, no one's going to confuse him with a "stopper," but no one's going to make a point to exploit him either.
Every team is looking for players like Crowder -- a supply and demand problem that will become Miami's problem soon enough. Frankly, he's going to get overpaid. He caught fire at the right time and saw his national profile skyrocket with a strong playoff run. There's a fairly sizable chance that Crowder's shooting will sink down to Earth, and his defense will decline as the years catch up with him (now at age 30.)
Miami will probably need to re-sign Crowder, but they should try their best to keep the deal within reason. Not only will that keep their own cap hit down, but it will also keep him as a tradeable asset going forward.
step three: don't settle for second best
When the Miami Heat traded for Andre Iguodala, I didn't think much of it. Iguodala was probably too old and rusty to be much impact this season. Meh. Whatever. When they extended Iguodala to a big contract ($15M + $15M team option), my eyebrows raised in disbelief. WTF? On face value, a 37-year-old Iguodala is worth half that salary, if that.
Quickly, my skepticism turned into suspicion. Iguodala's $15M salary doesn't make a lot of sense... aside from it being $15M in salary. Suddenly, the Miami Heat have a mid-sized contract to float in trade packages. If you factor in Olynyk's $13.5M, then suddenly the team can match contracts anywhere in the range of $15M-$30M.
Of course, other teams aren't going to trade for empty salary because they want to help Miami win a title or because Pat Riley helped them bury a dead hooker a few years back. They need some motivation or asset in return. R1 picks may be enough. Tyler Herro would be more than enough.
Barring a Herro trade, Miami would be looking at "distressed assets" in return. We may need to focus on teams that are nearing a divorce with their current player. Among the biggest names that fit that bill would be Indiana SG Victor Oladipo ($22M contract.) The fit with Oladipo is better on the defensive end than on offense, where he plays a similar attacking role to Jimmy Butler. Still, if Miami can get him for a modest return, it's worth a conversation. I'm not sure Miami can put enough assets together to snag Jrue Holiday ($26M + $27M), but it's worth a call as well. If the team doesn't re-sign Dragic, Holiday could slide right in and play PG-SG for them.
Lesser players to mention: Chicago SF Otto Porter would make a good replacement for Jae Crowder. Porter's overpaid ($28M option) but is on an expiring deal so he couldn't hurt you too badly. I'd also consider making a call to Brooklyn about Taurean Prince ($12M + $13M). Prince had a bad year, but he has solid size for the wing and could play some SF and PF. You may prefer Iguodala to Prince in a clutch playoff situation, but the difference in age (36 to 26) is hard to ignore.
No doubt, the biggest name (and biggest contract) we should mention is Chris Paul ($41M + $44M), since he's been linked to the team in the past. It's hard to see the math working out here for me personally, but Pat Riley has more tricks up his sleeve than I do.
step four: stay flexible for the future
One reason that I'd be reluctant to commit huge money to someone like Chris Paul is because I'd like Miami to maintain their cap flexibility going forward. Prior to free agency, they have $80M committed on the books this upcoming season, but only $43M the following year.
To be honest, free agency isn't a great gameplan for about 80% of the franchises in the NBA. Superstars aren't flocking to small markets, or cold markets, or bad rosters and shoddy organizations. Miami is the exception to all those rules. They've hit a grand slam in free agency before, and they could theoretically do the same again. Allegedly they're going to be players in the potential Giannis Antetokounmpo sweepstakes, and they're going to be players in the sweepstakes for every star free agent before and after. It's an appealing situation, an appealing roster, and a prestigious coaching staff and front office.
For Miami, that target year of 2021 is crucial. Not only is that the year that Giannis' contract expires, but it's also the time when they'll have to pony up for an extension for Bam Adebayo. If they can grab a star before they sign on the dotted line for Adebayo, then they can vault into the title conversation for the next several years to follow. Giannis is going to be the big prize of the summer, but other stars slated for Free Agency 2021 include Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and current Finals opponents LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
The fact that Miami can shoot for the stars is another reason they have to be careful about their current offseason. If you overpay Goran Dragic or Jae Crowder, you not only hurt your cap space going forward but you also lock yourself into contracts that may be hard to trade. Miami signed off on quite a few of those in the past (Dion Waiters, James Johnson, etc), and somehow Pat Riley managed to be Harry Houdini and escape from them. As great as he may be, he should avoid trying that type of risk again.
previous offseason blueprints
ATL, BKN, BOS, CHA, CHI, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, HOU, IND, GS, LAC, MEM, MIL, MIN, NO, NYK, OKC, ORL, PHX, POR, SA, SAC, TOR, UTA, WAS
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The Daily Run-Down, Jan 8th Edition

Hey again, I have decided to name this piece the Daily Run-Down, extremely busy slate last night, so lets get into it:
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Quick Hitters
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Rookie Report
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Stud of the Night: Caris Durant (43 points, 5 boards, 6 assists, 15/23 shooting, 35 minutes)
Dud of the Night: Russell Westbrook (12 points, 4 boards, 8 assists,4/16 shooting, 33 minutes, 7 TOs)
Rook of the Night: Lamelo Ball (12 points, 10 boards, 9 assists, 4/11 shooting, 25 minutes)
Quote of the Night: "We can't guard a parked car" - Bradley Beal on the Wizards defense
Bonus Quote: "Long arms. He has Kawhi-type hands that I noticed out on the floor so I knew I couldn't play with the ball much. You could tell he's laser sharp on just trying to get better...Chicago has a good one" - Lebron James on rookie Patrick Williams
Link to Twitter: https://twitter.com/FantsyPowrHouse
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Offseason Blueprint: the Oklahoma City Thunder fought off a rebuild for another year, but a new era will be necessary eventually

The NBA Finals are starting to heat up, but there are now 28 teams sitting at home with nothing to do but twiddle their thumbs and wait for next season to start.
For their sake, we wanted to look ahead with the next edition of the OFFSEASON BLUEPRINT series. In each, we'll preview some big decisions and make some recommendations for plans of attack along the way. Today, we're looking at the Oklahoma City Thunder.
step one: back it up but don't blow it up
By all accounts, the Oklahoma City Thunder blew it up. They traded Russell Westbrook, they traded Paul George. BOOM goes the dynamite. The ember and ashes scattered all over the wreckage, signaling the end of an era of playoff contention.
However, the team didn't get the memo. Chris Paul and company emerged from the flames, walking tall and proud and unscathed. Their 44-28 record was actually better than the prior season (with Westbrook and MVP candidate George). While they didn't win in the playoffs, they gave the Houston Rockets all they could handle in a tough seven-game series.
If the Thunder wanted to run it back, they could be a good team again. But to what end...? Another R1 loss? It's hard to envision them being the favorite in a first-round series out West, which should be as strong as ever.
To be clear, making the playoffs and losing in R1 isn't an awful fate. If you're a small market team like OKC, it's a reasonable goal and a lifeline for your franchise. Maybe Sam Presti and the team want to keep chugging along as long as possible and use their new draft picks to supplement the team.
Moreover, blowing it up (for real this time) isn't going to be terribly easy. Chris Paul still has a massive contract ($41M + $44M player option.) Steven Adams is still on the books for another year at $27.5M. Dennis Schroeder is on the books for $15.5M. If your goal is to bottom out, it could be hard to scramble and find appropriate trades for them all.
Still, taking a step back feels like the most reasonable plan. Chris Paul has rehabbed his reputation and trade value and may actually be on the positive side of the asset ledger now. If you trade him, you also allow more of an opportunity for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to slide back to a PG-SG role. According to basketball-reference, SGA only played 6% of his minutes at PG this year. He's capable of playing "up" as a SG or SF, but you'd be taking away the size advantage that represents one of his better virtues as a guard. If OKC is going to be a good team in 2022 and 2023 and beyond, Gilgeous-Alexander will likely be playing a lead guard role.
Even though CP3 looked good this year, it's never easy to trade someone with a $40M contract. The trade partners may be limited. Allegedly, the New York Knicks are considering it (for whatever reason.) Philadelphia and Milwaukee would make more sense as "win now" teams. Who knows -- maybe a team like Miami or Orlando decides they need Paul to help push them to another level. In any circumstance, I'd expect the trade return to be modest. You may get a mid to late R1 pick -- you may get nothing at all. But the decision to trade CP3 or not should have more to do with finding a direction for the franchise than haggling for prices.
step two: embrace the youth movement and prep for the long haul
If the plan is to take a step back (which Sam Presti has not signed off on yet, by the by), then the trickle down effect could be felt across the roster.
If the team isn't pushing strong for the playoffs next year, then re-signing FA Danilo Gallinari doesn't make much sense. He's played well enough over the last two years to justify close to $20M a season in a short-term deal. The Thunder can utilize that to potentially swing a "sign and trade" for him. Teams like Portland would love to have a sweet-shooting forward like that on their team. Presumably, OKC can get an additional R1 pick if they trade Gallo and take on a bad contract in return.
Losing Gallo would also open the door for more minutes for current-rookie Darius Bazley. On paper, Bazley struggled as much as you could expect from an inexperienced 19 year old (who just turned 20 in June.) Still, the "eye test" suggests an athletic kid with good stretch potential. If the Thunder push their timeline back, then developing Bazley will become more of a priority for them.
As long as we're taking a step back (call it peeling off layers as opposed to a total teardown), then the Thunder can float offers for Dennis Schroder and Steven Adams as well. However, trading them isn't mandatory. They're both 27 years old, which is a stark difference from Chris Paul (35) and Gallinari (32).
Even if we lose some veterans, we can see the outline of a team that makes sense here. You'd have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as a focal point combo guard. You'd have People's Champ Lu Dort as your go-to defender. You'd have Darius Bazley working his way into a potential starting role down the road. Still, this feels more like a supporting cast than a perpetual playoff team. OKC may be one signature star away from completing this next phase.
It'll be hard for Oklahoma City to draw in that future franchise player in free agency, and it'll be hard for them to do with their draft pick this year ( # 25). Fortunately, they're going to have a lot of swings at the plate in the years to come. They own their own picks after this year, as well as a boatload of future R1 picks via the Westbrook and George trades.
Overall, this is a team that needs to be thinking with a long-term approach. Even if they want to roll it back and try to make the playoffs this next season, they'll need to start the next era eventually.
step three: get back out on the dating market and get re-married
The uncertainty about the future (and perhaps the inevitability of the rebuild) helped spur coach Billy Donovan to travel elsewhere. In his place, the team will need to find a coach who has the patience and skill set for a long-term plan.
We haven't heard much about the Oklahoma City coaching search, which makes sense since they are not likely to spend a ton to find a big name. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if they default to someone like current assistant Mo Cheeks as a cheap placeholder. If the team decides to keep the core together, an experienced coach like that makes some sense.
More likely, they're try to find a younger coach who can take the reins for the foreseeable future. There are a ton of quality prospects in that ilk. Among them: Ime Udoka (PHI), Stephen Silas (DAL), Wes Unseld Jr. (DEN), Nate Tibbetts (POR), Jay Larranaga (BOS), Chris Fleming (CHI), Darvin Ham (MIL), Nate Bjorkgren (TOR), Becky Hammon (SA), and Alex Jensen (UTA). Bigger names like Kenny Atkinson and Dave Joerger make some sense as well, although they'd be more expensive given their prior experience.
Given the supply and demand, the Thunder can take their time and be thorough in their search. They need to find someone who can be in lockstep with Presti going forward. In a sense, Presti is going to have to go on a bunch of speed dates and propose to someone at the end of the night. They want this marriage to last for the next 5+ years or more.
Without the benefit of being in the room for those interviews (or having any basketball experience at all), it seems like Ime Udoka would be at the top of the list. While he doesn't have head coaching experience yet, he's been knocking on that door for some time. He's built up a good resume, with experience as a player, as an assistant in San Antonio, and as an assistant for Team USA. He checks the box for a developmental coach, but also would have some credibility as a former player to connect with veterans like Chris Paul (if he stays put.)
step four: prepare for the future with more modern basketball as well
With Chris Paul taking the lead role, the Oklahoma City Thunder were a good team. They were also an old-fashioned team by the standards of their offensive shot distribution. They finished 27th (out of 30) in three-point attempts. It made sense for this team to take advantage of their midrange game when they had CP3 in tow, but that needs to change if they play without him in the future. Not hitting threes puts you at a natural disadvantage. It's no surprise that -- as talented as the team was -- they only finished 16th in offensive rating this year. They arguably outplayed Houston in the playoffs as well, but 3s are going to beat 2s in a larger sample.
Increasing your 3PA isn't going to be easy if the team loses Danilo Gallinari in free agency (or sign-and-trade). They don't have great shooters lined up waiting in the wings either.
Practically, there are a few steps that OKC can take to increase their three-point shooting. For one, they need to limit the amount of defensive stoppers they have in the rotation. Free agent Andre Roberson still has a lot of defensive potential, but he's never going to be a great offensive player. Now that you have Lu Dort locked up under a team-friendly contract, it doesn't make a world of sense to double dip with another defense-only player. If Roberson wants to re-sign for a very cheap deal, that's great. But realistically, his days with the Thunder may be over.
Similarly, SG Terrance Ferguson needs to step up his offense in order to merit extended minutes. He's a solid defender, but he's a 3+D player who hasn't been hitting threes reliably. Last season, he sagged to 29% beyond the arc. Ferguson is still a young player (age 22), but next season will be his 4th in the NBA. Unless we see signs that he's going to get notably better, then he may need to have a reduced role. Effectively, OKC needs to pit Ferguson and Dort against each other to see who justifies minutes. Playing both (and/or Andre Roberson) is going to make their offense tougher sledding.
Free agent center Nerlens Noel is a trickier proposition. On face value, he's another player with limited offense that won't help boost the team on that end. Still, the fleet-footed Noel has always been undervalued by the NBA, so the Thunder should keep him as long as he's at his typical bargain prices.
All in all, the Thunder will need to add more shooting and more offensive talent eventually. As nice of a story as their 2019-20 season turned out to be, it was more of a bridge to the future than a permanent fixture.
previous offseason blueprints
ATL, BKN, BOS, CHA, CHI, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, HOU, IND, GS, LAC, MEM, MIL, MIN, NYK, ORL, PHX, POR, SA, SAC, TOR, UTA, WAS
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