Full list of Super Bowl 54 prop bets from - Las Vegas Sun

Welcome to the week 14 Official NFL Power Rankings! With circus catches and beatdowns alongside great games, there was plenty to discuss even before a MNF Scorigami that might already be airing on ESPN classic. 32/32 Reporting

#	Team	Δ	Record	Comment
1.	Chiefs	--	12-1	The Dolphins gave the Chiefs all they could handle in the first quarter of Sunday's game, but the Chiefs once again proved that when they are focused, they are the most dangerous team in the NFL. Travis Kelce, the NFL's leading receiver currently, had another monster game showing why he's a future hall of famer. However, after having five 10+ point wins in the first eight weeks of the season, the Chiefs last five wins have all been won by one score. Will this trend ultimately matter come playoff time? It's hard to argue with results, as the Chiefs 12-1 record is the best record through 13 games in franchise history. The ultimate barometer for the Chiefs is this week as they travel to play the Saints, hopefully with Drew Brees. Many questions will be answered in this clash of two top five teams.
2.	Packers	+2	10-3	There always seems to be one Lions-Packer game a year that ends up being some kind of adventure. Rodgers and Adams were as good as ever but the Lions kept on lingering throughout the game. Mason "Silver Fox" Crosby nailed an insurance 58 yard field goal with 3:30 to play and made a touchdown-saving tackle on the immediate kickoff. Aside from Crosby, the special teams really leave a lot to be desired, especially after the hands team almost allowed a onside kick recovery (c'mon y'all I don't need Bostic flashbacks). Packers officially won the division game and are now the projected 1 seed, which is pretty neat ngl. Onto a Saturday game I guess?
3.	Bills	+2	10-3	For a team that was searching desperately in 2019 for a signature win, the 2020 Bills have found them everywhere they turn. This team has had one of the toughest schedules in the league, but except for a couple games they've shown up every time they've had to. This is the second-best team in the conference. The Bills bandwagons are circling now. Josh Allen's extending his baseball glove-sized hand. He says "get in nerds, we're goin' to the Super Bowl."
4.	Saints	-1	10-3	This loss = Hurts. Dennis Allen seemingly had no answers for the rookie QB and then Miles Sanders piled on as well. "All the things we didn't want to allow happen, happened in that game." This was Sean Payton's post-game assessment and it's fair. Taysom Hill had an acceptable statline but it hides how sloppy he looked on the field. The defense struggled with its assignment to contain Hurts and keep him from getting outside the pocket - a worrying sign considering the next QB on the schedule.
5.	Steelers	-3	11-2	The Steelers schedule has been insane. 6 days between NYG and DEN. 14 days between HOU and PHI. 10 days between JAX and BAL. But with that BAL game, the Steelers played them, WFT and BUF in 12 days. 3 games in 12 days. The team is out of LBs and OL. This has been a challenging season for everyone, but this is unprecedented. The Steelers have 8 days until CIN, then 6 days until IND. 10 out of 16 games played with an irregular schedule? You can argue the drops are kicking their ass, but this schedule has been brutal. No wonder they've lost 2 straight.
6.	Rams	--	9-4	Imagine only scoring 3 points in a game.
7.	Colts	+1	9-4	Kenny Moore is a player underrated by national media but massively valuable to the Colts. GM Chris Ballard made re-signing him a priority after his breakout 2018 season. Moore has been a reliable performer throughout his tenure as a Colt and added an exclamation point with his insane one-handed interception on Sunday.
8.	Titans	+1	9-4	Derrick Henry had his second 200+ yard 2 TD game against the Jaguars on Sunday. The performance made Henry the 7th player to rush for 1,500+ yards and 14+ TDs through 13 games.
9.	Seahawks	+1	9-4	Nothing cures ~~suicidal thoughts~~ losing like playing the Jets, baby. Sunday was never much of a game, as it was all Seahawks all day. Russell Wilson threw for 4 touchdowns, Jamal Adams broke the single season sack record for defensive backs, and Geno Smith got to play a full quarter against the team that drafted him. What a way to get over a bad loss to the Giants. Up next the Seahawks will take on their final NFC East opponent of the season; Football Team.
10.	Ravens	+2	8-5	This ranker is a brown man, writing about how Lamar Jackson lost 20 pounds dropping some brown, dropping a TD to Brown, to go ahead against the Browns. They go for two. So in response, K-hunt ties the game, 42-42. In response, the Llama sets up the GOAT to nail a 54-yarder, 16th game winner of his career! To say nothing else of the game -- 9 total fucking rushing touchdowns, tying a record held since two defunct teams played each other before anyone on reddit was born... and Jackson runs for a MNF QB record 124 yards -- but still gets all the clutch plays done with his arm, with this middling group of receivers. The even greater news amidst all this is that the schedule doesn't look so bad in the closing stretch, and inspired play like this past Monday from the offense will ease the burden of the Ravens' gradually depleting secondary. Best wishes to Trace McSorely who made an extremely commendable effort to set them up for Lamar's return.
11.	Browns	-4	9-4	Did you bet the over? The Browns and Ravens combined for 89 points in an absolute rollercoaster of a game. While they did not win, the Browns have shown they are contenders. With two games to go a real shot at the playoffs is on the table. The Browns will face the Giants in another prime time game.
12.	Buccaneers	-1	8-5	The Buccaneers pulled off a 26-14 win over the Vikings, bringing their playoff chances to 94%. Vikes kicker Dan Bailey channeled his inner Gary Anderson to win the Bucs' game ball on an 0/3 kicking performance with an additional missed XP. Rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. played a disruptive game against his dad's former team and is looking like he has the potential to be one of the league's next great safeties. With only interim coaches to close out the remaining three games of the season, the Bucs should have smooth sailing into the Wild Card round.
13.	Dolphins	--	8-5	There are no consolation prizes in the NFL, but a single score loss to the best team in the league while the backup waterboy is lining up in the slot is about as close to a one as you'll ever get. While he was able to pull off the win, even Patrick Mahomes couldn't keep this ball-hawking defense from getting a hold of the ball, often. And at some point, if people don't start talking about Xavien Howard in the DPOY conversation, he's just going to go intercept the damned award himself. Hopefully, the long, long list of injured Dolphins get well soon.
14.	Cardinals	+1	7-6	A monster day from Haason Reddick and the defense finally put the Cardinals back on the winning track. Breaking a franchise record with 5 sacks was one thing, but getting all the turnovers was huge. Hopefully the offense feeds off of it and has a good week in preparing for a big game with Philly that has huge playoff implications. It will take a complete team effort to beat Philly with Jalen Hurts starting fresh of a win against the Saints.
15.	Raiders	-1	7-6	The Raiders looked really bad against the Colts, just like they have for the better part of the last 6 weeks. Luckily Gruden finally made the call to fire Pauly G, something fans have been calling for for the past 2 seasons. Only time will tell if it's too little, too late. Every game from here on out is a must win if the Raiders want to make the playoffs.
16.	Washington FT	+3	6-7	Washington is finding ways to win instead of finding ways to lose. The offense was not able to score a TD so the defense went ahead and spotted them 14 points. Chase Young notches his first TD and continues to prove his worth as the 2nd overall pick as a game wrecker.
17.	Vikings	--	6-7	Dalvin Cook became the first back to rush for over 100 yards against the Bucs in over 20 games, but the Vikings were unable to convert long drives into points as Dan Bailey went 0/4 on field goals and extra points. Couple that with some questionable officiating, the Vikings' banged up front seven generating zero pressure on Tom Brady and plenty of self-inflicted wounds and it all adds up to a real tough loss that knocks the Vikings down from wild card favorites to playoff long shots.
18.	Bears	+5	6-7	The Bears finally snapped their six-game losing streak by rolling over the Texans without much difficulty. Trubisky attempted one throw longer than 20 yards.
19.	Patriots	-3	6-7	Los Angeles, is a land of contrasts - In a span of four days the Patriots' hopes for a postseason were revived and then unceremoniously squashed. Run Defense, Offensive Line, Cam and the Receivers, There just are too many holes to cover up with week to week coaching, this team needs some reworking over the offseason. The Pats end the season with the division as always, lets hope to fuck someone’s season or seeding up. And also the Jets.
20.	49ers	-2	5-8	The 49ers defense did their job, holding the Washington offense to a total of 9 points, but the offense had two takeaways brought back for touchdowns and could not recover. The team looks to right the ship this week against the Cowboys.
21.	Broncos	+5	5-8	Drew Lock put up the third-highest passer rating in team history — behind a couple guys you may know. In the battle of 4-8's, the Broncos somehow managed to not blow a sizeable fourth-quarter lead and emerge victorious. Winning the game but losing The Hunt for a Better Draft Pick. Will the team remain in purgatory? Stay tuned.
22.	Giants	-2	5-8	It’s a real joy to watch the rest of the teams in the up-for-grabs NFC East secure wins, with one being against a top-5 team, all while watching your team play so poorly they start setting franchise records. At least we can say the hype was fun while it lasted, right?
23.	Falcons	-1	4-9	Outplayed by a team whose most impressive win is a tossup between the Bengals, Jaguars, and Jets? Check. Outcoached by special teams ace Anthony Lynn? Check. Ten point lead blown, two interceptions with under five minutes left, double check. Good thing age is just a number for the 32nd youngest team in the league.
24.	Panthers	-3	4-9	I'm not sure where the Panthers go from here. Coach Rhule has said that he isn't going to do the team and fans a disservice by beginning to evaluate players, which means that we're going to see more of Teddy Bridgewater (who is 0-7 in one score games this season) crumble at the end of the game. Playing at Lambeau in primetime in December is one of the hardest things a team can do, and it's not going to be an easy test for the Panthers, who so far have shown that they can't win close games, nor can they defend the pass (23rd in passing defense). It's going to be tough sledding, but hopefully Jeremy Chinn can continue his torrid pace and run his way into DROY.
25.	Eagles	+3	4-8-1	Jalen Hurts delivered the spark the Eagles needed to upset the Saints and spread 'quarterback controversy' all over the city of brotherly love. While the season remains a disappointment, the dual running threat of Hurts and Sanders could be interesting to watch going forward, and the NFC Least remains wide-open with 2 divisional games left on the 2020 menu.
26.	Lions	-1	5-8	Even with a loss, Interim HC Darrell Bevell showed that his Lions are here to compete. This game was never out of hands, and the Lions kept it close the entire time. There are still plenty of woes on Defense, but the Offense continued to ball out as expected. With two TD's coming from the run game (Swift and Kerryon), there is already something to look forward to next year. Lately the team has been able to trust the run on short yardage and redzone carries and it has helped the team with consistency in the red zone. Unfortunately, Aaron Rodgers is a QB that can carve up a weak secondary... so that didn't go great. There's around a 1% chance of the Lions getting a playoff spot, not unheard of, but it'll be tough if Stafford's injury progresses and we lose him for the season. #DefendTheDen
27.	Chargers	--	4-9	First of all, props to Falcons Twitter for this gem before the game, and it played out exactly as expected. Both teams did their best to try giving it away at the end, but the Chargers ended up on the winning side this time around. The Chargers had their hiccups again but there were improvements across the board; Justin Herbert's 81.8% completion percentage is his highest of the season, the defense came away with 3 INTs, and special teams probably had their best day. The Chargers get a short week before a Thursday Night tilt in Las Vegas.
28.	Texans	-4	4-9	The Texans are lucky that Paxton is the Texas AG, otherwise they would have had the biggest blowout loss in the state this past week.
29.	Cowboys	--	4-9	The Red Rifle won his revenge game, the defense forced multiple turnovers, and the Bengals were held to 3.4 yards per carry. All that, and the Cowboys still come out of the week with a top 5 draft pick. Honestly, Sunday couldn't have gone better. Now, the only question is whether this was the team turning the corner and the beginning of a strong finish to the season, or this was just a perfect moment of the Cowboys finding a shittier team with serious injuries issues and just doing what should happen in that scenario.
30.	Bengals	--	2-10-1	Giovani Bernard hadn't fumbled since 2013 before his 1st quarter fumble on Sunday. So what does he get for his troubles? A spot on the bench thanks to Zac Taylor. Giovani was one of the only veterans who spoke out in behalf of Taylor and the current coaches when multiple articles were released with "sources" saying that Taylor had lost the locker room last month. You have to question the benching for multiple reasons as the directionless Bengals continue to flounder to blowout losses. Just another reason why this should be Zac Taylor's last season as head coach in Cincinnati.
31.	Jaguars	--	1-12	This one felt more as expected. Perhaps it was in former GM Dave Caldwell's plans— no, wait, hear me out. Adjusting tinfoil hat; Based on the moves taken this offseason to seemingly dump talent from the Jaguars in attempt to amass more draft picks, perhaps the former front office of the Jaguars were banking on this season not being played, due to pandemic reasons. Sure, this may sound farfetched, but I'd like to hear a more reasonable explanation for fielding such a disaster as this team, this season.
32.	Jets	--	0-13	The Jets have now scored on 7 consecutive opening drives, the longest streak in the NFL. After climbing to an early 3-0 lead, I watched Peter Sawkins make an excellent cranachan custard slice on The Great British Bake Off.

Normally I post in the POTD threads bets I make on MLB underdogs or some standard NFL ATS or O/U bets. However, in the derivatives/ancillary markets, prop bets are known to be a soft spot in the armor of a sportsbook. A high hold, low limits, and inconsistent offerings have historically kept large bettors on the sidelines, and to be fully transparent, this is one of my first forays into seriously betting into the prop market.
BUT, after witnessing record scoring in the NFL this season, I decided to dig into yardage totals. What I found was a surprisingly inefficient props market that 1) shades against traditional bettor biases, 2) fails to capture injury and substitution (benching) risk, 3) doesn't account for the skew in the distribution of passing yards, and 4) misses the changing relationship between points and yards. Let's walk through these one-by-one.
1) BETTOR BIASES: It's commonly understood that the majority of recreational bettors enjoy betting overs. Life is too short to bet the under. As a result, sportsbooks often shade their lines higher for props to increase their profits on Over bets. This season, the average team passing yards per game is 264.5. The average line at DraftKings for all of the QB passing yardage props this week is 264.8. This might not seem like a big difference, but consider that the Seattle Seahawks (300.4 passing yards per game), Los Angeles Chargers (280.6), Las Vegas Raiders (288.4), and New Orleans Saints (273.8) are all on bye.
2) TOTAL YARDS VS STARTER YARDS : We are comparing team passing yards to the lines set by the sportsbook above. However, the prop wagers are for specific players, not the team as a whole. Because of injuries, trick/gadget plays, and in-game benchings (sorry Mitch Trubisky), aggregate team totals exceed the passing yards of the starting quarterback. The average passing yards for a starting quarterback this season is 256.5 yards.
3) DISTRIBUTION (AVERAGE VS MEDIAN) : Using the average passing yards for starting quarterbacks does not reflect the specific bet we are considering. The bet is binary - over or under - and thus it doesn't really matter if you win by 1 yard or 100 yards for the purposes of grading the bet. The more appropriate metric we should look at is median passing yards, which is the midpoint of the entire distribution of outcomes, where half of the outcomes are above the target and half are below. Due to an upward skew in the distribution of passing yards, the average generally exceeds the median, because it is more likely that a starting QB throws for 500 yards than 0 yards (and generally there is a lower bound of zero). The median passing yards for starting quarterbacks this season is 252 yards.

4) MORE SCORING = MORE PASSING YARDS? IT'S COMPLICATED: There has been plenty of discussion of the increase in scoring this season. However, much of this increase can be attributed to changes in officiating. As a result, the relationship between passing yards and points is changing. Over the past 10 seasons, the ratio of yards to points has averaged 16.0 with a standard deviation of 0.2 (high of 16.3 in 2011, low of 15.6 in 2013). So far in 2020: 14.9. The implications are that passing yards are not increasing proportionately with points. It's hard to tell if this is the new norm, but for the time being, it seems like a pretty safe bet that yards will lag scoring.
All of these small details add up to a big edge in betting the under on QB passing yardage prop bets. Going forward, I will almost exclusively target unders.
Today, I'm looking at:
BENGALS AT COLTS:JOE BURROW UNDER 250.5 PASSING YARDS (-112 or better)
RAVENS AT EAGLES:CARSON WENTZ UNDER 239.5 PASSING YARDS (-112 or better)
LIONS AT JAGUARS:GARDNER MINSHEW UNDER 287.5 PASSING YARDS (-112 or better)
BRONCOS AT PATRIOTS:DREW LOCK UNDER 220.5 PASSING YARDS (-112 or better)
TEXANS AT TITANS:DESHAUN WATSON UNDER 289.5 PASSING YARDS (-112 or better)
BET SIZES: approximately 2% of bankroll, with the exception of Deshaun Watson at 1.5%.
I send a newsletter you can check out that has all my bets that I send before games. Later this evening I'll post a couple more prop bets for the MNF games.
If you're getting slightly different pricing from your book, I estimate the push probability of one passing yard to be approximately 0.6%, which equates to about 2.5 cents per passing yard. I'll create some pricing tables that will make it easier to compare different prices across various books later this week.
Edit: MNF Unders:
CHIEFS AT BILLS: JOSH ALLEN UNDER 290.5 PASSING YARDS (-112 or better)
CARDINALS AT COWBOYS: KYLER MURRAY UNDER 289.5 PASSING YARDS (-112 or better)

What’s up party people and non-party people it’s that time for the Team Rise or Fall DraftKings Milly Maker Report. If this is your first time joining the report, that’s your mistake but welcome anyway. The purpose of the report is to find trends and strategies that we can apply to the Milly Maker and tournaments in general. There are links to every post in the series at the bottom of this post.
One other thing real quick: The NBA season is here! If you’ve enjoyed the success of Team Rise or Fall through the MLB and NFL seasons get ready for more $$$. If you haven’t signed up with us yet now is the time. Make sure to check out our DraftKings and Fanduel NBA Strategy Guide to get you ready for the season.
All of the information below comes via the Fantasy Cruncher Pro Lineup Study feature. It allows you to look back at years worth of information. Lineup Study is a really valuable tool and I wouldn’t be able to write a Milly Maker report without its help.
Now, on to the Milly Maker Report!

📷

Check out ROF Bets for Player Props, Parlays, and Monkey Knife Fight Picks!

Using Vegas Odds to Win the Milly Maker

One of the most consistent trends I found from analyzing two years’ worth of Milly Makers is that 76% of the milly winning quarterbacks came from games within the top five for implied totals on the slate. Yes, it makes sense that you want guys from high scoring games, but it’s not always guys from the game with the highest implied total.
So as life goes of course Week 13 featured a quarterback outside of the top five but weeks 14 and 15 held to the trend. For the season 12 out of 15 weeks (80%) have seen a quarterback from within the top five for implied totals on the slate take down a Milly Maker. It’s honestly the easiest place to start when building your lineups.

Targeting Offenses and Defenses to Win the Milly Maker

I’m recycling this one more time because I think it’s super important: Analyzing 34 slates over 2018 and 2019 showed there were 10 different quarterbacks that won the Milly Maker in the 2018 NFL regular season and 14 different quarterbacks in the 2019 regular season. What I’m trying to hammer home is that you don’t have to use every QB on the slate. And in fact, you can see less than half of the quarterbacks win a Milly Maker in a given season.
So how’s 2020 going? In the first half of the 2020 season... Read the rest for FREE here: https://teamriseorfall.com/2020/12/23/draftkings-milly-maker-report-weeks-13-15/

MLB Stacks & Plays from CheatSheetPros! << Up arrow if you like the content! >>
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
MLB Blitz continues headed into the holiday week! Yesterday we had Shane Bieber who went 5.0 innings with 10 Ks, Glasnow who went 5.1 with 3 ER but saved the day with 9 Ks and then our punt Antone who was cheap and went 5.0 with 1 ER and 6 Ks. We stacked White Sox (8 runs) and Tigers (10 runs) in our article. I’ve been working hard on the NFL CheatSheet for 2020 and excited to mix in some NFL breakdowns this year!
PITCHERS I AM LOOKING AT:
MAX SCHERZER – I could see a full “fade” here on this short slate if you want to be different for GPP. His last 3 starts he has put up 14, 34 and 7 DK points but his BABIP is .365 so he is going to start getting a little more luck on his side. He has a 3.29 xFIP and allowing a .260 average. Priced at 10,400 on DK there is some risk here today with his recent form but with no many options you could go either way.
ZAC GALLEN – Now we come down to 9200 for Gallen who has a tough matchup vs. this SFG team that is 6th in their last 10 game power rankings and rank top 5 in our all team stats over the last 14 days. He has been stellar this year and coming into the start in great form. He has put up 28, 24, 19, 27 and 22 DK points in his last 5 starts. His ERA is 1.80 but his xFIP indicates it should be closer to 3.67 which is still solid. Only allowing a .182 batting average.
DINELSON LAMET – We get a cheap price tag on Lamet today at only 8800 on DK. His last two starts he was priced at 9900 and 9800. Lamet has a solid K9 ratio at 11.5 this year and was 12.9 last year. He is facing a COL team that is striking out a whopping 26% of the time over the last 14 days and he is a -180 favorite. Padres should win this game and Lamet should get the win which is +4 points. Lamet has been sliding a little as he put up 37.8 DK points, then fell down to 25 and 22 and then 12 and 17 on his last two starts. He has upside with his 37.8 DK points going 6.2 innings, 1 ER and 11Ks for a high this year.
ZACH PLESAC – Only 7600 today on DK and has a soft matchup vs. KC. Plesac has put up 25, 28, 19 and 38 DK points in his last 4 starts and those combined for 27.0 innings, 4 ERs and 30 strikeouts. He just faced KC in his last start in KC and went 6.0 innings, 1 ER and 6 strikeouts. CLE is a heavy favorite today and has the 3rd best bullpen behind him so he should lock down the win today. Love the matchup and price tag!
BRAD KELLER – If you want to pivot off Plesac or even match up with him you can use Brad Keller at only 6700. Keller has a 1.93 ERA this year and allowing a .177 batting average. There are some red flags though as he has an xFIP of 4.27 with a BABIP of only .230. I do like his BVP history vs. CLE as he has faced this team for 56 Abs and only allowing a .161 batting average with a 27% strikeout rate. GPP only.
KEVIN GAUSMAN – Gausman is the cheapest pitcher on the slate today at only 6100! He has put up 19, 18, 24, 22, 14 and 16 DK points over his last 6 starts and that is great value on his price tag of 6.1k. I mean across the last 4 in terms of X value you are roughly looking at 3x, 3x, 4x and 4x. Scherzer isn’t likely to push 4x today, I mean that would be 42+ DK points and he has only broke 30 DK points twice this entire season. Gausman has a good matchup vs. ARI who ranks 25th in the last 10 game power rankings and they fall into our “Low/Mid” range for fantasy points. He has faced them for 75 Abs and allowing a .240 batting average and a 27% strikeout rate. 5 of the projected starting lineup hitters are batting below .205. You can’t ask for a better matchup for a punt pitcher if you want to stack up some studs today!

STACKS TO CONSIDER:
SAN DIEGO PADRES VS. KYLE FREELAND (27TH BULLPEN) – Love this Padres who rank #1 in our last 10 game power rankings and they are 1st in team batting average, 3rd in runs per game and 3rd in OBP+ISO over the last 14 days. Stack is expensive with 4700-5000 average per player if you want all the studs in the lineup. Kyle Freeland is allowing a .295 batting average with an ERA over 4.00 this year. No everyone is going to argue that it includes Coors home starts so let’s look at the entire year last year on the road. He shows up with a 4.61 ERA and allowing a high 1.43 whip and .259 batting average through 56.2 innings. His last two starts he has given up 8 ER and only lasted a combined 6.1 innings with 19 hits. Vegas has the Padres projected at 4.9 runs and our model has them at 5.6 runs so we like the stack.
HOUSTON ASTROS VS. FRANKIE MONTAS (2ND BULLPEN) – Montas is a great pitcher and last year had a 2.63 ERA and allowing a low .230 batting average and has a great bullpen behind him. Vegas has Houston projected at only 4.2 runs and we have them at 5.1 so this could be a sneaky stack that is cheap! Montas has had two rough starts in a row. He gave up 4 ER in only 4.2 vs. LAA and then he gave up 9 ER in only 1.2 innings @ ARI. Houston is 4280 per player for the top 5 man graded stack. Springer, Reddick, Gurriel and Correa all over 10+ Abs off Montas and batting over .300.

SPORTS BETTING PICKS:
On Saturday we posted some picks with a play on Nationals +250 parlayed with over 9.5 and it easily covered with Nationals winning 10-4 for a +635 payout! Yesterday we added in 5 games that you could bet, parlay or play the run line and they ALL WON going 4-0 and we gave you two pitcher props taking the Bieber OVER and Glasnow OVER in strikeouts and they both easily covered for another 2 WINS! When I post games I let you know which sides I like and why but you have to decide the risk/reward vs parlaying them or betting them outright. I typically don’t straight bet games that are -200 or higher.
ATLANTA BRAVES -200 over MIAMI – Ian Anderson has been stellar this year for ATL with a 2.25 ERA and allowing a low .163 batting average. In his 2 starts he has went a combined 12.0 innings with 3 RS and 14 strikeouts. Now facing a MIA team that is striking out a whopping 27% of the time over the last 14 days and rank 21st in runs per game. ATL ranks 5th in our last 10 game power rankings, 2nd in runs per game, 1st in OBP+ISO and they face Jose Urena coming off the IL. They have faced him for 101 team Abs and they are hitting .337 off him with a low 19% strikeout rate. Parlay the ATL moneyline or bet the run line.
SAN DIEGO PADRES -180 – Padres are #1 in our last 10 game power rankings on our MLB Cheatsheets and they get to face Kyle Freeland and the 27th ranked bullpen AND they are at home. Padres at home have a wRC+ that jumps from 107.6 to 138.2 and their OBP+ISO goes from .521 up to .619. Our custom model on our cheatsheet post a total projected for every game and we have this at 5.6 to 4.0 with Padres on top. Parlay the moneyline or hit the run line.
CLEVELAND -210 – Cleveland ranks 2nd in our last 10 game power rankings and facing the Royals who rank 29th. Our model has this game at 4.8 to 3.3. Both pitchers are solid in this matchup with Plesac and Keller but the bullpen is the difference with CLE ranking 3rd on the year and KC rankings 21st. KC is “Ice/Cold” in our team production ranks and Cleveland is “Good”. Not my favorite play straight up because KC is due for a big win but I like it parlayed.
HOUSTON +125 parlayed with OVER 9.0 (pays +330) – Oakland is a -135 favorite tonight with Montas on the mount and the 2nd ranked bullpen. However, Montas has given up 13 ER in his last two starts and Houston is starting to heat up. If Houston can get to Montas and tag him for 4-5 runs I like Houston winning as a dog AND if they win I think there is a strong likelihood this game also goes OVER the total of only 9.0 runs.
MY BETS:
Houston +125 + over 9.0 runs: 1 unit pays +3.30 units
San Diego Padres parlayed Atlanta Braves: 2 units pays +2.60 units
Padres + Braves + Cleveland: 1 units pays 2.5 units.
Mega Parlay Dart (these area always fun):
Padres/Braves/Cleveland/Houston/Houston over 9.0: 1 units pays +14 units.
Thanks for reading,
Haze

I am a firm believer in the Dallas offense as a whole, at any of the positions with fantasy relevance. I’m just wondering what would be consensus on where CD will be at the end of the year.
What’re your expectations on his line of 700 yards where Vegas has him at.
For some context the cowboys currently have the second most targets vacated from last year going into this season, mainly from Witten and Cobb (around 160)
here’s a linked article going more in depth

My first attempt at a mock draft. I used odds from prop bets in order to estimate what "Vegas" thinks will happen Day 1. According to Vegas the mostly likely outcome for the 1st Round of the NFL draft is 4 QB's, 6 Offensive Lineman, 6 Wide Receivers, 1 Running Back, 0 Tight Ends, 5 Cornerbacks, 1 Safety, 5 Defensive Lineman, and 4 Linebackers.
This is the result.
1) Cincinnati Bengal's select Joe Burrow QB-LSU
Clear favorite to be the overall #1 pick.
2) Washington Redskin's select Chase Young EDGE-OSU
Not as clear cut as the Joe Burrow pick, but still a heavy favorite to be selected 2nd overall by Washington.
3) TRADE Miami Dolphin's select Tua Tagovailoa QB-ALA
The Miami Dolphins are the odds on favorite to end up with Tua. This combined with the odds for Burrow, Young, Tua being the exact outcome of the first 3 picks, makes me think that Miami trades up for, and select's Tua.
4) New York Giant's select Jeffrey Okudah CB-OSU
The sportsbook really likes Okudah. They have the odds of him going #3 overall, as very similar to Tua. If the trade to Miami happens. Then expect the Giants to pick Okudah as the odds have him as the BPA.
5) TRADE Detroit Lions select Isaiah Simmons LB/S CLE
Isaiah Simmons is all over people's draft boards as his value to a defense is hard to quantify. "Vegas" has his most likely outcome as going before pick 6.
6) Las Angeles Charger's select Justin Herbert
The Chargers have the best odds to select draft Justin Herbert, and Herbert is mostly likely to be drafted after pick 5.
7) Carolina Panther's select Tristan Wirfs
Odds have him as the BPA. Though interestingly they have him as most likely selected after pick 7.5. Getting the BPA at a position that you can never have enough of seems like a no brainer for Carolina though so I see them "reaching" above what odds makers think.
8) Arizona Cardinal's select Melkhi Becton
Odds have him as the BPA. Though interestingly they have him as most likely selected pick 8.5... Getting the BPA, and adding protection for their new franchise QB Kyler Murray seems like a good fit.
9) Jacksonville Jaguar's select Derrick Brown DT-AUB
Derrick Brown is another player whose draft position is somewhat hard to pin down. Vegas has him as most likely selected after pick 8.5. I personally feel like Jacksonville would rather select the best Defensive lineman in the draft instead of the 3rd best OT.
10) Cleveland Brown's select Jedrick Wills OT-ALA
If Cleveland wants to get the most out of Baker. They have to give him time to throw. Odd's have him as very likely to be taken before pick 11, and have him as the 3rd best offensive tackle. That combined with team need makes me fairly confident with this pick.
11) New York Jet's select Andrew Thomas OT-GEOR
The last remaining Big 4 Offensive Tackle is a good match for the Jets. Vegas think's it is unlikely he makes it out of the top 10, but someone has to fall out. Fortunately for the Jet's it's a position of great need.
12) Las Vegas Raider's select Jerry Jeudy WR-ALA
The oddsmakers favorite for the first wide receiver taken. This is another great match of team need, and most likely outcome. Las Vegas needs an exciting player to bring into the new city, and Jeudy is it.
13) San Francisco 49ers select CeeDee Lamb WR-OKL
Runner up for the best Wide Receiver of one of the best receiving class of all time is CeeDee Lamb. He makes a great addition to the 49ers team which prioritizes players that are explosive when the ball is in their hands.
14) Trade Philadelphia Eagle's select Henry Ruggs WR-ALA
Vegas is very confident that Ruggs goes before Denver gets a chance to grab him at 15. I don't see Tampa Bay selecting a Wide Receiver when they have Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin. So I WR needy team like PHI, or MIN trade up to get their guy.
15) Denver Bronco's select Javon Kinlaw DT-SC
Very talented player which is projected to have 50-50 odds of going pick 13. Kinlaw add's a extremely talented DT to pair up with an aging Von Miller.
16) Atlanta Falcon's select CJ Henderson CB-FLA
Atlanta has managed to get 1st round talents at basically every offensive position. Hard to go wrong with the 2nd best CB in the class. Vegas has him going before pick 17, and this spot makes a ton of sense.
17) Dallas Cowboy's select K'Lavon Chaisson EDGE-LSU
BPA according to vegas. Also fits the Cowboy's draft needs as they've spent a ton of money on Dak/CoopeElliot, and will need to continue building the defense through the draft.
18) Trade Detroit Lion's select Jordan Love QB-UTST
Vegas views him as a back half of the 1st Rnd talent. Detroit uses the extra pick they got from trading back with Miami in order to, select a high upside QB that can eventually replace the aging Matt Stafford.
19) Las Vegas Raider's select Kenneth Murray LB-OKL
The back half of the draft starts to get pretty murky using the vegas odds. They have him as most likely selected after pick 21.5. However, the BPA is Justin Jefferson, and I don't see the Raider's selecting two Wide Receivers in the first round. Kenneth Murray is the next best play available according to vegas. So the Raider's select him instead.
20) Jacksonville Jaguar's select Justin Jefferson WR-LSU
Jefferson is the Best WR, and Player available. Jefferson's skillset matches well with last year's breakout D.J. Chark.
21) Tampa Bay Buccaneer's select Xavier McKinney S-ALA
Best Safety in the draft according to Vegas, AND the only safety with a 1st RD grade (RIP Delpit). Not exactly a huge need for the Buc's, but the odds on BPA
22) Minnesota Viking's select Patrick Queen LB-LSU
BPA currently. MINN probably wishes that Jefferson fell to them in order to replace Stefon Diggs. However, the draft is crazy deep at WR, and they won't need to reach for one here.
23) New England Patriot's select Kristian Fulton CB-LSU
50-50 shot at going above Pick 24. I have the Patriots over looking Fulton's character concerns here. Fulton could make a fantastic addition to the Patriots secondary playing with Gilmore.
24) New Orleans Saint's select Josh Jones OT-HOU
With a well built team the Saint's select the BPA Jone to help keep people from getting to Brees.
25) Minnesota Viking's select Denzel Mims WR-BAY
No one has had a better off season than Mim's he's looked extraordinary at both the Senior Bowl, and the NFL Combine. Great player, and will help the Viking's recover from the loss of Diggs.
26) Miami Dolphins select Austin Jackson OT-USC
An incredibly athletic OT. This pick will help Miami put a strong core around Tua.
27) Seattle Seahawk's select Yetur Gross-matos EDGE-PENN
Vegas thinks it's unlikely that Yetur make's it past Pick 27. As the best remaining EDGE according to Vegas, Yetur matches well with the Seahawk's draft needs.
28) Baltimore Raven's select Trevon Diggs CB-ALA
Baltimore happily accepts the best CB remaining in Trevon Diggs. He has the size, speed, and length needed to play CB at the next level, and will help Baltimore greatly as they try and compete for a championship in 2020.
29) Tennessee Titan's select AJ Epenesa EDGE-IOWA
BPA availible, at a team need.
30) Green Bay Packer's select Jalen Reagor WR-TCU
The only player on my list which didn't have a prop bet. Green Bay needs a Wide Receiver to pair up with Adams, and give Aaron Rodger's a chance to get back to the big game. Other wide receivers which could be chosen here (Aiyuk, Shenault, Higgins), all have a 2nd round grade according to the odds.
31) San Francisco 49er's select D'Andre Swift RB-GEOR
While the 49er's made do with a committee approach to the running back position in 2019. D'Andre Swift is simply to talented to let slip by at the end of the 1st.
32) Kansas City Chief's select AJ Terrell
There's 3-4 player's here which do not have a 1st round grade according to Vegas. I think AJ Terrell is the best of them. At one of the most important positions in the league.
Let me know what you think. Was an interesting project to spend time on.

THE ROARIN MAC'S Impeachment & Election Predictions, Picks, and Odds!
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Professional Gambling Information from Retired Vegas Sports Consultant Roland "The MAC" McGuillaman!
Donald Trump Impeachment & Election Predictions, Picks, and Odds!
THE ROARIN MAC'S Impeachment & Election Predictions, Picks, and Odds!
TRUMP ODDS, 2020 PRESIDENT REELECTION LINES, TRUMP ELECTION PROP BETS | DONALD TRUMP BETTING
WILL DONALD TRUMP RUN FOR RE-ELECTION IN 2020?
Wager cut off: 2019 31st December 10:00 AM
YES -675
NO +425
WILL D TRUMP BE ELECTED TO A 2ND TERM AS POTUS?
Wager cut off: 2019 31st December 10:00 AM
YES -200
NO +140
NUMBER OF REPUB. SENATORS TO VOTE FOR IMPEACHMENT
Wager cut off: 2019 31st December 1:00 PM
0 +150
1-4 +100
5-9 +650
10 OR MORE +1000
WILL MCCONNELL TRY TO DISMISS ARTICLES OF IMPEACH.
Wager cut off: 2019 31st December 1:00 PM
YES +250
NO -400
PELOSI TO SEND ARTICLES OF IMPEACHMENT TO SENATE
Wager cut off: 2019 31st December 1:00 PM
YES -3000
NO +2000
WILL MITT ROMNEY VOTE FOR IMPEACHMENT
Wager cut off: 2019 31st December 1:00 PM
YES +180
NO -220
WILL SUSAN COLLINS VOTE FOR IMPEACHMENT
Wager cut off: 2019 31st December 1:00 PM
YES +300
NO -500
WILL MARCO RUBIO VOTE FOR IMPEACHMENT
Wager cut off: 2019 31st December 1:00 PM
YES +250
NO -400
2020 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - TO WIN
Wager cut off: 2020 10th January 10:00 AM
DONALD TRUMP -250
BERNIE SANDERS +1000
PETE BUTTIGIEG +1000
JOE BIDEN +700
ANDREW YANG +4000
ELIZABETH WARREN +380
TULSI GABBARD +12000
AMY KLOBUCHAR +11500
CORY BOOKER +32500
MIKE PENCE +6000
JULIAN CASTRO +120000
JOHN KASICH +35000
MICHAEL BLOOMBERG +1700
HILLARY CLINTON +3300
NIKKI HALEY +8000
MARIANNE WILLIAMSON +120000
GENDER OF NEXT U.S. PRESIDENT?
Wager cut off: 2020 10th January 10:00 AM
MAN -500
WOMAN +350
It just doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that Joe Biden isn't a rocket scientist, and it doesn't take a feminist to know that there is no chance of there being a first American first lady-boy. Look, the bottom line is that Trump needs another 4 years as POTUS to set up his posthumous monetary bottom line by setting up a few more international back room deals & slippery handshakes with a few more Global Corporation CEO's, Military Leaders, and Offshore Banks!
RedAlertWagers.com and Roland "The Roarin MAC" McGuillaman along with the American People will be voting TRUMP 2020 and that's just what it is!
The MAC'S 2020 Presidential Prediction - DONALD TRUMP -250
Predictions are Courtesy of RedAlertWagers.com and Odds are Courtesy of MyBookie.ag
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(FEB 02) EXCLUSIVE SUPER BOWL LIV EASY EARLY MONEY NFL PICK - SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS +2 vs KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -2 Betting Preview & Prediction
When: Sunday, February 2 Where: HARD ROCK STADIUM - MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA TV: FOX
SUPER BOWL LIV ODDS: Side: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS +2 vs KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -2 Total**: 55** Chiefs-Niners at Super Bowl LIV - Written by Lester Cullan on January 21, 2020 Vegas sports gambling analyst heard on ESPN Radio, Fox, CBS, Sirius, etc.
Two of this year’s most impressive teams will meet on Sunday, February 2 in Miami Gardens when the San Francisco 49ers face the Kansas City Chiefs at Super Bowl LIV.
Both teams looked strong during the Conference Championships, although the San Francisco (15-3 SU, 11-6-1 ATS) appeared to have a sharper edge, shutting out the Green Bay Packers in the first half before winning 37-20 as 7.5-point home favorites to claim the NFC title.
The Chiefs (14-4 SU, 12-5-1 ATS) made it back to their first Super Bowl in 50 years by beating the Tennessee Titans 35-24, also as 7.5-point home favorites. Kansas City's head coach Andy Reid finally gets another chance to put his name in the record books; at the end of the 2004 campaign, Reid led the Philadelphia Eagles to Super Bowl XXXIX, where they lost 24-21 to the New England Patriots in Jacksonville.
The 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is also looking for redemption after coming up short against the Patriots. This is his first Big Game as a head coach, but he was the offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons at Super Bowl LI in Houston, where the Falcons coughed up that big lead and lost 34-28 in overtime.
SF 49er's:

49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
49ers are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
49ers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
49ers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win
49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

KC Chiefs:

Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Chiefs are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
Chiefs are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
Chiefs are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
Chiefs are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Chiefs are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS win.
Chiefs are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game

Game Total - 55

Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game
Under is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 playoff games

The betting public is leaning towards a KC win, making the Chiefs a slight favorite and there are not many believers on the San Francisco side of the line, kinda like the public was towards gays in the 90's
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs might be a slight NFL betting favorite to win Super Bowl LIV, but Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Francisco 49ers are looking like a team that won’t go down quietly – kinda like a gay man.
If you’re looking for reasons to back the Niners then you will be stretching for the few available reasons.
The Kansas City Chiefs have Travis Kelce but the 49ers have a tight end in George Kittle that is touted as the BEST tight end in the game! Kittle has 85 catches for 1,053 yards with 5 TD grabs. The problem is that Kittle has just 4 catches for 35 yards and absolutely no TD's in 2 games.
KC has a passing game that ranked them 5th in the NFL and they score points, also 5th in the NFL averaging 28.2 points a game, but they are horrible running the ball, the Chiefs rank 23rd in rushing and if San Francisco can shut down Pat's passing game they can force them to use that shitty run game!
The San Francisco 49ers finished the regular season ranked 6th in takeaways, 25 of them in all, they picked off Aaron Rodgers 2 times in the NFC Championship which ended up being the difference in their biggest game of the season.
Kansas City not only has a crappy rush game they cant't stop the run, this could be a problem for the betting public, the 49ers have the backs that have been under the radar this year, will this be the X-Factor? Will the rush game determine the winner of Super Bowl 54, running the ball controls the clock and the team that controls the clock wins. The Kansas City Chiefs have plenty of reasons to beat the Niners but can they?
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Hi all! We have a wonderful Sunday slate ahead, first lets recap TNF.
Singles: 3-0 (+9.78u)
Parlay: 0-2 (-2u)
BBDLS: none
Teasers: none
Notes: This was an amazing little set for us. We were able to go 3-0 and cash in on the Cook to score the first TD @ over +300. I added in those two late parlays with Washington either winning or covering 4.5. Honestly, even after watching the game, I still think plays on WAS were profitable. Before Keenum went down, WAS had a real shot in that game. On to this Sundays games!

Early Games (1pm)

New York @ Detroit (-6/6.5): To start the day, we have a battle of two sub .500 teams. The Giants are coming off a heart breaker (at least to me, haha) They allowed the Cardinals to come in and deliver an upset victory even though the Giants were coming off increased rest and had some key players returning. Detroit's season so far has been surrounded in a cloud of shit. Maybe the first game of the season should have been an indicator of how their season will play out. Look really good coming out of the gate, but overall fail to live up to the start. They will look to halt their recent stumbles against a Giants offence that has 18 turnovers (worst in the league!). On the flip side, the Giants will probably look to use the return of Saquan to exploit the Lions rush D that gives up an average 4.8 ypc (26th) and 140 ypg on ground (28th). Some notable injuries include: Sterling Shepherd is still out for the Giants, and Kerryon Johnson is out for the Lions after injuring his knee in the game last week against the Vikings. Another notable piece missing will be Quandre Diggs. The lions traded him to Seattle this week in exchange for a 2020 fifth-round pick. This game is going to be about the start. My algo is favoring DET by a TD, but DET hasn't beaten anyone yet by more than 3 points and with their recent struggles and poor run D... NY has the potential to get a lead and lean on their run game, I think a pure upset is possible here. Golden Tate is returning to Detroit and has been a steady look for Jones since his insertion into the Lions offense with a steady increase in targets. (week 5 (6) week 6 (9) week 7 (11))

Tampa Bay @ Tennessee (-2.5): Here we have the well rested Bucs coming off of a loss in London and then a bye week. While the Titans have had a small roller coaster over the last few weeks. They were sliding and ultimately replaced Mariota with Ryan Tannehill. The change of QB ignited a boost from the offense (putting up 400 last week) that was previously lacking in a downfield attack. Other than the Bucs missing TE OJ Howard, there aren't any serious, notable injuries. So, Tennessee does have Derrick Henry...but, the Bucs have a The BEST run D, giving up only 2.9 ypc and 68 ypg (1st in both!) However, the Bucs pass D is atrocious and overall the Bucs have given up 30+ points in EVERY game this year except one. Emotionally it feels like the Titans should be riding high. The change of QB sparked the offense, and the Titans D has made THREE goal line stands this year, in the final minute of games, for wins each time. The Titans D is also sporting a very respectable 16 ppg given up to opposing offense. (good for 4th in the league) The Algo has TB -1 here so its a very curious spread. Usually in these low spread coin flip spots I either stay away or play both sides in separate plays. Looking props, I would look to Cory Davis and AJ Brown (WRs for TEN) who with the QB change went for a combined 12 catches for 144 yards off only 15 targets last game...and this game they are facing the TB secondary that is giving up over 300 ypg in the air.

L.A. Chargers @ Chicago (-3.5/-4): Here we have a classic battle of two teams who preseason were favorites to make the playoffs. Now, less than halfway through the season, it looks as if both teams will be looking ahead to next year. The Chargers are coming off a really tough loss to the Titans last week where it looked like the Chargers scored 3 times to win the game, but none of the attempts ended up counting. The Bears are coming off a blowout loss to the Saints (who were somehow underdogs even though they have been dominant) The Bears offense just doesn't have it. Mitch looks great when the opposing D drops into prevent and gives him time to find open guys...but other than that, he is really struggling. First let's look at notable injuries:
LAC: Melvin Ingram (hamstring) is expected to return after missing the last three games and (LT) Russell Okung (pulmonary embolism) will make his season debut after experiencing major health issues during the off season.
CHI: Chicago CB Sherrick McManis (concussion) likely will miss the game after being injured against the Saints.
Alright, so if Mitch is going to get back on track and show his owners he deserves to stay on this team, the Chargers D is a good spot for him to do it. The Charges D is near the bottom in almost everything [Comp % (32nd), QBR (28th), YPA (29th)]. They only give up 216 ypg in the air., but that's only vs 185 attempts (3rd fewest in the league). On the other side, the Bears D is still pretty good in every category. They only falter in one, Completion Percentage (69%) which is 27th in the league.
In props we are looking at both RBs for this game. Last week Eckler went: 7 rec, 118 yds and a TD and is tied for 3rd most receptions in the NFL! To add to that, the Bears have given up the 5th most yards to receiving backs. On the other side we have Cohen who gets a ton of opportunity for receptions.
Note: Sooo, an interesting stat I came across: Betting the Chargers on the road vs. a team with a better win, would have you sitting at % 22-4 ATS, and if you had teased them you would be 26-0. This is the Chargers over the last 5 years

Seattle @ Atlanta (+7): Soo, it is currently 2:30 pm on Saturday and as I am writing this, most of the online books here in NJ took this game down. The line was originally floating around 3.5/4, now it is only available at 7 on two sites. I am assuming this is because ATL activated their QB3 indicating Ryan has a great chance of being inactive. In injury news: "
The Falcons cornerback Desmond Trufant will miss his third straight game with a toe injury. Rookie Kendall Sheffield will get the start in Trufant’s place. The Falcons will also be without guard James Carpenter (knee) and running back Ito Smith, who is in concussion protocol.
For Seattle, defensive tackle Quinton Jefferson (oblique) and safety Delano Hill (elbow) have been declared out. The problem for the Seahawks is that they have six players listed as questionable, including recent acquire, Quandre Diggs.
Lets start with the obvious, the Falcons D. Atlanta run D is actually pretty good, holding opposing RBs to under 4 ypc and 70 ypg. But, their secondary is trash, bottom of the league in almost everything: QBR 31st, ypg 28th, comp % 29th. The Seattle D is not the defense of old. They average giving up 25 ppg and 360 ypg. However, they are top 10 in takeaways this year with 12 and the ATL offense has 12 turnovers already. On the other side, even with losing to Baltimore last week, SEA O ranks in the top 10 in: qbr 2nd, ypg 10th, comp % 8th, and ypa. Going against that ATL D, the edge definitely sits with SEA. In props, the look is on Austin Hooper. He has had minimum 4 receptions per game, is averaging over 7, and should get an increase in his looks with ATL trading away their WR2 in Sanu.

Denver @ Indianapolis (-4.5/-5): This is one of the most curious lines to me. The algo has the Colts at only -4. Public perception should have the colts at -7/7.5. Yet the line opened at 5, briefly moved up to 5.5 and has been slowly falling to 4.5. I feel like the Colts should rock this game, but the lines are red flagging me otherwise. Lets jump into the numbers. Other than Carl Davis, there are no real injuries to note. In terms of sacks, Brissett has been sacked only 7 times this year, while Flacco has been sacked a whopping 23 times! Even with the recent loss to the Chiefs, the Bronco's D is pretty stout, giving up only the 5th best passer rating and they are 3rd in pass ypg and 3rd in ypa giving up less than 200 pass ypg. The Indy D ranks 19th in rush yards allowed per game, 26th in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA metric and 28th and 30th in tackling and run defense respectively according to Pro Football Focus. But, the Bronco's offense sucks ranking 29th in ppg and 25th in ypg. Likely to give them less of an offensive threat is the trade of Emanuel Sanders to the 49ers. If I am going props in this game it would have to be Lindsey(Indy rush D is not that good) or Sutton (he is already the number 1, and the number 2 was traded away this week)
Every time I review this game, the logic tells me that Indy should win and keep the train rolling. But something inside keeps screaming take Denver. Probably nothing, but Im gonna note it :P

NY Jets @ Jacksonville (-6/-6.5/-7): A lot of lines available for this one, which is funny to me...as you'll see, I and my algo both favor the Jets. The Jets are coming off a sha-lacking vs. the Patriots where they were completely shut down. Jacksonville is coming off a 10 point win, but the game was much closer than the score shows with Jacksonville trailing into the 4th where they scored 18 points. Darnold had an issue with a toe, but it looks as if he as go. Other than that, there are 3 linebackers out for Jacksonville, and 1 possibly for NY. The Jets get to see the return of TE Herndon. As we all know, the Jax offense starts with their run game which is pretty good, gaining 5.1 ypc (3rd), and 140 ypg (5th). But, the strength of the Jets defense is their run D. They held pats to 2.2 ypc, and overall they only give up 3.3 ypc (2nd) and 92 ypg (11th) The Jets offense hasn't done much, but they have only started Darnold in 2 games (not including the Pats game because their D seems to be an outlier) and he is 1-1 and could quite easily be 2-0 in those games (losing the first one to the Bills comeback in week 1) It will be facing a Jax D that is pretty good. Their pass rush has a 30% pressure rate (6th), 21 sacks (4th), and a 9.2% knockdown rate (3rd). The algo has Jax @ -9/10 here. But does anyone really feel that confident laying a TD with Jax right now? Based upon the number match ups, this looks like it is going to be a grind of a game with both teams struggling for points. In those predicted under type games, I almost always favor the large amount of points. This is a game that deserves some underdog action.

Philadelphia @ Buffalo (-2): The Eagles are coming off a big divisional loss to the Cowboys on Prime Time, while Buffalo is coming off a win, but a win they had to fight back to get. They were expected to easily handle the Dolphins last week but were taken by surprise as Miami took an early lead. They fought back to take the lead and held on by returning an onside kick for a TD. As usual, lets start with the injury report
For the Eagles, everyone here is OUT:

Nigel Bradham (ankle, illness)
WR DeSean Jackson (abdomen)
OL Tim Jernigan (foot)
OL Jason Peters (knee)
RB Darren Sproles (quad)
CB Avonte Maddox (concussion)

The Bills have a list of questionables, but everyone seems to be a go.
Lets start with Philly. This is their fourth road game in five weeks and they have allowed an average of 31.5 ppg in all 4 road games. Their defense has given up 24 or more points in 6 of 7 games this year and the only game they didn't give up at least 24...was vs. the Jets with Luke Falk at QB. In all 4 of their losses they have had a turnover. Clean games have not been easy for them. They will be facing a Buffalo D that is top in the league. They only give up 15 ppg (3rd) under 300 ypg (3rd) and their pass d is top 5 in ypg, passer rating, completion % and ypa. Combine that with the NFL's seventh-ranked rushing attack (135.8 ypg) with Frank Gore gaining 4.5 ypc. However, Philly is known to stack the box and stop the run. They were gashed last week, but overall only give up 90 ypg on the ground so far. With Philly likely to stack the box and force Buffalo to throw, I will be looking at Brown and Beasly for props, going against a Philly secondary that is laughable. My only concern in this game is my algo has BUF -8.5 and the Vegas spread is WAYYY off from that. This may have me avoiding a side in singles when i would normally feel Buffalo here.

Cincinatti @ LA Rams (-11.5/-12/-12.5): Curious that the spreads are all over the place. However, 11-13 are really dead numbers so not much info to be gained from the multiple spreads. Cincinati looks worse than MIA. They looked decent for 3 quarters last week, but just couldn't hold it together. The Rams took the opportunity to play the Atlanta D and easily hopped back on the win train. This game will be taking place in London. The Bengals arrived on Friday and the Rams spent the week in ATL after last weeks game, and flew to London on Thursday night. No real injuries that need to be talked about. There are a few players out for both sides but nothing should effect the game much. So the Rams D had 5 sacks last week and is 4th in the league in QB pressure. Cincy has already been sacked 24 times this year. The add on of Jaylen Ramsey saw immediate impact as he had 4 tackles and a forced fumble in his first game with the Rams. The Cincy D has allowed an average 102 QBR and 8.4 ypa. While the Rams offense scores 27 ppg (7th) and gains 372 ypg (12th). Another interesting stat: Cincinnati's minus-9 turnover differential is the third-worst in the NFL. The algo only has LA as -9.5/-10.5 so i will probably avoid spreads in this game. For an interesting prop look, check out Darrel Henderson. The RB2 is out and in a gamescript where the Rams are leading by more than a score, they might look to rest Gurley for more difficult situations. This may lead to increased looks for Henderson.

Arizona @ New Orleans (-12/-12.5): Whoa! Big movement and big news. This line opened at 7.5 and has now moved all the way up to 12.5 in most books. This is in connection with the announcement that Brees will be returning this Sunday to lead his team into the bye week. 1st question... why? Bridgewater is 5-0 in his absence. They are facing what should be one of their easier opponents, and they head into a bye next week. Maybe they want Brees to see some game time speed, given it should be one of their easier games. This way he doesn't come out cold in two weeks... I dont know. Either way, it seems like a curious change to make. The Saints have Smith, Cook and Robinson out. While the Cardinals Allen and Foster with a whole list of questionable.
The Saints D is amazing so far. Currently they haven't allowed more than 260 total yards in 4 straight games and they are 34% on 3rd down, and have 20 sacks (5th). In the first four games, Arizona allowed 20 sacks (all losses or tie) but in the last 3 (all wins) Murray has only been sacked a total of 3 times. My Algo had this only as NO -4.5. Now that Brees is in and the line has moved so much, this game may be an avoid game. In props, I may look to Murray's rush yards. He should be pressured a ton in this game, and when he is pressured he likes to move.

Afternoon Games

Oakland @ Houston (-6.5): Oakland is on their 5th straight road game and coming off a loss at GB. They actually had a chance in that game. Carr fumbled in the end zone and it caused a 14 point swing that took away any momentum Oakland had. The OAK D has given up 21 points in 5 straight games and the pass rush has only a 14 % pressure rate (32nd), a 19 % blitz rate (4th lowest) and 10 sacks (28th). If they dont get to the QB, it might be all Houston as Watson is 7-0 in games when he doesn't get sacked and he is sporting 8.3 ypa through the air this year. Along side him is a pretty solid run game lead by Carlos Hyde gaining an average 66 ypg, 4.2 ypc. With the Texans rush offense as a whole gaining 4.9 ypc (5th) and 134 ypg (8th). The Algo has this as Hou -9.5 so this actually makes me suspicious of the spread. Any bets in this game will come down to the start/sit of Josh Jacobs. Without the threat of him in the backfield, the Texans D will be able to drop extra men into coverage, but if he plays, I would look for a closer game that leans towards a shootout.

Carolina @ San Francisco (-4.5/-5/-5.5): These next three are my most anticipated games of the slate. This game features the undefeated 49ers hosting the streaking Panthers. For Carolina, no notable injuries for this week. For the 49ers its the same as before. (FB) Kyle Juszczyk (knee), (OT) Mike McGlinchey (knee), and (OT) Joe Staley are all still out. So to start with we see Garoppolo is 5-0 with eight touchdowns and three interceptions in five home starts with San Francisco. They just added Emanuel Sanders to the roster which should ultimately boost their already good 7.9 ypa on offense. Garoppolo will be going against the Panthers’ secondary that was outstanding early in the season but has surrendered more than 350 yards in consecutive games. The SF rush D that has only allowed 4.1ypc (12th) and 90 ypg (7th) will have its hands full this week going up against Christian McCaffrey who has 923 yards rushing so far. An interesting stat that has me leaning Carolina in this one: CAR blitzes the fewest of any team in the league...YET, they lead the NFL in sacks. I will be shopping my line here and lean with the dog.

Cleveland @ New England (-10/-10.5/-11): This is going to be a fun match up to watch. But it doesn't appear it will be a good game. There are no real injuries to note and you could make a case for CLE by saying they are coming off a bye and are desperate for a win vs. a NE team that is coming off a short week. But with my model, that doesn't appear to be the case. The Cleveland offense averages 231 ypg (16th) and 7.5 ypa (15th) but has 15 dropped passes (3rd )and 11 ints (32nd). They have 1 in every game... Also, Baker has turned the ball over 12 times this year (tied for the most in the NFL) going against a NE D that has 18 INTs right now. This looks like a game where the Patriots will utilize their mutli-headed run game as Cleveland has been gashed for 154.0 yard per game on the ground. The one shining light for the browns D is they have 19 sacks. However, 9 of those sacks have come from Myles Garret. Also, here is a video I came across where it is detailed how to disrupt the play of Baker Mayfield. I feel like if I can find this, so can the Patriots.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4qlJE4DZsc

Sunday Night Football

Green Bay @ Kansas City(+4.5/+5): This one has the biggest line movement of the slate. Originally, it opened KC -4, since the Mahomes injury, it has moved to what it is now. The only other notable injury is DeVante Adams will still be out for GB. Starting for KC should be Matt Moore, who replaced PM during the Denver game. He did fairly well, coming in and going 10-19 117 yds, 1TD and a 90 QBR. KC last played on Thursday, so they had a few extra days to prepare for this one. I feel like with Matt Moore starting at QB, a lot of KC offensive stats are devalued. KC defense has 20 sacks (5th) and will be facing and offensive line in GB that has only give up 12 sacks. The packers rank 11th in offense but it has mostly been due to the passing game. They have failed to get more than 80 yards rushing in 4 of 7. They may look to turn that around this week against a poor KC run defense that gives up 5 ypc (30th) and 150 ypg (29th). I dont expect Matt Moore to have too difficult of a time. He still has a lot of star power on the offensive side of the ball and they will be facing a Green Bay defense that ranks 26th in total defense and has given up 420 or more total yards three times. However, the team is ninth in scoring defense with 13 takeaways. My algo had GB -2.5, before the PM adjustments. I dont think Moore deserves the 8-9 points Vegas is adjusting for, but even field goad pushes GB to -5.5. Overall for props the model is predicting both of GBs running backs to have increased opportunities on the ground and in the air.

Singles 46-53-2 (+3.03u)

NYG +6.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
NYG ml (1u to win 2.5u)
Golden Tate 75+ Rec Yards (2u to win 2.3u)
Saquon 75+ Rush Yards (1u to win 1u)
Saquon 105.5+ Rush and Rec Yards (0u to win 3u)
Corey Davis 3.5 Rec Over (0u to win 2u)
A.J. Brown 2.5 Rec Over (0u to win 1.3u)
Phillip Lindsey 53.5 Rush Yards Over (0u to win 1u)
Phillip Lindsey to Score TD (0u to win 1.2u)
Chargers ml (1u to win 1.63u)
Chargers +3.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
Eckler 5.5 Rec Over (0u to win 1.2u)
Eckler 45.5 Rec Yards Over (0u to win 2u)
Hooper 58.5 Rec Yards Over (2.3u to win 2u)
NYJ +7 (2.2u to win 2u)
NYJ ml (1u to win 2.7u)
Gardener Minshew 239.5 Pass yards Under (0u to win 1u)
New England -10.05 (1.1u to win 1u)
Kenny stills 3.5 Rec Over (0u to win 2u)
Aaron Jones 64.5 Rush Yards Over(0u to win 1u)
Aaron Jones 13.5 Rush Attempts (0u to win 2u)
Jamal Williams 21.5 Rec Yards Over (1.1u to win 1u)

Parlays: 1-3 (+43.42u)

Titans ml, Rams ml, Saints ml, Pats ml (1u to win 1.86u)
Rams ml, Saints ml, Pats ml, Bills ml (1u to win 2u)
Rams ml, Saints ml, Pats ml, Den +5.5 (1u to win 2.2u)
Jets +7, LAC +3.5, NYG +3.5, CAR +4.5, NE -8.5 (2.5u to win 72.2u) This has "parlay insurance" A promo on DK wherein if 4 out of 5 legs hit, I get a refund on my bet.
Rams ml, Saints ml, Pats ml, GB ml, Jets +7, NYG +6, LAC +3.5 (0u to win 117.7u)

Big Boy Daddy Long Shot 0-6 (-5.19u)

Ten ml, NYG ml, DEN ml, LAC ml, NYJ +7, Buf ml, NO ml, Sea ml, Car +4.5, NE ml, GB ml, Mia ml (0u to win 5438.7u)
Rams ml, Saints ml, Pats ml, GB ml, Jets +7, NYG +6, LAC +3.5, SEA ml, Buf ml, Ten ml, Car +5.5 (0u to win 231.1u)

Super Big Boy Daddy Long Shot: 0-2 (-1u)

I put this in at the Ocean Casino, I will post in the comments if by some miracle all the 1 and 4 pm games hit. (0.5u to win 10000u)

Teasers: 5-11 (-11.18u)

I am putting in a teaser card at the Ocean when I head over there before the games today. I will post picks in the comments after I see the lines and place the bet.

Futures

NE, GB, CLE, NYG all to win their Division (0u to win 257.8u) This is a Free bet (last one for DK, it was close to expiring) I like CLE's schedule after the pats game. NYG..I mean cmon. Everyones getting healthy, and the rest of the division hasn't been dominant enough to count them out. Should be a fun sweat!

Notes for bets: So this week I drove to PA (I live in South Jersey) and I made new accounts on some websites in PA. Because of this I now have 45u in Free Bets that need to be used in the next 30 days. I will probably sprinkle them into my singles and take a 10u shot here or there on a parlay.

Thanks for reading. Good luck to all!!

Sports betting may be legal in 8 states, but an American Gaming Association survey indicated that 95% of the expected $6 billion to be wagered on Super Bowl 53 (up from $4.76 billion last year) will be placed through unregulated or illegal channels. 8% of fans (1.8 million) gambling illegally on the game will place bets with their local bookies, the balance will give their business to off-shore online sportsbooks. Super Bowl bettors have been slow to migrate to a legal means of wagering, just 2% of those who bet on last year’s game illegally are expected to transition to a licensed gaming operator this time around.
Howie Long-Short: With 15% of the country offering legalized sports betting and the regulated gaming industry only expecting to covert 2% of fans from grey markets for the Big Game, it’s worth wondering why gamblers are foregoing the legal avenues available to them. VSIN CEO Brian Musburger explained to me that “most states that are currently operating prevent bettors from funding their mobile accounts without depositing cash at a brick and mortar casino (see: NV) and others – like Mississippi – only permit mobile gambling on the premises. Once bettors can fund mobile sports betting accounts with a credit card and place bets remotely, you’ll see that number explode; you’ll see a huge surge in deposits. As it currently stands, in many states it’s still easier for people to bet offshore than it is to do it in a regulated environment.”
What can the states do to convert those betting offshore into domestic sports bettors?
Brian: It’s on the states to be competitive [with pricing]. A good sports bettor is always going to seek the greatest potential edge. If the states overtax sports betting and regulated markets can’t be competitive with the illegal markets, the big money will remain in the gray areas. Smart Money looks for prices if the state taxes are too onerous that will only keep money offshore.
Nearly 1/10 Americans (22.7 million) will place a bet on Sunday’s game, but you won’t hear Jim Nance or Tony Romo (they’re on the call) reference the line (NE -2.5) or oveunder (56.5). That’s because with sports betting legal in just 16% of the country, CBS has opted to avoid the topic. That could change by the time Super Bowl 54 rolls around though as upwards of a dozen states could add sports betting legislation over the next 12 months. Fox has the broadcast rights to the 2020 game. I asked Brian if he would expect Murdoch and Co. to include gambling conversation and/or commercials during the game broadcast – if 40% of the country were to permit sports betting within their borders?
Brian: Well, after reading JohnWallStreet’s column from yesterday about Super Bowl advertising rates, Fox should be incentivized to take ads from casinos. But back to the first part of the question, the primary rights holders should probably stay away from sports betting; you don’t want to alienate your audience and there’s a lot of kids watching the Super Bowl that shouldn’t be inundated with sports betting talk. However, many of the people tuned into the game do have money on the line. Those individuals can use their second screen for sports betting information and I think they’ll find an outlet like VSIN is more informative and of far greater utility to them, than what Tony Romo (or Troy Aikman) will provide.
The NFL wants prop bets (wagers on an individual/team performance unrelated to the game’s outcome) “restricted – or even outlawed” deeming them too vulnerable to fixing/manipulation, and has asked congress to “allow professional and amateur sports organizations to identify which types of bets simply pose too significant a risk to the integrity of sports and to work with regulators not to authorize them.” Good luck with that. As Brian told me, “if there’s a marketplace for it, it will continue no matter what the NFL Commissioner says; and there really isn’t even a reason for the league to be concerned. The amount of money you can put down on a prop bet would never be enough to sway a professional athlete; most sports books place a low limit on props.”
Fan Marino: Most the money that has been bet on the game thus far has been sharp money. That’ll change by Sunday as casual bettors begin to place wagers on things like the coin toss and national anthem. As of Thursday evening, the money wagered in Las Vegas has been split between the Rams and Patriots.
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