Lucky 15 Calculator Work Out Your Returns ⇒ William Hill
Lucky 15 Calculator - Free Calculator For Your Winning Bets
Lucky 15 Bet Calculator - The quick way to calculate Lucky ...
Lucky 15 Bet Calculator - Quickly Work Out Your Return
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horse racing bet calculator lucky 15 - win
Top Betting Mistakes
1) Failure to Use Betting Banks Most gamblers fail to understand that the best method of achieving a healthy and sustained long term profit from racing is to set aside a sum of money away from your main finances, solely for the betting of horses. Whatever method or system you are using, whoever you are following or subscribing to or however your own bets are calculated, you are better off with a "Betting Bank" that has built -in advantages that can help you. It needs to be independent from your own personal finances and needs to be protected from factors that can threaten it. This can take a lot of emotion out of the decision making process. Emotion is a factor that threatens all punters. The size of your betting bank will of course be dependent upon your own individual circumstances and free capital available. An analogy to the world of shares perhaps may be that no financial advisor worth his salt would advise you throw all your capital into the stock market alone. The vast majority of punters fail to use any form of set aside bank. They bet randomly with what ever money they have in their pocket at the end of the week or go in too deep with stakes far in excess of their personal safety levels. A punter with a professional attitude will set aside what he can comfortably afford to invest and then determine the best use he can make of that fixed sum of capital. With a fixed sum of capital available you now move on to the next reason for failure. 2) Failure to Stake Correctly It is vital that you consider your betting bank as capped in amount. You do not have an endless pool of resources to dip into. Betting by its nature carries inherent risks. These risks include periods of low strike rates and long losing runs. Your betting bank and staking should be adapted for the method you use. You must in advance, prepare yourself for the possibility of a worse than average sequence of losers through adoption of a sufficient number of units in your betting bank. Correct methodical staking in addition to the mathematical advantage, can also help overcome the risk of emotional reaction to a sequence of unusually positive or negative results. Take the Pricewise column in the racing post as an example. Long term if you could get on at the advised prices, it would have returned a decent profit overall. During this time however followers would have to have endured runs of up to 40 losers in a row! Despite the overall long term profit I suspect the vast majority of Pricewise followers would have been terminated either by a failure to set aside a sufficient amount of points or through failure to cope with the emotion of the losing run. We have long since established here a strike rate of about 35% on our Best Bet selections and at an average S.P. of over 5/2 for each winning bet. We feel able to protect clients banks as long losing runs haven't happened and the strike rate and odds have been more than enough to ensure long steady and safe growth for your betting profits. That is in essence the key to winning money. Manage your accounts in a way that protects them as far as possible from the element of risk that the game presents you. 3) Chasing Losses Chasing losses at first sight may appear to be an easy way to guarantee an eventual profit but the true story is it is a game for fools and statistically will not work unless you generate an overall level stakes profit. Chasing losses is a game for the ill informed who do not want to make the effort to seek value in their bets. Bookmakers have to price up every race. Punters don't have to play in every race, they can pick the races they want to bet in,and that is the main edge that people fail to understand. If you have had a losing day, by attempting to chasing your losses you give up that advantage and bet in the races that you should not be betting in. You are therefore betting the way bookmakers want you to and not in the way to win. Many punters will alter their stakes in the last race either to "chase" losses or "play up" winnings. Its no coincidence that the bookmakers have ensured that the last race on each day is often a handicap or one of the hardest races that day. There will be more racing the next day and the day after that. The secret is waiting for opportunities and only betting when you know you have circumstances which favour you and not the bookmakers. You must never change your approach, or deviate from sensible staking as there is no such things as "The Last Race". 4) Lack of Value Appreciation Appreciation of "value" in a bet is core to long term success. To profit over a long series of bets you must be betting at odds greater than the true chance of winning your selection have. To do this however over the long term, you need to concentrate on each race individually and seek the value bet in that race. There is value to be had in every race. The key to it is understanding where that value is. Many times a punter will screw up a losing betting slip and say "At least I had some value". There is absolutely NO relationship between value and prices. A 33/1 chance may be diabolical value yet a very short priced favorite may be supreme value. It does not follow that the bigger the price you take the better "value" you have. The value is sometimes clear but more often well hidden and it takes a trained eye to see that. Everyone has this "Foresight" on occasions, it is a game about opinions after all and nobody is always right or wrong. Value can be the most expensive word in racing if you can't bet winner. The old cliche is that value is about betting a horse whose true chance is better than its price reflects. That's only a small part of it. You also have to make sure that you bet in the right way and in the right races as that is the only way you can keep strike rates high and protect a betting bank. You should continually strive to increase value in your bets. Once you have a selection you feel is value do not just take the first acceptable price that comes along. Seek to improve it by shopping around the various bookmakers or try and top the best bookmakers price by looking to the betting exchanges. Marginal improvements on odds on each bet you make can have a dramatic effect on long term profits. 5) Greed For Instant Wealth Many punters seek the thrill of a life changing bet that will produce huge gains of instant wealth for a small outlay. Bookmakers play on your natural desire and go out of their way to encourage you to bet exotic multiple selection bets that can in one hit, turn a small stake into a large sum. Professionals however rarely bet in multiples. Most professionals bet singles and steer away from the multiple bets. Bookmakers relentlessly promote a host of multiple bets with exotic names such as Yankee, Lucky 15, and Goliath. The reason they are heavily touted is the profit margin in the bookmaker's favour increases the more selections you add to your multiple bet. Say you select any random 5/1 selection. If you bet this as a single the bookmaker may have a theoretical edge in his favor of 15%. Taking two such selections however and betting them in a win double, the bookmakers profit margin rises to about 30% ! Yes your win double can produce a much bigger win from the same stake however over the long term the bookmaker is eating away at your capital at a much faster rate. It is a waste of time debating which type of multiple bet is 'best'. Unless your prediction skills are supernatural or you are incredibly lucky, then betting in singles is more often the best option. You may say that many "Pros," do bet in multiples in bets like The Scoop 6 or the Jackpot, but that's only because they know there is plenty of "Dead" money in any given Pool and they are betting against people who don't understand the dynamics of those types of bet. There are times you should bet in multiples but in truth they are few and far between. You can't approach this as a "Get Rich Quick " scheme. It is a long slow process of serious and sustained profit and not a game for Get Rich Quick schemers. If you go Into any Betting shop, have a look at all the posters on the wall offering "special offers", "enhanced terms " and "bonus offers". You will see they are all multiple bets. Bookmakers want you betting in multiples and it is easy to see why. They carve most profit from them. You never see a Bookmakers promotion offering extra's on a win or each way single. Ask yourself why.
Ultimate Gambling Guide for GTA Online - odds, probabilities, and optimal strategies
Since the Diamond Casino update, I have seen a large number of 12-year-olds posting Blackjack memes on this sub. As a parent, this has me very worried. On top of that, I have seen some of the most trustworthy GTA Youtubers giving flawed gambling advice, which can have damaging impact on their gullible audiences. So that's why I decided to write this up, to educate everyone on the subject, so there will be no more misunderstandings. (2020 Update down at the bottom.) If you're one of those Youtubers that wants to use this information in a video, feel free to do so. The more people (especially kids) that become educated about gambling, the better. But then also please go back and review your own work, and delete or edit the videos that are giving out the wrong advice, like where you're saying you have "a good strategy for making money with roulette", or some other nonsense that I've heard this week. Delete that please. Before I get into the individual games, I need to discuss a few concepts first, that will make understanding the rest a lot easier. Expected return and variance A game like Roulette or Slots has a fixed expected return on your bets. This is a percentage that you have no way of influencing. Say you are flipping a coin against a friend, and you both put up $1. The winner gets the pot. Since the odds are even at 50%, in the long run, you will expect to break even. Your expected return is 100% of your bet. But imagine if you would play this coin flipping game in a casino against the house. On the "house rules" listed at the table they would probably say that you would only get 95 cents back for every win, while you are forfeiting a dollar on every loss. Would you still play? Sounds stupid to do so, but still, everybody does it. Every bet they place on Roulette, every coin they put into a Slot machine, is based on the same concept. Those few cents they take on every bet are their profit margin, and has paid for all the Vegas lights, the Mirage volcanoes, and the Bellagio fountains. Make no mistake - casino gambling games are not designed to make you lose, because sure, you can get lucky on a single night, but they are designed to make them win. That's the beauty of it. They can both exist at the same time. Too many people that don't see how this works, are just destined for disaster. Just because you went on a lucky streak and won 8 games out of 10, does not mean that flipping coins is a profitable game, or that choosing tails is a winning strategy. Always be aware of the house edge, your true chances of winning, and just realize that you got lucky. There is no such thing as a strategy in flipping a coin that will give you a higher expected return, so it's just pure gambling, just like Slots and Roulette. Most casino games are made in such a way, that your expected return is a little under 100%. This means that from every dollar bet at the tables, the casino expects to keep a few cents. For individual players, results may vary. Some will win, most will lose. But for the house, it doesn't matter. They take millions of bets each day, so for them, the expected average works out a lot sooner. In short: the house always wins. When looking at the house edge, we're talking about the expected long-term result, based on the game's house rules. But for a player, it can take literally tens of thousands of hands or spins before you also reach this average number. Until that time, you can experience huge upswings and downswings, that are the result of nothing but short-term luck, which is called variance. Some games and some bets have a much higher variance than others, which means your actual results will differ enormously from what you're expected to be at. Take for example betting on red/black at the Roulette table. This is a low-variance proposition, because it has a high percentage chance of occurring, and a low payout. Contrast this with betting single numbers in Roulette, which only win once every 38 spins on average. This bet has a much higher variance, meaning you can easily hit a dry spell, and not hit anything for 200 bets in a row, or you can see a single number hit three times in five consecutive spins. This is not a freak occurrence in high-variance bets. Even though the expected return in both these bets is exactly the same, there's a huge difference in variance, causing massive differences in short-term results, which can go both ways. You need to be aware of this, before you decide what types of bets you are comfortable with placing. Gamblers' Fallacy Another thing to realize, is that each individual game, hand, or spin, is completely independent from the one(s) before it, and after it. Gamblers tend to believe, that the chance of a certain outcome is increased, based on previous results. The most famous example comes from the Casino de Monte Carlo, where the Roulette wheel managed to land on black 26 times in a row. Gamblers lost many millions during that streak, all frantically betting on red, believing that the odds were in favor of the wheel coming out on red, after producing so many blacks. This is not true. Each round is completely independent, and the odds are exactly the same. You will hear people say things like a Blackjack table being "hot" or "cold", which is completely superstitious, and should be ignored. The exception was when Blackjack was being dealt from a shoe. It made card counting possible. But with the introduction of shuffle machines, and continuous shuffling like is being used in GTA, this no longer exists. This is also why "chasing your losses" is a very bad idea. After being on a losing streak for some time, many gamblers believe that now it's their turn to start winning. So they will often increase their bet size, believing that when their predicted winning streak comes around, they will win back their losses, and more. The reality of it, more often than not, is that people will indeed start playing higher and higher limits, until they are completely broke. Nobody is ever "due for a win". There is never a guarantee that you're about to start winning. In fact, the opposite is more likely to be true. You are, after all, in a casino. Betting systems Some people like to think that they have a fool-proof betting system, like the Martingale system. Simply increase or even double your bet when you lose, and keep doing that until you win. In theory, this system will always win. So that's why table limits were introduced, and where the system fails. If you start at the Roulette table, playing red/black, with a small 750 chip wager, and just double your bet every time you lose, you only have to lose 6 times in a row, before you will be betting the table limit of 48,000, just to get that 750 chip profit. Sure, you can go on all evening without this happening, winning 750 chips each time, but this losing streak only has to happen once, and you're bust. Any betting system like this is ill-advised, because you are hugely increasing your so-called "risk of ruin", and that's what we were trying to avoid. And even if your starting bet is only 100 chips, after only nine straight losses, and nine doubled bets, you are betting the table limit at 50,000 chips. If you lose that bet, you're 100,000 chips in the hole, with no way to recover that with your 100 chip base wager. So don't believe anyone that says this is the perfect system to always win in the casino. Sooner or later they will understand why they were wrong, when they're asking you for a loan. Set your limits BEFORE you start playing One final point before we get into the games, a general tip for people that head out to play: money management. Just like in real life, before you go to the casino, decide on a maximum amount that you are WILLING TO LOSE. Bet small enough, so that amount can last you through the entire evening, and you will not be tempted to run to the ATM to continue playing. Considering GTA money, some people will be comfortable losing 1% of their GTA bank balance, some people will be comfortable with gambling away 5% of their total GTA savings. It's up to you what you can handle. Decide for yourself where it will start to hurt, and don't cross that line. But whatever number you decide on, as soon as you lost that amount, get up and walk away. Don't chase your losses, stick to your limits, and accept that this has not been your day. There is always another game tomorrow. Always agree with yourself on a simple stop-loss rule, how much you would want to lose at most, and simply stop playing when you get there. Same goes for winning. You can decide on a number, how much profit you would like to take away from the casino. You can go on a hot streak and be up half a million in a short period of time, but if you would continue to play longer, looking for more, chances are that you're going to lose it all back. Most people are happy with doubling their daily casino budget, for example. Others are looking for 10 bets profit in Blackjack. Whatever you choose, when you hit that number, you can stop playing and bank your profits, or you can continue playing if you're still enjoying the games, but then only just play minimum bet sizes. Then you're just playing for fun, not for money. You've already made your profit, so simply keep it in your pocket, and don't risk losing it again. Either way, decide on what your money management strategy will be, and STICK TO IT. Casino games in GTA Online Now, I'm going to dive into the games that you can find at the Diamond casino, ordered from worst to best. 6) Slots Generally the rule is this: the less strategy a game has, the worse it is for the player. And with slots, this is definitely the case. The only influence you have, is choosing what type of machine you're going to play. Basically, there are two types of slot machines: -high frequency, low payout slots -low frequency, high payout slots In the first type, there is no huge (progressive) jackpot on offer, just your average selection of prizes that don't go up to crazy amounts. This will result in a player having many more spins resulting in a win. The amounts that you win on the bigger prizes, will be smaller, but they do come around more often. This type of slot machine has a lower variance, which means that your money should last you longer, winning many smaller prizes along the way to keep you going. The second type of slot machine lures you in with the temptation of a huge jackpot prize. Even though the long-term expected return on these machines is the same as the previous type, the prize distribution is hugely different. The large jackpot prize weighs heavily on the scale of expected return, but the chance of it hitting is extremely small. This results in a much higher variance on this type of machine. Usually your money will go down very fast, because the smaller prizes are less rewarding than on the other type of machine. At the Diamond, the info screen says the player return at slots is set at 98.7%. This means that, on average, for every maximum bet of 2,500 chips, you expect to lose 32.5 chips. This might not seem like a lot, but the danger of slots is that the game is extremely fast. You can spin about once every 6 seconds, which would result in an expected LOSS of about 20,000 chips per hour of playing. But again, in this long-term expected number, the large jackpot awards are also factored in, and as long as you don't hit those big prizes, you'll see your money go down a lot faster. In any case, thank heavens the max bet is only set at 2,500, or else we would see more players go bankrupt at alarming rates. Optimal strategy for slots: There is none. Because after betting, you have no more influence over the outcome. The only choices you have, is what type of machine you want to play at, and how much money you are going to risk. And those are all personal preference. As long as you stick to your loss limits, as discussed above, there's no harm in having a go every once in a while, hoping to get a lucky hit. Just realize that you don't have a high chance of scoring a big win, so as soon as you do, get up and walk away. 5) Roulette Roulette is also a game where you have no influence over the outcome. There is zero skill involved. You place your bet, and that's it. In traditional French roulette, a table has only the single-zero, but of course, for American casinos that wasn't enough of a house edge, so they simply doubled their profits by adding a second zero. The house edge was increased from 1/37 to 1/19, which is huge. This makes playing on a double-zero roulette table by definition a sucker's play. The payouts scale evenly, which means that a bet on a single number, and a bet on half of the numbers, and everything in between, yields the same expected return. The only difference, again, being the variance that you are willing to subject yourself to. The player return for double-zero Roulette for all bets is 94.74%. Except for the 5-number bet, which can only be made by placing a bet on the two top rows that contain 0, 00, 1, 2 and 3. The expected return on this bet is lower: 92.1%. This is because it only pays out 6-1. Why? Well, the number 36 isn't divisible by 5, so the greedy people that came up with double-zero Roulette had to round it off someway, and as expected, it wasn't going to be in the players' favor.Just remember that that 5-number bet is the worst bet at the table, and should be avoided. All other possible bets have the same expected return. So it really doesn't matter how you spread your bets, if you bet only one chip, or if you litter the entire table with a bucketload of chips. Each chip you put out there, has the same expected return, so there is no strategy that will improve your long-term results. Assuming that you're betting the maximum table amount of 50,000 chips, you will be looking at an expected loss of about 2,630 chips per spin. Considering that a round takes about 45 seconds to complete, your expected LOSS at the GTA Roulette tables will be around 200,000 chips per hour of playing. Optimal strategy for double-zero roulette: Stay away. Stay far away. 4) Three Card Poker With Three Card Poker, we come across the first game where there is actually some strategy involved. You get to look at your cards, and then decide if you want to fold, and surrender your ante, or double your bet. Additionally, you can choose to place a side bet on "Pair Plus", which offers progressive payouts. There are some websites out there that ran all the numbers with computer simulations, and even though I would like to quote the source here, these websites are understandably littered to the max with online casino ads, so that's why I have decided against doing that. Optimal strategy for Three Card Poker: For this game you only have to remember one strategy rule: Always bet on any high card queen-six-four or better, and fold any high card queen-six-three or lower. That's it. Just don't forget to double check if you're not folding a straight or a flush, and you'll be fine. This strategy will result in an expected return of 96.63%. The Pair Plus sidebet, with the payout table that is used at the Diamond casino, gives you an expected return of 97.68%, which is actually a bit better than the main ante bet. So by playing both wagers, you're reducing your expected losses per bet, but since you're betting more, you're also increasing your expected loss per hour. My advice would obviously be to not play this game at all, but if you do, put as much of your bet as possible on the Pair Plus, while making our Ante bet as small as you can. To be able to compare it to the other games at the Diamond, let's stay on that 50,000 maximum wager, meaning making your ante bet 35,000, and your pair plus bet 15,000, if the table would allow it. This results in an expected loss of about 1,525 chips per hand, and with a round taking about 45 seconds, this adds up to an expected LOSS of around 120,000 chips per hour of playing. In comparison, if you would only play the ante bet for 50,000 per hand, you expect to lose 1,685 chips per hand, which means an expected LOSS of about 135,000 chips per hour. So the more out of that 50,000 wager you can put on the "Pair Plus" sidebet, the better. Even though it may be fun to try out this game for a bit, since there's only one simple strategy rule to follow, you'll soon find yourself robotically grinding down your bankroll until it has vaporized. You're not missing out on anything if you skip these tables, there is no real challenge. Just like with Roulette and Slots, if you want to try it out nonetheless, you can just bet the minimum amounts and only play for fun, so it won't matter if you win or lose. 3) Blackjack Blackjack is the most complicated game by far. Simply because the player has to make a series of decisions, which will largely decide the outcome. Luckily, there is such a thing as an optimal strategy, which will be outlined below. However, the strategy is also dependent on the house rules. These not only affect your expected return, but in some places also your decisions. Here are the house rules at the Diamond casino: -The game uses 4 standard decks, and a continuous shuffle. -Blackjack pays 3 to 2, dealer checks for early blackjack. -No insurance offered, no surrender. -Dealer stands on soft 17. -Double down on any two cards. -Player can split only once, but doubling after split is allowed. -Seven-Card Charlie. Under these rules, and following the "basic strategy" chart, your expected return at Blackjack is a shade under 99.6%, which is extremely good for a casino game, that's why Blackjack should be your table game of choice. But it comes at a price: you are going to have to memorize the relatively complicated strategy chart, or at least stick it to your monitor until you have it in your head. But in case you ever stumble into a real-life casino, you won't regret having this table memorized, so I would definitely advise you to work on that. The strategy chart might look complicated at first, but you will be able to notice certain patterns. Your decisions are mainly based on the dealer's upcard, which is basically divided into a weak card (2 to 6), and a strong card (7 to ace). When a dealer shows a strong card, you will be hitting more often with the risk of going bust, but when a dealer shows a weak card, you're not taking that risk, and you will be standing more, but also doubling and splitting more. You want to increase your bets when the odds are in your favor, and get out cheap when they're not. But it also helps to take some time to think about why a certain advice is given. For example, why does it say that you always have to split two eights, even against an ace. Well, that's because two eights equals 16, which is the worst total you can have. It's better to split them up, and give yourself a chance of finding a 17, 18 or 19 with the next card. Once you see the logic in that, you'll have one less thing to memorize. The playing advice in the basic strategy chart is a result of computer simulations that ran all possible outcomes against each other, and produced the most profitable decision for each situation. So you can't go wrong following it. Optimal strategy for Blackjack with Seven-Card Charlie The added house rule of Seven-Card Charlie, adds a small advantage for the player, and it does influence a few strategy decisions. For example, you might have a 14 with 6 cards, against the dealer's 5 upcard. Normally this would be an automatic stand, but if you're only one card away from the Seven-Card Charlie, meaning an instant win for the player, regardless of the dealer's hand, it turns it into a hit. Here's the most optimal strategy chart to follow for the Diamond Casino house rules: https://prnt.sc/olct6g You'll see that two fives are missing from the chart, and that's because you never split them. You treat them as a regular 10. You also never split tens. Just stand on 20. If you follow this strategy religiously, even with a maximum wager of 50,000 chips, you only expect to lose about 215 chips per hand, and with rounds taking about 30 seconds, that amounts to an expected LOSS of 26,000 chips per hour, which is only half a bet. A small price to pay for an hour of entertainment. But since the expected return is so extremely close to 100%, you will see more positive short-term results than with other games. But obviously it can also swing the other way. Again, this is supposed to be the game where your money lasts you the longest, but always set your loss and win limits before you sit down. That rule simply always applies. Still, even with optimal strategies applied, all these games are expected to lose you money in the long run. So betting any kind of large amounts is not advised. If you simply want to enjoy playing these games, there's nothing wrong with betting a minimal amount. Playing these games for a longer period of time will already cost you money anyway, since your daily property fees will still be charged while you're playing in the GTA casino. As long as you can play for fun, there's nothing wrong, but when you see yourself betting insane chunks of your entire bank balance to try to recoup some unfortunate losses, you're doing it wrong. As the commercials in Britain all correctly say: when the fun stops, stop. 2) Virtual Horse Racing Now onto the good stuff. I ran some numbers, and I believe Rockstar has made a mistake with the horse racing game. Because as it stands, and if I read the numbers correctly, this game is actually profitable for the player. You can actually make money with this, at least, until Rockstar figures out their mistake and patches it. If anyone wants to jump into the math and double check this to make sure, please do so. I will add any corrections to this post. This is one of those "to good to be true" things, so I keep thinking that I might have overlooked something. So please verify it if you can. The setup is this. There is a pool of 100 horses, each with their own attached payout. These are divided into 3 groups, ranked by their odds. From each group, 2 horses are randomly selected to provide a pool of six runners for you to bet on. Now it's not an actual race you're looking at. You are looking at a raffle. This is important to realize. Each horse gets awarded a certain number of raffle tickets. The favorites get awarded more tickets than the underdogs, and therefore, have a higher chance of winning. If this distribution works like it does in the real-life casinos, then the raffle tickets are awarded according to the betting odds. Example 1: imagine a race with 3 runners, all have 2/1 odds, representing a 33.3% chance of winning. (Because 2/1 means 2 AGAINST 1, so 3 total.) In this case, each horse gets one third of the raffle tickets, giving them an equal chance to win. Example 2: imagine a race with 3 runners, one has 1/1 odds (or EVENS), representing a 50% chance of winning, and the other two horses are marked up as 3/1, with a 25% chance of winning. The favorite gets half the tickets, the other two get a quarter of the tickets each. A ticket is drawn, and you'll have a winner. It doesn't matter in this game which horse you bet on, because the expected return is always the same: 100% or break-even, for the above examples. Now, what happens if the percentages don't exactly add up to 100%? They must add up to 100%, because there will always be a winner. And only one winner. So when this is the case, the actual winning chances of the horses are adjusted to meet the 100% requirement, using their payout odds to determine the scale. So, if the represented percentages add up to more than 100%, the actual winning chances of the runners will be DECREASED, resulting in all bets becoming losing propositions for the players. Example: In a 6-horse race, all runners are listed at 4/1, representing a 20% chance. Only with six runners that amounts to 120%. So all chances are scaled down by 1/6th, to end up at 100%. This means your horse's chances are reduced from 20% to 16.67%, turning it into a losing bet: 5 times you will lose your bet, and 1 time you will win, but only get 4 bets back in this instance, instead of 5. A losing bet in the long run. This is the type of odds that you find in regular casinos, with fields as large as 15 runners to bet on, where the assumed winning chances always add up to more than 100%, therefore are decreased for all runners, resulting in a house edge. But in GTA Online's Inside Track, there are other scenarios, because of the small field, and the way that they are put together. In some cases, the represented percentages when added up, are LESS than 100%, meaning that the actual winning chances of all runners, are INCREASED. This creates profitable bets for the players, because in the long run, you're expecting to win more money than you lose. This is a gambler's dream, pure and simple. So, according to the in-game information, the three groups of horses are divided as follows: -Favorites: EVENS to 5-1 -Outsiders: 6-1 to 15-1 -Underdogs: 16-1 to 30-1 Let's take the two most extreme examples to show what's happening. The worst possible field to bet on: two runners at EVENS, two runners at 6-1, and two runners at 16-1. EVENS represents a 50% chance, 6-1 is 14.29%, and 16-1 is 5.88%. Add those up and you land on a total of 140.34%. This means that the actual winning chances of the horses are decreased by 28.75% (to get that 140% down to 100%), which makes betting on this field extremely unwise. A horse at EVENS will only come in as a winner 35.63% of the time, instead of 50%, a horse at 6-1 will only win 10.18% of the time, and an underdog at 16-1 will only win 4.19% of the time. The expected return on a bet on any of the horses in this field is only 71.26%, so a maximum bet of 10,000 chips on any of these horses holds an expected LOSS of 2,875 chips. These returns are the same, because the winning chances are scaled equally, according to the payout numbers. So it really doesn't matter which horse you bet on, in the long run, you expect the same results. But as explained before, it does influence variance, and therefore your short-term result, which can swing both ways. But now, the best possible field to bet on: two runners at 5-1, two runners at 15-1, and two runners at 30-1. Odds at 5-1 represents a winning chance of 16.67%, 15-1 odds means 6.25% chance, and 30-1 odds means a 3.23% chance of winning. Add these six horses together, and you only get 52.285%. This means that, to get from 52% to 100%, the actual winning chances of these horses will be almost doubled! Multiplied by 1.91 to be exact. So the 5-1 favorites will now win 31.88% of the time, instead of 16.67%, the 15-1 runners will win 11.95% of the time, and the underdogs at 30-1 odds will still win 6.17% of the time. When betting on this field, the expected return on your bet is 191.25%! This means that a max bet of 10,000 chips will result in an expected PROFIT of 9,125 chips. This is printing money, if there ever was such a thing. Optimal strategy for Virtual Horse racing So all you have to do, is only bet high on the games where you have an expected positive return, and bet the absolute minimum on the games where your expected return is negative. Or back out of the racing game to refresh the field. If you don't have a way to quickly add up all the percentages, and until somebody shows up here with a neatly formatted table, just use a few general rules of thumb: -Always bet the maximum on a race with favorites at 2/1 and 3/1 or higher in it. -Simply skip all races with two favorites at EVENS in it, and at EVENS and 2/1. Or bet the minimum, if you can't skip or refresh the field. -To decide if you should play races with other favorite combinations EVENS and 3/1, EVENS and 4/1, EVENS and 5/1, or two favorites at 2/1, the payouts on the other four runners determine whether or not it's profitable to play them. The results of betting on these fields vary from an expected 1,330 chip loss (worst-case) to an expected 1,680 chip win (best-case), with a max bet of 10,000 chips. But if you're not looking for another strategy chart, you might just want to skip these borderline cases, and just cherry pick the best ones, which are easy to recognize, and with which you can never go wrong. It's difficult to put a number on an expected win-rate, because it all depends on which fields you get presented with, but it's not unreasonable to state that you can maintain a steady win-rate of around 200,000 chips per hour, with about 50 seconds per race. Remember, you're not trying to win every race. You're trying to win the most money per hour. So don't sweat it when you bet on a 4/1 favorite, and lose a couple of races in a row. It will still be more profitable in the long run. You have the math on your side. To reduce negative variance, always bet on the favorite, when betting on profitable fields. We're not gambling anymore, we're grinding out a steady profit. We want to keep the swings to a minimum. I contacted Rockstar support to verify if this is indeed how it works, but the only reply I got after 6 weeks is that they were "looking into it". User u/Garsant made a useful Excel-worksheet, available for you to download, where you can quickly type in the payouts on the horses, to see if it produces a profitable bet or not. You can find it in his post here: https://www.reddit.com/gtaonline/comments/ekp8na/gta_online_inside_track_odd_calculato 1) Wheel of Fortune The number one profitable casino game in GTA Online is obviously the Wheel of Fortune, because it costs you nothing to play. Unfortunately, you only get one free spin per day, but it holds great value, so make sure you do it. With a chance to win a super car, vehicle discounts, expensive mystery prizes (which also can be vehicles), and a lot of cash and chips, the expected return on a single spin is around $100,000 in value. So don't forget your daily spin, it's definitely worth your time. 2020 Update: As of the Diamond Casino Heist update, the Inside Track horse racing is confirmed to still be as profitable as outlined above.The only thing that seems to be changed, is that you can't refresh the field anymore by backing out of the screen. This does affect your hourly rate in a negative way, but does not change the fact that this game has a huge positive expected return, and should be your go-to when you're trying to take money from the house, without having Lester's nagging voice in your ear. That should also be worth something. And with that, I conclude my 5,000 word essay on gambling in GTA. Questions, comments, feel free to add your input to this guide. Cliffs: -Gambling games should only be played for fun, not for big money. You should expect to lose in the long run. The house always wins. -A casino game doesn't have a memory, and betting systems don't work. -Set your limits before you start, how much you are willing to lose or win, and then walk away when you get there. -Don't play slots, roulette, or three card poker. -Only play blackjack following a basic strategy chart (https://prnt.sc/olct6g). -Inside Track betting can be played profitably, if you only bet on fields WITHOUT a heavy favorite. -Wheel of Fortune is always your best bet, because it's a free bet.
Ultimate Gambling Guide for GTA Online - odds, probabilities, and optimal strategies
This is not mine, the creator of this is u/enderpiet Since the Diamond Casino update, I have seen a large number of 12-year-olds posting Blackjack memes on this sub. As a parent, this has me very worried. On top of that, I have seen some of the most trustworthy GTA Youtubers giving flawed gambling advice, which can have damaging impact on their gullible audiences. So that's why I decided to write this up, to educate everyone on the subject, so there will be no more misunderstandings. (2020 Update down at the bottom.) If you're one of those Youtubers that wants to use this information in a video, feel free to do so. The more people (especially kids) that become educated about gambling, the better. But then also please go back and review your own work, and delete or edit the videos that are giving out the wrong advice, like where you're saying you have "a good strategy for making money with roulette", or some other nonsense that I've heard this week. Delete that please. Before I get into the individual games, I need to discuss a few concepts first, that will make understanding the rest a lot easier. Expected return and variance A game like Roulette or Slots has a fixed expected return on your bets. This is a percentage that you have no way of influencing. Say you are flipping a coin against a friend, and you both put up $1. The winner gets the pot. Since the odds are even at 50%, in the long run, you will expect to break even. Your expected return is 100% of your bet. But imagine if you would play this coin flipping game in a casino against the house. On the "house rules" listed at the table they would probably say that you would only get 95 cents back for every win, while you are forfeiting a dollar on every loss. Would you still play? Sounds stupid to do so, but still, everybody does it. Every bet they place on Roulette, every coin they put into a Slot machine, is based on the same concept. Those few cents they take on every bet are their profit margin, and has paid for all the Vegas lights, the Mirage volcanoes, and the Bellagio fountains. Make no mistake - casino gambling games are not designed to make you lose, because sure, you can get lucky on a single night, but they are designed to make them win. That's the beauty of it. They can both exist at the same time. Too many people that don't see how this works, are just destined for disaster. Just because you went on a lucky streak and won 8 games out of 10, does not mean that flipping coins is a profitable game, or that choosing tails is a winning strategy. Always be aware of the house edge, your true chances of winning, and just realize that you got lucky. There is no such thing as a strategy in flipping a coin that will give you a higher expected return, so it's just pure gambling, just like Slots and Roulette. Most casino games are made in such a way, that your expected return is a little under 100%. This means that from every dollar bet at the tables, the casino expects to keep a few cents. For individual players, results may vary. Some will win, most will lose. But for the house, it doesn't matter. They take millions of bets each day, so for them, the expected average works out a lot sooner. In short: the house always wins. When looking at the house edge, we're talking about the expected long-term result, based on the game's house rules. But for a player, it can take literally tens of thousands of hands or spins before you also reach this average number. Until that time, you can experience huge upswings and downswings, that are the result of nothing but short-term luck, which is called variance. Some games and some bets have a much higher variance than others, which means your actual results will differ enormously from what you're expected to be at. Take for example betting on red/black at the Roulette table. This is a low-variance proposition, because it has a high percentage chance of occurring, and a low payout. Contrast this with betting single numbers in Roulette, which only win once every 38 spins on average. This bet has a much higher variance, meaning you can easily hit a dry spell, and not hit anything for 200 bets in a row, or you can see a single number hit three times in five consecutive spins. This is not a freak occurrence in high-variance bets. Even though the expected return in both these bets is exactly the same, there's a huge difference in variance, causing massive differences in short-term results, which can go both ways. You need to be aware of this, before you decide what types of bets you are comfortable with placing. Gamblers' Fallacy Another thing to realize, is that each individual game, hand, or spin, is completely independent from the one(s) before it, and after it. Gamblers tend to believe, that the chance of a certain outcome is increased, based on previous results. The most famous example comes from the Casino de Monte Carlo, where the Roulette wheel managed to land on black 26 times in a row. Gamblers lost many millions during that streak, all frantically betting on red, believing that the odds were in favor of the wheel coming out on red, after producing so many blacks. This is not true. Each round is completely independent, and the odds are exactly the same. You will hear people say things like a Blackjack table being "hot" or "cold", which is completely superstitious, and should be ignored. The exception was when Blackjack was being dealt from a shoe. It made card counting possible. But with the introduction of shuffle machines, and continuous shuffling like is being used in GTA, this no longer exists. This is also why "chasing your losses" is a very bad idea. After being on a losing streak for some time, many gamblers believe that now it's their turn to start winning. So they will often increase their bet size, believing that when their predicted winning streak comes around, they will win back their losses, and more. The reality of it, more often than not, is that people will indeed start playing higher and higher limits, until they are completely broke. Nobody is ever "due for a win". There is never a guarantee that you're about to start winning. In fact, the opposite is more likely to be true. You are, after all, in a casino. Betting systems Some people like to think that they have a fool-proof betting system, like the Martingale system. Simply increase or even double your bet when you lose, and keep doing that until you win. In theory, this system will always win. So that's why table limits were introduced, and where the system fails. If you start at the Roulette table, playing red/black, with a small 750 chip wager, and just double your bet every time you lose, you only have to lose 6 times in a row, before you will be betting the table limit of 48,000, just to get that 750 chip profit. Sure, you can go on all evening without this happening, winning 750 chips each time, but this losing streak only has to happen once, and you're bust. Any betting system like this is ill-advised, because you are hugely increasing your so-called "risk of ruin", and that's what we were trying to avoid. And even if your starting bet is only 100 chips, after only nine straight losses, and nine doubled bets, you are betting the table limit at 50,000 chips. If you lose that bet, you're 100,000 chips in the hole, with no way to recover that with your 100 chip base wager. So don't believe anyone that says this is the perfect system to always win in the casino. Sooner or later they will understand why they were wrong, when they're asking you for a loan. Set your limits BEFORE you start playing One final point before we get into the games, a general tip for people that head out to play: money management. Just like in real life, before you go to the casino, decide on a maximum amount that you are WILLING TO LOSE. Bet small enough, so that amount can last you through the entire evening, and you will not be tempted to run to the ATM to continue playing. Considering GTA money, some people will be comfortable losing 1% of their GTA bank balance, some people will be comfortable with gambling away 5% of their total GTA savings. It's up to you what you can handle. Decide for yourself where it will start to hurt, and don't cross that line. But whatever number you decide on, as soon as you lost that amount, get up and walk away. Don't chase your losses, stick to your limits, and accept that this has not been your day. There is always another game tomorrow. Always agree with yourself on a simple stop-loss rule, how much you would want to lose at most, and simply stop playing when you get there. Same goes for winning. You can decide on a number, how much profit you would like to take away from the casino. You can go on a hot streak and be up half a million in a short period of time, but if you would continue to play longer, looking for more, chances are that you're going to lose it all back. Most people are happy with doubling their daily casino budget, for example. Others are looking for 10 bets profit in Blackjack. Whatever you choose, when you hit that number, you can stop playing and bank your profits, or you can continue playing if you're still enjoying the games, but then only just play minimum bet sizes. Then you're just playing for fun, not for money. You've already made your profit, so simply keep it in your pocket, and don't risk losing it again. Either way, decide on what your money management strategy will be, and STICK TO IT. Casino games in GTA Online Now, I'm going to dive into the games that you can find at the Diamond casino, ordered from worst to best. 6) Slots Generally the rule is this: the less strategy a game has, the worse it is for the player. And with slots, this is definitely the case. The only influence you have, is choosing what type of machine you're going to play. Basically, there are two types of slot machines: -high frequency, low payout slots -low frequency, high payout slots In the first type, there is no huge (progressive) jackpot on offer, just your average selection of prizes that don't go up to crazy amounts. This will result in a player having many more spins resulting in a win. The amounts that you win on the bigger prizes, will be smaller, but they do come around more often. This type of slot machine has a lower variance, which means that your money should last you longer, winning many smaller prizes along the way to keep you going. The second type of slot machine lures you in with the temptation of a huge jackpot prize. Even though the long-term expected return on these machines is the same as the previous type, the prize distribution is hugely different. The large jackpot prize weighs heavily on the scale of expected return, but the chance of it hitting is extremely small. This results in a much higher variance on this type of machine. Usually your money will go down very fast, because the smaller prizes are less rewarding than on the other type of machine. At the Diamond, the info screen says the player return at slots is set at 98.7%. This means that, on average, for every maximum bet of 2,500 chips, you expect to lose 32.5 chips. This might not seem like a lot, but the danger of slots is that the game is extremely fast. You can spin about once every 6 seconds, which would result in an expected LOSS of about 20,000 chips per hour of playing. But again, in this long-term expected number, the large jackpot awards are also factored in, and as long as you don't hit those big prizes, you'll see your money go down a lot faster. In any case, thank heavens the max bet is only set at 2,500, or else we would see more players go bankrupt at alarming rates. Optimal strategy for slots: There is none. Because after betting, you have no more influence over the outcome. The only choices you have, is what type of machine you want to play at, and how much money you are going to risk. And those are all personal preference. As long as you stick to your loss limits, as discussed above, there's no harm in having a go every once in a while, hoping to get a lucky hit. Just realize that you don't have a high chance of scoring a big win, so as soon as you do, get up and walk away. 5) Roulette Roulette is also a game where you have no influence over the outcome. There is zero skill involved. You place your bet, and that's it. In traditional French roulette, a table has only the single-zero, but of course, for American casinos that wasn't enough of a house edge, so they simply doubled their profits by adding a second zero. The house edge was increased from 1/37 to 1/19, which is huge. This makes playing on a double-zero roulette table by definition a sucker's play. The payouts scale evenly, which means that a bet on a single number, and a bet on half of the numbers, and everything in between, yields the same expected return. The only difference, again, being the variance that you are willing to subject yourself to. The player return for double-zero Roulette for all bets is 94.74%. Except for the 5-number bet, which can only be made by placing a bet on the two top rows that contain 0, 00, 1, 2 and 3. The expected return on this bet is lower: 92.1%. This is because it only pays out 6-1. Why? Well, the number 36 isn't divisible by 5, so the greedy people that came up with double-zero Roulette had to round it off someway, and as expected, it wasn't going to be in the players' favor.Just remember that that 5-number bet is the worst bet at the table, and should be avoided. All other possible bets have the same expected return. So it really doesn't matter how you spread your bets, if you bet only one chip, or if you litter the entire table with a bucketload of chips. Each chip you put out there, has the same expected return, so there is no strategy that will improve your long-term results. Assuming that you're betting the maximum table amount of 50,000 chips, you will be looking at an expected loss of about 2,630 chips per spin. Considering that a round takes about 45 seconds to complete, your expected LOSS at the GTA Roulette tables will be around 200,000 chips per hour of playing. Optimal strategy for double-zero roulette: Stay away. Stay far away. 4) Three Card Poker With Three Card Poker, we come across the first game where there is actually some strategy involved. You get to look at your cards, and then decide if you want to fold, and surrender your ante, or double your bet. Additionally, you can choose to place a side bet on "Pair Plus", which offers progressive payouts. There are some websites out there that ran all the numbers with computer simulations, and even though I would like to quote the source here, these websites are understandably littered to the max with online casino ads, so that's why I have decided against doing that. Optimal strategy for Three Card Poker: For this game you only have to remember one strategy rule: Always bet on any high card queen-six-four or better, and fold any high card queen-six-three or lower. That's it. Just don't forget to double check if you're not folding a straight or a flush, and you'll be fine. This strategy will result in an expected return of 96.63%. The Pair Plus sidebet, with the payout table that is used at the Diamond casino, gives you an expected return of 97.68%, which is actually a bit better than the main ante bet. So by playing both wagers, you're reducing your expected losses per bet, but since you're betting more, you're also increasing your expected loss per hour. My advice would obviously be to not play this game at all, but if you do, put as much of your bet as possible on the Pair Plus, while making our Ante bet as small as you can. To be able to compare it to the other games at the Diamond, let's stay on that 50,000 maximum wager, meaning making your ante bet 35,000, and your pair plus bet 15,000, if the table would allow it. This results in an expected loss of about 1,525 chips per hand, and with a round taking about 45 seconds, this adds up to an expected LOSS of around 120,000 chips per hour of playing. In comparison, if you would only play the ante bet for 50,000 per hand, you expect to lose 1,685 chips per hand, which means an expected LOSS of about 135,000 chips per hour. So the more out of that 50,000 wager you can put on the "Pair Plus" sidebet, the better. Even though it may be fun to try out this game for a bit, since there's only one simple strategy rule to follow, you'll soon find yourself robotically grinding down your bankroll until it has vaporized. You're not missing out on anything if you skip these tables, there is no real challenge. Just like with Roulette and Slots, if you want to try it out nonetheless, you can just bet the minimum amounts and only play for fun, so it won't matter if you win or lose. 3) Blackjack Blackjack is the most complicated game by far. Simply because the player has to make a series of decisions, which will largely decide the outcome. Luckily, there is such a thing as an optimal strategy, which will be outlined below. However, the strategy is also dependent on the house rules. These not only affect your expected return, but in some places also your decisions. Here are the house rules at the Diamond casino: -The game uses 4 standard decks, and a continuous shuffle. -Blackjack pays 3 to 2, dealer checks for early blackjack. -No insurance offered, no surrender. -Dealer stands on soft 17. -Double down on any two cards. -Player can split only once, but doubling after split is allowed. -Seven-Card Charlie. Under these rules, and following the "basic strategy" chart, your expected return at Blackjack is a shade under 99.6%, which is extremely good for a casino game, that's why Blackjack should be your table game of choice. But it comes at a price: you are going to have to memorize the relatively complicated strategy chart, or at least stick it to your monitor until you have it in your head. But in case you ever stumble into a real-life casino, you won't regret having this table memorized, so I would definitely advise you to work on that. The strategy chart might look complicated at first, but you will be able to notice certain patterns. Your decisions are mainly based on the dealer's upcard, which is basically divided into a weak card (2 to 6), and a strong card (7 to ace). When a dealer shows a strong card, you will be hitting more often with the risk of going bust, but when a dealer shows a weak card, you're not taking that risk, and you will be standing more, but also doubling and splitting more. You want to increase your bets when the odds are in your favor, and get out cheap when they're not. But it also helps to take some time to think about why a certain advice is given. For example, why does it say that you always have to split two eights, even against an ace. Well, that's because two eights equals 16, which is the worst total you can have. It's better to split them up, and give yourself a chance of finding a 17, 18 or 19 with the next card. Once you see the logic in that, you'll have one less thing to memorize. The playing advice in the basic strategy chart is a result of computer simulations that ran all possible outcomes against each other, and produced the most profitable decision for each situation. So you can't go wrong following it. Optimal strategy for Blackjack with Seven-Card Charlie The added house rule of Seven-Card Charlie, adds a small advantage for the player, and it does influence a few strategy decisions. For example, you might have a 14 with 6 cards, against the dealer's 5 upcard. Normally this would be an automatic stand, but if you're only one card away from the Seven-Card Charlie, meaning an instant win for the player, regardless of the dealer's hand, it turns it into a hit. Here's the most optimal strategy chart to follow for the Diamond Casino house rules:https://prnt.sc/olct6g You'll see that two fives are missing from the chart, and that's because you never split them. You treat them as a regular 10. You also never split tens. Just stand on 20. If you follow this strategy religiously, even with a maximum wager of 50,000 chips, you only expect to lose about 215 chips per hand, and with rounds taking about 30 seconds, that amounts to an expected LOSS of 26,000 chips per hour, which is only half a bet. A small price to pay for an hour of entertainment. But since the expected return is so extremely close to 100%, you will see more positive short-term results than with other games. But obviously it can also swing the other way. Again, this is supposed to be the game where your money lasts you the longest, but always set your loss and win limits before you sit down. That rule simply always applies. Still, even with optimal strategies applied, all these games are expected to lose you money in the long run. So betting any kind of large amounts is not advised. If you simply want to enjoy playing these games, there's nothing wrong with betting a minimal amount. Playing these games for a longer period of time will already cost you money anyway, since your daily property fees will still be charged while you're playing in the GTA casino. As long as you can play for fun, there's nothing wrong, but when you see yourself betting insane chunks of your entire bank balance to try to recoup some unfortunate losses, you're doing it wrong. As the commercials in Britain all correctly say: when the fun stops, stop. 2) Virtual Horse Racing Now onto the good stuff. I ran some numbers, and I believe Rockstar has made a mistake with the horse racing game. Because as it stands, and if I read the numbers correctly, this game is actually profitable for the player. You can actually make money with this, at least, until Rockstar figures out their mistake and patches it. If anyone wants to jump into the math and double check this to make sure, please do so. I will add any corrections to this post. This is one of those "to good to be true" things, so I keep thinking that I might have overlooked something. So please verify it if you can. The setup is this. There is a pool of 100 horses, each with their own attached payout. These are divided into 3 groups, ranked by their odds. From each group, 2 horses are randomly selected to provide a pool of six runners for you to bet on. Now it's not an actual race you're looking at. You are looking at a raffle. This is important to realize. Each horse gets awarded a certain number of raffle tickets. The favorites get awarded more tickets than the underdogs, and therefore, have a higher chance of winning. If this distribution works like it does in the real-life casinos, then the raffle tickets are awarded according to the betting odds. Example 1: imagine a race with 3 runners, all have 2/1 odds, representing a 33.3% chance of winning. (Because 2/1 means 2 AGAINST 1, so 3 total.) In this case, each horse gets one third of the raffle tickets, giving them an equal chance to win. Example 2: imagine a race with 3 runners, one has 1/1 odds (or EVENS), representing a 50% chance of winning, and the other two horses are marked up as 3/1, with a 25% chance of winning. The favorite gets half the tickets, the other two get a quarter of the tickets each. A ticket is drawn, and you'll have a winner. It doesn't matter in this game which horse you bet on, because the expected return is always the same: 100% or break-even, for the above examples. Now, what happens if the percentages don't exactly add up to 100%? They must add up to 100%, because there will always be a winner. And only one winner. So when this is the case, the actual winning chances of the horses are adjusted to meet the 100% requirement, using their payout odds to determine the scale. So, if the represented percentages add up to more than 100%, the actual winning chances of the runners will be DECREASED, resulting in all bets becoming losing propositions for the players. Example: In a 6-horse race, all runners are listed at 4/1, representing a 20% chance. Only with six runners that amounts to 120%. So all chances are scaled down by 1/6th, to end up at 100%. This means your horse's chances are reduced from 20% to 16.67%, turning it into a losing bet: 5 times you will lose your bet, and 1 time you will win, but only get 4 bets back in this instance, instead of 5. A losing bet in the long run. This is the type of odds that you find in regular casinos, with fields as large as 15 runners to bet on, where the assumed winning chances always add up to more than 100%, therefore are decreased for all runners, resulting in a house edge. But in GTA Online's Inside Track, there are other scenarios, because of the small field, and the way that they are put together. In some cases, the represented percentages when added up, are LESS than 100%, meaning that the actual winning chances of all runners, are INCREASED. This creates profitable bets for the players, because in the long run, you're expecting to win more money than you lose. This is a gambler's dream, pure and simple. So, according to the in-game information, the three groups of horses are divided as follows: -Favorites: EVENS to 5-1 -Outsiders: 6-1 to 15-1 -Underdogs: 16-1 to 30-1 Let's take the two most extreme examples to show what's happening. The worst possible field to bet on: two runners at EVENS, two runners at 6-1, and two runners at 16-1. EVENS represents a 50% chance, 6-1 is 14.29%, and 16-1 is 5.88%. Add those up and you land on a total of 140.34%. This means that the actual winning chances of the horses are decreased by 28.75% (to get that 140% down to 100%), which makes betting on this field extremely unwise. A horse at EVENS will only come in as a winner 35.63% of the time, instead of 50%, a horse at 6-1 will only win 10.18% of the time, and an underdog at 16-1 will only win 4.19% of the time. The expected return on a bet on any of the horses in this field is only 71.26%, so a maximum bet of 10,000 chips on any of these horses holds an expected LOSS of 2,875 chips. These returns are the same, because the winning chances are scaled equally, according to the payout numbers. So it really doesn't matter which horse you bet on, in the long run, you expect the same results. But as explained before, it does influence variance, and therefore your short-term result, which can swing both ways. But now, the best possible field to bet on: two runners at 5-1, two runners at 15-1, and two runners at 30-1. Odds at 5-1 represents a winning chance of 16.67%, 15-1 odds means 6.25% chance, and 30-1 odds means a 3.23% chance of winning. Add these six horses together, and you only get 52.285%. This means that, to get from 52% to 100%, the actual winning chances of these horses will be almost doubled! Multiplied by 1.91 to be exact. So the 5-1 favorites will now win 31.88% of the time, instead of 16.67%, the 15-1 runners will win 11.95% of the time, and the underdogs at 30-1 odds will still win 6.17% of the time. When betting on this field, the expected return on your bet is 191.25%! This means that a max bet of 10,000 chips will result in an expected PROFIT of 9,125 chips. This is printing money, if there ever was such a thing. Optimal strategy for Virtual Horse racing So all you have to do, is only bet high on the games where you have an expected positive return, and bet the absolute minimum on the games where your expected return is negative. Or back out of the racing game to refresh the field. If you don't have a way to quickly add up all the percentages, and until somebody shows up here with a neatly formatted table, just use a few general rules of thumb: -Always bet the maximum on a race with favorites at 2/1 and 3/1 or higher in it. -Simply skip all races with two favorites at EVENS in it, and at EVENS and 2/1. Or bet the minimum, if you can't skip or refresh the field. -To decide if you should play races with other favorite combinations EVENS and 3/1, EVENS and 4/1, EVENS and 5/1, or two favorites at 2/1, the payouts on the other four runners determine whether or not it's profitable to play them. The results of betting on these fields vary from an expected 1,330 chip loss (worst-case) to an expected 1,680 chip win (best-case), with a max bet of 10,000 chips. But if you're not looking for another strategy chart, you might just want to skip these borderline cases, and just cherry pick the best ones, which are easy to recognize, and with which you can never go wrong. It's difficult to put a number on an expected win-rate, because it all depends on which fields you get presented with, but it's not unreasonable to state that you can maintain a steady win-rate of around 200,000 chips per hour, with about 50 seconds per race. Remember, you're not trying to win every race. You're trying to win the most money per hour. So don't sweat it when you bet on a 4/1 favorite, and lose a couple of races in a row. It will still be more profitable in the long run. You have the math on your side. To reduce negative variance, always bet on the favorite, when betting on profitable fields. We're not gambling anymore, we're grinding out a steady profit. We want to keep the swings to a minimum. I contacted Rockstar support to verify if this is indeed how it works, but the only reply I got after 6 weeks is that they were "looking into it". User u/Garsant made a useful Excel-worksheet, available for you to download, where you can quickly type in the payouts on the horses, to see if it produces a profitable bet or not. You can find it in his post here: https://www.reddit.com/gtaonline/comments/ekp8na/gta_online_inside_track_odd_calculato 1) Wheel of Fortune The number one profitable casino game in GTA Online is obviously the Wheel of Fortune, because it costs you nothing to play. Unfortunately, you only get one free spin per day, but it holds great value, so make sure you do it. With a chance to win a super car, vehicle discounts, expensive mystery prizes (which also can be vehicles), and a lot of cash and chips, the expected return on a single spin is around $100,000 in value. So don't forget your daily spin, it's definitely worth your time. 2020 Update: As of the Diamond Casino Heist update, the Inside Track horse racing is confirmed to still be as profitable as outlined above.The only thing that seems to be changed, is that you can't refresh the field anymore by backing out of the screen. This does affect your hourly rate in a negative way, but does not change the fact that this game has a huge positive expected return, and should be your go-to when you're trying to take money from the house, without having Lester's nagging voice in your ear. That should also be worth something. And with that, I conclude my 5,000 word essay on gambling in GTA. Questions, comments, feel free to add your input to this guide. Cliffs: -Gambling games should only be played for fun, not for big money. You should expect to lose in the long run. The house always wins. -A casino game doesn't have a memory, and betting systems don't work. -Set your limits before you start, how much you are willing to lose or win, and then walk away when you get there. -Don't play slots, roulette, or three card poker. -Only play blackjack following a basic strategy chart (https://prnt.sc/olct6g). -Inside Track betting can be played profitably, if you only bet on fields WITHOUT a heavy favorite. -Wheel of Fortune is always your best bet, because it's a free bet.
Lizardfolk are the cold-blooded hunters of the swamp, hunting humans for their delicious flesh - Lore & History
These scaly, emotionless lizards think about food and not much else beyond that. They’ve been around since the beginning of the game, starting as one of the stronger humanoid foes your fighter or magic-user would run into and promptly be eaten by. As the editions progressed the Lizardfolk became a player race. In our mythos, Lizardfolk of one sort or another has existed since ancient times. The mythical first king of Athens, Cecrops I, was described as half-man, half-snake, Wahuang, also known as Nuwa, is the mother of Chinese mythology and is described as half-human and half-serpent, and the ancient Egyptians had the patron goddess Wadjet, depicted as a snake-headed woman, a snake, a woman with two snakeheads, or even a snake with a woman's head. In the present day, Lizardfolk abound in TV, cinema, and literature. Dracs, one of the main characters in the book Enemy Mine (1979), is a fighter pilot from the alien race of lizard people at war with Earth, it was later made into a movie starring Dennis Quaid and Louis Gossett Jr back in 1985… it bombed except in the Soviet Union. There’s the Cardassians from Star Trek, Dracoians from Doctor Who, The Lizard - also known as Dr. Curt Connors - an enemy of Spiderman, Cobra Commander from GI Joe…the list goes on and on. There’s even the conspiracy theory believed by millions, that Lizardfolk secretly runs the United States government. It’s no wonder that Lizardfolk have such a prevalent existence in Dungeons & Dragons when the cultures of ancient and current civilizations are so full of them and their representations. Let’s jump in and see how these creatures have evolved through the generations and maybe you’ll find a soft spot for these man-eating Lizardfolk… or you’ll find out your pet leopard gecko is secretly running the US Commerce Department.
OD&D - Lizardmen
No. Appearing: 10-40 Armor Class: 5 Move: 6”/12” Hit Dice: 2 + 1 % in Lair: 40% No. of Attacks: 2 claws / 1 bite Damage/Attack: 1-3/claw, 1-8/bite Treasure: D
The Lizardfolk make their debut in the Greyhawk Supplement (1974) under the moniker of Lizardmen. While the term Lizardmen is used up until the 3rd edition, we will be referring to them as Lizardfolk from here on out. One of the most important facts about the Lizardfolk we should bring up from this edition is the fact that their artwork actually looks like time was spent drawing it out, and is pretty scary. If we were walking through a swamp and stumbled on one, we’d scream and run away. That’s high praise seeing as how the beholder art just makes you pass out from laughter. As with all creatures in the early editions of the game, the description is brief and all the information we are provided is composed in 3 sentences. What information is provided is pretty sparse and doesn’t provide much of a basis to work off of. The few things we learn is that Lizardfolk are considered to be intelligent, but its referred to as a ‘rude intelligence’ in that they only use that intelligence to make weapons. After that, we then learn that the favorite dish of the Lizardfolk is human flesh. We aren't sure what it is with all these monsters and their desire for human flesh, but apparently we are incredibly delicious. Not only do Lizardfolk love eating humans, they will capture a group of them from a village and bring them back to their lairs where they will hold large feasts and gorge on our flesh which… feels like a compliment. The next tidbit of information provided shows that maybe these are really, really special lizards… or maybe the designers of the game just did not know that much about lizards. In this edition, 65% of all Lizardfolk live completely underwater, which is crazy to think about as no other lizard can spend more than 15 minutes under water at a time. It’s also horrifying to think that all those captured humanoids will probably drown before the great feasts of the Lizardfolk, which is a shame because the Lizardfolk have been cooking all day! Looking at the mechanics of the Lizardfolk, they are humanoid creatures that are much stronger than many of the other creatures in that catergory. Their AC of 5 puts them in the same league as ogres and giants, but their Hit Dice are on the low side making them pretty susceptible to being wiped out in low numbers. Where they thrive is the number of attacks and the amount of damage they can do in a single round. Three attacks is a whole lot of ass kicking in this edition and with the potential to do a maximum of 14 points of damage in a round, the Lizardfolk would make quite a fearsome opponent. These two factors, along with the fact that you will be running into 10-40 of them at a time, make these creatures the party would not want to encounter at lower levels… especially if they were invited over for dinner.
Basic D&D - Lizardfolk
Armor Class: 5 Hit Dice: 2 + 1 Move: 60' (120' swim) Attacks: 1 weapon Damage: By weapon + 1 No. Appearing: 2-8 Save As: Fighter: 2 Morale: 12 Treasure Type: D Alignment: Neutral XP Value: 25
The Lizardfolk is introduced in the Basic Set (1977) and later makes appearances in the updated Basic Sets that are released in 1981 and 1983. If the Lizardfolks could be stripped down and made even more boring, we aren’t sure how you could do it. The descriptive paragraph is filled with simple sentences that provide less flavor than the original edition and simply describes the Lizardfolk as man-shaped but with a lizard head and a lizard tail. Furthermore, they are considered semi-intelligent and enjoy eating humans in great feasts. Now, it isn’t all bad for the Lizardfolk in this edition as they are finally shown a little love as they gain a +1 bonus to their damage. Though they no longer have their multiple attacks and instead only have a single weapon attack, so we guess it makes some sense to give them a boost to their damage even if it isn’t as awesome as having three attacks and tearing apart that troublesome magic-user. This is the first edition of Dungeons & Dragons that players can play as a Lizardfolk thanks to Dragon Magazine #185 (September 1992). In the magazine we are introduced to the Squamous Ones; lizard men, gator men, and the cay-men, all of whom can be used as player characters. These playable reptile creatures all played a role in episode 32 of the Voyage of the Princess Ark, an old series in Dragon Magazine. Without going down the rabbit hole of experimental player characters and rules, just remember that some races were treated more like classes than as just races. If you choose to play as a Lizardfolk, you would be leveling up in a Lizardfolk class though you could multiclass into actual classes like magic-user or fighter… it was just really difficult and there were a lot of limitations. With that being said, out of all three of the lizardkin, the gator men are the by far the strongest and intimidating. Their physical attributes were high, they had more hit points, but their mental stats were the lowest out of any of them. After the gator men, in terms of strength, came the lizard men followed by the cay-men. The cay-men were known for being smart, and by that we mean they don’t have a negative bonus to their intelligence, while the lizard men were middle of the road at best between the two others. In Dragon Magazine #186 (October 1992), we are introduced to another race of playable lizardfolk in the next chapter of the Voyage of the Princess Ark. The chameleon men, also known as the wallara, are pretty weak like the lizard men, but they have a special talent that makes them pretty awesome. The chameleon man can use a Vanish ability, allowing them to disappear from sight, or they could teleport as per the dimension door spell… so long as they passed an Intelligence check which seems a bit mean. Regardless of the intelligence check, that’s a pretty awesome racial ability!
AD&D - Lizardmen
Frequency: Rare No. Appearing: 10-40 Armor Class: 5 (4) Move: 6” // 12” Hit Dice: 2+1 % in Lair: 30% Treasure Tpe: D No. of Attacks: 3 Damage/Attack: 1-2/1-2/1-8 Special Attacks: See Below Special Defenses: Nil Magic Resistance: Standard Intelligence: Low (average) Alignment: Neutral Size: M (about 7 feet tall) Psionic Ability: Nil
The Lizardfolk first appears in the Monster Manual (1977) and things are looking up for this edition. Unlike in Basic D&D, which AD&D ran alongside, we are given a full paragraph about the Lizardfolk, about their lairs, and well… It doesn’t paint the Lizardfolk in a great light… At least they get artwork in this edition and again, it looks pretty good! We suppose you have a choice in these early editions, good art or good lore - not both. The lizardfolk don’t get a lot of new lore, even though there is more information provided. The books now clarify that they are semi-aquatic and that, while they prefer to live underwater, they live in underwater caves that are not submerged. They love to kill and capture humans, bringing back bodies and slaves to their underwater realms and then holding rude feasts. We aren’t sure what they mean by rude, but we suppose the Lizardfolk can be considered rude if they don’t ask permission to eat you first. If you ever encounter Lizardfolk above the water, they live in small huts and these are the ‘evolved’ Lizardfolk who are more intelligent. These Lizardfolk wield crude weapons like shields, barbed darts, and javelins that they use to attack from range, and then run into the melee with their clubs. There is no mention of a changed diet, so we must assume that they still enjoy the taste of humans and have no problems with attacking villages and eating all the inhabitants. The first variant for the Lizardfolk, the Lizard King, is introduced in 1981 and is found in the Fiend Folio. The Lizard King is a ruler of a large tribe of Lizardfolk and are taller, stronger, more intelligent, and described as more human-like. They could be found near their watery lairs and one of the few ways of actually seeing one was being offered as part of their weekly sacrifice where the Lizard King will then devour you. Every week, the Lizard King would demand two humans to munch on, if those humans weren’t available the Lizard King would then choose four Lizardfolk and eat them… which we feel like creates a bit of an unhealthy working environment. The next bit of information about the Lizard King is, not only do they have a large tribe of Lizardfolk who bring them humans to eat every week but also they wield a powerful trident that can skewer enemies and deals some real nasty damage. The description goes on to state that there is some sort of magical connection between a Lizard King and their trident, as no one else can use the trident as effectively as the Lizard King and that no one else gains the benefits of using the trident unless you are a Lizard King. This seems like a missed opportunity for some cool lore, but the description comes to an abrupt end, which is a real shame but we aren’t too surprised as the Lizardfolk just doesn’t get any love in these editions.
2e - Lizardfolk
Climate/Terrain: Tropical, sub-tropical and temperate swamp Frequency: Rare Organization: Tribal Activity Cycle: Any Diet: Special Intelligence: Low (5-7) Treasure: D Alignment: Neutral No. Appearing: 8-15 (1d8+7) Armor Class: 5 Movement: 6, Sw 12 Hit Dice: 2+1 THAC0: 19 No. of Attacks: 3 Damage/Attack: 1-2/1-2/1-6 Special Attacks: Nil Special Defenses: Nil Magic Resistance: Nil Size: M (7’ tall) Morale: 14 XP Value: 65, Patrol Leader 65, Subleader 120, War leader 270, Shaman (3rd) 175, Shaman (5th) 650, Shaman (7th) 975.
The Lizardfolk made their second edition debut in the Monstrous Compendium Volume One (1989) and then reprinted in the Monstrous Manual (1993). In typical 2e fashion, we are given a lot more lore about the Lizardfolk though a lot of the information is just rehashed from the previous edition but with more colorful language. Also, their artwork in the Monstrous Compendium looks… fine? They look a bit like they ran into the wall and broke their snout, but it's passable which only further proves our point. Good lore or good art, can't have both. Much like before, the Lizardfolk are tall, strong, and have below-average intelligence. They don’t really use weapons unless they are ‘advanced’ Lizardfolk and like to live next to the water or under the water in their caves. A key difference is that now they are omnivores and that they are only ‘likely to prefer human flesh to other foods.’ This is of great relief to anyone who isn’t a human as now, maybe, just maybe, you can interact with them without them carrying you off to their cave for more rude feasts. What other information is pretty interesting and helps to flesh out this monster. When fighting, they aren’t great at tactics and typically just rush in hoping to overpower their opponents. To make matters worse, if they are hungry, there is a chance they will stop for a quick snack of dead human on the battlefield, allowing their quarry to retreat, regroup and reinforce. They are distracted by shiny things too, and we have decided to skip past the easy blonde joke here. Despite their lack of coordination or tactics, they do have several tiers within their society like shamans, priests, patrol leaders, and chieftains. The shamans and priests have additional hit points and have access to priest abilities like spellcasting. Patrol leaders are even beefier and are used as the bodyguards of the Lizard King who is at the top of the food chain and will lead tribes up to 150 Lizardfolk strong. Of course, if the Lizard King doesn’t get their weekly sacrifice of two people, they eat four Lizardfolk which it specifies is their bodyguard… which seems like a bad idea, why not eat the peasant Lizardfolks? You have way more commoners than bodyguards. We also start to get a little better idea of the physiology of these creatures as they can vary in color from green to brown to gray. Tails can be up to 4 feet long and, while they cannot be used to grab any sort of object, it does seem like its a missed opportunity for a tail attack. Like all lizards, Lizardfolk are hatched from eggs but we strongly encourage you to not eat the eggs as they are described as bitter. The last thing we learn is the question burning on everyone’s mind how do you figure out if the Lizardfolk you’ve been hitting on all night is male or female? The answer is: You don’t know unless you ask. We recommend asking from a safe distance with lots of blonde, dead human bodies in the way. If you wanted to play as a Lizardfolk, you are in luck as the Spelljammer campaign setting provides character information in The Complete Spacefarer's Handbook (1992). What is interesting is that if you wish to play as a Lizardfolk, you lose some of the natural abilities and flaws that the normal Lizardfolk has, though you do get a few bonuses. You don’t gain a bonus to your Strength, on the other hand, you don’t get a penalty to your Intelligence, which is nice. You have natural armor, you can wield a shield and you can only wear armor that would reduce your AC below 5, like plate mail. Of course, getting custom armor will cost you twice as much then for a human as we can only assume blacksmiths find it hard to add in a tailpiece for you… or they don’t like your kind because you ate their brother. One of those. Speaking of eating people, you no longer have a bite attack. Instead, you are given a tail attack which is… well, we support having a tail attack but we guess biting people is considered uncivilized. The last bit of awesomeness for your Lizardfolk character is you now have infravision which helps you see in the dark, which is the first time this controversy will come up. Apparently, in the Forgotten Realms specific lore, Lizardfolk has darkvision but they lose it the moment any information is talked about in a setting neutral book. The Lizardfolk and their information are further refined as a playable character race in The Complete Book of Humanoids (1993). It is here that you get the first real information on how a Lizardfolk should be played when you decide that being an elf just won’t do, why be the eaten when you could be the eater? Lizardfolk have a totally different mindset than other humanoid types, looking at things in a very black and white, food or not food type of way. Civilization as a concept is beyond them, so traveling to and spending time in a city will be a foreign and overwhelming experience for them. Fiercely independent, they might not fit into the party setting very well but can be forgiven when they wipe out a horde of kobolds by themselves. They are still extremely brutal and cruel on the battlefield, so sometimes it may just be best to get out of the way and watch the bodies fly. Another reason to back away is that when shiny stuff or dead bodies appear in battle, Lizardfolk must make a successful Wisdom save or get distracted, and even stop for a little snack of halfling. Considering most combat results in someone or something dying, be ready with those Wisdom checks. Furthermore, we learn that for a Lizardfolk, skincare is an essential part of your adventuring day and you must moisturize every day or you start getting sick and dehydrated. If you spend too long without submerging your body in water, you dry out and die. On the flip side, you start with two weapon proficiencies, which means you are the advanced Lizardfolk and not just the hilly-billy Lizardfolk who don’t use weapons and have no intelligence. More lizard-kin are introduced in this edition, though many of them claim to have no relationship to the Lizardfolk. We are introduced to agrutha, crocodillians, varanids, geckonids, tokay and the iguanid in the Dragon Magazine #268 (2000) though none bear many resemblances to the Lizardfolk but rather are considered subspecies or apart from them. One of the few kin to actually be related to the Lizardfolk are the Gator Men from the Monstrous Compendium Mystara Appendix (1994) and a horrifying secret is exposed. The Gator Men were once Lizardfolk that were magically experimented on by a wizard who was trying to give them alligator properties. Some of the wizard’s Gator Man prototypes escaped into a nearby swamp and quickly reproduced, wiping out all other predators in their area. Gator Men hate Lizardfolk and will do everything in their power to destroy and kill every last one of them if they learn of a Lizardfolk tribe.
3e/3.5e - Lizardfolk
Medium Humanoid(Reptilian) Initiative +0 / HP 2d8+2 (11 hp) Armor Class 15 (+5 Natural) or 17 (+5 natural, +2 heavy shield), touch 10, flat-footed 15 Speed 30 ft. (6 squares) Base Attack/Grapple: +1/+2 Attacks: Claw +2 melee (1d4+1) or club +2 melee (1d6+1) or javelin +1 ranged (1d6+1) Full Attack: 2 claws +2 melee (1d4+1) and bite +0 melee (1d4); or club +2 melee (1d6+1) and bite +0 melee (1d4); or javelin +1 ranged (1d6+1) Space/Reach: 5ft./5 ft. Special Attacks: None Special Qualities: Hold breath Saves: Fort +1, Ref +43 Will +0 Abilities: Str 13, Dex 10, Con 13, Int 9, Wis 10, Cha 10 Skills: Balance +4, Jump +5, Swim +2 Feats: Multiattack Climate/Terrain: Temperate Marshes Organization: Gangs (2-3), Band (6-10 plus 50% noncombatants plus 1 leader of 3rd-6th level), or tribe (30-60 plus 2 lieutenants of 3rd-6th level and 1 leader of 4th-10th level) Challenge Rating: 1 Treasure: 50% coins; 50 % goods: 50% items Alignment: Usually neutral Advancement: By character class Level Adjustment: +1
The Lizardfolk makes its third edition debut in the Monster Manual (2000/2003) and is the first edition where the term Lizardfolk is used, replacing the term Lizardmen permanently. To quickly cover the normal parts of our scaly friends; they are organized into tribes, they are a cruel and vicious opponent on the battlefield, and they still live in swamps and marshes. You may notice the fact that their favorite meal of 'you' is not on that list, that's because the Lizardfolk will eat anything and it's only a malicious rumor that they prize human flesh above all else, they just happen to kill a lot of humans and eat them. They’d eat anyone, they aren’t picky. Another change is that they no longer speak Lizardfolk but rather draconic as they now can be found in the employ of dragons. Societal structure is detailed just a little bit more, giving a tiny more depth to the creature. A tribe exists to eat and perpetuate, and they will do whatever is necessary to make sure these needs are met. Sure, Lizardfolk can hunt and fish like other humanoid races, but when there is a village of humans nearby, you can bet they will be sending out raiding parties and having grilled human for dinner whenever possible. This primitive need for survival has tribes uniting to fight a common foe, even if that foe is another, larger Lizardfolk tribe. It will occasionally drive them to serve more powerful creatures such as dragons, cause in the mind of the Lizardfolk, it is better to serve than to die. The tribe is set up in a very simple manner - the strong rule the weak, and it’s a man’s world in the Lizardfolk kingdom. This stays with the concept of the powerful rule and the weak serve. The shaman is still alive and well in the Lizardfolk society, acting as a councilor for those in charge, providing insight and knowledge, we expect most of the insight revolves around food. The shaman, along with the rest of the Lizardfolk, now has a deity to pray to, as we are introduced to the patron deity of Lizardfolk, Semuanya. Not surprisingly, Semunya’s primary focus is on the survival and propagation of its charges, once again sticking with the common theme of the Lizardfolk; eat, propagate, and eat some more. The Lizardfolk appears as a player character race for the Forgotten Realms setting in the Races of Faerûn (2003) and again, they gain darkvision while existing in the Forgotten Realms. Beyond gaining the ability to make three attacks with their claws and bite, there is nothing new when it comes to being a Lizardfolk as a player character. The next month in April we are introduced to the Monster Manual 3 (2003) and with it, two new types of Lizardfolk come to ruin everyone’s day. The Blackscale Lizardfolk is a massive brute of a Lizardfolk who specializes in pummeling you into the ground and then eating the tenderized meat. Blackscales are large and their presence makes even the tallest Lizardfolk look small as they are typically around 9 feet tall as opposed to the 7 foot Lizardfolk. After the Blackscales are the Poison Dusk Lizardfolk who go in the opposite direction from their Lizardfolk ancestors and are tiny, reaching a max of 5 feet tall and 50 pounds. They specialize in being sneaky, attacking from range, and using poison to bring down larger opponents for the purpose of dinner. As we are always excited to check out new old rulebooks we’ve never used before, it was exciting to find out that Lizardfolk have their own chapter in the Serpent Kingdoms (2004), though it is centric to the Forgotten Realms setting. There we find out more about asabis, firenewts, khaastas, troglodytes, and trens, but it is the Lizard King and Queen that we were excited about. These creatures are now half-Lizardfolk, half-fiend. A Lizard King resembles a common Lizardfolk, but gets to be even scarier by having demonic features, such as glowing red eyes, extra-long arms, long fangs, or additional scaly frills. They are despised in Faerun since, not surprisingly, they view humans, elves, dwarves, and almost all other humanoid races as food, not as allies or neighbors. Remember how we’ve always said that the Lizardfolk can be cruel and mean? Well, the Lizard King combines the worst traits of Lizardfolk and demons, making them brutal overlords of a tribe, but their tribe means everything to them and they take great care of its members. They use their vision, intelligence and sheer force of will that comes with being half-fiend, to transform a simple savage tribe into a stable civilization that can endure for many generations. We are also provided information about some of the poisons Lizardfolk use like the blue frog paste, which sounds like a powerful form of LSD, but in fact, it is a toxic oil that can be applied to weapons and causes paralysis. The second is the rather boringly named sleep poison, which renders the victim unconscious for a few hours. Dragon Magazine #335 (September 2005) brings us the ecology of the Lizardfolk, unfortunately, the article is a combination of all the previous editions information, presented in a colorful description, and provides only a few new pieces of information. Religion plays a much more important part in the lore and creation of the Lizardfolk, as the article opens with a section on their goddess, Semunya and the origins of the Lizardfolk. Semuanya was a primitive lesser god who thought only about food and survival while her mate, Kecuala, was an intelligent creature that spent its time doing little physically, as it was trapped in its own philosophical thoughts about the world. One day, Kecuala split itself into two creatures, one male and one female, allowing it to put into action the deep thinking that it had been doing all these years. These two Kecualas were the first Lizardfolk and Semunya took the initiative with them and set them up in an environment where they could hunt and multiply, holding out hope that Kecuala would finally stop thinking so much, merge back into one being, and rejoin Semunya. Building on the tribal/communal system of the Lizardfolk, we do find out that each tribe has a community-style hatchery where all the eggs are kept until little lizard children erupt from their shells. Lizardfolk reach maturity by 2 years of age, skipping those awkward teenage years and for the brief two years of being young, they are raised by the tribe as a whole and not by individual parents. The last of the Lizardfolks are introduced in the Monster Manual IV (2006) where we are introduced to the Dark Talon tribe of Lizardfolk and provided an example lair for them. They are similar to the Lizardfolk but have been toughened by alchemical infusions of black dragon blood and seek to take over and control the lands of everyone else. They are brutal, mean and vicious but they don’t provide much information on the whole of the Lizardfolk race but rather how their specific tribe operates but, that doesn’t mean there isn’t anything in there to learn. We learned a very important lesson, if you find a massive wasp the size of a horse, you can totally ride on it with a massive lance. Yup, the Dark Talon tribe has a small troop of Wasp Riders who wield lances and charge into battle on their battle wasps. We aren’t sure that the riders are really needed as seeing wasps large enough to be ridden by Lizardfolks already scares us more than a Lizardfolk.
4e - Lizardfolk
Greenscale Hunter - Level 4 Skirmisher Medium natural humanoid (reptile) / XP 175 Initiative +6 / Senses Perception +8 HP 54; Bloodied 27 AC 17; Fortitude 15, Reflex 14, Will 13 Speed 6 (swamp walk) Spear (standard; at-will) ✦ Weapon +9 vs. AC; 1d8+3 damage Sidestep Attack (standard; at will) ✦ Weapon The lizardfolk shifts and make a melee basic attack. Alignment Unaligned / Languages Draconic Skills Athletics +10, Nature +8 Str 17(+5) | Dex 15 (+4) | Wis 12 (+3) | Con 14 (+4) | Int 8 (+1) | Cha 8 (+1) Equipment light shield, spear
The Lizardfolk is introduced in the Monster Manual (2008) and we are provided with stat blocks for different roles that a Lizardfolk could be in a tribe like a shaman or a hunter, as well as information about the Blackscales, the massive brutes of Lizardfolk. While the lore doesn’t go very deep, we at least have some pretty great art, especially when compared to the previous Monster Manuals, so 4e has that going for it at least. The first type of Lizardfolk presented are the smaller and more common Greenscales who are, while not of the highest intelligence, are still considered the intelligent and advanced Lizardfolks who become shamans and leaders of their tribe. The next type are the Blackscales who go around smashing and pulverizing creatures and are often intermingled into the Greenscale tribe. Occasionally the Blackscales will be part of an opposing tribe, but the text reveals that Blackscales just aren’t smart enough to be the leader and, while Lizardfolk believe the strongest should lead, that doesn’t mean that the Lizardfolk are willing to trust a dumb brute with the welfare of their tribe. There are also a few tidbits of lore that you can pick up on in their description like halflings are too small to bother eating, since they are the preferred humanoid trading partner for the Lizardfolk. Also, that Lizardfolk would occasionally serve dragons, though more often than not they would have servitors of their own like behemoths, crocodiles, and drakes. And finally, that Lizardfolk do not worship any gods but rather they elevate their tribal leader into a living deity. This Lizardfolk becomes the King Lizard and is rumored to have been tainted by primordial or demonic forces to make them so unnaturally strong and powerful. The next group of Lizardfolk is brought out of the swamps in the Monster Manual 2 (2009) and they are known as the Poisonscales and, as their name might suggest, they really like poisoning creatures. The Poisonscales are a type of Lizardfolk that is less strong and healthy, though far more intelligent and are quite affluent with traps, ambushes, and using their naturally produced poisons to kill creatures and then eat them. These Lizardfolk come in a variety of roles from the magus that can hurl poison magic at their enemies, to the Poisonscale Collector that has the all-important task of gathering food and the plants the Lizardfolk eat to exude their poison, to the poisonless Poisonscales Myrmidons who cannot produce poison but makes up for it with being stronger and having thicker hides. The Poisonscales are a slightly weaker group of Lizardfolks, which is hard to believe as the Greenscales are so low powered to begin with. The only true threat coming from the Lizardfolks in this edition is that a tribe consists of over a hundred of them, and when its just you and your 3 best friends wandering the swamps and being filled with tasty human meat, well… maybe you can kill enough of the Lizardfolk so they don’t have to share their meal with others in the tribe.
5e - Lizardfolk
Medium humanoid (lizardfolk), neutral Armor Class 15 (natural armor, shield) Hit Points 22 (4d8 + 4) Speed 30 ft., swim 30 ft. STR 15 (+2) | DEX 10 (+0) | CON 13 (+1 ) | INT 7 (-2) | WIS 12 (+1) | CHA 7 (-2) Skills Perception +3, Stealth +4, Survival +5 Senses passive Perception 13 Languages Draconic Challenge 1/2 (100 XP) Hold Breath. The lizardfolk can hold its breath for 15 minutes. Multiattack. The lizardfolk makes two melee attacks, each one with a different weapon. Bite.Melee Weapon Attack: +4 to hit, reach 5 ft., one target. Hit: 5 (1d6 + 2) piercing damage. Heavy Club.Melee Weapon Attack: +4 to hit, reach 5 ft., one target. Hit: 5 (1d6 + 2) bludgeoning damage. Javelin.Melee or Ranged Weapon Attack: +4 to hit, reach 5 ft. or range 30/120 ft., one target. Hit: 5 (1d6 + 2) piercing damage. Spiked Shield.Melee Weapon Attack: +4 to hit, reach 5 ft., one target. Hit: 5 (1d6 + 2) piercing damage
Lizardfolk can be found in the Monster Manual (2014) and with it comes a nice, chunky bit of lore on these Lizardfolk, though it mostly repeats the previous edition. One thing that has been missing the last few editions is finally back, and that’s that they have a hankering for human flesh, even if they are omnivores. It’s no longer considered a mean and unfounded rumor that they like the taste of you, though the lore doesn’t stop at them eating you. These Lizardfolk are willing to forge alliances with others like humans, halflings, dwarves, and more, once they have these alliances made they are fiercely loyal to the other ‘tribe’ and we hope that means they won’t eat you at that point. Though one shouldn’t expect to have too many interactions with Lizardfolk as these creatures are fiercely xenophobic, hunting and killing anyone who trespasses on their territory. They rarely leave their territory, as they might become the hunted as opposed to the hunter, and that is something they actively dislike. Though, that isn’t to say they never leave their territory, if a dragon, most likely a black dragon, shows up in their swamp, the Lizardfolk will begin offering it gifts and immediately begin serving the dragon. The dragon may be a nice ruler, watching over its Lizardfolk with an eye to protection… or they may be horrible and send out raids of Lizardfolk to help it build up its treasure hoard. Now, let’s say you get eaten by the Lizardfolk because you were thinking you could walk on their territory and set up a trade agreement and they thought you’d taste better than the terms you were offering. You might, in this situation, be worried that your bones and other inedible bits won’t be treated with the proper respect you think they should be treated, but don’t worry as the Lizardfolk now love to craft crude jewelry and tools from bones of their meal! Lizardfolk will often craft clubs, shields, darts, and other weapons from the bones of creatures they have killed, seeing no point in good materials going to waste just because the previous inhabitant of those body parts are no longer using them. Really, they are just being responsible hunters and using every part of the kill! In Volo’s Guide to Monsters (2016), the Lizardfolk is presented as a playable race, along with other favorites such as the goblin and kobold. One of the best parts about the Lizardfolk being made a playable race is that we are given an in-depth look into the essence of being a Lizardfolk and how such strange creatures act and think. A Lizardfolk’s mindset is described as alien, but not in the sense that they are from some distance world from the Spelljammer setting, instead, they are described as cold and calculating with few emotions as we would know them. This doesn’t mean that you should roleplay your new Lizardfolk fighter as some hissing jerk, but as a character that genuinely doesn’t understand why other creatures are horrified when they want to fire up the campfire and celebrate the life of a fallen comrade by roasting and eating their corpse. The existence of a Lizardfolk is centered on doing things that make them feel good and avoiding things that would cause them pain or discomfort. A Lizardfolk doesn’t have emotions that control its fight or flight reflex but instead reacts accordingly to the situation. If it is going against a powerful opponent, it doesn’t run away in fear but rather realizes that the opponent is best to leave alone due to how fearsome it is. If the Lizardfolk finds a magic item that provides a great benefit, it doesn’t gain pleasure from that item but realizes it makes life easier and must protect this magic item so others don’t take it away. The mindset of a Lizardfolk is assigning traits to creatures and objects and reacting accordingly to that trait as they don’t hold grudges or allow rage to overcome them. The last book we will look at for 5th edition is the Ghosts of Saltmarsh (2019), though it originally came out in 1982 for AD&D, and in it is an adventure focused around these creatures. In the adventure, a party of adventurers is tasked with going to a Lizardfolk lair and investigating the Lizardfolk and seeing if they are responsible for the recent attacks on the city. This is a roleplaying heavy adventure and allows a group of adventurers to explore the lair of Lizardfolks without using violence to get a peek into every room. This adventure provides helpful tips about the mindset of a Lizardfolk and helps to explain that the way they communicate can be quite unsettling or unnerving to those not used to such an alien mind. Even though they have been around since the beginning of Dungeons & Dragons, and that they have such an overwhelming presence in our legends, the Lizardfolk still have a lot of untapped potential. While they appear in a wide variety of adventures and core rulebooks, they rarely change and when they do so it is incremental. Other humanoids that have been around since the beginning have seen endless amounts of time and effort put into their backgrounds, while the Lizardfolk haven’t been so lucky. They are still the same highly mistrusted brutes that they were before, and maybe that’s all they will ever be as everyone needs a monster to fight. Maybe one day we will see new sub-races or more development on their story as well as their culture. We certainly hope so, as the Lizardfolk deserves more recognition than the few adventures and lore that they currently have. Have a monster you'd like to see explored throughout the editions? Let us know in the comments!
(With actual Sakurai interview sources cited) ... Analyzing Sakurai's previous interviews and current characters to figure out who all is in DLC wave 2.
Disclaimer:A lot of this is speculation, based onactualcharacter releases or quotes from Sakurai. Feel free to share further information or disagree completely. I think speculation can be fun and I'd love to have other people's input. tl;dr - There isnt one. Sorry. :(
After Byleth dropped, I was curious. I wanted to dig to see if there was a specific method to Sakurai's madness when choosing a character for Smash. I did a lot of article hunting and wanted to share some of the more relevant, blatant stuff I found interesting. And since Sakurai said they already have the next 6 DLC characters decided on, it'd be pretty dope if we, as a community, could guess/deduce who they could be.
Some quotes and sources:
Some sources from Sakurai directly on how characters are decided along with some highlights noted:
"For example Greninja, even before his name was decided I received several illustrations. I took them home in the evening and around midnight I had already done all his actions, normal moves, special moves and pose-pictures and sent them around asking "What do you think?"."
"Simply retelling stories from the past would make me sound like a doddering old man rambling to a disinterested crowd, so I think it’s necessary to strike a fair balance between the past and present."
"I also look ahead to see if there are promising-looking characters from other games that are still in the early stages of development."
"With all of that in mind, characters with no future – in other words, ones from series with little chance of a new release going forward – are difficult to justify unless thereʼs some special aim I have in mind. This doesn't apply for alternate costumes or models for existing characters, though."
"We do things like base our consideration on the results of the Smash ballot, and also balance things out so that there’s a difference in the types of fighters."
"It is a project after all, so we take into consideration things like labor, man-hours, the time in which the title will be sold. We decide on the fighters from the very early planning stage, and from there, we calculate and begin production. We don’t add or remove any characters during the project."
"By the way, as for Incineroar, during our planning stage we knew that a new Pokémon game was coming, so we intentionally kept one spot open for that, and we decided which character to create once we received more info on the title."
All the info there is bulleted and cited in the comment there and easy to read, so I won't quote it here, but its full of insight.
1st and 3rd party reps:
On 1st party reps:
There are a couple of things to look at. Importantly, a 1st party character doesn't appear to follow 3rd party character "decision rules". For 1st party, it just appears to have to be interesting in gameplay, not popularity. (See Ice Climbers, Pit, Palutena, and Piranha Plant in Smash) Regardless of how easy it is for you to recognize them as an OG or hardcore you are as a gamer, people who played Smash still didn't know who Samus was. They don't have to make contracts for their own IP, obviously. They literally left a slot open during development for a Pokemon they hadn't decided on yet (see Sakurai 2018 quote below). I'd argue that DLC FP1 was locked down, and being prepped / iterated on before SSB5 was even released. That appears to be why Xenoblade and ARMS wasn't represented. I'd argue that Byleth was already known to be coming in game due to how every major worldwide release FE game has a rep. However, I wager for DLC FP2, all bets are off for first party. I wouldn't be surprised to see a rep from either Xenoblade and/or ARMS.Twintelle pls I also cannot think of a better "final" character with DLC FP2 than Waluigi. He is 1st Party like Byleth, and would be the perfect "final" note of a character. Trolling, derpy, Waluigi. I can't think of any "rules" for how Nintendo chooses characters. There are probably "guidelines" or something like:
The character currently must be able to translate well into Smash - with any needed development.
Popularity helps a character, as long as it has uniqueness.
Have a game that has come out within a recent timeframe for promotion of said game. (Hence, the FE and Pokemon every generation.)
There are obviously exceptions to this (Ice Climbers and Kid Icarus, for example), but I feel like even how they update some characters (BotW Link), it helps to show this. Nintendo has stated that the profit of a series that gets repped in Smash sees increases dramatically. (Because... of course.) -
On 3rd party reps:
If you look at the roster, all 3rd party characters do not appear to be solely chosen based on being "badasses", "fits good", or "popularity", but rather be representatives of game franchises, or such influential characters that represent gaming as a whole. I don't think it has much to do with individual companies outside of not wanting to stack multiple IPs from a single developepublisher in the same DLC fighter's pass. Let's see what each fighter represents to gaming as a whole.
Pac-Man - THE mascot of coin-op pretty much worldwide.
Sonic - Genre defining. Literally an entire console mascot.
Ryu / Ken- SFII is granddaddy of fighting games. (I think Ken got in because of his history as the raw, base reference to the very nature of "Player 1 vs Player 2" in a fighting game, otherwise he would have just been an echo fighter.)
Hero - DQ is the Granddaddy of the JRPG genre, regardless of Japan's inherent love for its success. (Really only a "weak" series in NA.)
Terry - Neo Geo fighters are often considered as or more popular than Street Fighter II everywhere in the southern hemisphere, and also brought Super Moves into the genre as well as a huge cast and 3v3. Terry might as well be SNK's mascot.
Snake - MGS (especially for PS1) changed 3D action, voice acting, and story telling as we know it. Also, Kojima.
Mega Man - Jump-and-shoot man.. perfected. After MM2 came out, everyone tried to copy their formula.
Belmont - Not even "Genre defining." Literally, Castlevania is more a genre than a game. The whole -vania bit in "metroidvania."
Cloud - Is there a more played / beloved / sold RPG in the world than FF7?
Banjo & Kazooie - A love letter to Mario 64, turned into pretty much the template for the modern collect-a-thon game formula.
Joker - Persona got big, man. Like, real big. In a way, modern Persona reps blends both current modern JRPGs and also the anime style games in a way not done before. Definitely represents the idea that modern games can be not only in the game, but that legacy is not the only reason why a character gets an invite.
Note on Bayo - I consider her a Nintendo IP since they pretty much foot the bill for Bayo 2 to be a thing.
Every 3rd party character on the list represents SOMETHING in gaming larger than just "they are cool." Like, I'd argue that Persona and Banjo are the weakest (worldwide) 3rd party reps as far as influence on the gaming industry as a whole. And they are HUGELY loved and have a place in gaming history. If you couple that with raw popularity, general look of the character, and expansive move opportunities, its not hard to see why they got in. So, if there were a set of "guidelines" (?) based on the pattern of 3rd party characters that came before shown above, and what he has said in interviews, I'd argue:
The character should be the main mascot/representative of a series or genre. There doesn't appear to be a secondary character. (Ken not withstanding due to what he represents.)
Should have enough unique content or moves in their games to pull from to make the character without changing the nature of the character. (A good example of them making a big deal for that was Sakurai going into how they had exhausted all options for Terry's UAIR, so they made one that fit.) They want the character to keep their unique identity without them interfering.
The character currently must translate well into Smash with very minor design development from Nintendo. (Also, not be toxic for gameplay.)
I think popularity of a character or series, or how tied to Nintendo, is what can help Nintendo pick a character after the above is met. Sakurai even mentioned that some unnamed characters couldn't be put in the game due to not meeting a mutual business agreement. (Note: I cant find my source. I think it was an "IwataAsks" featuring Sakurai.... like... back from forever ago.)
On indies:
Look at your indie, now back at that 3rd party list - now back at your indie. Sadly, your indie isnt... - ok you get it. Sakurai does not appear to be against having indies represented, but the total design needs to stand out, more than just artistic design. Cuphead does not have enough varied gameplay to have the some-odd 15 different moves - which is why he is the PERFECT Mii gunner. Sans wouldn't translate over very well as a whole fighter due to the nature of the his game. If the character doesn't have enough to draw on, they might end up developing new moves for the character in a way the developer did not want. Shovel Knight is a great example here as well. His gameplay is very Zelda 2 and has an assortment of tools, but doesn't offer a unique gameplay "hook" or "gimmick" as a 3rd party character. However, clearly he did well on the ballet, as a character he has great polish, and has great fans, so its a no-brainer to have him as the indie assist. (I'd have loved to see him regardless.) These will be a major hurdle as to why I think some characters won't make it or have a significantly harder time getting in.
Arguments for characters:
I don't have much of a horse in this race, so I ain't trying to deconfirm anyone's favorite characters. I'm definitely no expert, nor do I have some kind of inside source. I'm just trying to figure what I believe is reasonable speculation based on what Sakurai has said interviews and put in the game.
1st Party:
New Pokemon from Sw / Sh
Waluigi (if he doesn't make it, I'd argue him and Daisy get their own character slots next game)
Xenoblade
Waddle Dee (This fanbase is very, very serious.)
ARMStwintelle pls
- (Note - I'm going to abide by the same 'no repeat franchises' that's been done so far. So no one like Tails or Chun Li, regardless of their legendary status.)
3rd Party:
Crash - I can't think of a better mascot for the PS1 era than him. Spyro, maybe, but not likely. I never owned a Crash game, but he is super iconic, and everyone knows what his games look like. Anyone old enough to remember PS1 has had the "talk" of who would win Sonic (Dreamcast) vs. Crash (PS1) vs. Mario (N64) in the original Smash64. I'd argue he has the best chance from legacy 3rd party mascots.
Dante - DMC 1 pretty much created the 3rd person combo genre. He has lots of crossovers#Other_appearances) and would fit in game like Bayo did. On an artstyle / script level, DMC changed the industry. He's on Cloud level as far as icon status and has MGS's level of game dynasty. He wouldn't be a surprise to be added.
Heihachi - I'd be shocked if a Tekken character didn't get in the game during DLC 2. Specifically Heihachi. Heihachi has "the hair" and great for Namco. If they were to put a straight up 3D fighting game character in game, I'd be it'd be him. While Virtual Fighter changed development viewpoints, Tekken 1-3 changed arcades.
Phoenix Wright - Honestly, look. He already is in the same fightning game as Dante, but is 3 times as goofy and was one of the most noticable characters on the DS for like.. a decade. Straight up DS royality. I'd say, as long as Nintendo wanted a funny, gag character.
Geno/Arle/Reimu/Steve - Whew. I want you guys to get your boi/girl. I do. I know you all are the most passionate. But based on what Sakurai has stated for development philosophy, it will be tough. They have things working against them. They don't have something close an existing moveset to draw from. (Example: Imagine what would their *air attacks be? What about UP+B?) If they made it in, it'd be as a gift from from Nintendo to fans and it would be taking a spot from someone else (or each other). I do hope you get your character though, if it is one of these. Really. Never seen a character wanted so badly by the community. (Except maybe Shantae.) Speaking of..
Shantae - Whether or not you hate her, she's Nintendo indie royalty since 2002. Even Famitsu stated she has a notable following in Japan as far back as 2015. She also has a major rags to riches history with Nintendo (front page mascot of the DSi eShop for a long time), great sales, a kit that might as well come from a Nintendo 1st party game, and even Ken Sugimori from Pokemon plays Shantae. However, I wouldn't think she is a shoe-in by any means just because she's a great mascot. She's technically a great fit in Smash, but she's got much bigger names to beat out to get a spot.
Rayman - Take a platformer mascot, make his games better over time until his most current one, but the industry doesn't change because of him. His artistic style and platformer history could fit in a platform game, and no matter how excellent a game Rayman Legends is, and boy is it excellent, it hasn't really had much effect on the industry. Another Rayman Legends game though on the Switch... he'd be an A-lister.
Doom SlayeGuy or Master Chief - Doom and what it did for PC gaming is just... well its Mario levels of legendary. And Chief not only defined the Xbox, but FPS on console as well. (Play Halo 1 compared to Goldeneye, and tell me which one feels like modern granddaddy of FPS.) However, translating FPS to 3D-action-party-fighting-game would be tough. Real tough. On an innovation level alone, what would they use for their canon moveset that has already been in all their other games that meets Nintendo's standards and wouldn't be bland besides "shoot guns" and "generic punch"? I could see one of them in game, but I can't see both of them making it in. Kind of goes against Sakurai's "too similar design space" saying.
Ryu Hayabusa - His biggest problem is that he is "generic ninja man" and hasn't had a game in a long time. He doesn't rep DoA, and although Ninja Gaiden has a great legacy and I f'n love the games, but he is like the Nathan Drake of ninjas. I'd argue that Strider Hiryu is a more interesting design and kit more suited to Smash. But still. It's Ninja Gaiden.
Lara Croft - Having a female lead in a game was rare the farther back you go. She might have done well only because of "sex sells" kinds of ads back in the 90s, but she changed the industry from just marketing alone. Not to mention, now she has a dynasty, her reboots are unbelievably good so she is currently relevant. Might have a kit too hard to translate into Smash however.
I wouldn't be surprised if we even have a couple of brand new characters come from nowhere. Lucky from Super Lucky's Tale or maybe a character from Dragalia Lost? Who even knows. If you want my personal opinion, I'd honestly like to see one or two other franchises get secondary characters. Examples: Tails / Knuckles, Tifa, Chun Li, Zero from Megaman X, etc. So many secondary characters that would honestly be incredible additions.
I hope I didn't step on any toes or come across as condescending. I just wanted to share thoughts and have a discussion. Do you guys believe there are any characters we will see (or will not see) when looking at what Sakurai says or has implemented previously?
UPDATE 2: I've done a long term test now for about 1200 races and my predictions using this method are pretty much spot on. Regarding which horse to bet on. As this post states all horses have the same expected value, meaning that the expected long term profit is the same. But here are some differences worth noting:
Horses with lower odds (ie horse 1) will win small amounts more frequently.
Horses with higher odds (ie horse 6) will win larger amounts less frequently.
The profit from horses with lower odds are more "stable" and not affected as much by differences in wins.
The profit from horses with higher odds are more affected by differences in wins. Meaning that if you're lucky and win a bit more than expected the profit will be a lot higher if you bet on horse 6. But at the same time the profit will be a lot lower if you're unlucky and win less than expected.
UPDATE: So I founds this post: https://gtaforums.com/topic/933094-testing-different-inside-track-horse-racing-betting-strategies/page/2/?tab=comments#comment-1070850773 Using the data from those 100 races I tested this strategy and here are the results: https://i.imgur.com/Jh6pWL5.png Even though 100 entries isn't optimal for calculating probability in the long run, I would say it does make this strategy look promising. Inside track - Lets talk strategy I've been seeing a lot of post about the inside track statistics and how to bet to maximize your profit. So I thought I would try to clear some things out. Most of the post talk about win percentages, for example horse #1 wins most often so you should always bet on horse #1. Even though this is true (horse #1 wins most often) only looking at win percentage isn't optimal for maximizing your profit in the long run, it could even result in losing money. What you should look at is expected return and expected value for each race. Doing so you will maximize your profit in the long run and it doesn't matter which horse you're betting on. Before we get started I would like to give credit to this post: https://www.reddit.com/gtaonline/comments/ciuz70/ultimate_gambling_guide_for_gta_online_odds/ I would suggest reading the inside track section in that post but I will try to sum it up and expand on it here. The horse race can be compared to a lottery with 100 tickets where each horse has x number of tickets. How many tickets each horse gets corresponds to the horses return: Tickets: x_tickets = 100 / (1 + return) Example: A horse with a return of 1 (Evens) will have 50 tickets. A horse with a return of 3 will have 25 tickets. A horse with a return of 4 will have 20 tickets. The reason the inside track is profitable is because for some races the sum of all the tickets for each horse is less than 100 and since there has to be a winner each horse gets extra tickets to fill up the empty slots. Example: Lets say there is only the three horses from the previous example in the race: Horse 1: Evens - 50 tickets Horse 2: 3/1 - 25 tickets Horse 3: 4/1 - 20 tickets The sum of all tickets is only 95 (50 + 25 + 20) resulting in 5 empty tickets. This is where the expected return comes in: Expected return: ER = total_tickets / sum(x_tickets) In our example we get ER= 100 / (50 + 25 + 20 ) = 100 / 95 = 105.26...% (The percentage has more digits, but for simplicity I just use "..." rather than type out all digits. This will continue for all examples) To compensate for the empty tickets each horse gets extra tickets using: Actual Tickets: T = x_tickets * ER In our example we get: Horse 1: T = 50 * 105.26...% = 50 * 1.0526... = 52.6... tickets Horse 2: T= 25 * 105.26...% = 26 * 1.0526... = 26.3... tickets Horse 3: T= 20 * 105.26...% = 20 * 1.0526... = 21.1... tickets As we can see each horse got extra tickets and because of this have a higher percent change to win than "intended", this brings us to the next part, expected value. The expected value tells us the expected profit for each bet: Expected value: EV= (Probability to win * profit) - (Probability to lose * loss) where Probability to win = T / total_tickets Probability to lose = 1 - Probability to win Profit = return * bet Loss = bet Example: So for our example we have the following: Using 10000Credits as bet Horse 1 (Evens): Probability to win = 52.6... / 100 = 0.526... Probability to lose = 1 - 0.526 = 0.474... Profit = 1 * 10000 = 10000 Credits Loss = 10000 Credits EV = (0.526 * 10000) - (0.474 * 10000) = 526.3... Credits Horse 2 (3/1): Probability to win = 26.3... / 100 = 0.263... Probability to lose = 1 - 0.263... = 0.737... Profit = 3 * 10000 = 30000 Credits Loss = 10000 Credits EV = (0.263... * 30000) - (0.737... * 10000) = 526.3... Credits Horse 3 (4/1): Probability to win = 21.1... / 100 = 0.211... Probability to lose = 1 - 0.211... = 0.789... Profit = 4 * 10000 = 40000 Credits Loss = 10000 Credits EV = (0.211... * 40000) - (0.789... * 10000) = 526.3... Credits As we can see all horses have a expected value of ~526 Credits. This means that in the long run we expect to make 526 Credits each time we play. We can also see that all horses have the same expected value, meaning that it doesn't matter which horse you bet on. Betting on horse 1 will result in a higher frequency of smaller wins and betting on horse 3 will result in lower frequency of larger wins, but the total profit, in the long run, is still the same. So if we had this exact example and bet on it 1000 time (regardless on what horse we bet on), we would make a expected profit of 526 000 (526 * 1000) Credits. Since the expected value is the same for each horse, a simpler way to calculate it is by just using the expected return: Expected value: EV = (E100 - 1) * bet So in our example we get: EV = (105.2... / 100 - 1) * 10000 = (1.052... - 1) * 10000 = 526.3... Credits Simulations I've done tests and simulations on this. This is the results on betting max (10000 Credits) on 5000 races where: - I was betting on a random horse each race - Only bet on races with a expected return over 140%. Runs: 5000 Average expected return: 154% Wins: 827 (17%) Expected profit: 27 002 298 Credits Profit: 28 370 000 Credits Diff: 1 367 702 Credits (105.07%) (I've done simulations for betting on only horse 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 as well and the differences are insignificant) So how do we use this?
Only bet on races with a expected return over 100%
It doesn't matter which horse you are betting on, as long as you follow step 1
Never bet if both horse 1 and horse 2 are Evens or 2/1, see charts below
If you don't want to calculate the expected return and just go on the rate of Horse 1 and Horse 2 you can follow this chart below: EDIT: The charts doesn't seem to load so I upload it here instead: https://i.imgur.com/T9gEYDD.png This is assuming the worst case scenario for the rest of the horses (Horse 3: 6/1, Horse 4: 6/1, Horse 5: 16/1, Horse 6: 16/1). Green means expected return over 100%, red means expected return below or equal to 100%. The same chart but for the best case scenario (Horse 3: 15/1, Horse 4: 15/1, Horse 5: 30/1, Horse 6: 30/1) is below: EDIT: The charts doesn't seem to load so I upload it here instead: https://i.imgur.com/j8cPPCY.png Good luck on the track! Note:The calculations and simulations in this post are only theoretical and might not represent the actual game. I have played the in game track for about 12 hours using this strategy and from what I can see it does in fact represent the actual game. I currently have the "This feature is not available at this moment. Please come back later"-bug so I can't play. Once this is sorted i will do a long term test to verify that this is correct. I'll post the results when available. Please let me know if any calculations are wrong or if anything needs to be edited.
Saturday June 8, 2019 Belmont Park Race: 3 (12:47PM EST Post) Easy Goer After rattling off 6 straight mostly lopsided wins, Alwaysmining came crashing back down to earth in the Preakness. He appears the best horse in this race but the question is, being 7 for 8 at Laurel and 0 for 5 everywhere else, can he win outside of Laurel?............The speedy Majid is razor sharp right now. Although beating up lesser foes, he has won three straight “on the engine” and looks to be the dominant speed once again in this spot………….Outshine showed zilch in the Wood Memorial last time out after coming within 1 ½ lengths of beating probable Belmont Stakes favorite Tacitus two starts back. The last time I called a Todd Pletcher horse (Vino Rosso) overrated, he promptly went out and won the Gold Cup at Santa Anita, so why not tempt fate again? At 9/5 on the morning line, I think he is being overrated. Race: 4 (1:22PM EST Post) Just a Game Stakes Pound for pound, Rushing Fall is one of the best horses in training today; no how, no way I play against her………………Got Stormy launched an eye catching move to take over the Churchill Downs Turf Distaff at the quarter pole in her last but was run down late by Beau Recall. Also note she finished right behind Rushing Fall in a Grade: 1 two back…logical contender with a better timed ride by “T-Gaf”…………………Beau Recall is in peak form right now while coming from behind to win 3 of her last 4. The closing half mile in her last race (:24.1 and 24.2) of :48.3 was very good and she should be coming late once again here……...Honorable Mentions: Daddy is a Legend always fires her best shot. Although she is just 1 for her last 8, she has hit the board in 8 of 12 in her career…………..Environs is a French invader who was 3 for 6 in her career before breaking slowly in her last. Even with the bad break, she finished within shouting distance of a couple of horses who run back in this race…..long-shot possibility? Race: 5 (2:01 PM EST Post) Ogden Phipps Stakes One of two (Met Mile) sensational races on the card………..I have to stick with Midnight Bisou here. As expected, she seems to be getting better with age. Yes I know, she was in a complete, full out, life or death drive to hold off an oncoming Escape Clause in the Apple Blossom in her last but it must be noted Escape Clause ran the race of her life that day and is no slouch as her 20 for 31 in her career would indicate. The 55 days off since that race and a big work May 28 (5F- :59.4) both are pluses………………Come Dancing is clearly a super talented mare who has taken her game to the next level thus far in 2019. After annihilating her foes in the Distaff at Aqueduct and the Ruffian at Belmont in her last two, she gets a serious tactical advantage as this speedster draws the rail here. This into Mischief mare should come out running at a distance that is well within her scope……………………For the reasons I stated above, the aforementioned Escape Clause looks best of the rest. Race: 6 (2:41 PM EST Post) Jaipur Invitational I feel the same way about World of Trouble as I do about Rushing Fall. He is quietly one of the “fastest” horses currently in training. Unbeaten this year, 8 for 12 in his career and super versatile as he can win from on or off the pace and on dirt or grass. No how, no way I play against him as he looks to be one of, if not the, best bets of the day……………………….Albeit age might be starting to take its toll on the veteran, almost white Disco Partner, he still must be respected until we know that for sure. The seven year old gelding in 0 for 3 this year and did not look good last time out. That said, 9 of his 11 career wins have come on the Belmont “weeds” and a return to what is obviously his most favorite surface and distance (10-6-3-0 at 6F), could wake him up…………………Play “Pin the Tail on the Donkey” with the rest of them as several have a good chance to grab the “show dough”. They include Belvoir Bay, who is in career form right now, Dirty, who took advantage of a ridiculously fast early fractions to beat lesser at Laurel last time out and do not, do not, do not go to sleep on 30-1 shot Diamond Oops, who ran very well in his turf debut while finishing third in a quickly run race. If that’s not enough for you, note the huge rider upgrade/change. I implore you to “watch the board” carefully on this horse. Race: 7 (3:22 PM EST Post) Acorn Stakes Serengeti Empress is the 2019 upset (13-1) winner of the Kentucky Oaks who has speed and draws the rail, which is often a lethal combination. Filly by Alternation has a habit of running “off the screen” but also shows a handful of races where she‘s been beaten by a country mile. She looks best in here but I wouldn’t say she is a mortal lock…………………………I say she doesn’t look like a mortal lock because Guarana could not have looked any better in her debut. Good looking filly, by the wickedly fast Ghostzapper, blew the gate to smithereens in her sloppy tracked debut, opened up eight on the field on the turn and cruised home by a colossal (almost 15 lengths) margin all while scoring a 93 speed figure. Moreover, she came home the last furlong in a solid :06.2 while she was basically in a hammerlock by rider Jose Ortiz, so she could be any kind. Before you run out and bet the mortgage on her, remember she’ll have to go a quarter of a mile further here, is jumping from maidens to a Grade:1 and will most likely get a fast track, three vastly different challenges for her. By the way, does this filly’s situation sound familiar? Another remember Hidden Scroll’s debut? …and we know how he turned out…………………………….Cookie Dough has good speed and shortens up to her optimal distance. Logical contender cutting back to a mile (where she ran the best speed figure of her career), she has hit the board in 7 of 8 tries and “JCC” sees fit to take the mount……………….Honorable Mentions: Ce Ce is intriguing. She came from behind to win her debut, and then ran far and away the highest speed figure (97) of anyone in this field while just missing vs. optionals at Santa Anita. But like Guarana, she takes an enormous step up in class, stretches out and had to ship across the country for this…………….I’m not quite understanding the odds on Queen of Beas (12-1) and Bell’s the One (20-1), who finished within 1 ½ lengths of each other last time out. Both have had excellent starts to their careers and, with both being late runners, they should appreciate the stretch out in distance. Either or both could be a long shot menaces. Race: 8 (4:04PM EST Post) Woody Stephens Stakes Mind Control is having one heck of year while winning two of three (Stakes) races and beating the vaunted Instagrand. He is 2 for 2 at this distance and trainer Greg Sacco has been “beaming” all week long………………………Nitrous presents excellent value at 10-1 as he has come back much improved from last year. This son of Tapit looked sensational while coming “over the top” to win the Bachelor at Oaklawn in his last. Note the speed figures through his last five races (61, 69, 78, 82 and 92) as well………………Complexity makes his long awaited return to the races here. Good looking colt from the Chad Brown barn won the prestigious Champagne Stakes last fall in just his second career start. If that doesn’t signal talent, I’m not sure what does. Anyway, although he’s been training lights out at the notoriously deep Oklahoma Training Track at Saratoga, I’m inclined to think he’ll “need one” before running his best. ………….Honorable Mentions: Honest Mischief finished second in his debut before blowing the doors of a maiden field at Keeneland last time out. Handsome son of Into Mischief was visually impressive winning by “ocho” and scoring a titanic 97 speed figure. Take a huge step up in class but he draws the rail and we know he has speed………………If Wendell Frog duplicates his Gold Feveprep race win last time out in this spot, he could be a force………………After all the route races trying to get Hog Street Hustle to the Kentucky Derby, his connections now cut him back to what very well could be his best game (sprinting) as he is 3-2-1-0 in sprints……………Watch the board on Lexitonian also, who is showing me signs of sitting on a big (long shot) race in his third start off a layoff. Race: 9 (4:46 PM EST Post) Met Mile I would have to go back a long way to remember a race this competitive. Sorry Belmont Stakes fans but this race is far and away the best on the entire card: This race is so deep I’m not sure I’d bet it with your money. However, if I did I’d have to take McKinzie for three reasons. One, he ran the best race of his life last time out and he could use that race to “springboard” to even bigger things. Two, trainer Bob Baffert said he is “doing really, really well” right now…gotta listen to Bob now and again. Three, this distance is “right” in his wheelhouse………………..Mitole has been nothing short of phenomenal for a little over a year now. He took down his first of what I’m sure will be many Grade:1s last time out. Colt by Eskendraya can absolutely run like a deer and can beat you from on or off the pace, making his doubly tough. I have zero concerns about him stretching to mile here as the way he finishes his races scream “I can handle more ground”…………………….If you look up “Horse for the Course” in the dictionary, you will see a picture of Firenze Fire. I mean, does he love this oval or what? He is 3 for 3 in his career over it and his last two efforts were “off the charts” good. They include winning the Dwyer by 9, while getting a mile in 1:33.3 and scoring a 107 BSF and winning the Run Happy by almost 5, getting 6F in 1:08 flat and scoring a 106 BSF. Stats like that makes me dizzy……………Honorable Mentions: You know this is ridiculously tough horse race when I have to put Coal Front, who has good speed if necessary, the rail and has won 7 of 9 starts, including the Godolphin Mile last time out on the other side of the world, and Thunder Snow, who is the only horse in history to win back to back $10 million Dubai World Cups and has run huge in his one and only try on this surface, this far down……………………Prince Lucky probably didn’t care for the mud last timeout as his prior two races were first rate, “trips” speed figure, wins………………Promises Fulfilled is the “speed of the speed” and will be in front as far as he goes. I just think a mile is a little past his best game (sprinting). Race: 10 (5:36PM EST Post) Manhattan Stakes Halfway through the season, Bricks and Mortar is clearly your Older Male Turf Division leader based off of his 3 for 3 record that include a pair of Grade:1 wins. Although this is a very deep field, I expect that trend to continue…………………Olympico overcame quite a bit in winning his U.S debut on May 4 including shipping over from France, having not run in almost 6 months, a bad start, a slow pace and a soft turf course. Yet through all that, this gray gelding was pulling away impressively down the lane that day…………………Robert Bruce, a winner of 8 of 12 in his career including the Arlington Million, probably needed his 2019 debut. The good looking now 5 year old surged to the lead at the top of the stretch in the Fort Marcy but understandably tired down the lane. He should be tighter for this…………………….Honorable Mentions: Qurbaan has been on the board in 14 of 19 turf races and was “right” behind Bricks and Mortar last time out……………………..I hate to put Raging Bull this far down, especially at 10-1 on the morning line. This handsome colt possesses a good late run, is already a Grade: 1 winner, is 5 for 9 in his career and you get the third start off the layoff angle. Bottom line here is he will be in my exotics plays for sure…………………Channel Maker looked good in pulling off the 7-1 upset in the Grade; 1 Man o’ War in his last, but he does have some consistency issues. Race: 11 (6:37 PM EST Post) Belmont Stakes Analysis by Post-Position order, selections below PP#1- Joevia- has run admirably in Stakes races up and down the East Coast but was drilled in his one and only start in a Graded Stakes race. He’s a nice colt and he has worked well of late, but he looks overmatched. PP#2- Everfast- after the three straight abysmal performances, this son of Take Charge Indy came with an enormous late run to grab second in the Preakness at almost 30-1 three weeks ago. Does he build off of that effort or go back to his 1 for 11 struggling career? I say he goes back to struggling. PP#3- Master Fencer- gave his home country of Japan quite a thrill when rallying from dead last to only be beaten by 4 lengths in the Kentucky Derby while way outrunning his almost 60-1 odds that day. So, where does this “masked,” dark horse go from here? He’s worked ok since the Derby and it doesn’t appear the 12 furlongs will be a problem for him. I say he might run big again but he won’t be 60-1 this time. PP#4- Tax- after running very well in the Remsen, Withers and Wood Memorial, this colt showed nothing in the Derby either. Then again, lots of horses over the years have disappointed in the Derby but have come back to run well. That might be the case here for this gelding but, from what I’m gathering, he has not had a good last few days leading up to this race. If you play him, proceed with caution. PP#5- Bourbon War- after a huge late run to finish second in the Fountain of Youth, this colt disappointed in the Florida Derby and Preakness. The addition of blinkers did nothing for him and he goes back to running without them in this spot. This very well bred colt (by Tapit out of Grade: 1 winner My Conquestadory) looks to have cycled out of form to me. If you are looking to play him, I suppose Mike Smith taking the leg up could be a good reason. PP#6- Spinoff- is still another well bred colt (by Hard Spun out of Grade;1 winner Zaftig) who ran very well in his first four starts but did “nada” in the Derby. He probably needs to run the race of his life to be a contender here and he doesn’t look ready to do that just yet. PP#7- Sir Winston- was charging hard, late in a sizzling fast Peter Pan Stakes, the perennial prep race for Belmont, last time out. By my calculation, this son of Awesome Again ran the last five furlongs of the Peter Pan in a turbo charged :58.4, which of course is super impressive. The problem I’m seeing is he hasn’t run a race in his entire nine race career that even comes close to that, so exactly where did that race come from? Whenever I have to ask myself that, it gets me thinking “bounce”. PP#8- Intrepid Heart- is a $750,000 son of super sire Tapit who looked good winning his first two career races. But this gray colt missed the break in the Peter Pan and was clearly tiring in deep stretch in his next and last start. Can he win the Belmont Stakes in just his fourth career start? Unlikely… and also, what’s up with when a reporter ask trainer Todd Pletcher why he was entering this horse, Pletcher said: “Well, he’s bred for the distance” …that’s not exactly a ringing endorsement to me. PP#9- War of Will- after the whole Kentucky Derby debacle, this colt came back strong, with a perfect trip, to win the Preakness impressively. He’ll be the only horse in his crop to run in all three Triple Crown races, and with a win on Saturday he’ll take over as the pro-tem three year old male division leader. I’ve watched him train, he appears to be doing very well and most likely sitting on yet another big race. Obviously a major player here. PP#10- Tacitus- is there another horse, including War of Will, doing any better than this gorgeous gray colt is doing right now? Hardly….The last three efforts from this brilliantly bred colt (by Tapit out of 5 time Grade: 1 winner Close Hatches) include wins in the Tampa Bay Derby, The Wood Memorial (where yours truly was front and center) and then rallied from 16th position to fourth (but put up to third) beaten less than four lengths in the Kentucky Derby while clearly not liking the mud being kicked in his face. His last two works (May 26- 5F- 1:00 flat and June 2- 5F- 1:00.2) were far, far better than they look on paper. As I watched him this train this week, everything I saw signaled to me, his competition better have their “running shoes” on if they are going to beat him. Selections: 1) Tacitus 2) War of Will 3) Master Fencer Honorable Mentions: Tax Race: 13 (8PM EST Post) Brooklyn Invitational You’re to Blame turned the corner in his career last summer as he’s rattled off 5 straight huge efforts, including absolutely flying low down the stretch of the Grade:3 Pimlico Special last time out. Super consistent BSFs and he likes this track………………Rocketry ended last year win back to back Stakes wins and “trips” speed figures. With this being his third start off the layoff and the results of his last two races, this 5 year old by the gorgeous Hard Spun looks set up perfectly for a big race………………………..If you draw a line through Campaign’s race in the Santa Anita Handicap (overmatched), you’ll see that race is sandwiched by two very nice wins including one at this very (marathon) distance……………………Honorable Mentions: Coming into this off of back to back wins, it appears Marconi, a $2 million son of Tapit, is beginning to figure it all out. Not crazy about him drawing the rail but at 12 furlongs it should give his very capable rider a chance to figure things out…………………….Although Sonneteer is just 3 for 25 in his career, you can’t help but to notice his Herculean win when stretch out to 12 furlongs for the first time in his last. That was certainly a signal he loves the distance, now, is he fast enough?………….War Story can pop a big race now and again but he hasn’t won a horse race of any kind in just about 15 months now. By: Gerard Apadula Director of Equine Operations and Development Knights of the Round Stable Thoroughbred Racing Team [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) 2019- Record: 28-91 = 31% 2018- Record: 107-261= 41% 2017- Record: 92-235 = 39% 2016- Record: 91-229 = 40% 2015- Record: 67-180 = 37% 2014- Record: 29-73 = 40% 2013- Record: 20-59= 34% 2012 -Record: 24-73= 33% 2011 –Record: N/A 2010- Record: 24-74= 33%
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Horse racing tips selections 42107 to 1 EW Lucky 15 ...
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